Meto Uk Further Outlook

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Oh lord, it's all kicking off. 

[Bristawl Si]

Basically they're not sure. Their updates for 3 to 4 weeks hence are probably a necessity to meet their public service duties.

[northwestsnow]

Thats a pretty big backtrack away from 'increasing confidence of a cold first half of Jan'..

Doesn't mean the end of optimism but it is a big dent , as Blue says, something must have changed overnight, Glosea?

 

[bradymk]

3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Does any one no what happend 2010 dec colder with the updates the lead up to it ? 

2013 example - SSW in Jan.

Posted December 29, 2012

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Sunday 27 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

 

2010 Example - this pretty much didn't change wording for a week or two.

Posted December 1, 2010

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Dec 2010 to Thursday 30 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1222 on Wed 1 Dec 2010

 

This from Marco Petagna on Twitter yesterday regarding the 30 dayer

"All weather model output is considered when writing the 30day forecasts. However the forecast is worded to emphasise the uncertainties at that stage...no reference to 'will' but 'likely'. Our deputy chief writes this & has access to more info than me so cannot comment further"

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I cannot believe that the word dreadful has been used to describe the latest update. The mention of Easterly winds and wintry weather is dreadful!, Really, I mean wtf, with all due respect.

Edited December 19, 2018 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[karlos1983]

Here's a little fact for you all:

"How the MetO forecast is worded varies markedly depending on who is on the Medium range shift!"

some are reading way to much into this!

Edited December 19, 2018 by karlos1983

[matt111]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Here's a little fact for you all:

How the MetO forecast is worded varies markedly depending on who is on the Medium range shift! 

some are reading way to much into this!

Funny you should mention that as I’ve seen that mentioned somewhere before. 

[IDO]

I was musing earlier on how the Met got to an easterly by early Jan? Looking at the ECM and GEFS mean by D10 it was going to be a hard call:

They had to backtrack as clearly it looks unlikely to be close, TBH an attack from the west is much more likely on current charts.

Maybe they were seeing an early SSW response to the trop? If that was the case then at least we know what trop response the Met are expecting post SSW?

In any case, no one can be certain as to when the trop will respond and where the blocks and cold will locate after the downwelling so no change really. All I am interested in is that we get an SSW and preferably a split.

[MattStoke]

Might just be a slower response to the SSW than they initially thought. Mid January would probably be prime time for seeing the effects.

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Here's a little fact for you all:

"How the MetO forecast is worded varies markedly depending on who is on the Medium range shift!"

some are reading way to much into this!

Heard from reliable sources that Darren Bett was covering this shift today!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Heard from reliable sources that Darren Bett was covering this shift today!

there you go then  might as well have Gav updating it lol 

[Norrance]

52 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

2013 example - SSW in Jan.

Posted December 29, 2012

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Sunday 27 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

 

2010 Example - this pretty much didn't change wording for a week or two.

Posted December 1, 2010

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Dec 2010 to Thursday 30 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1222 on Wed 1 Dec 2010

Do you have one from say early to mid November 2010 before the cold started? It would be really interesting to see what they forecast at that point. Thanks in advance.

 By1st Dec we had a week of snow showers, a day of thundersnow (28th Nov) with around 40cms level snow and -double digit minima.

[lassie23]

38 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Heard from reliable sources that Darren Bett was covering this shift today!

Darren at least it will be mild bett

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Do you have one from say early to mid November 2010 before the cold started? It would be really interesting to see what they forecast at that point. Thanks in advance.

 By1st Dec we had a week of snow showers, a day of thundersnow (28th Nov) with around 40cms level snow and -double digit minima.

You can find the shorter range updates from 2010 here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?page=4

Longer range ones ain't here sadly 

 

[Don]

On 18/12/2018 at 14:25, karyo said:

Yes, the update is certainly an improvement. 

They definitely seem less confident again with increased uncertainty.  However, plenty more twists and turns to come In sure.

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Dreadful update, anyone who thinks that’s basically the same must be in denial! 

or perhaps everyone else doesn’t  take each update like gospel as you appear to do 

Toys out the pram season is well and truly back again

Edited December 19, 2018 by SLEETY

[johnholmes]

42 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Do you have one from say early to mid November 2010 before the cold started? It would be really interesting to see what they forecast at that point. Thanks in advance.

 By1st Dec we had a week of snow showers, a day of thundersnow (28th Nov) with around 40cms level snow and -double digit minima.

The prediction was solid from about 2 weeks before the onset in mid November, I'm sure someone will find the actual first text for you.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, johnholmes said:

The prediction was solid from about 2 weeks before the onset in mid November, I'm sure someone will find the actual first text for you.

Yes i think you are right John holmes, my recollection is that they were consistent in their daily updates for a good 10 days or more..

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Heard from reliable sources that Darren Bett was covering this shift today!

Although that's unlikely, Darren Bett along with all other previous Met Office presenters currently working at the BBC Weather Centre, no longer actually work for UKMO anymore. They are BBC employees.

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Bit of a downgrade no doubt with the extended forecast. Let’s see if we can see a reversal in fortunes before Xmas! Need to see ‘well below average’ and ‘disruptive snow’ in the forecast before I get excited!!

Edited December 19, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[bradymk]

53 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The prediction was solid from about 2 weeks before the onset in mid November, I'm sure someone will find the actual first text for you.

 

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Do you have one from say early to mid November 2010 before the cold started? It would be really interesting to see what they forecast at that point. Thanks in advance.

 By1st Dec we had a week of snow showers, a day of thundersnow (28th Nov) with around 40cms level snow and -double digit minima.

Done some backtracking through the threads. Obviously the forecast dates start to overlap/change from 16-30 to 6-15 day forecasts as you move through. I think it shows below that these forecasts often tend to start to pick up trends in the extended and then develop on these closer to time with more detail and certainty. As Bluearmy said above though, these are definitely changing more frequently recently than they used to. Looking back, wording would not change for 5/6 days at a time.

 

Last day of October - not really picked up on as of yet.
UK Outlook for Monday 15 Nov 2010 to Monday 29 Nov 2010:

The last two weeks of November are expected to begin wet, windy and mild and feeling autumnal. Temperatures are expected to be near or a little above the normal, especially in the south. Some parts of the UK may see below average rainfall towards the end of the month, especially the east of England and the southwest of the UK. Temperatures are also expected to begin above average, but then to become closer to the average later in the period.

Updated: 1200 on Sun 31 Oct 2010

 

7th November - below average signal and weather being picked up.

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Nov 2010 to Monday 6 Dec 2010:

The trend is for generally more settled weather to spread across the UK during this period at the end of November and the start of December. Although rainfall may be somewhat above average in central and southern parts at first, it is likely to become near or below average everywhere during the first week of the period. With clear skies and winds perhaps lighter than normal, it looks as though temperatures will be often below average. There is also likely to be less sunshine than usual for many parts of the UK later in the period, the best of the brighter weather in northern areas.

Updated: 1241 on Sun 7 Nov 2010

 

11th November - Starting now to get into the brief pattern emerging end of Nov.

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Nov 2010 to Friday 10 Dec 2010:

Remaining generally settled, but cold across much of the UK. Precipitation should be mostly below average, with the driest and brightest weather expected in the west. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers into eastern areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with a risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1153 on Thu 11 Nov 2010

 

18th November - Forecast has now moved into the 6-15 day forecast rather than 15-30. Definite wording now and this wording started from Tuesday 16th.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Thursday 2 Dec 2010:

A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells in central and western parts, but cloudier with showers in the east, perhaps frequent at first. The showers will be wintry over hills, particularly in the north. It will gradually turn colder through next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme continues into December for most parts, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather, although western parts may start to turn less cold.

Updated: 1149 on Thu 18 Nov 2010

 

22nd November - A solid 6-15 day forecast for cold and snow.

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Nov 2010 to Monday 6 Dec 2010:

The first weekend will see snow showers anywhere in the UK, but most showers or longer periods of snow will be across eastern areas, with maybe southern areas being affected too. Risk of some significant accumulations, especially on hills. Also clearer spells, more in the west, with widespread frosts. All areas very cold. Continuing windy in places; risk of gales in the northeast. The first part of next week sees further snow showers in the east, with drier and brighter conditions to the west, and still very cold, but perhaps turning less cold in the south later. For the rest of the period it will stay cold with further wintry showers. The south and southwest may be milder at times but with some spells of rain, sleet, or possibly snow.

Updated: 1159 on Mon 22 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Norrance]

@bradythemole thanks very much for that. By the 18th it looked pretty much nailed on.

I think that is pretty much my memory of how the severe spell was forecast by the Met.

[SLEETY]

nice update on their youtube channel mentioning increased chance of cold weather due to ssw in january.

Still unless meto mention severe blizzards and -20 c it will be a downgrade to some on the weather forums

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

nice update on their youtube channel mentioning increased chance of cold weather due to ssw in january.

Still unless meto mention severe blizzards and -20 c it will be a downgrade to some on the weather forums

Spot on... in-fact even then there'd probably still be discontent  

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Thursday 3 Jan 2019:

Christmas Day should be bright in the north and east, though there could be a touch of frost and any morning fog patches may be slow to clear. Further south and west it will be mild and cloudy; the cloud should gradually spread northeastwards. It should be mostly dry with only a little drizzly rain in the west. Boxing Day is also looking largely settled but cloudy for many with rain likely for the far north. It should stay often dry through the end of December and into 2019, especially in the south. Further north it may become more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, which may spread further south at times. Whilst temperatures will be around average, some overnight frosts are possible in any clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast