Model Watch For Tour 2

[Arron]

Changeover day! Hopefully not too far to travel

[Paul]

Looking pretty good beyond that too!

[Nick F]

12z ECM has severe storms episode written all over it for Tuesday and Wednesday next week atm, after that the trough moves across E'rn US later next week with a cool and dry NW'erly flow returning to the Plains, but that's a long way off and the first chase day of Tour 2 next Wednesday looking good for now.

[chionomaniac]

Still looks good this morning.

Tells myself 'Don't get excited it's a long way off'

[gpspete]

look at the temprature for Wednesday 11th may hot

cape

Edited May 4, 2011 by gpspete

[Arron]

Wednesday looking good on the 12z GFS run, just hope it holds together

[gpspete]

SPC discussion read the last bit lets hope it happens and continues on for a few days at least, also something possible for the last couple of days of tour 1

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 040759

SPC AC 040759

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID

ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING

QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY

THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM

THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY

BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD

AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON

THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED

TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL

BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL

JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS

WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW

QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN

IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL

HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND

ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL

OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE

POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH

UNCERTAINTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY

BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN

PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT

ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF

THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION.

SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY

10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT

NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011

Edited May 4, 2011 by gpspete

[chionomaniac]

Keeping feet on ground.

BY TUE/D6 INTO WED/D7...FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME

INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS AND BEGINS

MOVING EWD. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE NWD AND PHASE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL

WIND PROFILES. ALL THE WHILE...A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE

CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VEERING SHEAR

PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS EACH DAY. TUE AND WED APPEAR TO HAVE A

GREATER TORNADO THREAT THAN ON SUN/MON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND

BETTER HODOGRAPHS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY

ON TUE WHEN A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO

OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.

[Arron]

Be itching to go Tuesday morning! Hopefully won't have too far to travel

[gpspete]

watching the latest GFS as they come in looks like we will need a quick getaway on the 10th

bit concerned at some of the models for when i arrive in DFW about 18.15 on monday hope there are no diverts or cancellations Heathow to Houston to Dallas Fort Worth

[Gorky]

Bit of a shocker with the 18z model last night showing a nice death ridge from the 13th through to about TT360. Not a good time to look at the models for the first time in about a week

The 00z is much better thankfully and hopefully more realistic. I'm sure there's going to be a down period of 3-4 days right at the start of my visit from the 13th as next weeks system will probably push the good stuff back into the Gulf but hoping the 0z is correct with it just being temporary before a recgharge!

[gpspete]

wednesday 11th looking good also 10th changeover day

SPC disscusion

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN THE

MEDIUM RANGE AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND THEN BEGINS TO

EJECT ENE INTO THE PLAINS BY TUE AND WED. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO

THE GREAT BASIN...SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY

STRONG EML ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AT THE SAME

TIME...THERE WILL BE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE

PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DRYLINE TSTM INITIATION IS COMPARATIVELY MORE UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY

AFTN THAN ON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS FURTHER WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE

DIGGING IMPULSE INTO THE DESERT SW. MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENTS

APPEAR LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND...PARTICULARILY...ON WEDNESDAY /DAY 5

AND 6/ AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM BODILY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.

THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASINGLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND

BUOYANCY...YIELDING THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A INCREASING SPREAD

ON THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE

MIDWEST AND NERN STATES. THIS RENDERS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM

RANGE PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE SVR WEATHER AREAS.

..RACY.. 05/06/2011

hope for thursday also

[gpspete]

thursday 13th SPC must be able to do something with these will check ECWMF later probably somthing a bit differant to GFS as there above disscusion

in my haste i meant to put up the charts next 6 hours on but you get the idea only looks better

mind i suspect may be in the same area that got hit hard 26/27th April

Edited May 6, 2011 by gpspete

[gpspete]

the previous post i made firmed up as i thought it would it did not push so far east as i thought as the energy pulse is slowed down a day or so so hopefull friday will be a play day also.

SPC prediction looking good for wed/thur SEVERE http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Edited May 7, 2011 by gpspete

[Gorky]

Hoping the 12z comes off as it shows the low staying a bit further north, and not scouring out moisture allowing for multiple chase days in Texas and OK for the first week. Sucks I'm flying into Denver on my chase heh! Could be an 8 hour drive for me on the 14th if that comes off! Was already planning a trip to Yellowstone in case of a ridgy period.. Hoping I can put that on hold now!

[dogs32]

so its still looking great then....havent had much time to have a great look...but according to the all above its a great Tornado outlook

[chionomaniac]

so its still looking great then....havent had much time to have a great look...but according to the all above its a great Tornado outlook

My guess is that we may not be moving far from Texas in the first week. Tues looking like there is far less potential than there was two days ago. May have to think about packing soon.

[gpspete]

My guess is that we may not be moving far from Texas in the first week. Tues looking like there is far less potential than there was two days ago. May have to think about packing soon.

every run of the models seems to show something a bit different (there it is no it isn't back again) a big waiting game even if its only a couple of days to go lol

[chionomaniac]

every run of the models seems to show something a bit different (there it is no it isn't back again) a big waiting game even if its only a couple of days to go lol

Looking promising for Wednesday - let's hope that this doesn't chop and change.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 080830

SPC AC 080830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0330 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2011

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS

OF EJECTING ENE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/. 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS

PREFERRED IN MAINTAINING STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/JET AS IT MOVES INTO

KS/OK/W TX WITH TRIPLE POINT LIKELY EVOLVING OVER SW KS WEDNESDAY

AFTN. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND 50-60 KTS

OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO

ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM KS/NEB BORDER SWD INTO NRN TX. THESE

STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE TOWARD SE NEB...ERN PARTS OF KS/OK

AND NCNTRL TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DAY 4 APPEARS TO BE

SETTING UP FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE EVENT WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE

WEATHER POSSIBLE.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER WITH EVOLUTION OF

A POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. EXACT

EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CLEAR AND PRECLUDES MENTION OF

SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

..RACY.. 05/08/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

[chionomaniac]

All packed now, seat booked, taxi booked to the airport, can't wait.

[dogs32]

Looking promising for Wednesday - let's hope that this doesn't chop and change.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 080830

SPC AC 080830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0330 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2011

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SRN PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS

OF EJECTING ENE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/. 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS

PREFERRED IN MAINTAINING STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/JET AS IT MOVES INTO

KS/OK/W TX WITH TRIPLE POINT LIKELY EVOLVING OVER SW KS WEDNESDAY

AFTN. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND 50-60 KTS

OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO

ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM KS/NEB BORDER SWD INTO NRN TX. THESE

STORMS WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE TOWARD SE NEB...ERN PARTS OF KS/OK

AND NCNTRL TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DAY 4 APPEARS TO BE

SETTING UP FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE EVENT WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE

WEATHER POSSIBLE.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER WITH EVOLUTION OF

A POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. EXACT

EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CLEAR AND PRECLUDES MENTION OF

SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

..RACY.. 05/08/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

:lol: ;) :lol:

[nsrobins]

Starting to quite like Weds potential in SW OK/Childress TX area with the surface low nicely placed on 00Z GFS

[ANYWEATHER]

Best Of Luck for all on Tour 2 and Nathan as well!! I sincerely hope the gfs is wrong ,this weekend will be cool over the Uk and it looks as though it gonna be unusually cool and Quiet over with you Guys, hope the pattern changes quickly for all!! Best Wishes Ian.

[Gorky]

Aye.. a bit of a nightmare for me as whilst the NW guys are in position to follow the current storm east perhaps chasing into Arkansas, Mississippi and through to the East Coast, I land too late and too far west to chase any of that. Think the first week for me is going to be sightseeing with the chance of some upslope towards the end of the week. On the plus side, if I'm up in the Yellowstone area, there's a reasonable chance of non severe or borderline severe thunderstorms with a backdrop of stunning scenery for a few days with that trough sat off the NW coast providing reasonable upper support. The lack of surface moisture being mitigated by altitude and very cold upper air temps. The day after I land there's 2.5K cape forecast in Idaho :o Models have consistently shown this ridge only lasting for about 5-6 days so plenty of opportunities for me later in the chase at least.

Occasionally, the GFS has shown a completely different output with the northern plunge on the jet over Eastern US being no where near as pronounced and a return to activity by the 18th or so but I'm starting to doubt that now!

Edited May 11, 2011 by Gorky

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

A quiet period on the cards in the next few days across the Plains as a ridge of high pressure extends. ECM00Zand GFS18Z and 00Z multi-model guidance suites are beginning to suggest the possibility of a vortex developing to the W of TX and OK during the middle of this coming week which could increase WAA from the deep S and move E to affect many parts of TX and OK in the form of severe thunderstorms, greatly enhancing the risk of a few tornadoes. This pattern has only recently evolved in the last few runs on GFS and a single run on ECM, so caution advised. Areas of focus initially W TX/W OK and perhaps more widepsread and to the E of these regions for the end of next week extending into more E states too. Otherwise the weekend and the early part of next week looks generally quiet in nature.

Edited May 13, 2011 by Thermohaline Conveyor