Autumn 2011

[A Winter's Tale]

About the poll above. By "first snowfall" we are talking about over the Scottish Mountains yes? Not in the middle of London or Birmingham?

Snow could fall on the Scottish Mountains as early as the weekend.

I think on the 27th September last year we saw our first settlement snowfall, albeit in Altnaharra.

I am going for a little hill snow in September and a bit more in October with some to lower levels and more widespread and frequent snow sometime in november.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Some bad news is that La Nina appears to be re-developing - we are now down to an index of -0.56 for Nino 3.4. The only crumb of comfort that I can offer is that La Nina developed rapidly during July / Aug last year and by this time last year we were down to an index of below -1. In 2007 a strong La Nina developed rapidly during Sept / Oct. Two out of the last four winters have seen a moderate to strong La Nina in place - will it ever end? History tells us that a number of weak La Ninas have delivered a decent winter - but if a La Nina gets too strong, then it is the kiss of death for winter almost - most strong La Nina winters are devoid of anything decently wintry in the UK - and the brief cold spells are usually from Rex mid-latitude blocks. Only in the case of last winter did a strong La Nina deliver a pear shaped winter - an exceptional pre Xmas period - and then the rest of the winter was a grindingly long period of rubbish.

[A Winter's Tale]

Some bad news is that La Nina appears to be re-developing - we are now down to an index of -0.56 for Nino 3.4. The only crumb of comfort that I can offer is that La Nina developed rapidly during July / Aug last year and by this time last year we were down to an index of below -1. In 2007 a strong La Nina developed rapidly during Sept / Oct. Two out of the last four winters have seen a moderate to strong La Nina in place - will it ever end? History tells us that a number of weak La Ninas have delivered a decent winter - but if a La Nina gets too strong, then it is the kiss of death for winter almost - most strong La Nina winters are devoid of anything decently wintry in the UK - and the brief cold spells are usually from Rex mid-latitude blocks. Only in the case of last winter did a strong La Nina deliver a pear shaped winter - an exceptional pre Xmas period - and then the rest of the winter was a grindingly long period of rubbish.

Look, winters such as 2006-2007 were absolutely pathetic in this location. Infact we had many pathetic winters between 2002 and 2009. The weather we had beyond Christmas 2010 exceeded that of the whole of 2006-2007 with a very decent cold snap in early January and far superior to that of many other winters. And there were plenty of other decent snowfalls and cold snaps and I had the joint latest lying snow I've ever seen and it was amongst the snowiest winters I have ever seen. So If we have a two week cold spell in December with plenty of snow and the rest of the winter being mild well I would be quite happy.

Here is the snowfalls and lying snow dates for my location last year in my "First Snowfall of the Winter" Blog:

Friday 26th November - A Band of Heavy Snow crossed - Lying Snow of about an inch

Saturday 27th November - A band of Heavy Snow cossed during the eary hours - About an Inch of lying snow.

Sunday 28th November - Band of Snow across the Central Belt of Scotland - About 15cm of lying snow

Monday 29th November - Band of snow moving from the North Sea fell - Around 15cm of lying snow

Tuesday 30th November - Showers coming from the east brought snow - Around 10-15cm of lying snow.

Wednesday 1st December - Snow Showers on and off from the east - Around 15-20cm of lying snow

Thursday 2nd December - Snow showers from the east - Around 20cm of lying snow

Friday 3rd December - A Band from the west brought snow (cold night -12c) - Around 20cm of lying (School Evacuated at twenty to 3)

Saturday 4th December - No Snowfall recorded - Around 20cm of lying snow

Sunday 5th December - Light snow in early hours - Around 12-15cm of Lying Snow

Monday 6th December - Very Heavy Snow from the North West - An extra 5-10cm in places so 15-20cm+

Tuesday 7th December - No snowfall - Snow Day with School officially Closed - 25 cm of lying snow (very cold day as it never got above -10c)

Wednesday 8th December - Tiny Flakes - Snow Day again - 25cm of lying snow

Thursday 9th December - No Snowfall - Snow Day Again - 20-25cm of snow max

Friday 10th December - No snowfall - 5-10cm of lying snow- thaw

Saturday 11th December - No Snowfall - 0-5cm of lying snow

Sunday 12th December - No Snowfall - 0-5cm of lying snowfall

Monday 13th December - No Snowfall - Remains of lying snow

Tuesday 14th December - No Snowfall - Remains of lying snow (5cm max)

