Australian Weather

Styx · November 13, 2013

A storm system bringing rain the past two days across eastern Australia has helped fire fighters to contain the wildfires for Queensland and New South Wales. Since Saturday night, Sydney received a total of 3.56 mm (0.14 of an inch) of rain. Even though this amount is still well below average for the first eleven days of November, this new rain is more than twice the amount that fell in the entire month of October.

The rain made a very small dent in the drought across eastern Australia. In the short term, the rain has helped contain some of the fires that were still burning in the area. Many fires spreading across the area were pronounced contained early on Sunday. This containment allowed Dreamworld, located north of Gold Coast and one of Australia's biggest theme parks, to re-open. The park was closed on Saturday when a fire flared up nearby and smoke began drifting in. The evacuation of guests and zoo animals was a precaution according to a spokeswoman for Dreamworld. However, the amusement park opened back up again on Sunday.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rain-fire-australia-sydney-dre/19830072

Most of the bushfires appear to be extinguished...and there's more rain to come.

Sydney has had 79mm since Sunday, as of 9am this morning. The November average is 84mm. The previous 4 months just 33,15,36 and 42 compared to norms of near 80.

Katoomba in the Blue Mountains ( 50miles sou-west of Sydney ) where 200 homes were lost last month, 106mm since Sunday. The previous 4 months was 20,17,42,9. Norms 70-80.

A really cool start to November in Australia, colder than October and September even, except in the west.

Styx · November 17, 2013

Huge hail storm at Maroochydore just north of Brisbane yesterday, one of many along Australia's east coast on the weekend stretching from Sydney to south-east Queensland

Edited November 18, 2013 by Styx

NorthNSW · November 20, 2013

Quite a sustained outbreak of storms along the Mid North & North Coasts of New South Wales and Southeast Queensland. Storms, some severe, formed 10 days in a row (Nov 9th to Nov 18th) as a surface trough stalled in the region, and then an upper trough stalled over the region from the 15th onwards (a low developed off the Sydney/Hunter coast on the 16th/17th/18th but had limited effect this far north). We had storm activity form in the local area (within approx 30kms) on 8 out of 10 days. We had 12 thunderstorms move over here during this period too, varying from weak storm with a little lightning to a severe hailstorm. It brought much-needed rain to most places, following a dry to very dry July-October period.
The most severe storms occurred on the 16th, when the upper trough was strongest, and large hail (2cm+) fell in a number of places, including giant (5cm+) hail. A tornadic waterspout formed in the waters offshore of Brisbane under a severe storm on the morning of the 16th too. The biggest hail so far seems to be about 8-9cm in diameter. The biggest of this hail fell on the Sunshine Coast, about an hour or so north of Brisbane. On the NSW Mid North & North Coast, the biggest appears to have fallen about an hour north of here in the Coffs Harbour region, with up to 6-7cm hail (I recall hearing a report of 8cm hail at Gleniffer, but haven't seen photos).
We had hailstones as large as 4.5cm here on the 16th, but mainly around the 3cm mark, on that day. The storm developed and hit here in the space of 30 minutes. It caught the Bureau unaware, and we were not included under the warning (the southern end of the warning area was about 20kms to our north), until almost 10 minutes after the storm had started (but the biggest of the hail had already fallen). We also had a hailstorm the day before, but only 1-1.5cm hail.

Hailstorm here at the house on Nov 16th, showing the largest stone of 4.5cm (45mm):

Comparison shot from part of backyard, showing the large stones falling first, then smaller but more numerous stones falling next:

Side garden:

Hailstorm at Sawtell, near Coffs Harbour (Mid North Coast NSW) (Nov 11th)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76HhOJne6Ow

Supercell storm structure inland from the Gold Coast south of Brisbane (Southeast QLD) (Nov 15th):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1eP5WVM5bQ
Same storm as video above. This timelapse will expire (be unviewable) in about 3 days though: http://webcams.bsch.au.com/timelapse.html?date=11152013&s1h=2&s1m=50&s1p=pm&s2h=6&s2m=50&s2p=pm&cam=mundoolun_s

Hailstorm - Hervey Bay region (Southeast QLD) (Nov 15th):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lUmtzZERnI

I've separated this post into 3 different posts (next two posts will follow shortly), as only 4 videos can be embedded in each post.

Styx · November 20, 2013

You beat me to it by 23 minutes if you have a favourite youtube clip on the Sydney tornado on Monday that could be well worth posting too...

NorthNSW · November 20, 2013

Second part...

Hail on the Sunshine Coast (Southeast QLD) (Nov 16th):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDBKQGNMDx0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqyujEJ80Z4

Large hail in a semi-rural locality south of Brisbane (Southeast QLD) (Nov 16th):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxauWVMvM88

Wild storm at the popular tourist town of Byron Bay (North Coast NSW) (Nov 16th):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM6GKOZj1hE

(I'll post that Sydney tornado news item in the next part Styx )

NorthNSW · November 20, 2013

Final part:

Hail in towns neighbouring Coffs Harbour (Mid North Coast NSW) (Nov 16th), including poor old Sawtell again which had a similar hailstorm only 5 days previous:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy5SwmFZBV8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR14i4QOzOI http://www.coffscoastadvocate.com.au/photos/hail-saturdays-storm/24392/#/17

Dorrigo hailstorm (Mid North Coast NSW) (Nov 18th): http://www.coffscoastadvocate.com.au/pho tos/dorrigo-hail-storm-18-november/24412/#/9

Gold Coast (Southeast QLD) (Nov 18th):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22Y13KGkdt4

It's outside of SthEast Qld and Northern NSW, but an honourable mention to the Sydney (Hornsby) Tornado on the 18th, ignore any mention of the irritating term 'mini-tornado' in the video, it's a confirmed tornado by the Bureau.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDQ3WvY27J0

Until this recent outbreak, it had been a fairly quiet storm season. Though October 29th an exception, perhaps foreshadowing the storms to come in November.Port Macquarie (Oct 29th) (Mid North Coast NSW):http://www.portnews.com.au/story/1872370/photos-all-hail-the-weather-gods/#slide=2 (99 photos)(We had 1cm hail here that day)

Sorry about my absence, I'll try and keep you updated again when notable weather occurs here or about the region.

There could be some severe storms around on November 23rd, fairly widespread areas of CAPE above 2000 predicted. Though it's not set in stone quite yet.

Edited November 20, 2013 by NorthNSW

NorthNSW · November 20, 2013

There could be some severe storms around on November 23rd, fairly widespread areas of CAPE above 2000 predicted. Though it's not set in stone quite yet.

The area of highest instability could change in the next couple of days, but it's hard not to get excited when you see values like these!! (Black dot marks my location between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie)

Btw, I forgot to add to the previous post that we had 137.8mm from the recent storm outbreak. This is more than we received in the previous four months (109.2mm - Jul 31.6mm / Aug 0mm / Sep 24.6mm / Oct 53mm). Overall, it will go down as an above average year for rain, even if the rainfall was skewed very heavily towards the first 6 months of the year (of the 1665mm that has fallen so far this year, 1418mm of that fell in the first 6 months).

NorthNSW · November 23, 2013

We are currently being warned for the possibility of tornadoes here on the latest severe storm warning:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for TORNADOES, DESTRUCTIVE WIND, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Mid North Coast, Metropolitan, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Northern Rivers, Hunter, Illawarra, Central Tablelands and North West Slopes and Plains Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:37 pm Saturday, 23 November 2013.

THIS INCLUDES A TORNADO WARNING.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce tornadoes, destructive winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding over the next several hours in the Mid North Coast, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Northern Rivers, Hunter and North West Slopes and Plains districts. Locations which may be affected include Tenterfield, Inverell, Armidale, Glen Innes, Tamworth and Moree.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds over the next several hours in the Metropolitan and parts of the Hunter, Illawarra and Central Tablelands districts. Locations which may be affected include Sydney, Penrith, Parramatta and Campbelltown.

45mm of rainfall was recorded Narrabri airpoirt in the hour from 1:30pm to 2:30pm.
A tornado was reported near Ben Lomond (north of Guyra) at about 4:20pm.

I think the Bureau have gone over-the-top by including coastal areas under the tornado warning though.

Edited November 23, 2013 by NorthNSW

NorthNSW · November 23, 2013

One house has been destroyed this afternoon by the tornado that was near Ben Lomond here in northern New South Wales, which is pretty unlucky for the owner as that area is sparsely populated, just the odd farm/house here and there.

