Polar Ice Extent

[Gray-Wolf]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

The above shows you that once you hit 4.2 million sq km the basin is full. For you guys wishing for 'recovery now' (without re-building the halocline/perennial and having a 2/3 full basin come Sept) then you'll need to tell me where (in sea areas and geographically) where and why we'll see it.

As I keep saying 'surely the CryoSat2 data will be available soon' so we can monitor the basin as winter progresses and see whether this 'early spurt' enables ice to thicken to the 4m+ levels we'd like or if it behaves as it did between 02' and 08' (ICESat/GRACE data)?

Sadly my money is on the latter as we can see the A.A. signal appearing beyond 80N

[The PIT]

But why is this an argument? Does it mean it's not happening? If someone robbs me of a sum can the robber dismiss it by saying it's nothing compared to my total lifetime earnings so far (even if they don't, sadly, run to billions )? How does he know when I'll earn again and how much?

Tell me why it isn't. Remember the Artic has been ice free before. You comparison is meaningless.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

The above shows you that once you hit 4.2 million sq km the basin is full. For you guys wishing for 'recovery now' (without re-building the halocline/perennial and having a 2/3 full basin come Sept) then you'll need to tell me where (in sea areas and geographically) where and why we'll see it.

As I keep saying 'surely the CryoSat2 data will be available soon' so we can monitor the basin as winter progresses and see whether this 'early spurt' enables ice to thicken to the 4m+ levels we'd like or if it behaves as it did between 02' and 08' (ICESat/GRACE data)?

Sadly my money is on the latter as we can see the A.A. signal appearing beyond 80N

You never know GW the recovery could be just starting once again using glass half full approach.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

The above shows you that once you hit 4.2 million sq km the basin is full. For you guys wishing for 'recovery now' (without re-building the halocline/perennial and having a 2/3 full basin come Sept) then you'll need to tell me where (in sea areas and geographically) where and why we'll see it.

As I keep saying 'surely the CryoSat2 data will be available soon' so we can monitor the basin as winter progresses and see whether this 'early spurt' enables ice to thicken to the 4m+ levels we'd like or if it behaves as it did between 02' and 08' (ICESat/GRACE data)?

Sadly my money is on the latter as we can see the A.A. signal appearing beyond 80N

Hi GW,

And how exactly are you going to relate the Cryosat2 data to past data? We again have the problem of comparisons. We REALLY do not know what happened before, so whatever data you have you'll be able to cry "We're all doomed"

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi GW,

And how exactly are you going to relate the Cryosat2 data to past data? We again have the problem of comparisons. We REALLY do not know what happened before, so whatever data you have you'll be able to cry "We're all doomed"

Even if we don't have a long term cryosat 2 data set to work from, it will still be handy to see how the winter effects growth in ice thickness compared to how we think it will, and how it goes come next springs melt. If the ice really is in a "death spiral" we should be able to see the thickness dropping even in just in the next few years.

The data we collect from this winter wont be able to prove anything, but will help re-affirm some ideas.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://arctic.atmos....m.region.1.html

The above shows you that once you hit 4.2 million sq km the basin is full. For you guys wishing for 'recovery now' (without re-building the halocline/perennial and having a 2/3 full basin come Sept) then you'll need to tell me where (in sea areas and geographically) where and why we'll see it.

As I keep saying 'surely the CryoSat2 data will be available soon' so we can monitor the basin as winter progresses and see whether this 'early spurt' enables ice to thicken to the 4m+ levels we'd like or if it behaves as it did between 02' and 08' (ICESat/GRACE data)?

Sadly my money is on the latter as we can see the A.A. signal appearing beyond 80N

good to see the optimistic posts continue over all a recovery is happening right now and winter is setting in and its an incredibly good start and yet all those that see this coming the likes of BFTP and joe b and others.

it might be early days but we have a head start compaired to other years good news if you ask me well it is for those that dont wish for the arctic to be ice free next year.

cant see it being ice free for some years yet anyway.

Edited September 29, 2010 by badboy657

[stewfox]

But highly unlikely, indeed probably impossible.

