Winter Forecast Now Online

[yamkin]

1. The earth continues to cool due to low sun spot numbers. All time low - scientists are baffled. This Solar activity has been confirmed by NASA.

2. Ocean Currents: NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicts La Nina (COLD) for this winter.

3. Arctic Bewick swans have arrived at Slimbridge Wetland Centre in Gloucestershire, signaling the start of winter. Arriving two weeks earlier than

last year I predict an even colder winter.

4. Do you remember the incredible Icelandic Volcano eruptions? The residue is currently blocking out the little sunlight we have in the atmosphere.)

5. The shrinking of the earths upper atmosphere (also has scientists baffled.)

6. The Gulf Stream: If there is no major improvement in warmer currents, then this will also signal a severe winter.

7. The La Nina affect delivers ocean cooling within the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. It is increasing in strength and will result in

spreading to the Northern Hemisphere.

UK Winter Weather Warning - 2010/2011 Forecast http://actualeurope.info/science/video.76sS7bqw9Z8.media

Edited October 26, 2010 by yamkin

[Isolated Frost]

1. The earth continues to cool due to low sun spot numbers. All time low - scientists are baffled. This Solar activity has been confirmed by NASA.

2. Ocean Currents: NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicts La Nina (COLD) for this winter.

3. Arctic Bewick swans have arrived at Slimbridge Wetland Centre in Gloucestershire, signaling the start of winter. Arriving two weeks earlier than

last year I predict an even colder winter.

4. Do you remember the incredible Icelandic Volcano eruptions? The residue is currently blocking out the little sunlight we have in the atmosphere.)

5. The shrinking of the earths upper atmosphere (also has scientists baffled.)

6. The Gulf Stream: If there is no major improvement in warmer currents, then this will also signal a severe winter.

7. The La Nina affect delivers ocean cooling within the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. It is increasing in strength and will result in

spreading to the Northern Hemisphere.

UK Winter Weather Warning - 2010/2011 Forecast http://actualeurope....sS7bqw9Z8.media

Regarding La Nina, it gives cold to the West Pacific, but does it give cold to Western Europe, I remember seeing some anomaly maps showing that in a La Nina winter, there were significantly higher temperatures here in Western Europe.

The Earth is warming. Not cooling. As much as I'd like it to cool, it isn't happening.

Shrinking of the Earth's upper Atmosphere? Haven't heard about that yet, may need to look it up.

So, only 3 & 6 seem valid for me.

3 = Nature, showing that Siberia is currently colder, not the UK.

6 = I'm unsure, about this, but wouldn't it take quite a while before we would see the affects of this?

I think that this would probably be more suitable for the Winter 2010/11 thread, not this one.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Regarding La Nina, it gives cold to the West Pacific, but does it give cold to Western Europe, I remember seeing some anomaly maps showing that in a La Nina winter, there were significantly higher temperatures here in Western Europe.

The Earth is warming. Not cooling. As much as I'd like it to cool, it isn't happening.

Shrinking of the Earth's upper Atmosphere? Haven't heard about that yet, may need to look it up.

So, only 3 & 6 seem valid for me.

3 = Nature, showing that Siberia is currently colder, not the UK.

6 = I'm unsure, about this, but wouldn't it take quite a while before we would see the affects of this?

I think that this would probably be more suitable for the Winter 2010/11 thread, not this one.

La Nina's like El Nino's don't necessarily give warm or cold winters to Western Europe. It depends on other factors. Late 80s and 90s and early 00s for sure one would have thought last years El Nino would bring mild mild mild...it didn't. They set a base state but other factors determine the position of the jet, blocking HPs etc.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

1. The earth continues to cool due to low sun spot numbers.

Does it? Wasn't September one of the warmest ever, globally?? So, f the earth's not actually cooling at all (at least not according to the data?) how can one worry about attribution?

That said, if the globe does (sometime in the future) suddenly start cooling, an explanation will of-course become necessary...

[chionomaniac]

GP,

Having thought about your winter forecast I was wondering how you arrived at the drier than average part. I know that you are suggesting that we will see more mid - latitude blocking, but how do you arrive that this will be centered close enough to the UK to cause us to be significantly drier than average? Was this using previous years or a combination of composite GWO analogue for the phases that you expect the GWO to be positioned this winter. When I have looked in detail at the MJO composite analogues to forecast for this winter I see a variety of situations ( but rarely any HLB) with a mixture of wet and dry (concentrating on strong/moderate La Nina years). For me, every mid latitude block will have a mid latitude further down or up stream and it could well be this that we find ourselves under.

