Summer 2011

[Milhouse]

I must say that i am really looking forward to the lovely Spring weather next week. It looks like it should be a 'sunny' high, so somewhere could be pushing 20C.

Thats quite possible providing the high hangs around for a while. Its going to start off quite cool but theres always the chance of some warm air getting into the mix as time goes on.

[Bottesford]

Yes yummy looking charts - hope it lasts after the clocks move so can enjoy it during the week too!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The ECM 12Z looks pretty scrumptious with a high likelihood of the "sunny" high sticking around for the duration of the run, a relatively cold start and then some pretty high maxima (mid teens quite likely in some areas) towards the end of the run, a bit like mid to late March 2003. However the GFS is placing the high further north which would mean a chilly easterly flow and probably some more of that cloud heading in off the North Sea.

[Gavin P]

It's because there is more to how "good" a summer month is perceived to be than mean temperature.

Indeed. Its quite possible in summer to have a "warm" daily CET with maxima of 20c and minima of 15c, but thats no good to anyone if its poaring with rain and overcast all day.

[MP-R]

The charts for next week do look pretty nice. I'd be able to appreciate them if the weather so far this month had actually been interesting. March 2003 began on a wet and sometimes stormy note, became cold in the 2nd week then the second half was beautiful - and a welcome change after the first half. This month however has been one of the most boring I've known for a long time - on a par with September 2009, October 2007, November 2004 etc. As such, I'll be looking for the quickest exit out of high pressure as possible in the models. I will welcome it with open arms come the second half of May.

[conor123]

The charts for next week do look pretty nice. I'd be able to appreciate them if the weather so far this month had actually been interesting. March 2003 began on a wet and sometimes stormy note, became cold in the 2nd week then the second half was beautiful - and a welcome change after the first half. This month however has been one of the most boring I've known for a long time - on a par with September 2009, October 2007, November 2004 etc. As such, I'll be looking for the quickest exit out of high pressure as possible in the models. I will welcome it with open arms come the second half of May.

This month is certainly an improvement on July 2010 and January & February this year, for a start its had a lot more sunshine than January and February combined here.

The exceptionally dry spell goes on though, if the ECM comes off then this month will end being in the top 10 driest Marchs on record here, though the truth is theres been no major rainfall events since early October here.

Edited March 17, 2011 by conor123

[MP-R]

This month is certainly an improvement on July 2010 and January & February this year, for a start its had a lot more sunshine than January and February combined here.

The exceptionally dry spell goes on though, if the ECM comes off then this month will end being in the top 10 driest Marchs on record here, though the truth is theres been no major rainfall events since early October here.

That's fair enough. Though July 2010 was interesting in Bristol with hot sunshine, thunderstorms, some grey and rainy days, and some just pleasant days. Equally, I'm in the southeast at the moment which has been nothing short of boring since I've been here in September. Admittedly, the North Sea cloud has put a bias on my opinion of a flow from the east, however slack.

At least when the Atlantic fires up properly and the jet is far enough south allowing for some Pm incursions, most areas in the country join in the fun.

[Thundery wintry showers]

At Cleadon in Tyne and Wear this could end up being the second consecutive March without a flake of sleet or snow falling, looking at the way things are shaping up. This would be a noteworthy statistic, as the only other sleet/snow-free Marches there in a record going back to 1993 were those of 1997 and 2003- though Tutiempo.net suggests that nearby Newcastle Weather Centre managed it in 1991 and 1992 as well. It would also be "two in a row" for Norwich.

Following on from the exceptionally snow free February we could see a few "most snowless February/March combination" records tumbling.

However, for many of us in eastern areas (where the month has so far been relatively cloudy) some rather more notable weather for the coming days with some warm sunshine on offer.

[conor123]

Friday 7th January was the last time there was any snowfall in the Midlands, i remember in 2008 the period from around now to Mid April saw more 'wintry' events for many than the preceding winter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2008/avn/Rtavn00220080322.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2008/avn/Rtavn00220080406.png

Edited March 18, 2011 by conor123

[Summer of 95]

At Cleadon in Tyne and Wear this could end up being the second consecutive March without a flake of sleet or snow falling, looking at the way things are shaping up. This would be a noteworthy statistic, as the only other sleet/snow-free Marches there in a record going back to 1993 were those of 1997 and 2003- though Tutiempo.net suggests that nearby Newcastle Weather Centre managed it in 1991 and 1992 as well. It would also be "two in a row" for Norwich.

Following on from the exceptionally snow free February we could see a few "most snowless February/March combination" records tumbling.

However, for many of us in eastern areas (where the month has so far been relatively cloudy) some rather more notable weather for the coming days with some warm sunshine on offer.

I've only had one day of snow falling in 2011- Jan 7th, though it did give a 2cm cover at 9am. Given that that was a Midlands/NW event, I wonder if some places in the south and southeast have had a totally snowfree 2011?

2000, 1997 and 1992 were all snowless Feb/March combinations.

[AderynCoch]

This month is certainly an improvement on July 2010 and January & February this year, for a start its had a lot more sunshine than January and February combined here.

Yes, despite some dull days I've lost count of how many sunny days there have been here so far this month. Our areas should easily see last July's sunshine total beaten this month (even last March managed it round here).

