East & Central Pacific Invest Thread 2011

[Somerset Squall]

This thread is for discussing invests as and when they form. Seperate threads, as normal, will be made when an invest becomes a tropical cyclone.

The East Pacific season began on the 15th May. There is already widespread convective activity firing off over the hot waters in the far east of the basin so we should be watching this area for a possible invest over the next day or so.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

90E

[Somerset Squall]

90E is not looking great tonight, the system has lost organisation from yesterday evening when the invest was declared. Then, the system seemed to be developing some concentrated convection near a developing LLC. This convection has weakened and become more scattered. 90E could well dissipate very soon.

[Somerset Squall]

90E dissipated.

Invest 91E has formed in the east of the basin, at 10N, 98W. Disorganised convection is steadily increasing and showing some signs of rotation. Conditions are favourable for development with low shear and very warm sea temps. NHC give a medium chance, 30%, of 91E becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection largely diminished from 91E this morning but has made a significant comeback this evening. In addition, a LLC has formed and is gradually becoming better defined. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system and NHC give the system a HIGH chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48hrs. SHIPS model also keen on making 91E a hurricane down the line. Things may finally be starting for the East Pacific!

[onlyME]

It isn't clear to me why models are keen of this disorganized and weak cloud mass.

[Somerset Squall]

The well defined LLC and favourable environment no doubt. Convection is lacking a little at present but the low certainly isn't weak. NHC have upped chances to 90% so they are pretty keen on 91E becoming a tropical depression soon.

[Cookie]

Up to 100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW

SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE

FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS

IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[Somerset Squall]

91E became Major Hurricane Adrian.

Invest 92E has formed in the far east of the basin, south of Guatemala. Disorganised convection is beginning to show signs of rotation. Conditions are favourable for further development with low shear persisting in the East Pacific, and sea temps high where 92E is located. Therefore, some slow development is likely.

[Somerset Squall]

92E has formed an LLC which is slowly becoming better defined. Convection is still disorganised but the strengthening LLC should cause the convection to begin to concentrate. NHC have raised the chances of TC formation in the next 48hrs to a medium 40%.

[Somerset Squall]

92E is beginning to organise it's convection about the LLC. The convection is a lot more concentrated and deeper than this time yesterday. NHC have raised TC formation chances to 50%, which I think is a fair assessment.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has further concentrated and is wrapping around 92E's LLC. NHC mention that a tropical depression "may be forming" and have raised TC formation chances to 90%. Looks like the 2nd TD of the season is just around the corner.

[Somerset Squall]

92E became Hurricane Beatriz.

Invest 93E has formed 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. A broad LLC is slowly contracting and convection is beginning to wrap towards the centre. 93E has improved considerably in organisation over the last 24hrs and I think we could see a tropical depression form from this one either tomorrow or Friday. NHC give 93E a 50% chance of this occuring in the next 48hrs. Shear is low and waters warm which supports the idea of continued development.

[Cookie]

93E

up to 70%

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF

ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cookie]

we have TD3

WHXX01 KMIA 071257

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1257 UTC THU JUL 7 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (EP032011) 20110707 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110707 1200 110708 0000 110708 1200 110709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.4N 101.5W 15.5N 103.1W 16.4N 104.6W 17.3N 106.1W

BAMD 14.4N 101.5W 15.4N 103.7W 16.1N 106.0W 16.8N 108.2W

BAMM 14.4N 101.5W 15.5N 103.4W 16.2N 105.5W 16.9N 107.5W

LBAR 14.4N 101.5W 15.3N 103.8W 16.3N 106.4W 17.2N 109.0W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110709 1200 110710 1200 110711 1200 110712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.3N 107.4W 20.3N 109.8W 21.8N 112.0W 22.0N 113.9W

BAMD 17.3N 110.3W 18.4N 114.5W 19.4N 118.6W 19.8N 123.0W

BAMM 17.6N 109.5W 19.0N 113.5W 20.1N 117.3W 20.5N 121.1W

LBAR 18.3N 111.4W 20.6N 115.

[onlyME]

We've got Invest 94E.

Satellite image:

Currently at 20%.

[Cookie]

94E

[Somerset Squall]

94E is a large system but is showing signs of organisation this afternoon, and NHC have upped TC formation chances to 40%. A circulation is clear to see, and although broad, it is beginning to pull convection towards itself. Shear is low, and waters warm, so I think the 40% risk of 94E becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs is a fair assessment.

Edited July 17, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

East Pacfic is on fire atm

97E

[Somerset Squall]

94E became Major Hurricane Dora.

Invest 97E has persisted about 130 miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Despite shear, 97E is organising quickly with banding features developing about an increasingly well defined LLC. NHC give 97E a 70% chance of TD formation in the next 48hrs, remarking that it could occur sooner.

[Somerset Squall]

97E became Major Hurricane Eugene.

Invest 98E has formed at 12N, 122W, the farthest west in the basin an invest has formed so far. Convection is persisting over an increasingly well defined LLC and the NHC remark a tropical depression could be forming. Shear is low and sea temps are around 28C, which will support further development. NHC give a high chance, 80% of 98E becoming a tropical depression within the next 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

93E

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND COLIMA THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

91C in the Central Pacific:

A small area of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a weak surface low is located about 820 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to be unfavorable for significant development of this system as it moves westward at about 12 mph. There is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

93E became TD 08E and 91C dissipated.

Almost a month with no named tropical cyclone. All quiet... until now?

96E

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Somerset Squall]

96E has become better organised today, and convection is beginning to wrap towards a tightening area of low pressure. NHC has upped TC formation chances to 70% in the next 48hrs as shear is set to remain low and waters warm along the westwards track.

[Somerset Squall]

96E became Major Hurricane Hilary.

Invest 97E has formed at around 11N, 114W, well out to sea. Convection is becoming increasingly well organised around a developing LLC. Shear is low and waters are warm enough to support continued development. NHC give 97E a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48hrs.

Invest 98E has formed a few hundred miles east-southeast of 97E, at a fairly low latitude of 9N. Convection is building and showing signs of strong rotation about a possibly rapidly developing LLC. Waters are warm, and shear is low. NHC give the invest a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48hrs, but based on recent development I think this will increase by the next tropical weather outlook.