Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, a few dry and warm spells likely

_________________________________

Saturday 29 June – Sunday 7 July

Changeable week, but often dry in the South

A hot start to the weekend for many, with southerly winds bringing in some of the hot air over France to much of England with highs expected to be in the upper twenties to low thirties. Sunny and humid, but with growing clouds in the West as a cold front pushes in Saturday evening and night. This front will bring some heavy showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning to Scotland, Northern Ireland, North England, and North Wales. Staying dry further south and east.

The cold front passes overnight, leaving Sunday feeling noticeably cooler than the hot Saturday (although highs will be around average). A fresh westerly wind with mostly sunny skies and scattered showers in the west and north will persist through Monday. High pressure will then begin to build in through midweek, keeping things more settled, drier, and a touch warmer. However, this too will be short-lived as the high pressure centre weakens in the second half of the week, allowing a low to move in from the northwest. This will be showers and cloudier skies, mainly to northern and north-eastern areas with the south and southwest staying dry. Cooler with a fresh north-westerly wind.

Heading into the weekend, some uncertainties begin to grow, and low pressure is expected to linger over or near Scandinavia with a ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. The main issue is now extensive high pressure ridges in the Atlantic will get, with a potential for the UK to see a fairly settled and slightly warmer weekend, but showers will likely still be a factor for the north-eastern counties.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Settled start, but turning wetter and cooler later

High pressure nearby to the west should keep the first part of the week settled, although winds will be out of the northwest bringing in some cooler air and rain to the far north of Scotland, western Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Low pressure systems over Scandinavia are expected to gradually shift west and be centred more over the UK by the middle of the week and into the end of the week. This will shift winds to more westerly but also bring a return of the slow-moving fronts that plagued the UK throughout June.

All this means that after a mostly dry start to the week, temperatures will tend to stay a bit below average as the weather turns gradually wetter for most. The best of any dryness will be in the South and Southeast, but even here occasional rain is likely. However, high pressure ridges will likely linger into Central Europe from the southwest, and these will tend to keep fronts and low pressure systems more in the northern half of the country than the southern half. There is a risk to the forecast (25%) that high pressure ridges will remain for extensive across the UK through the end of the week. This would mean things will generally be warmer, drier, and calmer overall. Temperatures in this scenario would tend to fall above average, with a potential for some very warm days later in the week.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled and cool; occasionally warmer

Low pressure tracks are expected to remain across North Europe as the jet stream - a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - stays further south than normal for summer. Large low pressure systems will likely slowly drift westwards towards Iceland through the end of July, keep things generally unsettled in the UK with slow-moving fronts and cooler westerly or north-westerly winds persisting.

However, the hotter summertime temperatures in the sub-tropical Atlantic will keep the large high pressure centre near the Azores strong. This will occasional extend northeast into Central Europe, and between low pressure systems will even reach into the UK at times. This will lead to a changeable weather pattern with a high degree of weekly variability in both rainfall and temperatures. The general weather pattern is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a few dry and settled spells that bring in some warmer air. These most often in the south. There are currently no strong signals for any prolonged heat or dryness.

The main alternative scenario to the forecast for late July is that high pressure continues to be more extensive into the UK, resulting in a warmer and drier trend. This is summertime, and the Azores high pressure centre is strong throughout the month, so there is a chance (30%) that late July may turn a bit more summery than June and early July. In this situation there is a risk of another heat wave as well, and these are more common in late July.

Further ahead

We will continue to look at the unsettled weather pattern through July to see when things may finally dry out. This will give us a better picture of any late July heat as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled but a few dry and warm spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 July – Sunday 7 July

Often dry and settled but a wet spell in the north

The middle part of this week will be largely dry and settled for a time with mostly gentle winds albeit cool over northern Scotland. Through Thursday and Friday, high pressure will linger over England and Wales, bringing further mainly dry and settled weather here with periods of sunshine. Temperatures will rise, too, reaching the low to mid 20s Celsius. Scotland and Northern Ireland will become cloudier for a time, though, with a cold front moving in from the north, bringing a spell of rain.

Parts of western Scotland will have some rather heavy and persistent rain later on Thursday. However, any rain should clear southwards and ease by Friday afternoon. This weekend should then see a lot of dry weather over much of the country with spells of sunshine and often gentle winds. Staying cool for July in Scotland while temperatures further south are expected to be near to the seasonal average - feeling pleasant in any lengthier spells of sunshine.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Wet in the northwest. Driest in the southeast.

Through next week, we expect rain-bearing weather fronts to approach from the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty over how far south and east any rain will extend. However, most likely is for a northwest-southeast split to the weather. Northern and western areas of the UK are likely to become wetter and breezier through the week with outbreaks of rain gradually becoming more widespread. However, there should also be a couple of drier and settled days, most likely early to mid-week.

Southern and eastern areas of the UK, including much of central and eastern England, are likely to have lengthier periods of dry and sunny weather with only a little rainfall. It should be warm at times in the south and east, too. However, there is a risk that rain-bearing fronts extend further south and east than expected later in the week, which would bring a cooler, breezier and wetter spell of weather more widely over the UK.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled but occasionally warm

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for July, bringing often unsettled conditions with only short-lived drier and sunnier periods of weather. Fronts moving in from the west are likely to bring some rather heavy spells of rain at times, with a chance of occasional thunder too. Rainfall amounts look like being highest over western and north-western areas of the UK. However, the southeast is likely to have some rainfall too with amounts probably above normal for July.

Breezy at times for many too. However, despite a rather wet outlook, it is not expected to be particularly chilly. Indeed, it is expected to be rather warm at times, perhaps with occasional plumes of very warm weather moving in from the near continent over central and eastern England. There is a chance that the rain-bearing low pressure areas stay a little further east than currently expected, which would lead to drier and brighter conditions through mid to late July, particularly in the west and north.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if any lengthier dry and warm periods of summer weather may develop or whether it is still looking like a generally unsettled July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Big daddy 49]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled but a few dry and warm spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 July – Sunday 7 July

Often dry and settled but a wet spell in the north

The middle part of this week will be largely dry and settled for a time with mostly gentle winds albeit cool over northern Scotland. Through Thursday and Friday, high pressure will linger over England and Wales, bringing further mainly dry and settled weather here with periods of sunshine. Temperatures will rise, too, reaching the low to mid 20s Celsius. Scotland and Northern Ireland will become cloudier for a time, though, with a cold front moving in from the north, bringing a spell of rain.

Parts of western Scotland will have some rather heavy and persistent rain later on Thursday. However, any rain should clear southwards and ease by Friday afternoon. This weekend should then see a lot of dry weather over much of the country with spells of sunshine and often gentle winds. Staying cool for July in Scotland while temperatures further south are expected to be near to the seasonal average - feeling pleasant in any lengthier spells of sunshine.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Wet in the northwest. Driest in the southeast.

Through next week, we expect rain-bearing weather fronts to approach from the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty over how far south and east any rain will extend. However, most likely is for a northwest-southeast split to the weather. Northern and western areas of the UK are likely to become wetter and breezier through the week with outbreaks of rain gradually becoming more widespread. However, there should also be a couple of drier and settled days, most likely early to mid-week.

Southern and eastern areas of the UK, including much of central and eastern England, are likely to have lengthier periods of dry and sunny weather with only a little rainfall. It should be warm at times in the south and east, too. However, there is a risk that rain-bearing fronts extend further south and east than expected later in the week, which would bring a cooler, breezier and wetter spell of weather more widely over the UK.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled but occasionally warm

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for July, bringing often unsettled conditions with only short-lived drier and sunnier periods of weather. Fronts moving in from the west are likely to bring some rather heavy spells of rain at times, with a chance of occasional thunder too. Rainfall amounts look like being highest over western and north-western areas of the UK. However, the southeast is likely to have some rainfall too with amounts probably above normal for July.

Breezy at times for many too. However, despite a rather wet outlook, it is not expected to be particularly chilly. Indeed, it is expected to be rather warm at times, perhaps with occasional plumes of very warm weather moving in from the near continent over central and eastern England. There is a chance that the rain-bearing low pressure areas stay a little further east than currently expected, which would lead to drier and brighter conditions through mid to late July, particularly in the west and north.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if any lengthier dry and warm periods of summer weather may develop or whether it is still looking like a generally unsettled July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

It's the BBC.It will be changed to heatwaves in the next update!.