Link to story:

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/tornado-spotted-in-new-south-wales-20131123-2y2qz.html

Pictures from the Sydney Morning Herald news article:

Edited November 23, 2013 by NorthNSW

Dan the Man · November 24, 2013

For anyone watching the cricket at the moment, here's the weather radar. Look at that cell just balloon dew west of Brisbane!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml

Styx · December 1, 2013

On the back of the phenomenal heat of September and October there is no surprise that Australia has just recorded its hottest spring on record.

November however cooled down significantly returning an anomoly of 'just' +0.5C - to be the 21st warmest November since the nation-wide temperature record set began 1910.

These are my graphs of choice from the BOM website. There are actually dozens of others to choose from or create...just takes a while to navigate your way around.

..............................

.and this is a recap of the last 4 seasons, working my way backwards. ( I may be 0.1 off here or there, but no more )

Spring 2013....Hottest on record. Anomoly +1.6C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall figures yet to be released.

Winter 2013.....3rd Warmest on record. Anomoly +1.3C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall -5%

Autumn 2013...7th Warmest on record. Anomoly +1.0C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall +2%

Summer 2012/13.....Hottest on record. Anomoly +1.1C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall -16%

Edited December 1, 2013 by Styx

Styx · December 3, 2013

Auto-cue fails in Melbourne newsroom and weather presenter has to rely upon written notes to get by before giving up in a fit of bother at 0:50. She seems nice enough and is certainly smoking hot but perhaps a trained meteorologist would have been able to soldier on..perhaps even without the notes! News anchor is one cool fellow who attempts to deflect away her awkwardness.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVpArLUposc

Styx · December 4, 2013

Snow in the forecast for south-east Australia today. Strongest summer cold change for Tasmania for about 3 years, and for Victoria about 7 years.

Tasmania Forecast Forecast for the rest of Thursday:
Showers and possible hail extending statewide during the morning, easing and contracting to the west, far south and Bass Strait islands in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms possible about the north and west. Snowfalls to around 900 metres. Cool to cold with moderate to fresh southerly winds extending from the west.
Hobart area
Cloudy. Showers with possible hail developing in the morning, clearing during the afternoon and evening. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 30 to 45 km/h in the morning then southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.
Max 14 Showers easing. Chance of any rain: 100% Rainfall amount: 2 to 6 mm

Victoria Forecast Forecast for the rest of Thursday
Scattered showers, mainly in southern and mountain areas. Local hail and thunder. Snow above 1100 metres. A cool to cold and mostly cloudy day with fresh to strong and gusty south to southwesterly winds.

Fire Danger - High to Very High in the north. Low to Moderate in the south.

Melbourne area
Partly cloudy. Showers increasing this morning before easing tonight,. Possible hail and thunder. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h tending southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.
Max 16 Few showers. Chance of any rain: 90% Rainfall amount: 3 to 10 mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/index.php?ref=hdr

Thursday 7am AEST: 10.8C in Melbourne and Hobart.

Hobart's Decemeber average maximum is 20, Melbourne 23.

Edited December 4, 2013 by Styx

Scorcher · December 4, 2013

Yes Bumble has been tweeting about how cold it is in Adelaide ahead of the 2nd test. Looks like highs will be in the teens for the first couple of days.

Cleeve Hill · December 4, 2013

Anyone got any ideas what we can expect in Melborne for the 4th Ashes test starting boxing day (and I dont mean 136 all out). Some nice hot sunshine for the Barmy Army hopefully.

Scorcher · December 4, 2013

Anyone got any ideas what we can expect in Melborne for the 4th Ashes test starting boxing day (and I dont mean 136 all out). Some nice hot sunshine for the Barmy Army hopefully.

Too early to say but it can vary a lot in Melbourne even in December- I seem to remember the Boxing Day test in 2006 was pretty chilly at the start, around 17 or 18C if I remember rightly. Then again it could be 30C+. Depends on the wind direction I think.

Styx · December 5, 2013

Anyone got any ideas what we can expect in Melborne for the 4th Ashes test starting boxing day (and I dont mean 136 all out). Some nice hot sunshine for the Barmy Army hopefully.

