Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[BornFromTheVoid]

Very interesting, thanks for posting that, we are well down on the eastern side of Greenland, Im guessing that must be down to mainly local temperatures, we are experiencing somewhat of an indian summer here would it be the same southerlies keeping that part from freezing at present?

I think it's more to do with the fact that during the summer of 07, the was a strong dipole present (high pressure over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic, low pressure over the Russian side) which pushed a lot of ice down along the east coast of Greenland out into the N. Atlantic. A lot of that melted resulting in the record low ice extent.

We haven't had as much as that this summer, so little ice there now.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A modest increase in extent today of 70,000km2.

Something odd though, on the IJIS daily figures here 2008 is at 6,2000,000km2 to the 8th, 35,000km2 above 2010 to the same date, yet the extent graphs show 2010 as having a higher extent? http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

Perhaps the graph doesn't update until later in the day and I just haven't noticed?

Anyway, plenty of ice growth on the Bering side and near Russian coast, especially in the western Laptev sea and into the C.A., with just a little loss in the Kara sea.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Guys!

Came across this in my trawling;

Showing how , now we've melted out the majority of the ice, the pace of change appears to be accelerating.

If you look at the red line this plots recent reductions in 'extent' since 2,000.

This is where the 'tipping point' became visible to most of us as the ice covering the surface was now being melted back within the basin (and not just the 'invisible' mass below the waterline).

As has been pointed out to us ,across the so called '07' rebound' ice volume has continued to decline leaving a negligable amount of ice over 5yrs old in the basin (instead of 60% of the ice at melt season's end). This leaves us with only ice formed within the period of the 'GRACE/ICESat' data which showed a failure of ice to thicken as it aged (i.e. a 'new' type of ice?).

Back to the 'graph'. note how far 07' would skew the line if included in the data? We need be aware that this type of melt , driven by 'perefect strom' synoptics is not uncommon in the Basin. The AGU in fall of 07' had it as a 10 to 20yr cyclical event (with 77' ,87, and 07' being the last 3). We can see what this meant in those years with the 2 'perefect storms' not impacting ice 'extent in the basin due to the massive amount of thick ice still in place back then. By 07' the ice was 1/3 thick ice and 2/3 thin skim. We know what happened to the 'thin skim' ice (but also what happened to that 1/3 thick ice with collapse and ship out through Fram/Nares).

We now have no 'thick ice' (of the dimensions of the 'old perennial') so what would folk expect of the next 'perfect storm'?

We have (as shown by 08's buoy data) a pack shipping ice around the basin at up to 3 times the speeds witnessed in the past and all ice under 5 years old (and comprising of a lot of this 'new' thickness limited ice (composite of ice and compacted snow?).

To me this means a sub 1 million pack the next time we run into a perfect storm with the only ice remaining being that plastered along the North shore of Greenland and Canadian Archipelago (now the Archipelago ice has melted out I imagine this will occur each summer from now on) and the ocean being free of all ice.

[MR EXTREMES]

Hi Guys!

Came across this in my trawling;

Showing how , now we've melted out the majority of the ice, the pace of change appears to be accelerating.

If you look at the red line this plots recent reductions in 'extent' since 2,000.

This is where the 'tipping point' became visible to most of us as the ice covering the surface was now being melted back within the basin (and not just the 'invisible' mass below the waterline).

As has been pointed out to us ,across the so called '07' rebound' ice volume has continued to decline leaving a negligable amount of ice over 5yrs old in the basin (instead of 60% of the ice at melt season's end). This leaves us with only ice formed within the period of the 'GRACE/ICESat' data which showed a failure of ice to thicken as it aged (i.e. a 'new' type of ice?).

Back to the 'graph'. note how far 07' would skew the line if included in the data? We need be aware that this type of melt , driven by 'perefect strom' synoptics is not uncommon in the Basin. The AGU in fall of 07' had it as a 10 to 20yr cyclical event (with 77' ,87, and 07' being the last 3). We can see what this meant in those years with the 2 'perefect storms' not impacting ice 'extent in the basin due to the massive amount of thick ice still in place back then. By 07' the ice was 1/3 thick ice and 2/3 thin skim. We know what happened to the 'thin skim' ice (but also what happened to that 1/3 thick ice with collapse and ship out through Fram/Nares).

