December CET

[stewfox]

Even Crosby recorded -12.4C at 10pm, which is phenomenal.

I think it may just be outside the CET zone however.

Dec 1890 was as we know the coldest December in the CET zone which started like this year with a cold end of November.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=6544&start=1

There were 8 nights of sub 25f (York) . I'm not sure if thats in the CET traingle but if we can get some really low temps ,and continued cold would still be possible.

[Cymro]

Tomorrow's cet will slam at the cet for this month with minima widely down to -15 in places in the CET zone especially the western half and with temps not progged to rise above -5(bbc) for the western half of the CET zone tomorrow and eastern half only managing -2's. If this were to continue for a good part of next week I dont see why a record breaking cold december isn't possible.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Tomorrow's cet will slam at the cet for this month with minima widely down to -15 in places in the CET zone especially the western half and with temps not progged to rise above -5(bbc) for the western half of the CET zone tomorrow and eastern half only managing -2's. If this were to continue for a good part of next week I dont see why a record breaking cold december isn't possible.

But the question is, is it forecast to?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

-16.3C at Pershore at midnight, now that's just silly!

Whats the record low daily CET?

[Cymro]

But the question is, is it forecast to?

Very much so!

[AderynCoch]

-16.3C at Pershore at midnight, now that's just silly!

Whats the record low daily CET?

-11.9C (20th January 1838)

Lowest CET minimum is -15.9C (13th December 1981) and the lowest CET maximum is -5.7C (12th January 1987).

[Paul T]

Are you saying that both if the record CET mins and max"s both occurred in the 80"s!?

If I was a betting man, I would say the min on the 19th (aka tonight) will be -8.0oc.

The cet could crash over the next few days....a couple of means at -2 would give a a negative value with only a week to go.

We are on the edge of history; but it is the edge that separates potential from reality

[AderynCoch]

Are you saying that both if the record CET mins and max"s both occurred in the 80"s!?

Yes, though those series only go back to 1878 as opposed to the daily series (1772) and monthly series (1659).

Still impressive though. I wonder if we can get a -10C CET minimum tonight? We haven't had one of those since January 1982...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Still impressive though. I wonder if we can get a -10C CET minimum tonight? We haven't had one of those since January 1982...

-18C in Pershore at the moment, so that will certainly help!

[reef]

-18C in Pershore at the moment, so that will certainly help!

It was down to -19.2C at 05:00. Could be a -20C there at this rate. That'll definitely help the CET min figure for today!

[Weather-history]

Lowest daily CET means

-11.9C 20th Jan 1838

-10.8C 25th Dec 1796

-9.3C 4th Jan 1867

-9.2C 8th Jan 1841

-8.9C 25th Jan 1795

-8.9C 19th Jan 1823

-8.8C 9th Feb 1816

-8.5C 15th Jan 1820

-8.5C 12th Dec 1981

-8.4C 27th Dec 1798

-8.4C 23rd Jan 1963

[West is Best]

Lowest daily CET means

-11.9C 20th Jan 1838

-10.8C 25th Dec 1796

-9.3C 4th Jan 1867

-9.2C 8th Jan 1841

-8.9C 25th Jan 1795

-8.9C 19th Jan 1823

-8.8C 9th Feb 1816

-8.5C 15th Jan 1820

-8.5C 12th Dec 1981

-8.4C 27th Dec 1798

-8.4C 23rd Jan 1963

Even without counting the update from yesterday which will already take a hit it'll only take a couple of days averaging -5C in the CET zone for us to go into negative territory for the month. It's heading towards that record. All depends on the final 4 or 5 days of the month.

[Cymro]

Anybody fancy these temps?

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20101219/06/39/ukmintemp.png

Going by that Wales could very easily beat the all time record of -23.3 in Rheadr Powys.

Some record breakingly low temps right across the uk. Truly magnificent.

[Stu_London]

If the 06z gets anywhere near verification, then sub zero is certain and coldest ever is almost nailed on. The high res period (to the 27th) has a mean of about -4.5C

Edited December 19, 2010 by Stu_London

[Backtrack]

What is the CET up to the 19th December?

[Nick L]

If the 06z gets anywhere near verification, then sub zero is certain and coldest ever is almost nailed on. The high res period (to the 27th) has a mean of about -4.5C

This is just unbelievable. After all those years of torment and certain posters going into great detail of how just sub-3c is virtually impossible, to read "sub zero is certain" and "coldest ever is nailed on" is just crazy.

[Stu_London]

What is the CET up to the 19th December?

The figure for the 19th wont be released until tomorrow 11.30am ish

The figure up to the 18th will be out soon. (these include the minimum for the 19th i.e. last night)

[Backtrack]

The figure for the 19th wont be released until tomorrow 11.30am ish

The figure up to the 18th will be out soon. (these include the minimum for the 19th i.e. last night)

Thanks Stu.

If the models keep pushing the mild(er) weather back (It's almost non-existent now, it's replaced by a Northerly) then I am certain of a sub-zero CET.

[Stu_London]

CET to the 18th is 0.3C

Yesterday came in at -2.6C

Last night was -10.4C

Good chance we will be back to 0C or below by tomorrow.

[snowingman]

The next 3 nights could well be the COLDEST average MINIMUM for a 3 day period in HISTORY!!

In N Ireland and Wales/East Midlands we are looking at average night time temperatures of -18/-20, no doubt records will tumble in the next 3 days.

Maximum temperatures of -8C will mean averages of -13C.

This would blow the CET to bit!! never to be repeated. :smiliz23:

[Stu_London]

06z (if verified) would probably see us at about -0.8C after boxing day.

4.2C per day thereafter needed to get back to above 0C (assuming no adjustment at month end)

[Nick L]

06z (if verified) would probably see us at about -0.8C after boxing day.

4.2C per day thereafter needed to get back to above 0C (assuming no adjustment at month end)

Going through the GFS 06z shows the maximum temperatures hardly rising above freezing at all through the entire run in the CET zone!

[Stu_London]

Going through the GFS 06z shows the maximum temperatures hardly rising above freezing at all through the entire run in the CET zone!

I dont think we can rule out sub -1.5C yet, although that would be quite a dry scenario. The more ppn we get the nearer -0.5C we will be, I suspect.

[kold weather]

A word of warning though, about 75-80% of the ensembles show a big warm up like the ECM from the 26th onwards so I think we probably need to work with the assumption that we are going to get a 5 day period close to 6-8C range rather then the 06z idea...

Therefore 0.2-0.7C most likely landing range IMO.

[Weather-history]

Last night was -10.4C

.

Is that the lowest for December since 1981 and the lowest for any month since January 1982?