June CET

[Jack Wales]

Hi all,

As time is getting on I thought would open a new thread for the June CET. The averages for June are as follows...

1961-90 14.2°C

1971-00 14.1°C

It's curious that the 1971-2000 value is lower than the 1961-1990 value. As for the last decade, 2003 was the warmest coming in at 16.1°C, with 2008 being the coldest at 13.9°C

As for the all time records, there are a few perhaps dubious recordings in the 1600's, interestingly the 1670's show the coldest month (1675 at 11.5°C) and the second warmest (1676 at 18.0°C). More recent records show 1846 as the all time warmest at 18.2°C, with 1909, 1916 and 1972 recording cool 11.8°C values.

Edited May 20, 2011 by Jack Wales

[summer blizzard]

The 1981-2010 average is also 14.6C.

May revise on the 29th however my prediction is 15.8C, 1.2C above average and the warmest June since 2006.

[feb1991blizzard]

I will be waiting untill the last possible moment before posting my prediction but as it stands at the moment i would be going several degrees higher than average.

[conor123]

Im going for 16.4c, just over two degrees above average, i do have the feeling it will be a warm month for most but much more unsettled than the last few Junes have been.

Edited May 20, 2011 by conor123

[TonyH]

Even the end of May is uncertain let alone June, I will probably go for above average as usual though

[Jack Wales]

I'm going for a changeable start and a warm, settled end to the month... 15.7°C

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very cool/cold to start (Whit holiday week) NW winds 10C max ish for first 5-6 days, but warming up, then prediction hot for Wimbledon, last 10 days

fairly average month at 14.5C

[The PIT]

Nothing out standing dry with temps coming around 14.6c held back by cool nights.

[Backtrack]

Can someone tell me how I would actually work out the CET based on a GFS run as an example? Up to now I have just been guessing lol.

My guess is 15.9C.

Edited May 20, 2011 by Funnel

[Jack Wales]

Can someone tell me how I would actually work out the CET based on a GFS run as an example? Up to now I have just been guessing lol.

My guess is 15.9C.

As model runs change so often, I find it's best to break the month down into 4 weeks and make best estimates for each week and then take the average. The first two weeks are easier as model runs can help with forecasting. The last two months are a little more tricky and require some interpretation of teleconnections, although there are some longer range models such as CFS. It's all good fun tho'!

Edited May 21, 2011 by Jack Wales

[geoffw]

16.7

[Ben_Cambs]

I'm going to go for a warmer than average month though nothing exceptional, 15.4C

[geoffw]

what was the CET for june 1976?

[Jack Wales]

what was the CET for june 1976?

Hi Geoff, June 1976 came in at 17.0C

[geoffw]

ill go for 16.7

[Fozfoster]

Can someone tell me how I would actually work out the CET based on a GFS run as an example? Up to now I have just been guessing lol.

My guess is 15.9C.

Or like me and guess

[Optimus Prime]

Looking very blocked to me so as a result warm and dry. 16.0

[Polar Gael]

17.2C for me please.

[BARRY]

B)

14.3c for me

[95 Degrees]

A mainly dry and very warm month, not as hot as 1976 though, but with few cyclonic spells.

16.1C

Edited May 22, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[NathanB]

I think it will be rather warm after the first week or so, so I will go for 16.5c please.

[EaasmanG]

My educated guess: 14.9°C

[snowlover2009]

16.7 for me please, it is going to be a very warm one, dry too and it all kicks off around mid week next week, with our first high pressure from the Azores, linking up with the high over Europe, just like last nights ecm and just recently, the 12z gfs. July will send alarm bells ringing, people won't expect June to be just the beginning! August to be the decline of summer from middle I would think.

[SP1986]

14.4C for me

[Snowstorm1]

15.7C