Wednesday 15th December - No snowfall - Remains of lyings snow

Thursday 16th December - Heavy snow showers from north - Remains of lying snow and fresh dusting

Friday 17th December - No snowfall - Some lying snow

Saturday 18th December - Snow from the South West - A fresh cover of a few cm

Sunday 19th December - Snow from the east - Quite a good covering of snow

Monday 20th December - Tiny flakes - Quite a good covering of snow.

Tuesday 21st December - No Snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Wednesday 22nd December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Thursday 23rd December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Friday 24th December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Saturday 25th December (Christmas) - Snow fell in the early hours from the NW so an official white christmas! - A nice covering of a few cm so a white christmas

Sunday 26th December - No snowfall Observed - Some lying snow (less of it due to less cold temperatures)

Monday 27th December - No snowfall - Some lying snow (less of it due to less cold temperatures).

Monday 3rd January 2011 - Snowfall from NW - not settling that much

Wednesday 5th January - A Little snow in the early hours - No lying snow

Friday 7th January - Snow coming from south - Pretty decent lying snow of a few cm

Saturday 8th January - Snow continuing from SW - Decent cover of snow

Sunday 9th January - No snowfall - Decent few cm cover of snow

Monday 10th January - No snowfall - Some lying snow

Wednesday 12th January - Snow from the west - An inch and a few cm of wet lying snow.

Thursday 13th January - No snowfall - A little bit of lying snow in the early hours

Saturday 29th January - Some small flakes (uncomfirmed) - No Lying snow *(uncomfirmed.

Wednesday 3rd February - Heavy snowfall late on from the west - Lying snow on some surfaces

Thursday 4th February - Heavy snow in Morning - An inch of lying snow

Monday 7th February - Rain turned to snow - no lying snow

Monday 14th February - Rain turned to snow - A cm of lying snow

Saturday 19th February - Rain turned to sow briefly in the early hours - No lying snow

Monday 21st February - Snow arrived from west - Despite persistent snowfall, it failed to settle

Wednesday 9th March - Snow arrived from NW - In the morning there was about a cm of lying snow on some surfaces.

Thursday 10th March - Some showers turned to snow - No lying snow.

Friday 11th March - Some snow flakes from front from the south meeting colder air - No lying snow

Saturday 12th March - Snow coming from a band moving north - A 1-2cm (maybe more) of lying snow

Sunday 13th March - Rain turned to some snow at the end of the day - No lying snow

Monday 14th March - Some wet snow flakes - No lying snow

Tuesday 15th March - A period of wet snow - Despite persistent and heavy snowfall there was only a cm of wet lying snow on cars and grass.

So Here are the Facts:

Total Consecutive days of Falling Snow: 8 Days (26th November to 3rd December)

Largest Snow Depth: 25cm (6-9th December)

White Christmas: Yes

Total Snow Fall Days: November (5), December (10), January (5), February (6), March (7) Winter Total= 33 days

Lying Snow: November (5), December (27), January (6), February (3), March (3) Winter Total = 43 days

Total Days with either falling or lying snow: 54 days

Snow Season: 26 November - 15 March (so far)

So I would love atleast one very decent snowfall in December and a handful of other decent cold/snowp spells in January and Febuary. For me on a personal note, I find December is the best time to have the cold and snowy weather so last winter was pretty ideal from my point of view. Even during the winter of 2006-2007 there were plenty of brief cold snaps but they didn't have the snow.

[Summer Sun]

Some bad news is that La Nina appears to be re-developing - we are now down to an index of -0.56 for Nino 3.4. The only crumb of comfort that I can offer is that La Nina developed rapidly during July / Aug last year and by this time last year we were down to an index of below -1. In 2007 a strong La Nina developed rapidly during Sept / Oct. Two out of the last four winters have seen a moderate to strong La Nina in place - will it ever end? History tells us that a number of weak La Ninas have delivered a decent winter - but if a La Nina gets too strong, then it is the kiss of death for winter almost - most strong La Nina winters are devoid of anything decently wintry in the UK - and the brief cold spells are usually from Rex mid-latitude blocks. Only in the case of last winter did a strong La Nina deliver a pear shaped winter - an exceptional pre Xmas period - and then the rest of the winter was a grindingly long period of rubbish.