Reading posts elsewhere I think the explanation that the easy bits are freezing up atm (melts pools, leads, bays, inlets and the pack that has lasted the year simply consolidating) and that, if you look at the graphs, the rate of increase slows in November when open seas start to freeze.

Which suggests for this decade at least a fairly standard pattern emerges.

2007 and 2008 showed a marked early increases probably due to the above.

The cluster by mid November is quite marked, after that it may get interesting , but I doubt it.

I did think with some large September melts earlier in the month a different pattern may emerge, it hasn't

I surprised a few more people didn't have a guess a the winter values just for fun.

Edited September 29, 2010 by stewfox

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP - the exceptional late start to this year's melt still resulted in a near-tie or tie for 2nd place as the lowest sea ice extent on record (and was a clear 1st place just two months after the start of melt), why do you think the date of ice melt, or growth, start matters a jot if the overall ice extent continues to decline at an accelerating rate? 2010 finished almost exactly on the quadratic curve fit through the past 30 years of data.

I am happy to see the rapid extent increase of th last week or so, though I hope it's real area increase and not just spreading out of ice due to wind changes, as some have suggested. Another hypothesis, discussed over at Neven's blog, is that because we had a remarkably low concentration fragmented inner pack this year, the freeze-up of this inner region is accelerated by the seeding of <15% concentration areas by the fragmented ice debris already present. Previous years had little fragmentation in the inner pack, so growth had to be only around the edges. Another reason why 'extent' can be a misleading measure? Bring on Cryosat volume!

Hi SSS

We had the lag of a major El Nino and despite that we didn't crash below 07/08. We now are seing rapid gain due to the La Nina and the lag will enforce 'relative' improvement.

Quite dramatic increases currently aided IMO by the -PDO and La Nina currently.

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi SSS

We had the lag of a major El Nino and despite that we didn't crash below 07/08. We now are seing rapid gain due to the La Nina and the lag will enforce 'relative' improvement.

Quite dramatic increases currently aided IMO by the -PDO and La Nina currently.

BFTP

Hi BFTP, how is it that you think the -PDO will help Arctic ice? Cloud cover, air temperature, SSTs, changes in wind patterns or a mixture of all?

Considering doing my dissertation this year on the influence of PDO phase changes on one or more Arctic ice drivers.

[Devonian]

Tell me why it isn't. Remember the Artic has been ice free before. You comparison is meaningless.

Yes, the Arctic has been ice free before, but, for a mere billionth of a second in the life time of the planet? You see? Anything can be dismissed if one compares it with the lifetime of the planet

[pottyprof]

Yes, the Arctic has been ice free before, but, for a mere billionth of a second in the life time of the planet? You see? Anything can be dismissed if one compares it with the lifetime of the planet

But it is still a valid point that cant be totally dismissed as yet?

[Guest mycroft]

Yes, the Arctic has been ice free before, but, for a mere billionth of a second in the life time of the planet? You see? Anything can be dismissed if one compares it with the lifetime of the planet

Is it dismissive to remind, we've been here before? possibly worse, possilbly not,only time

will tell. :lol:

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi BFTP, how is it that you think the -PDO will help Arctic ice? Cloud cover, air temperature, SSTs, changes in wind patterns or a mixture of all?

Considering doing my dissertation this year on the influence of PDO phase changes on one or more Arctic ice drivers.

Hi There,

Here's a broad overview:

http://www.arctic.no...essay_bond.html

This is also good: http://www.drroyspen...al-oscillation/

This is .... well controversial (and not specifically related to the PDO): http://wattsupwithth...tic-sst-record/

Joe B has a load of stuff on his blog thats worth a look.

Here's a video blog from May ..... see the middle section on the PDO's effects: http://www.accuweather.com/video/89017432001/colder-pdo-thickening-ice.asp

Y.S

Edited September 29, 2010 by Yorkshiresnows

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi There,

Here's a broad overview:

http://www.arctic.no...essay_bond.html

This is also good: http://www.drroyspen...al-oscillation/

This is .... well controversial (and not specifically related to the PDO): http://wattsupwithth...tic-sst-record/

Joe B has a load of stuff on his blog thats worth a look.

