Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have raised the intensity to 120kts, making Yasi a cat 4 on the SS scale. Further strengthening appears likely unfortunately, JTWC forecast a landfall wind speed of 130kts, which will likely cause significant structural damage. There still a possibility of Yasi attaining cat 5 status if the current burst of intensification continues up until landfall, which is still prgged for the Cairns/Innisfail area.

[gpspete]

live typhoon tracking website as it happens for cyclone Yasi http://cimss.ssec.wi...00000000&loop=0

lots of options to click on

[Iceberg]

Thats quite surprising as current Dvorak estimates are between 5.5 and 6.0 which would be around 110kts, I cant find anywhere that has a 6.4 needed for 120kts.

Still a high end CAT 4 is possible maybe upto 135 kts or 155mph sustained winds definately in the structural damage territory.

Willis island current weather.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml

is slowly starting to ramp up the winds as the hurricane gets ready to pass amost over it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

The eye is still clearing out and it's still intensifying, radar from willis island shows a very well defined eye wall without any openings so pressure has/is probably dropping at quite a rate.

Willis island(first point of call) is still 200 kms away but it recording sub 1000mb pressure and winds to 40-50mph in gusts.

It looks like its trying to develop a tri inflow if it does then a CAT 5 SS is still possible.

[AderynCoch]

Yasi looks very similar to Larry in 2006, which initially threatened Townsville but ended up slamming into Innisfail. This one is a bit further north, and Cairns looks to be in big trouble right now. As with early 2006, La Niña is encouraging tropical cyclone activitiy in the SW Pacific.

[Iceberg]

This is willis island, basically one met building on a pancake in the path of a very very strong cyclone.

The guys there have nothing but total respect from me, there is noway in world I would be on that island with Yasi bearing down on me.

[conor123]

This is willis island, basically one met building on a pancake in the path of a very very strong cyclone.

The guys there have nothing but total respect from me, there is noway in world I would be on that island with Yasi bearing down on me.

My gosh that building doesn't stand a chance with such savage winds and waves.

[Iceberg]

Willis Island pressure 992mb and winds gusting to over 100km/hr still very much only the outer bands.

Edited February 1, 2011 by Iceberg

[donna-m]

[Iceberg]

Cool picture with the curvature of the earth.

Looking at the radar Yasi is not moving as expected and looks to be on a track quite a bit south of cairns now, maybe Tully or even further south....

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cool picture with the curvature of the earth.

Looking at the radar Yasi is not moving as expected and looks to be on a track quite a bit south of cairns now, maybe Tully or even further south....

Could you give a link to the radar you're using?

[donna-m]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Cat 5 now

[Iceberg]

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.

The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5 and will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction during today.

Coastal residents within the warning, and particularly between Port Douglas and Townsville are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS sea level rise (i.e. storm tide) as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands

later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further

inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in

excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above

280 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone

approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.

Heres the radar link

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR412.loop.shtml#skip

Willis pressure 987mb max gusts 128 km/hr

[Iceberg]

Willis currently falling at approx 1mb every 5-10 mins now at 975mb.

Current sustained winds are over 100 km/hr

[Upgrade]

very worrying indeed for northern queensland. i fear there might be a huge amount of destruction and some loss of life, they simply aren't used to cat 5's smashing into them with full force.

[Kentish Kiwi]

very worrying indeed for northern queensland. i fear there might be a huge amount of destruction and some loss of life, they simply aren't used to cat 5's smashing into them with full force.

Certainly looks very nasty, although I am finding the following of it very exciting/awe-inspiring. Still, not good to see some of the worst flooding in living memory followed up by possibly the worst cyclone to make landfall in Queensland for several generations or more. Going to give huge amounts of ammunition to global warming campaigners (whether deserved or not), but to argue against that I suppose you've got to expect extreme weather when an almost 'record breakingly' strong La Nina occurs at the height of the summer/wet season in the southern hemisphere (and for extreme snow events such as that which is occurring in the US when it coincides with the height of the continental winter).

One query I have though is, is this cyclone actually going to be making a direct hit on those places that faced the worst of the flooding last month? Or was the core of those floods further south, i.e. more towards Brisbane? If the floods where indeed just as bad further north towards Cairns and Townsville then the flooding is surely going to be catastrophic around coastal areas...

[Upgrade]

i think this is supposed to be a little further north than the previous flooding event.

hopefully it will make landfall in a sparsely populated area, it is a huge country with miles of deserted coastline so they may be lucky and miss the worst i suppose.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Does anyone know whereabouts in Queensland Yasi is expected to hit. My sister in Brisbane said that there is quite a bit of concern about this cyclone.

Brizzy is going to get a bit windy and wet (according to current predictions) and there will be a bit of a storm surge and a lot of rain. If your sister wasn't directly affected by last month's horrendous event, she's probably unlikely to be flooded now (although the wind speeds and effects are more unpredicatable).

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.abc.net.a...Yasi%20coverage

ABC Yasi coverage.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/02/3127757.htm?section=justin

And it's goodbye to the Willis Island feed....

Edited February 2, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[AderynCoch]

The track seems to be edging southwards. Innisfail could get screwed again, and Yasi is now stronger than Larry.

This is willis island, basically one met building on a pancake in the path of a very very strong cyclone.

The guys there have nothing but total respect from me, there is noway in world I would be on that island with Yasi bearing down on me.

Are they actually sitting it out or did they evacuate? The latter is what the US air force did when Category 5 Super Typhoon Ioke bore down on Wake Island in 2006.

Glad I'm not there myself right now.

[knocker]

Gives an indication of the scale of Yasi.

[knocker]

The Brisbane Times coverage.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/cyclone-yasi

[knocker]

The Queensland radars for 0600z. It's estimated the storm could produce between 500mm-700mm of rain!!!