You want a forecast for 21 days ahead? Sure thing!

By the 20th the continent is cooking under relatively clear skies and the monsoon trough over the tropics appears to be in a phase of inactivity. This is good news for a greater chance of settled weather in the south...as there is lower likelyhood of heat troughs over the continent drawing in tropical moisture and propelling it southward. This is how southern Australia ( except Tasmania ) gets most of their summer rainfall...so less chance of the weather being interrupted by long periods of rain and/or storms at this point.

On the 20th it's not as hot in the south east as winds are NE'ly and not travelling directly from inland where most of the heat is stored. The heat will push into the south east on the 22nd-23rd, but there will be a cooler wind change around 24th-25th airstream briefly south east...maybe drizzle on the 25th.

The high to the south of Western Australia should be to the east of Victoria from the 26th signalling good weather right thru to the 29th. By the end of this period it should be very hot as northerly-north westerly winds draw in air from the desert as the Western Australia trough pushes eastward inland at last, the trough having a bit of momentum as it is being fed by a tropical stream, sure to develop over waters to the NW around this point of time. The last day of the cricket therefore has a greater chance of being interrupted than the first 3 days of play...but I give it a 40% likelyhood.

Melbourne 26th...Cloud clearing 26C

27th....Fine 30C

28th....Fine Mid 30C

29th...Fine but storm chance 40%...Near 40C

*Forecast subject to change closer to the date

Edited December 5, 2013 by Styx

NorthNSW · December 5, 2013

New South Wales, a state of constrasts today.

Winds up to 106km/h this afternoon in some suburbs of Sydney, snow in the Snowy Mountains, and snow flurries on the very highest parts of the central ranges (with small hail showers or sleety showers elsewhere on the central ranges and non-alpine parts of the southern ranges):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1wJybqWRzU

Meanwhile here on the North Coast there were widespread max temps of 30-35ÂºC today. 31.8ÂºC here at the house today, with a very similar 31.6ÂºC at Port Macquarie, a hot 34.2ÂºC at Coffs Harbour, and even hotter at Evans Head which topped the state with 35.2ÂºC, in contrast to Thredbo Top Station's max today of 1.2ÂºC (spending most of the daylight hours below zero).

Dewpoints / relative humidity fell sharply after the passage of the trough, the Port Macquarie obs give the best example of the fairly abrupt change from humid to dry:

Time Temp DP %RH Wind

12:30pm 27.8 21.3 67 N 13 22

01:00pm 27.5 21.1 68 NNE 11 17

01:30pm 28.2 21.0 65 N 15 20

02:00pm 29.1 20.0 58 NW 13 20

02:27pm 30.4 9.8 28 WNW 28 44

02:29pm 30.7 10.1 28 WNW 30 52

02:30pm 30.6 10.0 28 WNW 30 52

03:00pm 30.9 6.0 21 W 30 44

The cold/cool air is yet to reach here but should move through by early morning. A minimum of 14ÂºC tonight and then a max of 24ÂºC tomorrow with low humidity, quite unsummer-like. That type of temp and humidity combo, would be something more typical of late September.

Edited December 5, 2013 by NorthNSW

Cleeve Hill · December 5, 2013

You want a forecast for 21 days ahead? Sure thing!

By the 20th the continent is cooking under relatively clear skies and the monsoon trough over the tropics appears to be in a phase of inactivity. This is good news for a greater chance of settled weather in the south...as there is lower likelyhood of heat troughs over the continent drawing in tropical moisture and propelling it southward. This is how southern Australia ( except Tasmania ) gets most of their summer rainfall...so less chance of the weather being interrupted by long periods of rain and/or storms at this point.

On the 20th it's not as hot in the south east as winds are NE'ly and not travelling directly from inland where most of the heat is stored. The heat will push into the south east on the 22nd-23rd, but there will be a cooler wind change around 24th-25th airstream briefly south east...maybe drizzle on the 25th.

The high to the south of Western Australia should be to the east of Victoria from the 26th signalling good weather right thru to the 29th. By the end of this period it should be very hot as northerly-north westerly winds draw in air from the desert as the Western Australia trough pushes eastward inland at last, the trough having a bit of momentum as it is being fed by a tropical stream, sure to develop over waters to the NW around this point of time. The last day of the cricket therefore has a greater chance of being interrupted than the first 3 days of play...but I give it a 40% likelyhood.

