June CET

[J10]

I'll put the figures up some time over the weekend hopefully tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

In the last few months we've had the coldest November since 1993, the coldest December since 1890, the warmest April since records began in 1659 and the coolest June since 1991.

Weird weather.

Add to that the driest March since 1961 and one of the 10 driest Aprils on record.

[Terminal Moraine]

Had it not been for the short hot spell at the end of June my prediction ( guess ) might have been spot on.

Tsk

[Weather-history]

The difference between April and June was just 2.0C which is very small between those two months.( The average is nearer to 6C) Could be the smallest difference between the two months on record.

Edited July 2, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Lettucing Gutted]

The difference between April and June was just 2.0C which is very small between those two months.( The average is nearer to 6C) Could be the smallest difference between the two months on record.

Indeed. That is in complete contrast to 1837 which probably had the biggest April to June increase on record when the coldest April on record 4.7 (which is equal to the 1961-1990 December CET average!) was followed by a very warm June 15.5C.

[AderynCoch]

The difference between April and June was just 2.0C which is very small between those two months.( The average is nearer to 6C) Could be the smallest difference between the two months on record.

With April coming in at 11.8C, it also marks the first time there has been an April warmer than the coldest June on record (1675 with 11.5C) and equal with three Junes in the last 100 years (1909, 1916 & 1972).

This at least shows us that it's theoretically possible for April to be warmer than June.

[J10]

June proved a very difficult month to measure, stewfox won 0.3c out, Terminal Moraine was 0.4c out with BARRY and Atlanticflamethrower both 0.5c out.

In the monthly comp Terminal Moraine leads from stewfox with BARRY in 3rd. (Terminal Moraine got a slight bonus for correctly guessing that CET would be below average, and got an additional bonus, and that is why he leads in the Summer Comp.

Overall Jack Wales stays in the lead, fozfoster stays 2nd with Don moving up to 3rd.

June 2011 CET.xls

June 2011 CET.pdf

Any queries or errors as ever please let me know.

[Methuselah]

Thanks for that, Jackone.

[Fozfoster]

Surprised to still be second after being 1.9 out. O well will not be able to get away with that again! Keep up the good work JACKONE.

[stewfox]

June proved a very difficult month to measure, stewfox won 0.3c out, Terminal Moraine was 0.4c out with BARRY and Atlanticflamethrower both 0.5c out.

In the monthly comp Terminal Moraine leads from stewfox with BARRY in 3rd. (Terminal Moraine got a slight bonus for correctly guessing that CET would be below average, and got an additional bonus, and that is why he leads in the Summer Comp.

Overall Jack Wales stays in the lead, fozfoster stays 2nd with Don moving up to 3rd.

June 2011 CET.xls

June 2011 CET.pdf

Any queries or errors as ever please let me know.

Whats the adittional bonus ? How are these things scored ? :unsure:

[J10]

Whats the adittional bonus ? How are these things scored ? :unsure:

Fair point, I can go into full scoring details if required, but I will answer this one point.

In terms of accuracy, everyone gets 1 pts for predicting whether or not CET is above or below average compared with the actual event. In this instance Terminal Moraine predicted that CET would be below average and gained 1 pt for doing so, when those who predicted CET would be average or above would not do so.

In the event of CET being above average everyone who said that would get the bonus. This bonus has applied every month since the comp started, but this is the first time it has effected placings in such a way.

So in this event even though, you won June CET comp (well done for doing so), you are now 0.5pts behind Terminal Moraine in the Seasonal comp, because of this additional point. It is an anomoly and hope this makes sense to you.

[Roger J Smith]

The difference between April and June was just 2.0C which is very small between those two months.( The average is nearer to 6C) Could be the smallest difference between the two months on record.

This is correct, I checked my data base using a "max" filter for anomaly change.

The 2011 difference of 2.0 C deg was 0.5 less than the previous mark of 2.5 in 1988 and that had narrowly edged out 2.6 in 1814.

On the other hand, the biggest jump from April to June was 10.8 deg in 1837 which was mentioned on the thread somewhere. The second biggest was 10.5 deg in 1676 if we can believe that June really averaged 18.0 then, Maunder and all.

Edited July 2, 2011 by Roger J Smith