Thanks

c

[Glacier Point]

Another of factors went into that drier than average call.

I expect tropical forcing to be centred in the Indian Martime and far west Pacific which is consistent with a well defined Nina circualtion pattern. If you look at the MJO composites for phases 4-5-6 you'll get a handle on where the mid latitude blocks willl set up.

The GWO phases I'm expecting are mainly 2-3 orbits, which teleconnect to mid latitude signals just to the west of the UK which should cut out any substantial frontal activity.

Finally, the increasing colder polar stratosphere and upper level westerlies should allow for polar flow to sink the block from mid January onwards. Basically we will have a pattern which wants to go cold but can't - a classic signal for anticyclonic conditions across the mid latitudes.

[chionomaniac]

I too had expected that the MJO composites for phases 4/5/6 would best reflect the likely pattern for this coming winter. After all, tropical convection in any MJO wave is likely to hit a brick wall when crossing La Nina waters. However when looking at previous years that is not necessarily the case as I would have expected - it has kind of thrown a spanner in the works of any possible winter forecast I was thinking of making.

For example 1975/76 a positive QBO strong La Nina year I wouldn't have expected a winter MJO profile as this:

What you suggest makes perfect sense btw.

Edited October 27, 2010 by chionomaniac

[heatandsnow]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, and have done abit of LRFing on the metmonkeys forum.

I thought I'd post ot, but I may well be wrong, however I do state my reasons.

November: Mildish start, progressively colder and snowier. Confidence 90%

Ave. max. temp. South: or

Ave. min. temp. South: or

Ave. max. temp. North: or

Ave. min. temp. North: or

December: Snowy, cold and frosty throughout the month, probably afew milder incursions, but that won't effect the overall temps. too much. Coldest in the East, and in relation to the long term averages, the South East will get the lowest temps, although the actual coldest temps (obviously) in Scotland Snowiest in East midlands and North West Scotland confidence about 80%

Ave. max. temp. South: or

Ave. min. temp. South: to

Ave. max. temp. North: or

Ave. min. temp. North: to

Januray: Snowiest month, potentially the coldest month. Again, coldest temps in the East, but the big snowfalls in the South East, and the midlands, and Scotland (maybe Wales) Very cold start and middle, although things will probably turn mildER at some point towards the end of the month. Nevertheless there will still be at least average or slightly below average temps. Confidence 75%

Ave. max. temp. South: to

Ave. min. temp. South: to

Ave. max. temp. North: to

Ave. min. temp. North: to

February: This month is a big question mark for me! In my eyes, it could turn out slightly milder than average OR it could turn out to be FREEZING and the coldest month of the Winter in terms of temps. The cold pattern bringing in cold arctic or siberian air or snowy Eastern air from Germany, that will persist through from late November to late January will either bring one last huge FREEZEE or it could stop and things will turn Westerly and mild, with maybe afew snowy days, but mild and rainy generally, so very confusing!I do however think that whatever happens, things will be generally settled throughout, nearly as quiet as December! Confidence 50% (very confusing month)

Ave. max. temp. South: or OR or

Ave. min. temp. South: to OR to

Ave. max. temp. North: to OR to

Ave. min. temp. North: to OR to

My reasons for this are that there is very low solar activity, this year, la Nina may well play a big part in generally holding back temperatures, something quite interesting is that every 16 years, there is a noteably cold one, 1995, 1979, 1963 and 1947. And now 2011? The past 2 Winters have been chronologically colder each year, and this year could be the 3rd in the beginning of a cooler Winter phase. Ice caps are increasing! The Arctic ice has grown so any air from the North will be particularly potent! The gulf stream is weaking and tracking further South, so this could mean that Northern blocking may become evident and lead to Northern and Eastern winds.

[Isolated Frost]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, and have done abit of LRFing on the metmonkeys forum.

I thought I'd post ot, but I may well be wrong, however I do state my reasons.

