Polar Ice Extent

[4wd]

The recent rapid refreeze shows it's unlikely the ice would ever be absent for more than a few weeks a year - August and September?

I really don't see this having major implications (even if did happen)

Note this late summer period does not have strong sun warming the water either.

[barrel1234]

Did Grey wolf give a prediction of ice extent for later 2010 or 2011? I had a quick scroll back but can't find one unless I missed it.

The reason why I am so interested in his opinion of a prediction is that I know that he is far more knowledgeable in many areas of Ice extent than probably most of us are especially in certain zones, but yet I still disagree with his overall longterm prediction, If you read this GW its not a case for shooting you down if you are wrong but I would really value your prediction, its more of a case of how your side of the science could match up to what will happen this year and next year in the arctic.

[The PIT]

Yes, the Arctic has been ice free before, but, for a mere billionth of a second in the life time of the planet? You see? Anything can be dismissed if one compares it with the lifetime of the planet

Problem is how you approach things. A warm 10 year cycle doesn't mean it's not a natural cycle nether does a 100 year cycle. Not everything is understood about how the climate works. It wasn't long ago that you said the sun had no effect on the climate which I now believe is beginning to be factored in. Until we fully understand how the climate works and what are the factors you cannot say 100% that this present warm up is all man made.

Anyway since there has been a period of an Arctic free from ice can you explain to me and everyone else (Since man wasn't around then) why such a thing cant possibly happen again naturally?

[songster]

Anyway since there has been a period of an Arctic free from ice can you explain to me and everyone else (Since man wasn't around then) why such a thing cant possibly happen again naturally?

*shrug* Maybe it can. That's not actually the point. The point is that Arctic ice melting (and more particularly melting of the other ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica) would be very likely to have catastrophic effects on human civilisation. That applies irrespective of whether it happens naturally or as a consequence of global warming. Given that, then whether or not there are natural cycles affecting ice melt, we should do our best to add to them as little as possible.

[barrel1234]

*shrug* Maybe it can. That's not actually the point. The point is that Arctic ice melting (and more particularly melting of the other ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica) would be very likely to have catastrophic effects on human civilisation. That applies irrespective of whether it happens naturally or as a consequence of global warming. Given that, then whether or not there are natural cycles affecting ice melt, we should do our best to add to them as little as possible.

Surely that is the point, After all there is so much discussion on if changes in modern day climate is being caused by man. The arctic melting would have a serious impact on the world, however a big growth of the arctic or a mini ice age would be likely to have a bigger effect, the only thing is that in our modern world with more population mass migration would be more difficult than any change of climate in the past???? Excluding human forces the world would continue to get warmer or colder in cycles like it always has done in the past bringing cyclic advancement and retreatment of the ice sheets, My view remains that focus should be on reaction to changes rather than trying to prevent what in my opinion are probably unstoppable natural cycles. There is so much that we dont understand. I think many conclusions made in the scientific community are very premature.

[stewfox]

*shrug* Maybe it can. That's not actually the point. The point is that Arctic ice melting (and more particularly melting of the other ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica) would be very likely to have catastrophic effects on human civilisation. That applies irrespective of whether it happens naturally or as a consequence of global warming. Given that, then whether or not there are natural cycles affecting ice melt, we should do our best to add to them as little as possible.

If the artic melted it would have no effect on human civilisation

Greenland and Antartica ice sheets are not going to melt or at max 2/3%

If a 3 miles meteorite hit the Earth that would have catastrophic effect on civilisation

Hope that clears that up

[Guest mycroft]

Did Grey wolf give a prediction of ice extent for later 2010 or 2011? I had a quick scroll back but can't find one unless I missed it.