We now have no 'thick ice' (of the dimensions of the 'old perennial') so what would folk expect of the next 'perfect storm'?

We have (as shown by 08's buoy data) a pack shipping ice around the basin at up to 3 times the speeds witnessed in the past and all ice under 5 years old (and comprising of a lot of this 'new' thickness limited ice (composite of ice and compacted snow?).

To me this means a sub 1 million pack the next time we run into a perfect storm with the only ice remaining being that plastered along the North shore of Greenland and Canadian Archipelago (now the Archipelago ice has melted out I imagine this will occur each summer from now on) and the ocean being free of all ice.

not if the recovery continues it only takes year after year of recovery to process to multi year ice.

no good look at things from one angle granted ice loss has been a problem whilst we were in a milder climate things are slowly changing though so gradual build over years would see good gains and to asume the: (now the Archipelago ice has melted out I imagine this will occur each summer from now on) is absolutely unfounded because you can not count on this happening.

[Gray-Wolf]

not if the recovery continues it only takes year after year of recovery to process to multi year ice.

no good look at things from one angle granted ice loss has been a problem whilst we were in a milder climate things are slowly changing though so gradual build over years would see good gains and to assume the: (now the Archipelago ice has melted out I imagine this will occur each summer from now on) is absolutely unfounded because you can not count on this happening.

I take it the 'gradual change' includes a continuation of one of the hottest years on record? (looks like Sept was the 'warmest' recorded...not bad for PDO-ve and Nina driven synoptics eh?)

I do not wish to take issue with your 'opinions' here bb but your 'facts' seem a little bit homely do they not?

Read through the NSIDC/NASA reports on the changes to the Arctic ice since 2000 and then maybe try and couch your answer in their 'data'? I think you'll struggle.

If the Arctic was as simple as system as to only need 'consistent cold' for 10yrs to 'repair' things you might be onto something but it is so much more complex (in my understanding) than that.

As a starter explain to me why GRACE/ICESat noted a 'limited' ice thickness and a move away from the old "age =thickness" process in the Basin. Why is ice not growing thicker with age anymore? Why does 3m pack no longer take a man's weight anymore? Why do the icebreakers have to deal with 'swell' when in contiguous ice these days?Why does ice flow out of Fram/Nares these days both winter and summer? Could it be we have a 'new' type of ice borne out of the increased mobility of the pack and increased precipitation across areas of the basin?

Could it possibly that I am reporting accurately (as possible?) the mechanisms behind these indisputable observations? Could it be that you are reluctant to accept the changes that are shown us for other reasons other than a search for the 'truth'?

The state of the Arctic Pack leads me to believe that we are already a 'seasonal pack in waiting' and so must await another 'perfect Storm' (6 to 16yrs away max....next year , min) for this to be put to the test.

Once again I'd implore you to read through the news from NSIDC/NASA since the mid 80's (and prior to 07') and see what the 'worries' were back then (before the 07' event). Do this with an eye for ice volume/age/percentage perennial at ice min at that corresponding year. How does that make you feel about our 'new Arctic'?

Edited October 9, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[MR EXTREMES]

so graywolf

so pdo being neg works straight away do it?

with two decades of warmer oceans then in my opion this will take time to cool off.

does not mean the arctic wont cool quicker as has happened through out earths history.

im thinking your use any kind of excuse to put across a point that suits you,

but here is how it stands for some years now you made your predictions for the arctic sometimes your right sometimes your wrong 2007 was the record lowest we have slightly built on that and that this autumn is doing ok considering last winter was strong el nino were still doing ok.

im starting to think some of the science and evidence your putting forward is floored.

im not saying we have had a decline in arctic ice amounts over decades but it could well be on the up if it rings true what some experts are saying!

of coarse each cycle each weather pattern is different! each year is different the only thing we can do is wait and see your pushy post is not going to make it freeze quicker neither melt quicker and if its a cycle then theres noway man could do anything about it. 

Edited October 9, 2010 by badboy657

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS data has updated to give us a much more respectable gain today of exactly 110,000km2.

Meanwhile on CT, NH ice area is still languishing down almost 1.4 million km2 below average, while Antarctica continues to increase (while it should be melting) to 400,000km2 above average, taking the global sea ice back to just under 1,000,000km2 off the long term figures.

Looking at the modis images, it seems we are getting some fresh sea ice forming along much of the Russian north coast and pushing seaward.

The models for the next few days still predict a moderate wind flow through the Fram strait, so it will be interesting to see how easily the ice moves south...

[Gray-Wolf]

so graywolf

so pdo being neg works straight away do it?

with two decades of warmer oceans then in my opion this will take time to cool off.

does not mean the arctic wont cool quicker as has happened through out earths history.

im thinking your use any kind of excuse to put across a point that suits you,

but here is how it stands for some years now you made your predictions for the arctic sometimes your right sometimes your wrong 2007 was the record lowest we have slightly built on that and that this autumn is doing ok considering last winter was strong el nino were still doing ok.

im starting to think some of the science and evidence your putting forward is floored.

im not saying we have had a decline in arctic ice amounts over decades but it could well be on the up if it rings true what some experts are saying!

of coarse each cycle each weather pattern is different! each year is different the only thing we can do is wait and see your pushy post is not going to make it freeze quicker neither melt quicker and if its a cycle then theres noway man could do anything about it. 

Did we not have a bevy of posts pleading the last Nino (through spring) was the reason ther planet was so warm? You can't say that one side of the coin leads to instant climate 'augmentation' yet the other needs time to work through into the System.

Are we putting the PDO-ve 'start point' back again or are we staying with when NASA 'called it' bb? As you know we will only be able to 'define' when it began long after it is back into neutral/positive but I'm still of the opinion it flipped into negative phase back in 98' (and I'm in good company it would appear).

Look at the 'historic' PDO-ves and tell me where their influence began to be felt, my reckoning has the phase at 12yrs old with it's stuttering influence being felt since 06' (5 years into the phase). The 'milding out' of such climate influences make it a difficult call doesn't it bb?;

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

though you can plainly see the fall into -ve in 98' in the above records........just that the 'milding out' now adds a 0.5 onto each ref. point. Take off a 0.5 for each month since 98's fall into -ve and see how similar it appears to other 'historic' PDO-ve periods that the folk who rely on it to cool the planet refer to.....odd that eh?

[J10]

As suspected the low point was reached and we are now entering the refreeze period.

With the latest figures at 5,633,125, this figure is 209,844 below recent term averages, and 1,644,426 below longer term averages. Ice growth this week was 62,000 per day, this is above average.

This is the last update using the summer spreadsheet. I will be creating an Autumn/winter one next week, but I will not be updating this throughout the winter period, but If someone wants to update it themselves, please do so.

The latest Sea Ice Extent figures are 6,268,750 km2, which is 94,420 below recent averages and 1,586,078 below longer term averages. Ice Growth this week was 85,000 which is above both short and long term averages. Ice growth seems to be better than last year, but behind how it was in 2008, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues during October.

Ranking 6th of 8 (Recent) 30th of 32 (Long Term) (Above 2007 and 2009)

[stewfox]

The latest Sea Ice Extent figures are 6,268,750 km2, which is 94,420 below recent averages and 1,586,078 below longer term averages. Ice Growth this week was 85,000 which is above both short and long term averages. Ice growth seems to be better than last year, but behind how it was in 2008, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues during October.

Ranking 6th of 8 (Recent) 30th of 32 (Long Term) (Above 2007 and 2009)

Another large correction upwards. 6,316,513 , another 100k + day

[stewfox]

82,000 gain today which is likely to go above 100,000 after 2^nd pass over.

We see at this time of year some of the strongest gains day on day as you would expect.

