December CET

[Optimus Prime]

Even if we're 0.2c by the 25th and every day after that averaged 8.0c;

26th 0.5c

27th 0.8c

28th 1.0c

29th 1.3c

30th 1.5c

31st 1.7c

Still be 3.0c below on the cool 61-90 norm. 8.0c from Boxing day onwards will be far too high.

[Isolated Frost]

So, -0.8C in 1890 was the lowest CET, but what were the Lowest UK Mean Temperatures for December?

0.1C in 1981.

0.7C in 1890.

1.4C in 1976.

1.5C in 1927

1.7C in 1995.

Coldest UK December ever is well on track, Scotland and N England have had larger cold anomalies.

[stewfox]

Not sure how the scoring works except for 10% penalty per day, but without the three marked late entries, I had a safe zone from 0.0 to 1.2 ... counting the late entries, that safe zone shrinks to 0.2 to 1.1.

I would have thought any entries more then a day late dont count ?

Far too early to see how its going to turn out. Anything beyond T96, even trends are too hard to call.

We should be back to 0 or below by T96

[Weather-history]

Here's a remarkable quirk

2006: 6.4

2007: 4.9

2008: 3.5

2009: 3.1

2010: sub 3.1C at least

A run of 5 consecutive Decembers with each being colder than the predecessor.

January and February (2007-10) have followed this trend, surely they both can't be colder than their predecessor.

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/bristol_forecast_weather.html

Given that Bristol is the bottom left "corner" of the Central England triangle, I thought this link might be interesting and add some grist to the mill!

Apart from Monday, which will reach 1c, the temperature is not set to rise above freezing for the next 5 days. Monday and Tuesday nights looking especially cold.

Also, Bristol being a large-ish city, the temperatures are that little bit higher than the more rural areas, so the December CET is going to be well low!

Could we be on for an ice "week" and how rare would that be?

Edited December 18, 2010 by noggin

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Here's a remarkable quirk

2006: 6.4

2007: 4.9

2008: 3.5

2009: 3.1

2010: sub 3.1C at least

A run of 5 consecutive Decembers with each being colder than the predecessor.

January and February (2007-10) have followed this trend, surely they both can't be colder than their predecessor.

I'm not suggesting a cause and effect link here, but an interesting chart for sunspots for cycle 23, and we are not yet back to 2006 levels

Quote from here "Cycle 21 started in June 1976 with a smoothed sunspot number of 12.2. Cycle 22 started in September 1986 at 12.3. Cycle 23 began in May 1996 with the monthly SSN at 8.0 and peaked in April 2000 at 120.8. Cycle 24 began in December 2008 with the monthly SSN at 1.7."

So the SSN for cycle 24 is MUCH lower than the previous 2 cycles, wonder what the CET's were for them....

Edited December 18, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Paul T]

+0.5 to the 17th.

Yesterdays max was 0.2oC.

Todays min is -4.3, so assuming a max today of 0oC we shall be at +0.4oC by the 18th

[StormChaser]

O.k screw all the technical talk , if you want simple terms look out your windows in oxfordshrie *6inchs of snow at least on the ground in Didcot. It has not stoped snowing since 7am this morning!!! :-)

[Weather-history]

The very cold first half to December is going to have an impact on the overall CET for this winter.

Lets say December ends up with a CET of 2C, if January and February were as warm as they were in 1990 then the winter CET would be 5.3 (0.8C above the 1971-2000 average)

[Cymro]

The very cold first half to December is going to have an impact on the overall CET for this winter.

Lets say December ends up with a CET of 2C, if January and February were as warm as they were in 1990 then the winter CET would be 5.3 (0.8C above the 1971-2000 average)

I would say 2 is nigh on ipossible.

And the cfs signals for January is again a cold month.

[West is Best]

+0.5 to the 17th.

Yesterdays max was 0.2oC.

Todays min is -4.3, so assuming a max today of 0oC we shall be at +0.4oC by the 18th

And with some extremely low minima anticipated tonight it's going to head down fast.

[Stu_London]

Could we be on for an ice "week" and how rare would that be?

They are not that uncommon, although in the last 25 years there has been an absense.

We may however be on for the coldest December week in CET history. Will be monitoring this over the next few days.

[The PIT]

I would say 2 is nigh on ipossible.

And the cfs signals for January is again a cold month.

CFS signal just before Dec started was mild after the first week and week later it return to mild. The present synoptic pattern seems to have found a problem with the programming so at the moment I would take it with a pinch of salt. At the moment it is showing cold but the last few runs I've seen have really dashed my belief in the model.

