Chase 2011 - Day 23 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

First proper chase day for Tour 3 and a possible Moderate Risk coming for Strong Tornadoes, SPC Go 10% Hatched at the moment, going to get an early start and get us into Oklahoma for hopefully a repeat of the 21st May. And the 22nd May always throws up Tornadoes!

Paul S

[Gorky]

Gonna try and avoid the dead end mud roads leading to farmers fields, this May 22nd Dom't want a repeat of last year

[Arron]

We're on the road heading towards I35 to get north for todays risk. The group is buzzing after last nights light show

[nsrobins]

SPC go MODERATE and up tor risk to 15%. Although the greatest potential exists further east in IL, NE MO IMO there's masses of instability right down the eastern side of OK and into TX. Loaded gun here.

Reachable target would be far SE OK but terrain not brilliant. Huge CAPE pushes EHIs up to 11.0+!

Edited May 22, 2011 by nsrobins

[gpspete]

arrived home from tour 2 just had asleep for 4 hrs as no sleep on plane it was full and noisy a very bumpy ride seatbelt signs on for most of flight arrived 1/2hour early and set of 15min. late suspect rode a jet stream most the way see a couple of cells with decent hight now what am i missing !!!!! looks like things are starting to realy kick off for tour 3 good luck and get some decent pics

bye the way volcano trouble in Iceland AGAIN differant volcano Grímsvötn keep a check on latest met advisory http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1306068174.png

Edited May 22, 2011 by gpspete

[icbinb]

MD issued for Arkansas.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS/SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321...

VALID 221615Z - 221745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321

CONTINUES.

A FEW STRONGER CORES CONTINUE TO REGENERATE UPSHEAR ATOP OUTFLOW

FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AR. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN

PLACE AND A PERSISTENT FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD...THIS TREND MAY

PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS

ACTIVITY APPEARS MINIMAL...WITH SPORADIC HAIL CORES LIKELY AND HEAVY

RAIN.

SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS

THOUGH...AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THIS AREA FOR ANY UPSCALE GROWTH.

[Gorky]

SPC mesoanalysis is showing 9500 cape, still capped, in and around Midland, Tx and that was the 11am sounding. Certainly some major instability out there this morning! With such values, I'm less worried about any veered windflow as I'm sure the strong inflow into such cells creates their own little environment with heightened helicity.

[NL]

Tornado watch likely soon for the far north of the moderate risk with a gravity wave coming into the equation.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN IA...NRN MO...NWRN IL...SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221553Z - 221800Z CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY BY MIDDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE ACROSS ERN KS...NWRN MO AND INTO IA WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER VORT. MEANWHILE...A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY. MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SHOWED CLASSIC LOADED GUN WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH A BREAKABLE CAPPING INVERSION. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS MN/IA/WI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

[Arron]

Heading to Gainsville for lunch, should be there in an hour or so. Then will continue up the I35 into S.OK and take a check on data CAPE values insane already!

[icbinb]

Well, time for my first ever punt on a location. I would target Shawnee, Oklahoma.

[Dorsetbred]

Tornado watch likely soon for the far north of the moderate risk with a gravity wave coming into the equation.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN IA...NRN MO...NWRN IL...SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221553Z - 221800Z CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY BY MIDDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE ACROSS ERN KS...NWRN MO AND INTO IA WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER VORT. MEANWHILE...A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY. MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SHOWED CLASSIC LOADED GUN WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH A BREAKABLE CAPPING INVERSION. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS MN/IA/WI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

Now I know why I went on tour 1.

To miss all of this

[icbinb]

New MD issued

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221742Z - 221945Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG

THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE

HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. THE PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES

BY 20Z IS 80 PERCENT.

17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM AROUND 40 E SPS

SWWD TO 60 SE MAF. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU

DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. INCIPIENT TSTM FORMATION

APPEARS PROBABLE BY 19Z AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME LARGELY UNCAPPED

BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z DRT/FWD RAOBS WITH MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. THIS

EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL

BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY

LARGE HAIL.

MODEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE

TORNADO THREAT. ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE

INCREASING NEAR AND AFTER 00Z AS MASS RESPONSE OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF

A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL

FLOW SAMPLED IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD

LARGELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

[NL]

Now I know why I went on tour 1.

To miss all of this

This is why its taking me so long to go as I'm hoping to raise enough cash to do the whole tour from start to finish. I'd be devastated to return home from a pretty benign stormchase to read of impending tornado breakouts.!

Latest satellite image showing a well developed Cu field along the dry-line.

[Dorsetbred]

This is why its taking me so long to go as I'm hoping to raise enough cash to do the whole tour from start to finish. I'd be devastated to return home from a pretty benign stormchase to read of impending tornado breakouts.!

Sounds a good way to do it, capture everything in one long eventful chase, way cool.

Edited May 22, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[icbinb]

SPC having a fun day today!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221806Z - 222000Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH

DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY ALL

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODED...THUS EXPECTED CU ALONG THE

DRYLINE TO ERUPT INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS

LIKELY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT WILL BE

MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011

[ItIsGee]

any live news streams?

looking good for today

[Arron]

Sat in Garage car park at the moment just west of Denton, TX. Going to wait a little while as we're right in the spot of the "Greater Tornado Threat" issued in the MD 851.

Live streaming is up and running and should hold out all day

[icbinb]

Tornado watch issued north and east of the team.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 325

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

130 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHEAST KANSAS

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900

PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW

323...WW 324...

DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT

ONE TO TWO HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SERN KS AND NERN

OK. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER

70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS

BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG.

THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. MOREOVER...SWRN EXTENSION

OF A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE

REGION...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND AN

ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...MEAD

[NL]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 130 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI EASTERN OKLAHOMA THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

Edited May 22, 2011 by NL

[nsrobins]

Sat in Garage car park at the moment just west of Denton, TX. Going to wait a little while as we're right in the spot of the "Greater Tornado Threat" issued in the MD 851.

Live streaming is up and running and should hold out all day

Well my initial data based target of SE OK looking good now, but with a massively unstable atmosphere in place (can you feel it?!) I think you may have to only creep NE a tad - maybe Sherman/Paris - to get into the mix.

Edit: Vis sat shows agitated Cu field in a line Wilson, OK - Bowie, TX - Mineral Wells, TX. Probably forming along the boundary and this could be the place that fires in the next half hour. Storm motion NE. You could very well be in a nice little spot there.

Edited May 22, 2011 by nsrobins

[icbinb]

Another tornado watch!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 326

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

150 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900

PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS

TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW

323...WW 324...WW 325...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE

DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING ERODES

REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE

WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES

APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH

35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE

OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS

EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

...MEAD

[nsrobins]

Looks like Kris Hair and Texastornadochasers (stream - Tornadovideo.net) have the same idea. Both now steaming northwest towards Wichita Falls area.

Doh - they're both now heading north again!

It's a real dilema given the issues the models have had recently with initiation and severity. Several juicy set-ups have gone down the bog these last few weeks but I think this could be different.

Edited May 22, 2011 by nsrobins

[Arron]

We're bang smack in the middle of the tornado watch now and man it feels juicy out here! Just hopping into OK to get a good view point.

[Paul]

Looking forward to tonight - good luck all!

For anyone who's not on there yet - live streaming is up and running:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[ItIsGee]

http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/subindex/video/Live_Video