The reason why I am so interested in his opinion of a prediction is that I know that he is far more knowledgeable in many areas of Ice extent than probably most of us are especially in certain zones, but yet I still disagree with his overall longterm prediction, If you read this GW its not a case for shooting you down if you are wrong but I would really value your prediction, its more of a case of how your side of the science could match up to what will happen this year and next year in the arctic.

if memory serves me it was around 4.1 million there abouts,correct me if i am wrong GW

[barrel1234]

I do remember him predicting a fast melt after quite large ice extents in spring and he was spot on there, I think it shocked many people that extents didn't get lower closer to the minimum, even I thought that it was going to be closer to 2007 levels at the minimum

[Devonian]

The recent rapid refreeze shows it's unlikely the ice would ever be absent for more than a few weeks a year - August and September?

I really don't see this having major implications (even if did happen)

Note this late summer period does not have strong sun warming the water either.

Humm, atm, high Arctic summer temperatures are held close to freeing point but the melting pack ice, so that when Autumn arrives the pack left soon refreezes? But, if (that's if - before I get called scaremonger or something...) we get to a point of no ice would the temperature of the Arctic sea climb more in the summer delaying ice reformation?

[Gray-Wolf]

Humm, atm, high Arctic summer temperatures are held close to freeing point but the melting pack ice, so that when Autumn arrives the pack left soon refreezes? But, if (that's if - before I get called scaremonger or something...) we get to a point of no ice would the temperature of the Arctic sea climb more in the summer delaying ice reformation?

I would suggest that the folks who relied so heavily on the Danish temps for 80n and above should re-ignite there interest in that site and explain what they see presently (and emerging as a trend over the last 7 years)?

Once the Basin settles into it's new rhythm (and we get our first 1 million ice 'min') then a lot less energy will be spent on ice melt and that energy will go on water heating. The mixing (in progress) of the Arctic ocean will bring ever warmer waters into the top 200m of the ocean exasperating the spring melt (and winter thickness 'gain') as we will be seeing over the next 15yrs from C2 and ICESat2.

Edited September 30, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi BFTP, how is it that you think the -PDO will help Arctic ice? Cloud cover, air temperature, SSTs, changes in wind patterns or a mixture of all?

Considering doing my dissertation this year on the influence of PDO phase changes on one or more Arctic ice drivers.

#

Not just the PDO but also the perturbation cycle that controls the overall ENSO pattern. These cycles affect the positioning of the jetstream which is shifting south thus reducing the 'plume incursions' to the arctic. As the oceans cool so will the continents and ice refreeze will be readily more prevalent. We are beginning to see this mechanism work as the refreeze is surprising certain quarters....it isn't a surprise refreeze to some of us.

BFTP

Edited September 30, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest mycroft]

Humm, atm, high Arctic summer temperatures are held close to freeing point but the melting pack ice, so that when Autumn arrives the pack left soon refreezes? But, if (that's if - before I get called scaremonger or something...) we get to a point of no ice would the temperature of the Arctic sea climb more in the summer delaying ice reformation?

is there not a theory that says hot/warm water cools faster or the same as cold/cool water??

Edited September 30, 2010 by mycroft

[oldsnowywizard]

I would suggest that the folks who relied so heavily on the Danish temps for 80n and above should re-ignite there interest in that site and explain what they see presently (and emerging as a trend over the last 7 years)?

ok i ill bite... it shows that temps are below 265k or -8.15degrees and dropping after going up to 266k or -7.15degrees recently or 1/1.5 degrees higher than the average...?

My link

ijis back up to 2005 figures all within 2 weeks. will it continue? who knows. apples with apples.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

is there not a theory that says hot/warm water cools faster or the same as cold/cool water?? :blush:

The problem there is Latent Heat. That's the amount of heat given off as the water changes state from liquid to solid. And it's quite a lot of energy 334 kJ/kg. And there are a lot of kg's of water that need to give up it's heat

[Gray-Wolf]

The problem there is Latent Heat. That's the amount of heat given off as the water changes state from liquid to solid. And it's quite a lot of energy 334 kJ/kg. And there are a lot of kg's of water that need to give up it's heat

Did we , once upon a time, used to have cold dense air sat on top of the ice pack in autumn as the polar night drew in helping to form a cold pool H.P.? What happens when that air sits on open water that is busy shedding heat into the atmosphere?