Pity we had a mild spell mid month as this going make it very hard for me to record the coldest ever Dec unless we get very cold nights thrown in as well.

[stewfox]

CFS signal just before Dec started was mild after the first week and week later it return to mild. The present synoptic pattern seems to have found a problem with the programming so at the moment I would take it with a pinch of salt. At the moment it is showing cold but the last few runs I've seen have really dashed my belief in the model.

Pity we had a mild spell mid month as this going make it very hard for me to record the coldest ever Dec unless we get very cold nights thrown in as well.

Obviously it depends what happens post 24th but next few nights should be very cold in CET zone.

Def back in top 5 coldest CET by 24th.

[kold weather]

The ensembles from the GFS by the way are rather hinting at this not being a quick breakdown, unlike the GFS 12z which has the cold air gone by the 27th and very mild for the last 5 days...UKMO not convinced by that either looking at its 12z run.

Either way almost certain this will be a top 3 coldest Decembers since 1900, it just depends on how low we go...

[Weather-history]

Here's that list again

Coldest Decembers on record

-0.8 1890

-0.5 1676

-0.3 1788

-0.3 1796

-0.3 1878

-0.2 1874

0.3 1784

0.3 1981

0.4 1844

0.5 1673

0.5 1678

0.5 1846

0.6 1870

0.7 1879

1.0 1680

1.1 1742

1.1 1791

1.2 1950

1.3 1799

1.3 1840

1.3 1853

1.4 1819

1.4 1829

1.5 1715

1.5 1798

1.5 1801

1.5 1860

1.6 1728

1.6 1822

1.6 1859

1.6 1933

1.7 1765

1.7 1812

1.8 1726

1.8 1830

1.8 1892

1.8 1962

1.9 1807

1.9 1886

1.9 1916

[stewfox]

Here's that list again

Coldest Decembers on record

Here is the link for those who don't know. All years all months.

http://hadobs.metoff...t_mean_sort.txt

Edited December 18, 2010 by stewfox

[West is Best]

Extremely low temperatures already being recorded in CET land. -8C at Pershore at 19h30 for instance. The CET will take a hammering tonight and the next few days.

That -11C at Yeolviton is also rather eye-watering.

[West is Best]

Gosh - keeping an eye on some of these CET temps. At 21h30 Pershore -10C, Hawarden -11C, Manchester -8C

It's going to take a hammering tonight.

Out west Yeovilton still setting the pace with -13C, but the -11C at Exeter Airport is also pretty gob-smacking.

Crikey.

Edited December 18, 2010 by West was Best

[Optimus Prime]

This'll make you laugh...BBC predicted a LOW of -4c for Omagh Northern Ireland...currently sitting at -15.0c! Hahaha

[West is Best]

This'll make you laugh...BBC predicted a LOW of -4c for Omagh Northern Ireland...currently sitting at -15.0c! Hahaha

Yes some serious under-estimates by the BBC/MetO given that Northern Ireland has had the coldest day ever recorded and some other records may go tonight.

I love Rob McElwee! He coolly announced -20C is not hard to achieve tonight and said 'This is the winter you've all been waiting for: a winter of a generation'.

[West is Best]

The lowest ever recorded temperature in Northern Ireland looks to be under serious threat. The -17.5C at Magherally, County Down recorded on 01st January 1979 looks like it may tumble with Castlederg recording -16C at 22h00 in freezing fog and snowfields.

Elsewhere we now have a string of minus double digit readings running up the western heart of the CET zone. Both Shawbury and Pershore are reading -14C at 22h30.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I love Rob McElwee! He coolly announced -20C is not hard to achieve tonight and said 'This is the winter you've all been waiting for: a winter of a generation'.

Yes, saw that forecast, was a belter, and to say "Even as low as -20 could be quite widespread" Could only come from the best forecaster they have on TV.

I'm outside the CET region, but last night my weather station recorded -15.6, tonight is ahead of last night by about 1.5 degrees, so I think I'd struggle for -20 - but still might make -16. Last night was my all time record low.

Do we have expected averages for CET for the next couple of days, I know BFTV has been posting expected monthly averages, but some of the daily ones must be pretty impressive

Edited December 18, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Nick L]

I'm pretty much in the middle of the CET zone, -8.4c already, negative double figures seems inevitable.

[AderynCoch]

Even Crosby recorded -12.4C at 10pm, which is phenomenal.

I think it may just be outside the CET zone however.