So what your-saying is those who like a cold snowy could be disappointed?, if this is the case how would winter turn out? Wet and Cool? or Dry and Slightly warmer than average?

Edited August 24, 2011 by Gavin D

[sparky1972]

well i guess for someone like me who loves cold frosty snowy weather, winter going to be a big disappointment. lol

[Summer Sun]

Here's what the "Amature" forecasters at PWS think may happen during September.

September: some late summer - and some early autumn

The first month of autumn looks set to open with some relatively fine weather for most parts, more reliably so across southern regions of the British Isles. The odd shower cannot be ruled out. As September progresses, predominantly westerly winds look likely to carry Atlantic weather systems across the country, heralding spells of wetter and windier conditions alternating with showery and brighter interludes for most parts. Whilst PWS does not currently expect September to provide any really lengthy episodes of settled weather and sunshine, there will nevertheless be some more pleasant interludes of a few days’ duration at many points through the month – southern and eastern regions of England once again appear most favoured. Temperatures in general across Britain and Ireland are expected to be on or around the average, perhaps slightly below. In terms of rainfall again we anticipate near-average outcomes, perhaps a touch above, - this does however incorporate the likelihood of some significant rain at times.

Ray Anthony

Chief Assistant Forecaster

Thursday August 25th 2011

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Month-Ahead-Forecast.php

Also you have to laugh at the Extreme Long Range forecast, 36% chance of a White Christmas. As if you can predict that this far ahead

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

[North-Easterly Blast]

Look, winters such as 2006-2007 were absolutely pathetic in this location. Infact we had many pathetic winters between 2002 and 2009. The weather we had beyond Christmas 2010 exceeded that of the whole of 2006-2007 with a very decent cold snap in early January and far superior to that of many other winters. And there were plenty of other decent snowfalls and cold snaps and I had the joint latest lying snow I've ever seen and it was amongst the snowiest winters I have ever seen. So If we have a two week cold spell in December with plenty of snow and the rest of the winter being mild well I would be quite happy.

Here is the snowfalls and lying snow dates for my location last year in my "First Snowfall of the Winter" Blog:

Friday 26th November - A Band of Heavy Snow crossed - Lying Snow of about an inch

Saturday 27th November - A band of Heavy Snow cossed during the eary hours - About an Inch of lying snow.

Sunday 28th November - Band of Snow across the Central Belt of Scotland - About 15cm of lying snow

Monday 29th November - Band of snow moving from the North Sea fell - Around 15cm of lying snow

Tuesday 30th November - Showers coming from the east brought snow - Around 10-15cm of lying snow.

Wednesday 1st December - Snow Showers on and off from the east - Around 15-20cm of lying snow

Thursday 2nd December - Snow showers from the east - Around 20cm of lying snow

Friday 3rd December - A Band from the west brought snow (cold night -12c) - Around 20cm of lying (School Evacuated at twenty to 3)

Saturday 4th December - No Snowfall recorded - Around 20cm of lying snow

Sunday 5th December - Light snow in early hours - Around 12-15cm of Lying Snow

Monday 6th December - Very Heavy Snow from the North West - An extra 5-10cm in places so 15-20cm+

Tuesday 7th December - No snowfall - Snow Day with School officially Closed - 25 cm of lying snow (very cold day as it never got above -10c)

Wednesday 8th December - Tiny Flakes - Snow Day again - 25cm of lying snow

Thursday 9th December - No Snowfall - Snow Day Again - 20-25cm of snow max

Friday 10th December - No snowfall - 5-10cm of lying snow- thaw

Saturday 11th December - No Snowfall - 0-5cm of lying snow

Sunday 12th December - No Snowfall - 0-5cm of lying snowfall

Monday 13th December - No Snowfall - Remains of lying snow

Tuesday 14th December - No Snowfall - Remains of lying snow (5cm max)

Wednesday 15th December - No snowfall - Remains of lyings snow

Thursday 16th December - Heavy snow showers from north - Remains of lying snow and fresh dusting

Friday 17th December - No snowfall - Some lying snow

Saturday 18th December - Snow from the South West - A fresh cover of a few cm

Sunday 19th December - Snow from the east - Quite a good covering of snow

Monday 20th December - Tiny flakes - Quite a good covering of snow.

Tuesday 21st December - No Snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Wednesday 22nd December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Thursday 23rd December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Friday 24th December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm

Saturday 25th December (Christmas) - Snow fell in the early hours from the NW so an official white christmas! - A nice covering of a few cm so a white christmas

Sunday 26th December - No snowfall Observed - Some lying snow (less of it due to less cold temperatures)

Monday 27th December - No snowfall - Some lying snow (less of it due to less cold temperatures).

Monday 3rd January 2011 - Snowfall from NW - not settling that much

Wednesday 5th January - A Little snow in the early hours - No lying snow

Friday 7th January - Snow coming from south - Pretty decent lying snow of a few cm

Saturday 8th January - Snow continuing from SW - Decent cover of snow

Sunday 9th January - No snowfall - Decent few cm cover of snow

Monday 10th January - No snowfall - Some lying snow

Wednesday 12th January - Snow from the west - An inch and a few cm of wet lying snow.

Thursday 13th January - No snowfall - A little bit of lying snow in the early hours

Saturday 29th January - Some small flakes (uncomfirmed) - No Lying snow *(uncomfirmed.

Wednesday 3rd February - Heavy snowfall late on from the west - Lying snow on some surfaces

Thursday 4th February - Heavy snow in Morning - An inch of lying snow

Monday 7th February - Rain turned to snow - no lying snow

Monday 14th February - Rain turned to snow - A cm of lying snow

Saturday 19th February - Rain turned to sow briefly in the early hours - No lying snow

Monday 21st February - Snow arrived from west - Despite persistent snowfall, it failed to settle

Wednesday 9th March - Snow arrived from NW - In the morning there was about a cm of lying snow on some surfaces.

Thursday 10th March - Some showers turned to snow - No lying snow.

Friday 11th March - Some snow flakes from front from the south meeting colder air - No lying snow

Saturday 12th March - Snow coming from a band moving north - A 1-2cm (maybe more) of lying snow

Sunday 13th March - Rain turned to some snow at the end of the day - No lying snow

Monday 14th March - Some wet snow flakes - No lying snow

Tuesday 15th March - A period of wet snow - Despite persistent and heavy snowfall there was only a cm of wet lying snow on cars and grass.

So Here are the Facts:

Total Consecutive days of Falling Snow: 8 Days (26th November to 3rd December)

Largest Snow Depth: 25cm (6-9th December)

White Christmas: Yes

Total Snow Fall Days: November (5), December (10), January (5), February (6), March (7) Winter Total= 33 days

Lying Snow: November (5), December (27), January (6), February (3), March (3) Winter Total = 43 days

Total Days with either falling or lying snow: 54 days

Snow Season: 26 November - 15 March (so far)

So I would love atleast one very decent snowfall in December and a handful of other decent cold/snowp spells in January and Febuary. For me on a personal note, I find December is the best time to have the cold and snowy weather so last winter was pretty ideal from my point of view. Even during the winter of 2006-2007 there were plenty of brief cold snaps but they didn't have the snow.

Although when there was a major cold spell at the start of last winter it wasn't even Christmas for another three weeks. In the three weeks to Christmas life is often very busy, there is Christmas shopping to do both for presents and food, and writing Christmas cards, so there is plenty to do just prior to Xmas, and plenty of functions going on, whereas in Jan / Feb there is nothing to fill time in, just a big gap from Xmas to the start of spring, so having cold and snow then gives something to look forward to when life is much quieter, and it is such a long time from Christmas to Easter and the beginning of spring if it is mild all the way. I would say that the best scenario for a winter would be to see a major cold spell developing from about Dec 20th to 24th, to see the Xmas period with the first serious freeze up of the winter, and to then have frequent cold and snow through Jan and Feb, then spring is almost here by the time the winter cold is finished, not for it to dissappear at Xmas and then have two months of nothing to get through before spring.