10.10.10 was 1,142,813 above 10.10.07

Edited October 11, 2010 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Certainly an 'odd' 'refreeze' so far? I would have expected (shows what I know!) temps to be a lot more influenced by the heat that the ocean accrued over summer. I'd have expected an 07'/09' type plot on the above temp profile (based on the amount and distribution of ice loss)? As it is we seem closer to the 08' temps so far with only two minor spikes.

By Dec we should have a better picture of the way that the ocean has shed it's heat this year (and what that might mean for us/refreeze?).

If we do not see the type of volatility in the atmospheric temps that we saw last year then I'd be tempted to update my winter forecast for here to a more mild/wet one?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Did we not have a bevy of posts pleading the last Nino (through spring) was the reason ther planet was so warm? You can't say that one side of the coin leads to instant climate 'augmentation' yet the other needs time to work through into the System.

Are we putting the PDO-ve 'start point' back again or are we staying with when NASA 'called it' bb? As you know we will only be able to 'define' when it began long after it is back into neutral/positive but I'm still of the opinion it flipped into negative phase back in 98' (and I'm in good company it would appear).

Look at the 'historic' PDO-ves and tell me where their influence began to be felt, my reckoning has the phase at 12yrs old with it's stuttering influence being felt since 06' (5 years into the phase). The 'milding out' of such climate influences make it a difficult call doesn't it bb?;

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

though you can plainly see the fall into -ve in 98' in the above records........just that the 'milding out' now adds a 0.5 onto each ref. point. Take off a 0.5 for each month since 98's fall into -ve and see how similar it appears to other 'historic' PDO-ve periods that the folk who rely on it to cool the planet refer to.....odd that eh?

GW

I don't believe that the PDO changed to -ve in 1998, yes a negative spell but the cycle wasn't in negative. Clearly positve and negative phases don't continually remain in those states. The change was more recent within the last 4 years and no there is no 'milding out'. I mean your 'milding out' of the La Nina certainly has come crashing down hasn't it and I will suggest so will your PDO 'milding out' scenario. There is a lot of warm phase to deal with over last 30years ocean wise but I must say the cooling in the Pacific is gathering apace.

BFTP

Edited October 11, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

You'd better be right BFTP, if it turns out that I'm even in the 'ball park' with my 'understandings/projections' we're Screvved

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

You'd better be right BFTP, if it turns out that I'm even in the 'ball park' with my 'understandings/projections' we're Screvved

The strength of this Nina is already against your projections as it is much stronger/ colder than you thought it would be and its likely to strengthen further. I think come Dec the effects of this will be upon us. The loss of heat has been very dramatic to say the least. Impressive

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

BFTP

Edited October 11, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[stewfox]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php

Certainly an 'odd' 'refreeze' so far? I would have expected (shows what I know!) temps to be a lot more influenced by the heat that the ocean accrued over summer. I'd have expected an 07'/09' type plot on the above temp profile (based on the amount and distribution of ice loss)? As it is we seem closer to the 08' temps so far with only two minor spikes.

How much melt did we see above 80N ?.

A few pools of water going to re freeze fairly quickly or was there much open water ?

If there was hard to understand the temp profiles.

[Gray-Wolf]

How much melt did we see above 80N ?.

A few pools of water going to re freeze fairly quickly or was there much open water ?

If there was hard to understand the temp profiles.

I recall the pack being quite mobile across the pole with at least 1/2 of the area beyond 80n open water for a spell in early Aug before the Siberian ice moved over it? The area from the pole out to Fram remained 'low concentration' from then on? Maybe we're seeing 'drift ice' covering over the warmer seas and stopping the heat escape? If so then what will it be doing to the base of the 'drift ice'???

Maybe we need to watch the 'ice thickness' plots to see if we have any static/slow gain/thinning in the 80n to pole area?

EDIT: Just pulled this from the 'Wokingham weather' site;

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

from the 9th Oct

you can see how the ice in Lincoln sea (the feed into Nares) is 'scolloping' again (like the past 2 winters?) and feeding into Nares channel. The large floe that NDS alerted us to a couple of weeks back has now framented and melted.