November: Mildish start, progressively colder and snowier. Confidence 90%

Ave. max. temp. South: or

Ave. min. temp. South: or

Ave. max. temp. North: or

Ave. min. temp. North: or

December: Snowy, cold and frosty throughout the month, probably afew milder incursions, but that won't effect the overall temps. too much. Coldest in the East, and in relation to the long term averages, the South East will get the lowest temps, although the actual coldest temps (obviously) in Scotland Snowiest in East midlands and North West Scotland confidence about 80%

Ave. max. temp. South: or

Ave. min. temp. South: to

Ave. max. temp. North: or

Ave. min. temp. North: to

Januray: Snowiest month, potentially the coldest month. Again, coldest temps in the East, but the big snowfalls in the South East, and the midlands, and Scotland (maybe Wales) Very cold start and middle, although things will probably turn mildER at some point towards the end of the month. Nevertheless there will still be at least average or slightly below average temps. Confidence 75%

Ave. max. temp. South: to

Ave. min. temp. South: to

Ave. max. temp. North: to

Ave. min. temp. North: to

February: This month is a big question mark for me! In my eyes, it could turn out slightly milder than average OR it could turn out to be FREEZING and the coldest month of the Winter in terms of temps. The cold pattern bringing in cold arctic or siberian air or snowy Eastern air from Germany, that will persist through from late November to late January will either bring one last huge FREEZEE or it could stop and things will turn Westerly and mild, with maybe afew snowy days, but mild and rainy generally, so very confusing!I do however think that whatever happens, things will be generally settled throughout, nearly as quiet as December! Confidence 50% (very confusing month)

Ave. max. temp. South: or OR or

Ave. min. temp. South: to OR to

Ave. max. temp. North: to OR to

Ave. min. temp. North: to OR to

My reasons for this are that there is very low solar activity, this year, la Nina may well play a big part in generally holding back temperatures, something quite interesting is that every 16 years, there is a noteably cold one, 1995, 1979, 1963 and 1947. And now 2011? The past 2 Winters have been chronologically colder each year, and this year could be the 3rd in the beginning of a cooler Winter phase. Ice caps are increasing! The Arctic ice has grown so any air from the North will be particularly potent! The gulf stream is weaking and tracking further South, so this could mean that Northern blocking may become evident and lead to Northern and Eastern winds.

80% chance in December, Ice Caps are increasing, JET stream is moving south, Northern Blocking more evident?

I must say that is very optimistic, and you may want to re-assess -6C minima in 'The North', wherever that is!

Love to see it happen though!

[SNOW GO]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, and have done abit of LRFing on the metmonkeys forum.

I thought I'd post ot, but I may well be wrong, however I do state my reasons.

November: Mildish start, progressively colder and snowier. Confidence 90%

Ave. max. temp. South: or

Ave. min. temp. South: or

Ave. max. temp. North: or

Ave. min. temp. North: or

December: Snowy, cold and frosty throughout the month, probably afew milder incursions, but that won't effect the overall temps. too much. Coldest in the East, and in relation to the long term averages, the South East will get the lowest temps, although the actual coldest temps (obviously) in Scotland Snowiest in East midlands and North West Scotland confidence about 80%

Ave. max. temp. South: or

Ave. min. temp. South: to

Ave. max. temp. North: or

Ave. min. temp. North: to

Januray: Snowiest month, potentially the coldest month. Again, coldest temps in the East, but the big snowfalls in the South East, and the midlands, and Scotland (maybe Wales) Very cold start and middle, although things will probably turn mildER at some point towards the end of the month. Nevertheless there will still be at least average or slightly below average temps. Confidence 75%

Ave. max. temp. South: to

Ave. min. temp. South: to

Ave. max. temp. North: to

Ave. min. temp. North: to

February: This month is a big question mark for me! In my eyes, it could turn out slightly milder than average OR it could turn out to be FREEZING and the coldest month of the Winter in terms of temps. The cold pattern bringing in cold arctic or siberian air or snowy Eastern air from Germany, that will persist through from late November to late January will either bring one last huge FREEZEE or it could stop and things will turn Westerly and mild, with maybe afew snowy days, but mild and rainy generally, so very confusing!I do however think that whatever happens, things will be generally settled throughout, nearly as quiet as December! Confidence 50% (very confusing month)

Ave. max. temp. South: or OR or

Ave. min. temp. South: to OR to

Ave. max. temp. North: to OR to

Ave. min. temp. North: to OR to

My reasons for this are that there is very low solar activity, this year, la Nina may well play a big part in generally holding back temperatures, something quite interesting is that every 16 years, there is a noteably cold one, 1995, 1979, 1963 and 1947. And now 2011? The past 2 Winters have been chronologically colder each year, and this year could be the 3rd in the beginning of a cooler Winter phase. Ice caps are increasing! The Arctic ice has grown so any air from the North will be particularly potent! The gulf stream is weaking and tracking further South, so this could mean that Northern blocking may become evident and lead to Northern and Eastern winds.