[A Winter's Tale]

Although when there was a major cold spell at the start of last winter it wasn't even Christmas for another three weeks. In the three weeks to Christmas life is often very busy, there is Christmas shopping to do both for presents and food, and writing Christmas cards, so there is plenty to do just prior to Xmas, and plenty of functions going on, whereas in Jan / Feb there is nothing to fill time in, just a big gap from Xmas to the start of spring, so having cold and snow then gives something to look forward to when life is much quieter, and it is such a long time from Christmas to Easter and the beginning of spring if it is mild all the way. I would say that the best scenario for a winter would be to see a major cold spell developing from about Dec 20th to 24th, to see the Xmas period with the first serious freeze up of the winter, and to then have frequent cold and snow through Jan and Feb, then spring is almost here by the time the winter cold is finished, not for it to dissappear at Xmas and then have two months of nothing to get through before spring.

I take your point but really the way Brits react to snow is totally embarrising. We should be able to cope with it. Nice cold crisp weather with snow would be fine at Christmas if the council did things properly and got the transport system sorted and things would be fine. Economically, to have snow in January and Febuary could be costly with most people back at work and also kids missing eductation so from any perspective at any time, winter weather has its down points.

[Aaron]

It's the same in France and Germany. Neither country are any better prepared for snow due to the infrequency of major snow events, especially over the past 20 years.

[Robbie Garrett]

The charts above seem a little wayward, I seriously doubt it would be below average 4-5 months in a run. Mind you these charts change quite frequently so I imagine they'll be showing a completely different outcome, come say October.

Is there any records to suggest a 'Cold Summer' can lead to a very very harsh winter? Last year (August) was freezing, I don't think the next few months where any better, temperature wise. But this Summer has been so cold compared to many, that it could be a sign of things to come. September was quite good, as it usually is - but October/November/December was poor, January/February was just hazy, foggy/misty.

This Summer I've shut the window a lot, because it's been so chilly. The fact that temperatures have been kept at bay so much this year, with not many blue sky sunshine days really does keep those temperatures down, I am wondering what September has to say for itself, if it's a cool one I think we can expect Winter to start late Autumn lasting till early January.

We've got a cold air mass moving through, which will make the August CET pretty lowly, but these are the latest CET figures. June 13.8 -0.4 July 15.2 -0.8 August 16.4 0.5

provisional, to the 23rd

What's the Chances? Current provisional anomaly is 0.99 of *C and we are heading to Autumn/Winter - what's there to say that we may have the coldest year on record?

[Cheese Rice]

The South East doesn't know the meaning of the word cold lol. Wait till you experience a summer or even winter in Northern England.

I looked at weather station records for London and the winters are so unbelievably tame, there are many occasions where London has rain and 8.c while we have snow and 0.c.

Edited August 25, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[NorthernRab]

The South East doesn't know the meaning of the word cold lol. Wait till you experience a summer or even winter in Northern England.

I looked at weather station records for London and the winters are so unbelievably tame, there are many occasions where London has rain and 8.c while we have snow and 0.c.

It's all about what you're used to though, many people from here in the Scottish Highlands would consider your weather tame in the way that you consider S/E English weather tame - similarly, many from Norway would consider a Highland winter to be quite soft.

Let's just hope this one is colder for all of us

[Radiating Dendrite]

Is there any records to suggest a 'Cold Summer' can lead to a very very harsh winter? Last year (August) was freezing, I don't think the next few months where any better, temperature wise. But this Summer has been so cold compared to many, that it could be a sign of things to come. September was quite good, as it usually is - but October/November/December was poor, January/February was just hazy, foggy/misty.

This Summer I've shut the window a lot, because it's been so chilly. The fact that temperatures have been kept at bay so much this year, with not many blue sky sunshine days really does keep those temperatures down, I am wondering what September has to say for itself, if it's a cool one I think we can expect Winter to start late Autumn lasting till early January.

We've got a cold air mass moving through, which will make the August CET pretty lowly, but these are the latest CET figures. June 13.8 -0.4 July 15.2 -0.8 August 16.4 0.5

provisional, to the 23rd

What's the Chances? Current provisional anomaly is 0.99 of *C and we are heading to Autumn/Winter - what's there to say that we may have the coldest year on record?

There is more chance of bob the yeti showing up at your house than us having the coldest year on record. The coldest year on record was 6.84c in 1740, we will be at least 2.8-3.0c warmer than this for the current year.

[Aaron]

There's really no relation to cold summers and cold winters. It has no effect whatsoever. This winter could end up being the mildest in the past 100 years, or maybe the coldest ever, who knows, but the current summer really has no part to play.

The South East doesn't know the meaning of the word cold lol. Wait till you experience a summer or even winter in Northern England.

I looked at weather station records for London and the winters are so unbelievably tame, there are many occasions where London has rain and 8.c while we have snow and 0.c.

Not necessarily true. Stations in the south east like Benson recorded -18C temperatures last winter and regularly feature as one of the coldest in the UK, especially in months such as March. Yeovilton in the South West also recorded -17C in the winter of 2009 - 2010. Not sure why these places get so cold yet so low lying and so far south. Even a place in Buckinghamshire near London recorded -19c last December, of course daytime temperatures are much higher and snow doesn't last long compared to here.

Edited August 25, 2011 by aaron

[Robbie Garrett]

Thanks for confirming, am I correct in saying - that even though the solar output on the summer/autumn side of the sun is picking up, we are 12 weeks away from the Winter side of the sun, which could be totally different?

Well I've had -15 at 5am in the Rural parts of London (Biggin Hill Airport) and that felt cold. But yes compared to many places, Winter in London is very warm compared to most parts, but that's mostly due to the urban affect.

What was interesting is I've read that London could dip past the -20s this winter, bit far fetched but you never know anything is really possible, it is after all Great British Weather.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Thanks for confirming, am I correct in saying - that even though the solar output on the summer/autumn side of the sun is picking up, we are 12 weeks away from the Winter side of the sun, which could be totally different?

Well I've had -15 at 5am in the Rural parts of London (Biggin Hill Airport) and that felt cold. But yes compared to many places, Winter in London is very warm compared to most parts, but that's mostly due to the urban affect.

What was interesting is I've read that London could dip past the -20s this winter, bit far fetched but you never know anything is really possible, it is after all Great British Weather.

Winter side of the sun?

The sun rotates like the earth (although some parts rotate quicker than others due to it being a ball of plasma). There is no winter side of the sun.

[summer blizzard]

Is there any records to suggest a 'Cold Summer' can lead to a very very harsh winter? Last year (August) was freezing, I don't think the next few months where any better, temperature wise. But this Summer has been so cold compared to many, that it could be a sign of things to come. September was quite good, as it usually is - but October/November/December was poor, January/February was just hazy, foggy/misty.

What's the Chances? Current provisional anomaly is 0.99 of *C and we are heading to Autumn/Winter - what's there to say that we may have the coldest year on record?

Firstly, there is amost 0% chance that we will get an average anomoly in excess of 3C below average for September-December. So no, 2011 will not be anywhere near the coldest and record and is likely to be warmer than 2010.

Secondly, while there is is no link in regards to temperature there is a positive correlation between the summer AO phase being repeated during winter. June 2011 was the 4th most -AO june on record and August is likely to shatter the -AO record for August which does bode well. We also broke the record this summer for the most consecutive -NAO days at something like 77.

Some promising signs, but nothing set in stone.

It's the same in France and Germany. Neither country are any better prepared for snow due to the infrequency of major snow events, especially over the past 20 years.

That may be the case in France, but i do get the impression that Germany copes much better than the UK.

Some bad news is that La Nina appears to be re-developing - we are now down to an index of -0.56 for Nino 3.4. The only crumb of comfort that I can offer is that La Nina developed rapidly during July / Aug last year and by this time last year we were down to an index of below -1. In 2007 a strong La Nina developed rapidly during Sept / Oct. Two out of the last four winters have seen a moderate to strong La Nina in place - will it ever end? History tells us that a number of weak La Ninas have delivered a decent winter - but if a La Nina gets too strong, then it is the kiss of death for winter almost - most strong La Nina winters are devoid of anything decently wintry in the UK - and the brief cold spells are usually from Rex mid-latitude blocks. Only in the case of last winter did a strong La Nina deliver a pear shaped winter - an exceptional pre Xmas period - and then the rest of the winter was a grindingly long period of rubbish.