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Forecast skill low
• Wetter spell mid-July
• Some improvement by August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/05/john-hammond-month-ahead-beware-summer-soothsayers/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable outlook rain at times but some warmth

_________________________________

Saturday 6 July – Sunday 14 July

Mixed bag of weather but some warmth in the south

This weekend, fresher air will move in from the north as a weak cold front clears southwards from the UK. This front will bring a band of cloud and spots of rain southwards over the Midlands and parts of southern Britain on Saturday. Otherwise, much of the UK will see a mixture of sunny intervals and areas of cloud this weekend with only a few localised showers.

On Monday, temperatures should rise slightly with most areas seeing at least a few bright or sunny spells but the south could see a few showery outbreaks of rain. Tuesday should see a lot of dry and settled weather over England and Wales, thanks to a high pressure area but rain looks like making inroads from the west across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Through Wednesday to Friday, a more unsettled spell of weather seems likely with showery outbreaks of rain toppling south-eastwards across the UK. However, there should be a few drier interludes as well. Feeling rather warm and humid, too, where any brighter interludes manage to break through.

By next weekend, the unsettled weather should move away to our east as high pressure approaches from the Atlantic, bringing drier, brighter and warmer weather for most. However, there is a chance that the showers and rain could linger into the first part of the weekend.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

Dry and warm initially, then cooler and wetter

The early part of the week is likely to remain largely dry and warm with an area of high pressure dominating the weather. There is the potential for some very warm or hot weather for a time. However, as the week progresses, we are likely to see weather fronts returning from the Atlantic, bringing a change to wetter and somewhat cooler weather from the west. Most areas should see some rainfall at times through the second half of the week.

Turning coolest in the north, perhaps with temperatures dipping a little below the seasonal average in Scotland by the end of the week. Turning breezier at times in the north, too. There is currently some uncertainty over the timing of this transition of the weather; there are chances that the drier and warm weather could hold on throughout the week.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

Rather unsettled but warm at times in the south

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for summer in late July and into the start of August. This means that it is expected to be unsettled at times with showers and some bands of rain for most, occasionally accompanied by breezy conditions as well. However, most places will also see some drier and sunnier days in-between the spells of rain. Temperatures should not be far from the seasonal average in the north of the UK.

In the south, some warm or occasional very warm spells of weather appear likely with temperatures there a little above the seasonal average. Again, there is a chance that low pressure ends-up staying much further away to our north, which would mean lengthier periods of dry and settled weather if that happens.

Further ahead

The next month is likely to see changeable conditions with some unsettled weather at times. We will take a look to see if there are any signs of low pressure moving further away from the shores of the UK to bring any lengthier periods of summery weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Alaska heatwave: Anchorage hits record temperature

The US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, is sweltering under a heatwave, with record temperatures recorded in several areas, including its largest city. Temperatures reached 90F (32C) in Anchorage on Thursday, shattering the city's previous record of 85F.

Several other places in southern Alaska also set all-time or daily records. Experts say the unusual weather has been caused by a "heat dome" over the southern part of the state. The high pressure system is expected to move north next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48890556 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed bag for much of July. Fine by early August

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 July – Sunday 14 July

An unsettled start, but turning fine later

Wednesday will be rather humid and warm across much of England and Wales. The best of the sunshine looks to be in the south, while there will be more cloud with outbreaks of rain and some showers in central and northern Britain. More widespread showers will push into western and northern areas during the evening and overnight, with some rumbles of thunder becoming increasingly likely too. More widespread thunderstorms will develop across north-east England and Scotland on Thursday, which will be slow-moving and bring heavy rainfall. There will be sunny spells and a few showers elsewhere. On Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely to develop across eastern Britain, although these won't be as heavy as on Thursday.

Much of the rest of the country will be dry with some sunny spells, although a keen north-westerly breeze may take the edge off temperatures along some northern and western coasts. By this weekend, an area of high pressure will slowly drift east across the country. Eastern England may be cloudier on Saturday with a few showers or spots of rain, although it will remain generally dry with sunny spells elsewhere, and warmest in the south-west. Sunday should be a fine and warm summer's day for all, as it will be essentially dry with light winds and some decent sunny spells. Once again, it will be warmest across southern and central England and Wales.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

A fine and warm start, but showers and rain later

During the first half of next week, an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the British weather, with a good deal of warm, dry and calm conditions for all. Many areas should have good periods of sunshine, while it will become increasingly warm too, with the warmth extending east across the country towards midweek. During the latter half of next week, the high should move to the east of the UK, opening the door for Atlantic lows to push a few fronts east across the country. Areas of rain are likely, these most widespread in the west, while a few showers or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoons. Although temperatures will fall back closer to normal, it will still feel pleasant in any sunny spells as winds are likely to remain rather light.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

A return to summer-like weather by August

The last third of July is likely to see rather changeable weather, with areas of high and low pressure competing with one another to influence our weather. However, it does look to remain rather unsettled for a few days around the 22nd, with rain or showers likely, and perhaps some rather breezy weather too, particularly over Scotland. It seems that southern and south-eastern England will have the lion's share of any drier, settled weather, although a return to drier and warmer conditions for all look likely during the final seven days of the month. This should see a return to widespread summer-like weather, while it could become very warm at times in the south.

High pressure looks to linger over the UK as we close out July and head into August, and there is now better agreement on this pattern. With the main low pressure track generally to the north of the UK, much of the country should see a good deal of fine, settled weather once again, although there is a chance of a few fronts bringing stronger winds and bands of rain to northern Scotland at times. South-western areas will be most favoured for the driest and warmest weather.

Further ahead

Will signs of a settled start to August and fine weather for the summer holidays continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Big daddy 49]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed bag for much of July. Fine by early August

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 July – Sunday 14 July

An unsettled start, but turning fine later

Wednesday will be rather humid and warm across much of England and Wales. The best of the sunshine looks to be in the south, while there will be more cloud with outbreaks of rain and some showers in central and northern Britain. More widespread showers will push into western and northern areas during the evening and overnight, with some rumbles of thunder becoming increasingly likely too. More widespread thunderstorms will develop across north-east England and Scotland on Thursday, which will be slow-moving and bring heavy rainfall. There will be sunny spells and a few showers elsewhere. On Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely to develop across eastern Britain, although these won't be as heavy as on Thursday.

Much of the rest of the country will be dry with some sunny spells, although a keen north-westerly breeze may take the edge off temperatures along some northern and western coasts. By this weekend, an area of high pressure will slowly drift east across the country. Eastern England may be cloudier on Saturday with a few showers or spots of rain, although it will remain generally dry with sunny spells elsewhere, and warmest in the south-west. Sunday should be a fine and warm summer's day for all, as it will be essentially dry with light winds and some decent sunny spells. Once again, it will be warmest across southern and central England and Wales.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

A fine and warm start, but showers and rain later

During the first half of next week, an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the British weather, with a good deal of warm, dry and calm conditions for all. Many areas should have good periods of sunshine, while it will become increasingly warm too, with the warmth extending east across the country towards midweek. During the latter half of next week, the high should move to the east of the UK, opening the door for Atlantic lows to push a few fronts east across the country. Areas of rain are likely, these most widespread in the west, while a few showers or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoons. Although temperatures will fall back closer to normal, it will still feel pleasant in any sunny spells as winds are likely to remain rather light.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

A return to summer-like weather by August

The last third of July is likely to see rather changeable weather, with areas of high and low pressure competing with one another to influence our weather. However, it does look to remain rather unsettled for a few days around the 22nd, with rain or showers likely, and perhaps some rather breezy weather too, particularly over Scotland. It seems that southern and south-eastern England will have the lion's share of any drier, settled weather, although a return to drier and warmer conditions for all look likely during the final seven days of the month. This should see a return to widespread summer-like weather, while it could become very warm at times in the south.

High pressure looks to linger over the UK as we close out July and head into August, and there is now better agreement on this pattern. With the main low pressure track generally to the north of the UK, much of the country should see a good deal of fine, settled weather once again, although there is a chance of a few fronts bringing stronger winds and bands of rain to northern Scotland at times. South-western areas will be most favoured for the driest and warmest weather.

Further ahead

Will signs of a settled start to August and fine weather for the summer holidays continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Looks good to me!.

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Forecast skill remains low
• Mixed through late July
• Drier and warmer early August?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-all-set-summer-holidays/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable outlook with rain at times but warm

_________________________________

Saturday 13 July – Sunday 21 July

Mostly fine at first, then unsettled and cooler

This weekend will gradually become drier and settled thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the west. However, on Saturday a band of cloud and showery rain will affect the central spine of Great Britain. The best of the dry weather and sunny spells is likely to be over western and south-western parts of the UK. On Sunday, much of the UK will be dry with some bright or sunny intervals but isolated showers are possible over hills and coasts in the north and west. Quite warm for most this weekend but staying cooler and cloudier near to some North Sea coasts.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry and warm for many with the area of high pressure still influencing the weather. However, showery rain is expected to spread from the Atlantic over parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland by Tuesday. The middle to latter part of next week is then likely to see a significant change in the weather pattern for most of the UK. Wetter, breezier and somewhat cooler weather appears likely to spread from the west as rain-bearing low pressure areas are pushed towards the country by the jet stream. All areas should see some rainfall - there are just slight chances that rain stays further away to the north.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 28 July

Wet and breezy at first, then drier and warmer

The last full week of July is likely to continue the changeable theme to our weather. Initially, it is expected to be showery and rather cool for many because of low pressure areas lingering nearby. As the week progresses, low pressure should lift away northwards, allowing increasingly lengthy drier and warmer periods of weather to develop across the country. Most places should see some warm sunshine returning with England and Wales potentially becoming very warm.

However, there is a significant risk that the showery and breezy conditions persist for longer than expected, particularly in the north. This uncertainty in the forecast is partly because we may see the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry reaching close to our shores and weather prediction models often struggle to resolve these features more than a week in advance.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 11 August

Wettest in the north. Warm and drier in the south

High pressure should bring some decent periods of dry and warm weather for the end of July. However, indications are for northern and western parts of the UK will see a return to wetter and breezier weather at times through early August as fronts re-emerge from the Atlantic. Central, southern and eastern areas of England are expected to see the best of the dry and warm weather with fewer outbreaks of rain reaching those areas.

The southern half of the UK is expected to have temperatures a little above the seasonal average through early August. Further north, it is likely to be less warm with temperatures near to the seasonal average. However, there appear to be chances that drier, settled conditions could remain more widespread across the UK.

Further ahead

Will the changeable weather conditions persist for the country? We will also take a closer look what impacts Tropical Storm Barry, currently affecting the southern USA, might have for the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Next 10 days

Fine until Wednesday
Rain by Thursday
Warmer 3rd week of July

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48971137

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

The unsettled weather pattern lingers into August

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 July – Sunday 21 July

Turning unsettled with a wet end to the week

A wetter and more unsettled end to the week is expected across the UK, although the wettest weather is expected for Scotland and Northern Ireland. On Wednesday, rain will spread in from the west from the morning, reaching western Britain by midday and spreading into central Britain into the afternoon. Rain may be heavy in places, and the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out later. It will stay wet overnight as rain continues to spread across the country, but Scotland and Northern Ireland will be drier.

On Thursday, as rain clears to the east for England, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected in the north of the UK, with a few afternoon showers likely further south. A stronger frontal system arriving Friday morning from the south west will bring widespread rain with some embedded heavy showers and thunderstorms. Local downpours are likely with some of the thunderstorms, which are expected to move through Friday afternoon and evening, lingering into Saturday morning. As the rain gradually clears to the east on Saturday, most places will turn dry and fine with a fresh westerly breeze. However, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon in the south east. Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure will move overhead from the west, keeping things mostly fine and dry save for a few isolated showers in the west. These are expected to become more widespread later in the evening and overnight. Temperatures are expected to remain near average for most places, although the best of the warmth will be on Wednesday in the south.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 28 July

Wet and windy in the north; warmer in the south

The last full week of July will continue with the more unsettled trend, but there is expected to be a north-south split in the weather, with the northern half of the country tending to be wetter and windier. Meanwhile the southern half will see longer dry and warm spells between weak fronts. This is due to building high pressure in central Europe which will compete with the low pressure in the North Atlantic to govern the UK's weather. This high will also bring in some significant heat to Spain, France, and into Germany, which may occasionally reach into the south east of England.

The low pressure tracking into the UK through the week will be driven by the jet stream - which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. There is still a great deal of uncertainty on the strength of the jet stream next week, which is leading to low confidence in the forecast. The UK sits between two rather different air masses, one cool, wet, and windy to the north, and the other hot and dry to the south. A slightly weaker jet stream would allow some of the hotter air from the French heat wave to reach into the UK, resulting in some hot afternoons later in the week. At the same time a slightly stronger jet stream will see wet and windy weather dominate the weather and reach more regularly into the south.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 11 August

Often wet and windy with a few dry and warm breaks

For the end of July and through early August, the weather pattern is expected to remain dominated by low pressure in the North Atlantic. Progressive low pressure tracks will bring outbreaks of rain and some unseasonably windy weather to most of the UK, although more often to the northern half. There will be some drier and warmer spells between fronts, and these will tend to be longer lived for the southern half of the UK, especially the south east of England. These drier spells will be broken up by some fronts which at times will seem very wet for our unusually mostly dry Augusts.

High pressure is expected to gradually build into the area from the south east after it develops over the continent. This will mean that as we head into mid-August, the weather pattern will shift to more settled, drier, and warmer weather in the south and east of the country. The timing of this has been tricky to pin down so far. There is a risk that high pressure may build in much faster, and rain and winds will be pushed off to the west and north into the second week of August, leading to a more summer-like weather pattern. The main source of long-term forecast uncertainty is the potential for tropical storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean through August, which can have a large impact on the weather patterns over the UK. Hurricane season is in full swing, and conditions are perhaps becoming more favourable for some tropical storm development as we head into August, so confidence in the forecast remains low.

Further ahead

We will have a better idea on whether the UK will be tapping into any heat from France for the end of July, and how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[northwestsnow]

Do they ever change their record???

They have been banging on about July being an unsettled month for ages, its turned out to be very dry even in normally soggy NW England.

[Bristawl Si]

On 24/06/2019 at 20:52, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled into mid-July but dry spells too

_________________________________

Saturday 22 June – Sunday 30 June

Turning wetter before heating up for the week

After a fine and dry Saturday, things will turn unsettled from Sunday with rain spreading across the country from the southwest in the afternoon and overnight. Thunderstorms and heavy downpours are expected overnight and through Monday for most, but the far Southeast will likely escape with mostly dry weather. Heading into the working week, low pressure is expected to drift southwest of the UK and linger through the week just west of the Bay of Biscay. This will bring in some very warm or hot air from Spain, through France and up into the UK in an event known as a 'Spanish Plume' which typically brings wet, humid, and hot conditions for most of the UK.

Temperatures are expected to climb for most from our rather cool June and will feel very warm or even hot for most of the country, with the warmest temperatures likely being in the South. The heat will come paired with high humidity, making things feel muggy and even hotter. However, along the East and Southeast coasts, a fresher easterly wind will help provide some relief to the afternoon heat, at least through Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact position of the low pressure centre to the southwest, which will determine how, if anyone, sees heavy rain and thunderstorms through the week. Currently the heaviest rain looks likely to hit Ireland and extreme W Wales but may at times move through Western and Central Britain. The best of the dryness will be in the north and east. The end of the Spanish Plume will come some time into the last weekend of June, but there is low confidence on the exact end date. It does look highly likely that the majority of the working week will be very warm.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 7 July

Cooling off to near normal, but wet again

By the start of July, the Spanish Plume is expected to be over and the heat wave will come to an end. This is due to the jet stream - a current of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - becoming more active and bringing the low pressure system to the southwest into the UK. This means that the weather will turn unsettled and cooler again, similar to what we have seen for most of June. The weather pattern is expected to become westerly with progressive low pressure systems in the North Atlantic bringing some fronts into the UK along with spells of cooler air.

There will likely be a few drier and warmer interludes to break things up, however, especially in the South. Scotland, particularly the northern half, will tend to be cloudier and wetter with fronts tending to linger in the area. High pressure will likely retreat to the southwest near the Azores, and into the Mediterranean, taking the hot and dry weather with them. However, there is a slight risk (around 20%) that near the end of the week and into the weekend a strong ridge of the Azores high pressure will extend northeast into Scandinavia, crossing the UK and bringing in warmer and dryer weather while pushing low pressure systems off towards Iceland.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 21 July

Staying unsettled at first but improving later

The unsettled weather is likely to continue through much of July, and there are indications that it is unlikely we will see any long-lived and sustained high pressure keeping things hot and dry like the previous summer or 2018. However, it does look like we may see a brief respite from the cool and wet summer towards the middle or latter half of the month. Low pressure tracks along the jet stream are expected to remain progressive across the North Atlantic at least through the middle of July. This means the second full week of July will likely still be quite unsettled, with some fronts bringing rain to many, but also some dry and sunny gaps in between. Temperatures will generally be near, or perhaps a touch below, average.

Heading into the third full week of July, the jet stream may begin to wander north and south, which will allow some of the warmer tropical air under the Azores high pressure system to reach into the UK at times when the jet stream heads north. This will bring with it sunnier and drier weather, with temperatures climbing above average. However, we do not expect high pressure to last, and as the jet stream dips southwards high pressure will return to sub-tropical latitudes. This sort of weather pattern is inherently highly unpredictable in the long-range, so day-to-day and even week-to-week details become tricky to pin down with any certainty. There is a risk (20%) that low pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the entire month, keeping things wetter and cooler than summer normally is. However, there is also a lower risk (~15%) that high pressure may become more influential, especially later into July.

Further ahead

We will be able to pin down with more confidence the end of the Spanish Plume heat wave and see how summer-like July will be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

That forecast was a pile of doggy-do for first 2 weeks of July

[Methuselah]

Here's Gavin P's latest outlook. But, bear in mind that he's using the GEFS 06Z ensembles.

He does tend to waffle a bit, but that's due to enthusiasm.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

The latest MetO 10-Day Trend: 

 

[johnholmes]

I like that presentation, showing very clearly the differences between GFS and ECMWF and how this impacts on the professional forecaster presenting their forecasts.

Well worth watching in my view.

[Summer Sun]

US weather: Temperature records set to fall as 'dangerous' heatwave predicted

Major cities are making plans to help people cope with the extreme temperatures set to arrive this weekend.

The National Weather Service is predicting high temperatures and humidity across several states, including Michigan and Kansas, while Washington DC will feel almost as hot as Death Valley in California. The capital will bake in a forecast high of 38C (100F), but it will feel closer to 43C (110F) - prompting mayor Muriel Bowser to declare a heat emergency.

https://news.sky.com/story/us-weather-temperature-records-set-to-fall-as-dangerous-heatwave-predicted-11765997

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Early hot spell
• Cooler westerlies soon return
• Rain and shine through August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/19/john-hammond-month-ahead-brief-blast-heat/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

The often wet and windy weather continues

_________________________________

Saturday 20 July – Sunday 28 July

Heating up in the South next week, cooler later

A fairly unsettled Saturday will see a gradually shift into a more north-south split in the weather for the UK from Sunday and into next week for a time. Saturday will start off wet in the Southeast with some heavy showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. This rain will clear to the east by the late morning. Scattered heavy showers will then drift into all areas of Britain from the west in the late morning, and by the afternoon a few thunderstorms are expected in central and eastern Britain. These will produce locally frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

From Sunday and through into Tuesday, high pressure building in Central Europe will keep things fine and dry in the southern half of the UK, but the northern half will see plenty of rain, which will be heavy at times. There is a risk for some local flooding in West Scotland from Sunday through Tuesday. A heat wave expected to develop in France will bring in some hot air to the Southeast from Tuesday, with temperatures well above average and reaching into the low 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Staying a bit cooler up north, but still warmer than this week has been.

For the second half of the week, there is some uncertainty in the forecast based on a cold front arriving from the west. The jet stream - a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - is unusually strong for summertime in the United States and Atlantic. This will likely result in a cold front arriving on Thursday, bringing some relief from the heat but also a risk for some heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially in the North. Low pressure will then take over, and keep things unsettled and feeling cooler through the weekend.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 4 August

Cooler and more unsettled start to August

As we head into August, there is good support for low pressure systems to become more dominant weather features for North Europe, allowing Atlantic fronts to move through the UK. High pressure is also expected to ease in the near Continent, so fronts are expected to reach into southern areas of the UK as well as the north. For the first half of the week winds are expected to bring in some cooler polar air causing temperatures to dip to near or below average for late July/early August. This will be more noticeable in the west and north, with a cooler feeling onshore breeze. In general northern and western areas will see more frequent showers and cloudy skies, with the best of the dry and bright weather being in the south and east.

