Meto Uk Further Outlook

[mb018538]

The great MetOffice back-down commences! Days and days of forecasts for high pressure at the end of June/start of July.....now changed to unsettled Atlantic mobile weather. Utterly useless. 

[Mr Frost]

On 16/06/2019 at 15:32, Mike Poole said:

This looks like a continued upgrade as far as I can see, and I will be holding my line that things are going to improve, when I comment on the 12z runs in the model thread later! 

Might want to avoid reading today’s update mate...

However - hopefully just as in Winter...they are wide of the mark! 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Mr Frost

[lassie23]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The great MetOffice back-down commences! Days and days of forecasts for high pressure at the end of June/start of July.....now changed to unsettled Atlantic mobile weather. Utterly useless. 

 

6 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Might want to avoid reading today’s update mate...

However - hopefully just as in Winter...they are wide of the mark! 

I'm still waiting for the cold snowy spell they were forecasting for February and Smarch

[mountain shadow]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The great MetOffice back-down commences! Days and days of forecasts for high pressure at the end of June/start of July.....now changed to unsettled Atlantic mobile weather. Utterly useless. 

You're better off following some of the longer term forecasters on here than the Met Office. I hardly even look at these now.

[mb018538]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

You're better off following some of the longer term forecasters on here than the Met Office. I hardly even look at these now.

They were very out of touch during the winter. I don't find them much use either, as you say it's more beneficial to get expertise on NW. 

[karyo]

12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

 

I'm still waiting for the cold snowy spell they were forecasting for February and Smarch

It was always meant to be winter 2020! haha

[Sweatyman]

43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The great MetOffice back-down commences! Days and days of forecasts for high pressure at the end of June/start of July.....now changed to unsettled Atlantic mobile weather. Utterly useless. 

hopeless

[Don]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

It was always meant to be winter 2020! haha

Exactly.  Winter 2020 here we come!

[Summer Sun]

Monday 24 June - Wednesday 3 July

Unsettled weather dominates on Monday with a band of heavy rain pushing northeastwards across the northern half of the UK, but with heavy showers breaking out in parts of the south. There's a risk of thunderstorms bringing some torrential downpours across central and eastern England where it could be very warm. This unsettled theme continues through the middle of the week, with further bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms likely, especially for central and eastern areas. As we approach the end of June there may be more in the way of dry and settled weather, with temperatures mostly near normal, but warm at times in the southeast. However, by early July more unsettled conditions with showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain may return to northwestern areas.

Thursday 4 July - Thursday 18 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast detail becomes very low, however it seems most probable that high pressure will lie to the south and east of the UK whilst Atlantic weather fronts occasionally affect the north and northwest. This means showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain are likely in the northwest, while the south and southeast may see more in the way of dry weather, although some thundery outbreaks are possible as is usual for this time of year. Temperatures through this part of July will probably near or slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[DAVID SNOW]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday 24 June - Wednesday 3 July

Unsettled weather dominates on Monday with a band of heavy rain pushing northeastwards across the northern half of the UK, but with heavy showers breaking out in parts of the south. There's a risk of thunderstorms bringing some torrential downpours across central and eastern England where it could be very warm. This unsettled theme continues through the middle of the week, with further bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms likely, especially for central and eastern areas. As we approach the end of June there may be more in the way of dry and settled weather, with temperatures mostly near normal, but warm at times in the southeast. However, by early July more unsettled conditions with showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain may return to northwestern areas.

Thursday 4 July - Thursday 18 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast detail becomes very low, however it seems most probable that high pressure will lie to the south and east of the UK whilst Atlantic weather fronts occasionally affect the north and northwest. This means showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain are likely in the northwest, while the south and southeast may see more in the way of dry weather, although some thundery outbreaks are possible as is usual for this time of year. Temperatures through this part of July will probably near or slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

No mention of 35c next week then.

[northwestsnow]

Not sure what to make of next weeks forecast, i note the words very warm and thunderstorms , so its going to be interesting.

rather more interestingly, Exeter now suggesting HP to our South and East int July , that sounds like a NW/SE split to me..

Edited June 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Don]

38 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

No mention of 35c next week then.

Not yet but they do mention the chance of it becoming very warm in central and eastern parts.  However, expect an upgrade tomorrow if the models continue in the same vein.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Don

[Derecho]

Nice video from the met office. Although I would say support has grown for scenario 1 this morning:
 

Also the accompanying press release:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/hot-spell

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Nice video from the met office. Although I would say support has grown for scenario 1 this mor

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/hot-spell

Those are fantastic. 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 25 June - Thursday 4 July

Unsettled, very warm and humid weather is likely to continue for many through Tuesday with showers breaking out, especially in the south. There is uncertainty in the location of these, but they will be heavy with thunderstorms bringing the potential for torrential downpours. Through the second half of the week, much of the UK is likely to remain humid and very warm, perhaps hot giving the possibility of further heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some cooler conditions are expected to spread in from the west at times, perhaps most likely towards the end of the week. Thereafter, as we approach the end of June and early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather. Temperatures will return closer to normal, although it will continue to feel warm.

Friday 5 July - Friday 19 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the south and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the northwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

Excellent update !!

Now the word 'hot' being wheeled out..

[Don]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent update !!

Now the word 'hot' being wheeled out..

Yes, upgrade as expected.

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 26 June - Friday 5 July

Unsettled, hot and humid weather is likely to continue for many through Wednesday with a risk of severe thunderstorms, especially in central and southern areas. There is uncertainty in the location of these, but they will be heavy with the potential for torrential downpours. Through the second half of the week, much of the UK is likely to remain humid and very warm, perhaps hot giving the possibility of further heavy showers and thunderstorms. Fresher conditions are expected to gradually spread in from the west, perhaps most likely during the weekend. Thereafter, as we approach early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather, mainly in the northeast. Temperatures will return closer to normal, although it will continue to feel warm.

Saturday 6 July - Saturday 20 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

A really excellent update ... !!

hot humid and now mentioning severe thunderstorms ..

[karyo]

The second part of the forecast does not make sense. High pressure close to the north and east with low pressure to the southwest bringing unsettled weather to the northwest? The southwest is where the most unsettled weather should be focused on, in such a set up.

[johnholmes]

37 minutes ago, karyo said:

The second part of the forecast does not make sense. High pressure close to the north and east with low pressure to the southwest bringing unsettled weather to the northwest? The southwest is where the most unsettled weather should be focused on, in such a set up.

Not necessarily

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 27 June - Saturday 6 July

Early showers and possible thunderstorms will clear northwards during Thursday morning to leave a mostly dry day, with sunny spells, especially away from North Sea coasts. Turning increasingly sunny across southern and eastern England, where it'll be humid and potentially very hot. Friday looks set to stay hot and humid in the south and east, with the risk of some showers in the west. By the weekend and into the following week, confidence is low, with uncertainty in the possibilty of a breakdown to fresher conditions gradually spreading in from the west. Thereafter, as we go into early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather, mainly in the northeast. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm start to the period.

Sunday 7 July - Sunday 21 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

Gone the full hog now and changed to very hot!!

Looks like they are sitting on the fence wrt weekend for now.

 

[Don]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Gone the full hog now and changed to very hot!!

Looks like they are sitting on the fence wrt weekend for now.

 

Yes, finally taken the plunge!  I reckon records are going to tumble.  Will be driving into some serious heat on Thursday when I return home from Scotland!  The house will be like a furnace!

[johnholmes]

My attempt to try and explain why max temps are lower than many had hoped for

 

Met O National Outlook Sunday morning 23 June 2019

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Marked contrasts in the weather; very warm and humid, mainly in the south and west, but cool and grey near North Sea coasts. Risk of thunderstorms, especially at first.

No numbers but their phrase for inland is  warm and humid not hot and humid,

Warm is +2 to +3 C above normal

Also if you look at the latest skew-t and look at 850 mb values later next week, around 18 to 20C then look at the surface value, even in the far west it is not much above 21C (add 2-3 C perhaps). Closer to the east coast and it is below that. The clue is the flow at low level off the N Sea.

Look at the latest clutch of Met Fax charts now out to 120 hours=00Z Thursday and it shows an easterly flow for many and that flow has come all the way down the N Sea, temperature around 13-14 C.

To me there is nothing wrong with what is now being predicted. One or two, several days ago, suggested thekey to actual temperatures was the position of the high and so it has turned out, at least on current models and forecasts.