Welcome to the forum heatandsnow nice to see you on here as well as Met Monkey a very good and well explained forecast in my view.

Edited October 28, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Eugene]

According to GP it looks like we should write off this winter and next summer, he seems very confident regarding this winter.

[Costa Del Fal]

According to GP it looks like we should write off this winter and next summer, he seems very confident regarding this winter.

Yep, a total write off, completely boring and snowless. In reality, Yep, youve made a totally useless comment yet again. Funny how you always look for the negatives (extremes) that are always far out as well which never come to fruition.

Edited October 28, 2010 by Blizzards

[johnholmes]

According to GP it looks like we should write off this winter and next summer, he seems very confident regarding this winter.

I think it would be a good idea Eugene if you actually read and take on board what has been posted.

Maybe you could enlighten us all with your view of what may happen this winter?

Edited October 28, 2010 by johnholmes

[Cheese Rice]

 At face value the forecast issued by Net Weather does sound a little boring . If the forecast was mainly low pressure dominant I wouldn't really be looking forward to it. Seen as it's high pressure dominant the position of the highs will constantly change, which in due course should open the gates to any Northerly or Easterly blasts. So overall I'm very happy with the forecast, and despite some members not been overly pleased. This forecast -or any forecast- shouldn't be taken at face value. 

Edited October 28, 2010 by 10123

[ZONE 51]

I must say that is very optimistic, and you may want to re-assess -6C minima in 'The North', wherever that is!

Night temps min adverage i would think he means, clear frosty arctic or siberian air, i would expect to see -10 on many nights in the cold spots north -20 in the most prone spots, the south especially SE -5 many nights, -8 in rural areas even -12 on some nights., December.

Heatandsnow i like your forecast, i think december is a dry month, but very frosty with snow shrs, that can give large falls even though ppn is low, 1ince of rain =4 inces of snow i had read,

[heatandsnow]

Thanks, it's nice to know I'm welcome here aswell!

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks, it's nice to know I'm welcome here aswell!

Of course you're welcome here!

However, what's with the ?

[heatandsnow]

I couldn't find a different smiley face! :lol:

[Isolated Frost]

I couldn't find a different smiley face! :lol:

LOL. What about or !

[heatandsnow]

I didn't realise there were anymore options. :lol:

[Isolated Frost]

I didn't realise there were anymore options. :lol:

LOL! Scroll down the Emoticons on the right side.

I know you of MetMonkey.

[New Ice Age]

These are the reasons that it will be the coldest and snowiest winter since 1683-84, I think it could possibly be worse.

La Nina - Which gives cold weather and very snowy weather

Gulf Stream - It makes us warmer, but now it's gone, we will always get heavy snow each winter and it'll make our climate like Russia

Jet Stream - It is in Spain this winter, so we will get Arctic and Siberian winds all the time

And other things like NAO and stuff.

I think the CET in December will be -3.1C

January -5.3C

February -5.8C

I have about 90% confidence in December and January and 80% in February.

[camiscool]

Are you sure about that new ice age?

[Isolated Frost]

Are you sure about that new ice age?

Oh, he's sure

[Costa Del Fal]

These are the reasons that it will be the coldest and snowiest winter since 1683-84, I think it could possibly be worse.

La Nina - Which gives cold weather and very snowy weather

Gulf Stream - It makes us warmer, but now it's gone, we will always get heavy snow each winter and it'll make our climate like Russia

Jet Stream - It is in Spain this winter, so we will get Arctic and Siberian winds all the time

And other things like NAO and stuff.

I think the CET in December will be -3.1C

January -5.3C

February -5.8C

I have about 90% confidence in December and January and 80% in February.

I do believe this will happen...in my dreams! :lol: