Chase 2011 - Day 29 Discussion

[Nick F]

Later today may see better play than SPC hints at with regards to tornado potential at least and will hopefully produce some storms after yesterday's cap bust. Though capping may still be an issue across Kansas, so may need to trek east into Missouri for initiation. Quite good potential today on paper, with a warm front lifting north out of Oklahoma and Arkansas, with the boundary lying NE from N-central OK up through far eastern Kansas on NE through Missouri, Illinios and Indiana by 18z UTC (12pm CDT) and not moving very far by 06z UTC (midnight CDT):

Wind shear looks pretty decent in the lowest 3km for tornadoes across Ern Kansas and much of central/northern Missouri, though the very best shear maybe north of the warm front, so storms that develop and move north of the warm front and become high based may not utilise the good low-level shear, ideally need storms to ride the warm front as right-movers.

SBCAPE 00z UTC (18z CDT):

SPC tornado probabiliities:

My personal choice of target would be somewhere like Fort Scott in far eastern Kansas near MO border, with road option Hwy 54 east into Missouri.

[Arron]

Morning We're heading up to Hays, KS for lunch and then over to Colorado, hopefully for some Denver cyclone magic

[nsrobins]

Good luck up in the high country today. Sorry about yesterday - it looked very close but no show.

[Arron]

Yeah just one of those days really, never mind, that's one cap bust for each tour!

[Gorky]

I'm giving today a miss and relaxing in Wichita... Just too exhausted for what appears to be a minor risk of anything worth chasing. Gonna catch some films and probably head to the Cosmosphere in Hutchinson tomorrow morning before evaluating tomorrow evenings and Monday's threat. Hope you get lucky and I'm sure I'll catch up later with you guys!

[Mesoscale]

tornado warnings in minnesota:

http://media.myfoxtwincities.com/livestream/web_channel/index.htm