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Chase 2011 - Day 9 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Today sees a split Slight Risk across the US With an area from Nebraska and Iowa under the gun and also Oklahoma and Texas along a dryline. I have positioned us in Hays (Kansas) overnight primarily to see how overnight models react and go for one or other and it is now apparant that Central to South Eastern Nebraska looks likely to yield better Supercells and also Tornado chances. The dryline further south looks likely to have pretty supercells but not as much chance of getting the job done as Temp and Dewpoint spreads are huge and initiation is also more uncertain. I really think the risk zone further north is a high end Slight and low end Moderate with the type of instability we will see with upto 4,000jkg of Cape and Dewpoints in the Mid 60's expected, am expecting Moderate to High instability for today, this will all congeal into quite a huuuuge MCS Which should affect Iowa tonight so will aim to position well east to let this hit the hotel tonight :drinks::diablo:

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1241 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS

VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN OK INTO SWRN TX...

...CNTRL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BE SHUNTED EAST INTO THE MS

VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE

NWRN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IT

APPEARS SEVERAL WEAK BUT POTENTIALLY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT

ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS REGION. ONE OF

THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR THE

BLACK HILLS REGION...SEWD INTO SERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN

TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SHARPEN A WARM

FRONT WHILE FORCING HIGHER PWAT BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS NWD ACROSS

THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGEST 60F+ SFC DEW

POINTS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF NEB PRIOR TO AFTERNOON INITIATION. IN

FACT IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE FORCED INTO

THIS REGION ALONG ERN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHERE

INITIATION IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THUS DISPLAY A VERY

UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000

J/KG. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING

OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NRN NEB THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT

WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHEN SUPERCELLS

SHOULD EMERGE AHEAD OF OR IN CONJUNCTION WITH TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE.

VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS UPDRAFTS SHOULD

PROVE EXCEPTIONALLY ROBUST GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID

LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS NOT

EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT VENTING WILL OCCUR

WHERE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SEEM MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A

THREAT OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD EMERGE BY MID EVENING AS LLJ

INCREASES INTO SERN NEB THUS A LARGER MCS IS POSSIBLE AS THIS

ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO IA WELL AFTER DARK.

...SRN PLAINS...

CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST ALONG THE DRYLINE

SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FROM SWRN OK INTO SWRN TX. LATEST NAM/GFS

GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY EASED AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG

THIS ZONE THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. EARLY EVENING SATELLITE

IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW

ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHICH SHOULD APPROACH THE DRYLINE BEFORE THEY

WEAKEN. THIS NEUTRAL-WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY ALLOW ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S TO NEAR

100F. ANY STORMS THAT EMERGE ACROSS THIS REGION COULD CERTAINLY

PRODUCE LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING BY 03Z.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Latest Ruc is painting a pretty picture with Supercells strung out in a line from NE Kansas through SE Nebraska and upto the South Dakota Border at 6pm :drinks:

post-24-0-50974100-1304866813_thumb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Fingers crossed for you guys today, tour 1 deserves this!

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

I have a rather off topic question, When people have payed for the flights. Do they have to also help towards petrol costs and hotel costs?

In a rough estimate what would a person have to keep aside for a future storm chase?

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

You don't need to pay for petrol/accommodation once you're out there (on one of our tours at least), so all you need cash for is food/drink and any other extras you want to buy.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Cheers Paul, will say no more as i got my answer :)

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Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

Sadly cannot get it to play at all which is odd as I was having no problems a few days ago. Have there been any updates or something that might affect whether I can view it? Am using a Mac PowerBook G4 and Firefox 3.6.17. When I click on the play arrow nothing happens, not even the loading sign.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Sadly cannot get it to play at all which is odd as I was having no problems a few days ago. Have there been any updates or something that might affect whether I can view it? Am using a Mac PowerBook G4 and Firefox 3.6.17. When I click on the play arrow nothing happens, not even the loading sign.

Works here, though i did have problems previously like yourself but because of adblock which hates that advert at the start then again so do i... SUNCREAM FACTOR 20 ARRGGH haha ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff

Sadly cannot get it to play at all which is odd as I was having no problems a few days ago. Have there been any updates or something that might affect whether I can view it? Am using a Mac PowerBook G4 and Firefox 3.6.17. When I click on the play arrow nothing happens, not even the loading sign.

Its playing fine for me, Im using the latest Firefox (not sure which version).

Sound is all messed up though since they turned the music on.

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Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

Works here, though i did have problems previously like yourself but because of adblock which hates that advert at the start then again so do i... SUNCREAM FACTOR 20 ARRGGH haha ;)

Hmmm maybe I need to update my Adobe flash player? I don't see the advert, I think our proxy server blocks them. :whistling: Will try clearing my cache, thanks Paul.

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Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

No joy at the moment unless the stream isn't playing. I also tried on OH's Windows 7 netbook and that doesn't work either. Will try again later! Good luck with the chasing guys n gals. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Hello Tour 1 - hoping for some success in the next few days.

The WF is currently draped across C NE with a cap in place until around 21-22Z. Reasonable moisture and hot surface values should prompt convection N of the I80, though from your perspective you may have to go further north for tor potential.

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Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

we had trouble viewing the live streaming as well we found refreshing the page worked for us

Edited by ian cameron
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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Stormscape team have a Cu field on stream 10 miles W of Lincoln heading west.

Initiation underway.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Couldn't monitor this after 22Z but I see it was a total bust for NE. A few reports from SD on the SPC.

Not sure why convection didn't get organised but it happens.

Either further north for today or back south for possible DL Tues.

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I was suprised to see so much convection over N Texas today given the cap but it must have been very high based. I chased in the drought of 2006 and remember the high based storms well. Great for lightning

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Quite the shocker yesterday with the Warm front target mis-firing totally and Cap Bust ensuing :(

We also had to deal with issues with the Local radar sites being down for most of the day up until about 7pm :doh:

If I thought Nebraska hated me in 2010, well 2011 has started off in the same light, in view of the recent models am heading south today and chasing in Oklahoma tomorrow with some of the guys who are staying until wednesday to try and pluck some magic out of the air.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Quite the shocker yesterday with the Warm front target mis-firing totally and Cap Bust ensuing :(

We also had to deal with issues with the Local radar sites being down for most of the day up until about 7pm :doh:

If I thought Nebraska hated me in 2010, well 2011 has started off in the same light, in view of the recent models am heading south today and chasing in Oklahoma tomorrow with some of the guys who are staying until wednesday to try and pluck some magic out of the air.

So just like the uk it happens in the usa as well :bad: :bad:

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