Here's a video blog from May ..... see the middle section on the PDO's effects: http://www.accuweather.com/video/89017432001/colder-pdo-thickening-ice.asp

Y.S

Cheers YS

None were very specific on the mechanisms for the PDO to affect Arctic ice but there were a few things hinted in there I can follow up on.

[sunny starry skies]

Hi BFTP, how is it that you think the -PDO will help Arctic ice? Cloud cover, air temperature, SSTs, changes in wind patterns or a mixture of all?

Considering doing my dissertation this year on the influence of PDO phase changes on one or more Arctic ice drivers.

NDS, you might also want to check out the peer-reviewed literature, and at the least verify data that comes from sources with a 'slant' such as WUWT or Spencer. They may not tell you that the PDO is a spatial phenomenon, not a measure of absolute temperature, and that the overall North Pacific has warmed up neatly in line with global temperatures. This means that a PDO 'cold' occurrence now does not contain ocean waters that are necessarily 'cold' on average (or in fact any colder than the PDO 'warm' phases), and that the local warmings and coolings of the spatial pattern must have warmed on average over the past decades. Presumably the most interesting observations relates to the waters around the Bering Strait - What influence does the overall North Pacific warming trend have on those waters during equivalent PDO oscillation phases? There were some very high SST observations in the seas north of the Bering Strait this summer, presumably simply because the ice melted and the ocean water absorbed lots more energy?

More information here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation-intermediate.htm

And worth noting that they're doing 'advanced' versions of many of the topics so yet more information may come soon!

[jethro]

NDS, you might also want to check out the peer-reviewed literature, and at the least verify data that comes from sources with a 'slant' such as WUWT or Spencer. They may not tell you that the PDO is a spatial phenomenon, not a measure of absolute temperature, and that the overall North Pacific has warmed up neatly in line with global temperatures. This means that a PDO 'cold' occurrence now does not contain ocean waters that are necessarily 'cold' on average (or in fact any colder than the PDO 'warm' phases), and that the local warmings and coolings of the spatial pattern must have warmed on average over the past decades. Presumably the most interesting observations relates to the waters around the Bering Strait - What influence does the overall North Pacific warming trend have on those waters during equivalent PDO oscillation phases? There were some very high SST observations in the seas north of the Bering Strait this summer, presumably simply because the ice melted and the ocean water absorbed lots more energy?

More information here:

http://www.skeptical...ntermediate.htm

And worth noting that they're doing 'advanced' versions of many of the topics so yet more information may come soon!

Do you not find it a tad contradictory to criticise the slant of WUWT and Spencer, suggest folk check out info from sources without a slant and then suggest and post that link? "Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism" as a by-line hardly suggests a slant free, un-biased site.

[BornFromTheVoid]

NDS, you might also want to check out the peer-reviewed literature, and at the least verify data that comes from sources with a 'slant' such as WUWT or Spencer. They may not tell you that the PDO is a spatial phenomenon, not a measure of absolute temperature, and that the overall North Pacific has warmed up neatly in line with global temperatures. This means that a PDO 'cold' occurrence now does not contain ocean waters that are necessarily 'cold' on average (or in fact any colder than the PDO 'warm' phases), and that the local warmings and coolings of the spatial pattern must have warmed on average over the past decades. Presumably the most interesting observations relates to the waters around the Bering Strait - What influence does the overall North Pacific warming trend have on those waters during equivalent PDO oscillation phases? There were some very high SST observations in the seas north of the Bering Strait this summer, presumably simply because the ice melted and the ocean water absorbed lots more energy?

More information here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation-intermediate.htm

And worth noting that they're doing 'advanced' versions of many of the topics so yet more information may come soon!

Don't worry, I'm not a complete novice! I have bucket loads of peer reviewed literature to go through aswell, and am fully aware of wuwt and the likes angle on things. I'm aware of the fact that the PDO relates to the spatial distribution of SST anomalies as apposed to affecting absolute temps in the north Pacific.

You're right about the Bering sea though, and up into the Chukchi sea in the Arctic. Even now they're experiencing some very high SST anomalies, actually, highest on the planet at the moment going by this http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

The only thing is that the sea around the Bering strait doesn't usually hold onto much ice during the summer anyway, so the high sst anomalies may be a result of water moving through the strait from the N. Pacific?

Surface air temperatures haven't been faring much better anyway.

We have to go back to 1996 to find a predominantly cold Arctic for the same time period... You'd think with those kinda surface temperature anomalies and such high ssts, we shouldn't get the rapid ice growth we're experiencing now? Surely the latent heat of freezing can't cause all of those positive air temperature anomalies?

[weather eater]

I would be interested to see an accurate correlation between the PDO warmer and cooler phases and Arctic polar ice extent. As far as I can tell the PDO was in a warmer phase during the early 40s and from the late 70s through to the 80s. Both these periods correlated with cold UK winters and I suspect a high Arctic ice Extent, certainly higher than today’s, so an accurate correlation would be useful. It would also appear that the prevalence of colder British winters have only a small correlation with whether the PDO is in a warm or cold phase.

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Looking at the graph shown in the link, we were in a warm phase of the PDO during the war years, If I remember rightly, Artic ice extent was high during that period, certainly the Artic conveys that supplied equipment to Russia via Archangel frequently struggled with ice even during the summer months, also the ice pack was frequently used as cover by U-boats attacking allied conveys. This leads me to the suspicion that the current state of the Artic ice pack is being influenced by more than natural forces.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GW,

And how exactly are you going to relate the Cryosat2 data to past data? We again have the problem of comparisons. We REALLY do not know what happened before, so whatever data you have you'll be able to cry "We're all doomed"

So we have no idea of how the 'old perennial' used to be? Tales of office block sized blocks (and 'keels' deep into the halocline) are vastly exaggerated? Seeing as there is none of this now left in the basin surely we can note that change?

We are told we need ice over 3m+ to survive an 'average summer' melt season so plotting basin wide thickness, a couple of times a day, will bring us this data throughout winter.What do we need 'past' records for to use this data?

Some folk, let's call them the 'cyclists' use photo's of Sub's at the pole as 'proof positive' that we are not in remarkable times yet the same folk seem to shy away from the sub data (across the Basin since the 50's) as acceptable info? WUWT???

[stewfox]

We have to go back to 1996 to find a predominantly cold Arctic for the same time period... You'd think with those kinda surface temperature anomalies and such high ssts, we shouldn't get the rapid ice growth we're experiencing now? Surely the latent heat of freezing can't cause all of those positive air temperature anomalies?

I would be interested if someone in the know could answer that.

Some folk, let's call them the 'cyclists' use photo's of Sub's at the pole as 'proof positive' that we are not in remarkable times yet the same folk seem to shy away from the sub data (across the Basin since the 50's) as acceptable info? WUWT???

I think the suggestion is, as soon as data is release we don’t get ‘look volume has shrunk by 50% since 1950’ type thing’

[jethro]

I would be interested to see an accurate correlation between the PDO warmer and cooler phases and Arctic polar ice extent. As far as I can tell the PDO was in a warmer phase during the early 40s and from the late 70s through to the 80s. Both these periods correlated with cold UK winters and I suspect a high Arctic ice Extent, certainly higher than today’s, so an accurate correlation would be useful. It would also appear that the prevalence of colder British winters have only a small correlation with whether the PDO is in a warm or cold phase.

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Looking at the graph shown in the link, we were in a warm phase of the PDO during the war years, If I remember rightly, Artic ice extent was high during that period, certainly the Artic conveys that supplied equipment to Russia via Archangel frequently struggled with ice even during the summer months, also the ice pack was frequently used as cover by U-boats attacking allied conveys. This leads me to the suspicion that the current state of the Artic ice pack is being influenced by more than natural forces.

