Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[Gray-Wolf]

We are unlikely to spend more than a few hours on a "30 odd thousand day" as the second update will probably increase it dramatically as they have done every day for weeks. With the largest daily increase this month recorded just yesterday ~148,000 sqm, to suddenly start calling the situation perilous after only the first update of the day is alarmist!

Behave!, if we look at the IJIS plot you'll see that ,from here on in, we need 100+ days just to stay within that tight bunch.

As I've always maintained it is not the 'extent/area ' of the ice that serves it the following year but it's thickness/ice type. We are still bleeding out the 'best' ice type/thickness through Fram/Nares/C.A. so every days 'gains' of newly formed ,F.Y. ice has to balanced by the loss of ice that has weathered up to 5 summers (no more ' old ice' in the Basin unless you count the 'Ward hunt' quarter that broke off in Aug).

I'm certainly not at the point where I would confidently 'call' the winters re-build but would say that ,at present, it is nothing special?

Remember the IJIS only has plots of the 8 'worst years' of ice across the Basin (strangely the past 8 years?) so to gauge how we are doing really we'd need to look at the 70's/80's autumn/winters 'ice build' plots.

As for your 'name calling/labelling', do you not find the Arctic situation 'alarming'? if not , why not?

Edited October 18, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[WindWatcher]

Behave!, if we look at the IJIS plot you'll see that ,from here on in, we need 100+ days just to stay within that tight bunch.

As I've always maintained it is not the 'extent/area ' of the ice that serves it the following year but it's thickness/ice type. We are still bleeding out the 'best' ice type/thickness through Fram/Nares/C.A. so every days 'gains' of newly formed ,F.Y. ice has to balanced by the loss of ice that has weathered up to 5 summers (no more ' old ice' in the Basin unless you count the 'Ward hunt' quarter that broke off in Aug).

I'm certainly not at the point where I would confidently 'call' the winters re-build but would say that ,at present, it is nothing special?

Remember the IJIS only has plots of the 8 'worst years' of ice across the Basin (strangely the past 8 years?) so to gauge how we are doing really we'd need to look at the 70's/80's autumn/winters 'ice build' plots.

As for your 'name calling/labelling', do you not find the Arctic situation 'alarming'? if not , why not?

You were clearly referring to ice extent and calling a situation perilous after one partial daily update. No name calling, merely saying such statements are Alarmist and I stand by that given the evidence given in your post was only today's small increase. You would be first to criticise someone saying the problems were over after yesterdays 148,000 increase.

[Gray-Wolf]

You were clearly referring to ice extent and calling a situation perilous after one partial daily update. No name calling, merely saying such statements are Alarmist and I stand by that given the evidence given in your post was only today's small increase. You would be first to criticise someone saying the problems were over after yesterdays 148,000 increase.

"I think we're approaching a perilous time for those who are graph watching"

The above is a lifted section of the post. you'll see that I'm saying we are 'approaching' a'perilous time' but only for those folk who are 'graph watching'.

Where do 'I' appear 'alarmist' when I'm refering to a small group of folk (who do make me smile nontheless) who appear to live by the lines on a 15% or more graph?

Anyhoo's , you are avoiding the question I posed to you.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the concentration images it's difficult to see why we've had such a small gain so far today. The only area of loss seems to be between the Laptev and East Siberian seas where those southerly mild winds have arrived and have pushed the main ice pack back a little.

Today is when we should get what now looks like a brief, 3 day pulse of strong winds through Fram, not enough to do a whole lot of melt, but still a good test of how mobile the pack is after a months worth of re-freezing.

[stewfox]

r this is the end of the ice as we know it

You were clearly referring to ice extent and calling a situation perilous after one partial daily update. No name calling, merely saying such statements are Alarmist and I stand by that given the evidence given in your post was only today's small increase. You would be first to criticise someone saying the problems were over after yesterdays 148,000 increase.

Partial update today of only 34,219 Maybe Two views

1) I fear this is the end of the ice as we now know it to be sure , we are at edge of the precipice . The view is bleak ,the out look is sure no more ice now for another week or more ?. Is this the end of the beginning ?. Are we going to have more open water at summers end that flush the remaining ice from the basin ? Left with a core of ice that hugs on for dear life to the shores of Northern Greenland and Canada.

2) Alternatively a small gain yesterday

Take your pick

[WindWatcher]

"I think we're approaching a perilous time for those who are graph watching"

The above is a lifted section of the post. you'll see that I'm saying we are 'approaching' a'perilous time' but only for those folk who are 'graph watching'.

Where do 'I' appear 'alarmist' when I'm refering to a small group of folk (who do make me smile nontheless) who appear to live by the lines on a 15% or more graph?

Anyhoo's , you are avoiding the question I posed to you.

Ahh thank god for that, I thought you were actually talking about the ice, and not just the graph watchers. I don't think I will leave the house today, if it is that perilous out there for me! I'm glad we cleared that up :wacko:

[barrel1234]

we might struggle with growth around greenland too this week due to mild conditions, its looking like it may have some potential for a freeze next weekend when colder air might make a return.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcsj18/sj18-1111-e-grn-n.html

If you look at the top right of this image you can see the ice floes peeling apart to the north of Fram. As with the 'scalloping' at the mouth of Nares I think that only a drift away, into open water, can take the stresses off the pack this way.

I think some of the omages we'll get from Wokingham over the next couple of days will confirm this;

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

In fact ,lets have a little experiment!

As we know Antarctic 'sea ice' is all F.Y. ice and melts awy over summer. It is what you'd expect the Arctic ice to become like once we settle into a 'seasonal pack'. Here is the ice currently in front of Ross ice shelf (embayment);

and here is a glimpse of the area north Greenland to the pole;

any similarities in floe shapes and break up patterns?

[jethro]

Cut the sarcasm folks, it does nothing more than wind folk up and take over threads. Of course, if this is the intention behind such posts, I'm sure you'd find it a bit of a wind up to be taking an enforced holiday from this area.

[WindWatcher]

IJIS now updated to a more respectable 84,688 increase.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A very low initial figure today of just 27,000km2 gained. So we're back to 3rd lowest until the update this afternoon. I'm expecting some rather large gains in the next 2 days across the East Siberian and Laptev sea as calm winds, very cold uppers and surface temperatures of around -30C move in from Eastern Siberia.

We then have the trade off with ice being driven out through Fram, though it only looks like lasting about another 2 days at its current strength so is unlikely to cause much damage.

It remains for a few days more but is much weaker then and less likely to peg back extent growth a whole lot. After that the models toy with the idea of it strengthening again but we'll have to wait to get a clearer idea on that...

[WindWatcher]

We then have the trade off with ice being driven out through Fram, though it only looks like lasting about another 2 days at its current strength so is unlikely to cause much damage.

It remains for a few days more but is much weaker then and less likely to peg back extent growth a whole lot. After that the models toy with the idea of it strengthening again but we'll have to wait to get a clearer idea on that...

There was an excellent question and subsequent answers in the learning area, which I had missed until it was accidentally bumped yesterday. So in case anyone else hasn't spotted it, this is the link Tight pressure gradient around Greenland so why aren't the winds very strong?

I have often looked at the charts and thought there must be a howling gale through Fram, but the ice barely moves, now we know what may affect it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There was an excellent question and subsequent answers in the learning area, which I had missed until it was accidentally bumped yesterday. So in case anyone else hasn't spotted it, this is the link Tight pressure gradient around Greenland so why aren't the winds very strong?

I have often looked at the charts and thought there must be a howling gale through Fram, but the ice barely moves, now we know what may affect it.

I think this situation is a little different (although I can't be sure as the posted images aren't available on the link...), but this is a proper Artcic high connected with Greenland and a strong depression near Svalbard.

The wind speed map shows strong winds at least...

An interesting link all the same though. I guess the winds would be stronger if that same set up was a little closer to the equator but it's still strong enough to push the ice south IMO.

[Gray-Wolf]

I also think we need to understand that a more fragmented pack will answer the beck and call of the wind better than a contiguous ice sheet. If you run the image in this blog (can't cut and paste it...Doh!) you'll see how from the 13th onwards there is quite a spurt on the ice extent in Fram. This is obviously not 're-freeze' and may have something to do with the leasions (ripping appart of the ice fragments) we saw on the Wokingham images;

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

[barrel1234]

Joe bastar(di)'s new monday ice report, Good old Joe.

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS has updated, yesterdays gain now stands at almost 97,000km2... which is still slightly below recent averages, but not too bad!

Anyway, a bit too far off to call yet, but no clear signal as to who's gonna be closest with the 8 million guess!

Stewfox 23rd October

NorthNorfolkWeather 23rd October

NaDamantaSam 28th October

Anybody willing to make a guess go ahead! We're guessing when we'll reach 6 million (past), 8 million, 10 million, 12 million and the overall max including the date it occurs. Winner gets to say "I told you so!"

[Gray-Wolf]

8 million looks like the 26th? (maybe we'll have losses and slow it to Nov 1st?)

Once the 'basin is 'full' (4 mill, area, not extent?) that's when the 'guessing' will be involved methinks?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

8 million looks like the 26th? (maybe we'll have losses and slow it to Nov 1st?)

Good Grief,

(For once) I agree with GW (on it being the 26th)!!

Edited October 19, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[BornFromTheVoid]

8 million looks like the 26th? (maybe we'll have losses and slow it to Nov 1st?)

Once the 'basin is 'full' (4 mill, area, not extent?) that's when the 'guessing' will be involved methinks?

You've made 1 guess, why not have a go at them all!?

Good Grief,

(For once) I agree with GW (on it being the 26th)!!

I have to say I'd agree with that too, but we've already made our guesses...

Anyway, the 12Z shows the Fram Express moving up a gear in about 5 days time after a brief slowdown.

[Gray-Wolf]

I honestly think it no more than guesswork beyond the basin NDS?

The recent 'speed' in the refreeze of Hudson (or the Great lakes partial freeze or the Baltic) over recent seasons are all part of 'weather' and not climate [yet]) and that (for me) just makes it a gamble.

Some notion on how slowly the basin now re-freezes, compared to the 60's or 70's might be more of a 'do-able' thing but not the rest.

For me figuring out the final re-freeze of the East Siberian sea is impossible!!!

Anyhows, 8 million (extent) is just a straight line projection of an existing graph...........secrets out!

Edited October 19, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I have to say I'd agree with that too, but we've already made our guesses...

Anyway, the 12Z shows the Fram Express moving up a gear in about 5 days time after a brief slowdown.

I know, I was (really) pointing out that I don't mind being wrong once in a while.

Although, looking at the ice there should be some big gains over the next couple of days , as you say because of the cold coming off Siberia towards the basin.

never mind we shall see

And I agree with you, C'mon GW, lets have some predictions -- more than a week in advance, only as a bit of fun

Just seen your reply GW, c'mon, you can do better than that

Edited October 19, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[MR EXTREMES]

Joe bastar(di)'s new monday ice report, Good old Joe.

http://www.accuweath...hannel=vbbastaj

yeah i do like him hes fantasic bloke and has some valid points i also think that many underestimate how much a recovery could happen.

10mil by november 28th:whistling:

[barrel1234]

8 million by the 24th, slightly nervous on this as warm air around greenland could hold it back, but could be more than compensated by the seberia side

Edited October 19, 2010 by barrel1234

[Gray-Wolf]

'Sat Era' plots for ice levels;

Courtesy of 'tamino' ( http://tamino.wordpr...gone/#more-3058 ) but lifted from 'another place'

And a close up?;

Brings this years rebuild into a better perspective methinks?

Edited October 20, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

'Sat Era' plots for ice levels;

Courtesy of 'tamino' but lifted from 'another place'

Brings this years rebuild into a better perspective methinks?

So how many years does this cover? and what is it about the source that makes it "another place" rather than telling us? Haven't been naughty and looking at WUWT have you?