I must emphasise that a strengthening La Nina is not always a bad thing. It depends on the strength, when it peaks and whether it is east or west based. (a weakening moderate La Nina combined with a strengthening -QBO would be the best in my opinion so lets hope for a November peak). There are many factors.

There are also several other factors to take into account such as the QBO phase which is the opposite to last year.

Edited August 25, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Weather-history]

whereas in Jan / Feb there is nothing to fill time in, just a big gap from Xmas to the start of spring, so having cold and snow then gives something to look forward to when life is much quieter, and it is such a long time from Christmas to Easter and the beginning of spring if it is mild all the way.

With all due repsect, you must having a boring life if you are requiring snow to fill it. May I suggest a hobby outside the sphere of weather?

[Radiating Dendrite]

With all due repsect, you must having a boring life if you are requiring snow to fill it. May I suggest a hobby outside the sphere of weather?

Skiing perhaps?

[Cheese Rice]

Something that interests me is the variation between north and south during cold weather spells.

One comparison I've made is the March 2006 cold spell. Comparing London Heathrow Airport, Leeds Bradford Airport and Edinburgh Airport.

The Ice Symbol represents the day when snow fell, the temperature max and min is the 'Actual' temperature, the 'Average' temperature is the average temp normally seen on that day based on records dating from around 1995.

What is interesting is despite Edinburgh been further north LBA saw colder temperatures and more snow. While the spell for London seemed fairly cool but nothing of interest.

Edited August 25, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[NorthernRab]

Something that interests me is the variation between the north and south during cold weather spells.

One comparison I've made is the March 2006 cold spell. Comparing London Heathrow Airport, Leeds Bradford Airport and Edinburgh Airport.

The Ice Symbol represents the day when snow fell, the temperature max and min is the 'Actual' temperature, the 'Average' temperature is the average temp normally seen on that based on records dating from around 1995.

What is interesting is despite Edinburgh been further north LBA saw colder temperatures and more snow. While the spell for London seemed fairly cool but nothing of interest.

But when you consider that you're comparing LBA to Edinburgh (LBA being a considerably higher weather station) it's not too surprising. That cold spell you've referred to didn't really affect Scotland as much on those dates, the deeper cold was at the start of the month (I remember it quite well) when the temperature only just went above 0'C on the 2nd and reached a low of -10.6'C here in Inverness. However, on the day you've referred to we weren't as affected.

Being a small island, Britain sees certain parts of the country getting weather they normally wouldn't when areas that are more prone to such weather are spared. Generally, because much of the Scottish Highlands is inland, at higher altitude and so far North (very short days / more at risk of Arctic influence) the coldest weather is recorded here in comparison to Edinburgh. Similarly, Edinburgh and Leeds often experience weather London doesn't and from time to time, London is worse hit than Leeds, Edinburgh and even parts of the Scottish Highlands.

Crazy island weather

[Cheese Rice]

Well yes in general there is some truth to what you are saying. Overall though when comparing the cold spells over the last three years the weather station for LBA shows more snow and lower temperatures. Even during the first week of March 2006 to which you refereed to LBA was still colder than Edinburgh.

[snowlover2009]

la nina is getting stronger around january 2012, some runs go off the page! If i am reading it correct

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

Would i write believing this would be bad for cold lovers after december at least?

Oh well, a similar winter to last would not be bad, but hopefully if it does get milder, hopefully some massive storms and interesting weather!

[cheeky_monkey]

For me here in the Western Canada..another La Nina is almost guranteed cold and snowier than normal... last winter was the snowiest for nearly 40 years..and March the coldest for 90 years and all winter months came in below normal as did November.

[NorthernRab]

Well yes in general there is some truth to what you are saying. Overall though when comparing the cold spells over the last three years the weather station for LBA shows more snow and lower temperatures. Even during the first week of March 2006 to which you refereed to LBA was still colder than Edinburgh.

I think I'm missing your point. Is it just that LBA at 200+m and inland is colder than Edinburgh airport at 41m asl and near the sea?