Are these any help?

http://www.springerlink.com/content/p5431824r1452037/

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3532.1

http://seagrant.uaf.edu/nosb/2005/resources/BeringSea-warming.pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the suggestion is, as soon as data is release we don’t get ‘look volume has shrunk by 50% since 1950’ type thing’

Thanks stew, I understand we will have no 'like for like' comparison but we will have a better understanding of the composition/thickness of the polar ice. I'm still 'all at sea' as to the validity of the Canadian ice service maps and their breakdown of 'ice age/type' since Prof Barber proved the sat. glitch in placing 'rotten ice' in the 'solid multiyear' category. I'm sure this problem must have been resolved but have come across no literature suggesting it is sorted and by what methods this 'dopleganger ice' has been extracted from the picture.

As such I do not know what the current breakdown in ice types is. I know Beaufort emptied of ice this year and so we can only expect 2nd/3rd year ice to be present there (as it drifts around the Beaufort Gyre from the Siberian sector) but the ice north of the C.A. and Greenland will remain a mystery as to 'how old' ,'what type the ice is.

A good (to within 1cm) guide to the ice thickness and it's development over winter will really show us how the Arctic Basin is doing. We had a glimpse from 02' to 08' and saw ice thickness pegged at 3m or less. If this is the picture we see painted this winter we'll know there are real problems in the basin and that no matter what 'extent' we see the ice is vulnerable to melt out (as we saw this past melt season?).

[MR EXTREMES]

prof barber is used alot by you gray wolf is my understanding that his scientific work rises above the rest?

be intrested to see todays values i think that a very cold arctic is inbound this winter and could well shock alot.

within the basin ofcoarse it would take year apon year of recovery to recover whats been lost one thing im certain of now is that over the last few years we seen it hold out pretty well since 2007,

this inturn leads me to think that natural cycles play a bigger part than co2 as co2 has not dropped.

i expect some years of good ice build and a good winter in and around the arctic like the experts predict.

[weather eater]

Are these any help?

http://www.springerlink.com/content/p5431824r1452037/

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3532.1

http://seagrant.uaf.edu/nosb/2005/resources/BeringSea-warming.pdf

Thanks jethro I'll have a read of those when I get time later.

[Gray-Wolf]

prof barber is used alot by you gray wolf is my understanding that his scientific work rises above the rest?

Not above all the rest b'b', just that his tail end of the polar year mission (2 winters/summers in the Beaufort/south Beaufort sea) picked up on something I'd surmised the two autumns previous ('collapse and spread). I had cautioned in 08' and 09' that some of the 'extent' was in fact the rubble from collapsing perennial 'ice floes' and so should not be held up as an example of 'recovery'. His noting of "rotten ice" and witnessing of the collapse of the multi km perennial floe proved (to me) that my thinking over the past 2 melt seasons had been correct.

Of course Prof Barbers expertise goes without question but then so does all the rest of the folk who have specialised in study of the Arctic for their professional careers.

As for 'recovery' we need to see the old levels of perennial cover in the Arctic basin over the summer months not large extents over the winter months.

Folk should accept the role that this ice played in our climate system and accept the dangers of it's removal esp. the mixing out of the essential 'halocline' layer of the ocean which, in the past, allowed thick ice to form and maintain.

All I seem to hear folk banging on about is ice 'extent'. Nothing about thickness, nothing about ice cover no longer damping out ocean swells (due to it's 'new' thinness/construction) and nothing about the lack of shut doors across the exits from the basin (Fram/Nares/Bering and possibly now sections of the Canadian Archipelago.....one to watch!).

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

All I seem to hear folk banging on about is ice 'extent'. Nothing about thickness, nothing about ice cover no longer damping out ocean swells (due to it's 'new' thinness/construction) and nothing about the lack of shut doors across the exits from the basin (Fram/Nares/Bering and possibly now sections of the Canadian Archipelago.....one to watch!).

GW,

Was it just, what you call, the "Old Perennial" that stopped ice traversing the gaps at Fram and Nares? or were there some other factors as well?