Melbourne 26th...Cloud clearing 26C

27th....Fine 30C

28th....Fine Mid 30C

29th...Fine but storm chance 40%...Near 40C

*Forecast subject to change closer to the date

Thanks for this. No I was not expecting a forecast, but thanks anyway. It was more of a question of what the "norm" is for Melborne over Christmas / new year. Shorts or jeans for the MCG on Boxing Day ?

Styx · December 5, 2013

I was just been cheeky! I am on holiday now till the new year so plenty of time on my hands for a very long range forecast. Chances are I am unlikely to be anywhere close.

Melbourne is capable of producing the biggest swings in temperature during summertime from one day to the next than any other Australian capital. Hobart probably comes close! Anywhere between high teens as a daily max and near 40. Thunderhail showers or sunshine.

NorthNSW · December 8, 2013

Summery weather looks like arriving from tomorrow onwards around here for the next week, with max temps largely expected to stay between 26-29ÂºC and minimums between 18-20ÂºC (and humid too).

I was down in Port Macquarie today (60kms south, as the crow flies). Nice day, 25.9ÂºC max with moderate humidity and sunny, aside from a bit of thin high cloud.

The Lighthouse Beach area, on the far southern end of the city. Decent waves about, probably pumped across the Tasman from the rather deep low that was west of New Zealand about 36-48 hours ago. The beach is looking pretty sad at Lighthouse, aside from it being high tide and strong surf, the past 5 years or so have been pretty ruthless on the more exposed beaches with fairly consistent East Coast Low activity. They'll eventually recover though, with an inevitable switch to drier weather and a quieter period for lows (like the 2002-2007 period was).

UV Index reaching 14 tomorrow, probably get a few days of 15 near Christmas.

Edited December 8, 2013 by NorthNSW

Summer Sun · December 9, 2013

Its a hot night in Sydney the current temperature at 02:43am is 27c

Styx · December 9, 2013

Heatwave on the way for the Perth Ashes test beginning Friday.

The first summer heatwave to affect an Australian capital this summer season.

The heat is likely to push east then south east in just over a weeks time...a hot lead up to Christmas for the major population centres?

Heatwave classification

5 days in a row over 5C above average daily maximum or

3 days exceeding 35C ( +30C in Tasmania )

Perth December average temperature range: 16-30C

Friday 13 December

Min 21 Max 38 Sunny.

Saturday 14 December

Min 23 Max 39 Sunny.

Sunday 15 December

Min 24 Max 37 Mostly sunny.

Monday 16 December

Min 20 Max 40 Very hot and mostly sunny.

Edited December 9, 2013 by Styx

be cause · December 9, 2013

Heatwave on the way for the Perth Ashes test beginning Friday.

The first summer heatwave to affect an Australian capital this summer season.

The heat is likely to push east then south east in just over a weeks time...a hot lead up to Christmas for the major population centres?

Heatwave classification

5 days in a row over 5C above average daily maximum or

3 days exceeding 35C ( +30C in Tasmania )

Perth December average temperature range: 16-30C

Friday 13 December
Min 21 Max 38 Sunny.

Saturday 14 December
Min 23 Max 39 Sunny.

Sunday 15 December

Min 24 Max 37 Mostly sunny.

Monday 16 December

Min 20 Max 40 Very hot and mostly sunny.

after tenderizing .. roast in a hot oven .. may end up with nothing but ashes .. result !

Edited December 9, 2013 by be cause

NorthNSW · December 13, 2013

The possibility of some severe thunderstorms around the region tomorrow. Relatively weak wind shear may possibly hinder severe potential to an extent, and also mean that areas nearer to the ranges and the adjacent parts of the coastal plain should do better, with activity likely to be a bit 'hit and miss' here right on the coastal fringe.

(I'm halfway between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie)

On Wednesday afternoon, there were storms around the Coffs Harbour / Grafton area to my north that produced 50c piece and golf ball sized hail at Grafton, $2 coin sized hail at Bellingen, and 2-3cm hail at Woolgoolga.

Edited December 13, 2013 by NorthNSW

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