[Alex]

Any updates on the late spring / summer outlook? We still expecting a dry cool summer?

Also how's la Nina doing is it calming down yet?

[Ben_Cambs]

Any updates on the late spring / summer outlook? We still expecting a dry cool summer?

Also how's la Nina doing is it calming down yet?

Reading today's update from the NOAA, La Nina has weakened and will continue to do so, NOAA are expecting a neutral ENSO state by June. What affect this though on the upstream pattern (if any) remains to be seen.

[summer blizzard]

Any updates on the late spring / summer outlook? We still expecting a dry cool summer?

Also how's la Nina doing is it calming down yet?

I am still expecting a cool and wet summer overall (July probably the worst month) although i do expect a decent May.

[Alex]

Isn't a neutral state an ingredient needed for a good summer?

[CroatianWeather]

Isn't a neutral state an ingredient needed for a good summer?

No...depends... is El nino transiting to La nina or opposite...if El nino is going to La nina than it can be pretty good summer for UK with ridge over Atlantic with lots of blocking around you up there....but now when from La nina we are going to neutral conditions(and this is 2nd year of la nina) we can expect blocking far west of UK and you should expect STORMY AND UNSETTLED SUMMER THIS YEAR...

MY NEWEST OPINION Is THAT YOU COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRETTY WARM AND DRY MAY , BUT LATER , ESPECIALLY IN JUNE AND AUGUST IT WILL BE MORE DISTURBED WEATHER......TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE('61-'90) .

Edited March 22, 2011 by CroatianWeather

[Paceyboy]

Surely July cant be any worse, theres got to be a sunnier one in prospect soon

Yes last July was warm, however it was awfully cloudy and was followed by a terribly wet August.

If it was drier and average temperature-wise, it would probably be better than least year, purely on sunshine amounts and more dry days in the traditional part of the summer.

I would have thought that with neutral ENSO conditions, there would be less of a bias towards a 'particular summer weather type' prevailing and more likely a bit of everything.

A changeable Summer, each month having a bit of everything.

However i think it may be similar to last summer with the BEST weather MORE LIKELY in early summer. Reason being we have been in a dry period from mid autumn 2010 till now and that may come to an end by the end of June for example.

Edited March 22, 2011 by Paceyboy

[conor123]

The period from Mid November to now has been exceptionally dry here, theres been no proper rain for months, surely this cant be a good sign for the Summer?

Weve only had a few mm of rain here this month, hopefully were pay the price with a train of Spanish Plumes this summer instead of the usual drab.

[Alex]

Summer 76 went from la Nina to neutral and that was amazing so where does wet come from? 2007 was bad because it went towards la Nina.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Also paceyboy, July was very good last year I'n Essex just bad up north and west.

Edited March 22, 2011 by Alex

[reef]

I dont think whether we have an El Nino / La Nina makes a great deal of difference. Both have had good and bad summers. Both Summers 1956 and 1976 came on the back of a weakening strong La Nina like now and they were polar opposites.

Im sure theres some effect, but I imagine other factors are much more important.

[Snowyowl9]

Warmest march day since 2005 at 13.6c

Are we gonna pay for this warm spell,when april comes when it gets cold.

Edited March 22, 2011 by Snowyowl9

[Alex]

I reckon somewhere hit 18c today, maybe 20c tomorrow??

[summer blizzard]

Isn't a neutral state an ingredient needed for a good summer?

Copied my post from a few weeks ago as it is highly relevant. Essentially you want a weak El Nino (unlikely) in combination with a near neutral QBO (good chance this summer).

qbo

Augu 1975: +9.1

July 1976: -2.1

July 1983: -3.4

July 1989: -13.9

Augu 1990: +12.6

July 1994: -28.7

July 1995: +11.7

Augu 1995: +9.5

Augu 1997: +11.7

Augu 2003: -24.6

July 2006: +10.8

Range of -28.7 to +12.6 overall.

Range of -28.7 to +11.7 for July.

Range of -24.6 to +12.6 for August.

mei

Augu 1975: -1.7

July 1976: +0.6

July 1983: +1.7

July 1989: -0.5

Augu 1990: +0.1

July 1994: +0.8

July 1995: +0.3

Augu 1995: +0.0

Augu 1997: +2.9

Augu 2003: +0.0

July 2006: +0.6

Range of -1.7 to +2.9 overall.

Range of -0.5 to +1.7 for July.

Range of -1.7 to +2.9 for August.

http://hadobs.metoff...cetml1659on.dat

I also decided to take a look at the 18.0+ months since 1950 and try to pick out a trend in the QBO and MEI values. If you take out the anomolous months of July 1994 and August 2003 then there is a signal for a weak QBO event to bring the best prospects of heat. Equally, if you take out the La Ninas of August 1975 and July 1989 then there is a strong signal for an El Nino to deliver the goods, and if you expand that to take out the strong El Ninos of July 1983 and August 1997, then a strong signal emerges for a weak El Nino to deliver warmth.

In regards to the highest temperature today, there was a confirmed report of 17.2C at RAF Leeming at 15:00, somewhere may have beaten the reading before then though.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Trawscoed 18.2C at 4Pm, down to 7.7C at 8PM

[Costa Del Fal]

A couple of stations seem to managed a 20c in the shade ive read today. Impressive for March. Even here we managed 18/19c.