Edited October 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

It seems at the moment we're still the 3rd lowest extent on record, but we may jump 2005 and possibly 2008 if todays correction is big enough, which would sit us roughly mid pack (by the IJIS figures anyway). As we're about to enter the period with the largest gains of the year (10th-25th average for the last 8 years is over 100,000km2/day) it will take something special to catch the top 4 years, is this where La Nina and a -ve PDO step in?

Anyway, conditions look quite good in general across the Arctic for the next week or so, although after 5 days we develop some strong winds though Fram once more which looks like lasting longer and being a little stronger than the last bout.

[stewfox]

8 y

It seems at the moment we're still the 3rd lowest extent on record, but we may jump 2005 and possibly 2008 if todays correction is big enough, which would sit us roughly mid pack (by the IJIS figures anyway). As we're about to enter the period with the largest gains of the year (10th-25th average for the last 8 years is over 100,000km2/day) it will take something special to catch the top 4 years, is this where La Nina and a -ve PDO step in?

We need to be careful that we don’t get carried away with the IJIS figures for the last 9 seasons.

I think (GW correct me if I’m wrong) the min ice extents in the 1970s and 1980s were generally still higher (ie £6.3m +) then what we see today ie at 10^th October.

Didn’t we have minimums around 7m at end of the melt season then ?

[Gray-Wolf]

The satellite record shows a clear decrease of average September sea ice extent in the Arctic. Since 1979, sea ice has decreased more than 7.5 percent per decade. (NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.)

I found the above here;

http://earthobservat...eaIce/page3.php

so yes, the 'old' mins were far higher than our present 'recovery'? extent.

Sadly the data at the side is now 'outdated' with the 'decrease in sea ice min' now running at 11.5% per decade;

http://nsidc.org/news/press/20101004_minimumpr.html

Edited October 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

8 y

We need to be careful that we don’t get carried away with the IJIS figures for the last 9 seasons.

I think (GW correct me if I’m wrong) the min ice extents in the 1970s and 1980s were generally still higher (ie £6.3m +) then what we see today ie at 10^th October.

Didn’t we have minimums around 7m at end of the melt season then ?

I didn't mean the top 4 since 79, just on the IJIS extent figures. The long term average for this time of year is probably close to 8 million. We'd need a miracle to reach that in the next few days, we'd be doing well to reach it by months end!

Going by J1's excel work, the long term average minimum looks around 6,600,000km2

Something that seems quite odd is that the CT area figures for the Arctic have been moving further from average these last few days, and were now nearly back to 1.5million km2 below where we should be. Meanwhile in Antarctica, ice continues to grow when it should be melting and is now nearly 500,000km2 above average, though still not close to it point it reached nearly 2 months ago.

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

Latest video diary of global sea ice situation from Joe B:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/624373716001/monday-morning-sea-ice-report.asp

Y.S

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi Folks,

Latest video diary of global sea ice situation from Joe B:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/624373716001/monday-morning-sea-ice-report.asp

Y.S

That's from last week YS!

[stewfox]

I didn't mean the top 4 since 79, just on the IJIS extent figures. The long term average for this time of year is probably close to 8 million. We'd need a miracle to reach that in the next few days, we'd be doing well to reach it by months end!

At current rate of increase very possible.

111, followed by 138 and maybe 140 today (with upward revision )

Could be 6.6m by end of day

That would be a respectable 73k gain per day till end month to reach 8m

Still happy with my 8m by 23rd 127k a day

[BornFromTheVoid]

At current rate of increase very possible.

111, followed by 138 and maybe 140 today (with upward revision )

Could be 6.6m by end of day

That would be a respectable 73k gain per day till end month to reach 8m

Still happy with my 8m by 23rd 127k a day

You certainly could be right. 2008 managed 131,000km2/day from the 10th-25th, so we could get 127k/day to achieve your guess easily enough.

Plenty more ice growth along the Laptev and Kara coast lines and within the Canadian Archipelago. Ice still failing to make any growth at the border of the Laptev and East Siberian sea where an area of high SSTAs still remain.