Do we find what we have been measuring these last 7 years? Do we see an atmospheric profile that is very altered from the 'old Arctic'?, do we see different synoptics driven by this process.

Why do folk believe that this year (with the expanse of open waters we saw this year?) will prove different to the past years? Why do they feel that the ocean will shed it's heat at an accelerated rate (or have the surface instant frozen) at odds with the basic physical laws?

[Guest mycroft]

Did we , once upon a time, used to have cold dense air sat on top of the ice pack in autumn as the polar night drew in helping to form a cold pool H.P.? What happens when that air sits on open water that is busy shedding heat into the atmosphere?

Do we find what we have been measuring these last 7 years? Do we see an atmospheric profile that is very altered from the 'old Arctic'?, do we see different synoptics driven by this process.

Why do folk believe that this year (with the expanse of open waters we saw this year?) will prove different to the past years? Why do they feel that the ocean will shed it's heat at an accelerated rate (or have the surface instant frozen) at odds with the basic physical laws?

but that heat will be shed,and lost in to a cold dark atmosphere in winter,what you think will be the outcome in terms of weather synoptics,

i think of as a hot bath full of hot water in a cold room, result lots of steam/water vapour

outcome on a global scale???????ideas anyone

Edited October 1, 2010 by mycroft

[Gray-Wolf]

but that heat will be shed,and lost in to a cold dark atmosphere in winter,what you think will be the outcome in terms of weather synoptics,

i think of as a hot bath full of hot water in a cold room, result lots of steam/water vapour

outcome on a global scale???????ideas anyone

I seem to remember that NSIDC had a section on the Arctic Amplification and it's impacts on global climate circulation? If you recall Mark Serezze linked us to this paper;

fulltext.pdf

back in May? Probably an excellant time to bring it out again and compare it with what we are witnessing this autumn?

EDIT: You should have a read........No Pressure!.......

Edited October 1, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

For me by far the most accurate fotecast of the Arctic ice situation this year has been by Joe B over on Accuweather.

He correctly predicted that the healthy ice of the early Spring would be replaced by rapid melt ........ but not matching 2007 and also that there would be a healthy recovery.

He is also predicting a late spring thaw and early autumn re-freeze next year tied into the La Nina and -PDO ....... all predicted well in advance.

You can still access some of the early video blogs he issued back in the winter.

No death spiral and doom laden posts from that quarter.

Guess we will have to see where we go from here .... but looking quite good at the moment.

Y.S

[Devonian]

Hi Folks,

For me by far the most accurate fotecast of the Arctic ice situation this year has been by Joe B over on Accuweather.

...

Y.S

What minimum figure did he predict?

Did he get closer than Tamino?

[Gray-Wolf]

What minimum figure did he predict?

Did he get closer than Tamino?

Ha,ha,ha,ha!!

W.U.W.T.= We Use Wishful Thinking............

Hi Folks,

For me by far the most accurate fotecast of the Arctic ice situation this year has been by Joe B over on Accuweather.

He correctly predicted that the healthy ice of the early Spring would be replaced by rapid melt ........ but not matching 2007 and also that there would be a healthy recovery.

Y.S

Nuff said!

Edited October 1, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[MR EXTREMES]

no he was very accurate with his prediction and also admits when hes wrong,

also he does not push his opions on other people.

its like a school playground in here right now as normal.

at this moment in time the arctic refreeze is doing very well....

so really as were entering winter,

it would be nice to talk about what the ice extent will reach during the winter up until spring.

instead of the doom and gloom campain that some posters are on.

[pottyprof]

As the freeze up is taking off up norf, we thought it would be a good thing to start a new thread.

Will be closing this one shortly.

[Gray-Wolf]

As the freeze up is taking off up norf, we thought it would be a good thing to start a new thread.

Will be closing this one shortly.

Hussar! (can we have a nice Antarctic one for the melt season there too?)