Fronts will bring in short-lived outbreaks of rain to all areas at times, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty on the day-to-day specifics. As the week progresses, low pressure is expected to gradually shift slightly northwards towards Iceland, which will likely bring in a return to the north-south split in the weather. The northern half of the UK will continue to see wetter and windier weather than typical for August, while the southern half of the UK turns a bit drier and brighter, although still occasional outbreaks of rain.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 18 August

Wet and windy, but drier at times in the South

For the first full week of August, low pressure will still be very much in charge of the weather pattern for the UK. This will bring in Atlantic fronts, outbreaks of rain and occasional thunderstorms, and windy weather to mostly northern regions. Occasionally the wetter and windier weather will reach into the southern half of the country, but it will generally be drier and brighter here. Going deeper into August, high pressure looks to become more influential in Central Europe again, which will push the low pressure near the UK even further north. While northern areas are still expected to remain unsettled and stormy at times, the South will turn mostly dry and bright, with temperatures climbing to a bit above average.

There currently aren't any strong signals for prolonged heat in either the UK or Central Europe through mid-August, but there is risk that another heat wave could develop with high pressure building into the Continent. Low pressure near the UK with the jet stream overhead will tend to mean any heat waves that do form will remain south of the UK, with just a chance for a brief hot spell or two lasting only a few days. There also isn't any strong signal for a remarkably wet or cold August either. The weather is expected to remain quite changeable with temperatures tending to linger near average with only brief deviations.

Further ahead

Taking a closer look at the first half of August, we will see if things look any better for a drier and sunnier summer to appear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cooler by the weekend, but more warm weather ahead

_________________________________

Wednesday 24 July – Sunday 28 July

Hot today and tomorrow but cooler by the weekend

The current very warm or hot weather is expected to continue today and on Thursday, with some parts of the country likely to see record-breaking temperatures. There will be a lot of sunshine too, but some places will see some heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms affected the UK last night, these storms expected to clear away to the north and north-east during today.
The continuing hot weather is likely to spark off a few more thundery showers tomorrow, most likely across western and northern parts of the UK. Friday should see cooler conditions for most of the UK, although temperatures will still be a little above normal in many areas and the very warm, humid air could linger across the far south-east of England for much of the day.

There will be the chance of some showers too, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected. The weekend is a little bit more unsettled. A front is likely to linger close to or over eastern counties of England and over Scotland bringing a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain here. There is a slight chance that this front may drift further out into the North Sea, but for now we expect there to be some wet weather in Central, northern and eastern parts of the country on Saturday. South West England, Wales and Northern Ireland should be dry and sunny. Sunday will see a mix of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures should be near normal for the time of year.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 4 August

A little more unsettled but still warm for many

Low pressure is expected to sit close to the west of the UK for much of next week. As a result, the weather is looking changeable with some northern and western parts of the country a little wetter than normal due to showers and longer spells of rain. The same areas are also likely to be windier than normal for the time of year, although we don't currently expect any very windy days.
Central, southern and eastern areas may see some showers or perhaps even some thunderstorms, but over the week as a whole it is likely to be drier than normal in these areas, this mainly due to the proximity of high pressure.

Winds will tend to be from the south next week, drawing continental air across some parts of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in many parts of the country, although not to the scale we are seeing this week. Only Northern Ireland is expected to see temperatures near normal. The main alternative to our expected weather is for low pressure to move further eastwards across the UK. This would mean that the south and east also sees some wetter and windier conditions and won't be quite as warm.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 18 August

Some wet weather possible, but drier mid-month

There is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast for the first full week of August. The most likely case is that high pressure centered over Scandinavia will extend towards the UK, bringing dry and calm weather to northern parts of the country. At the same time, low pressure systems moving into France and then southern Europe are likely to bring spells of wetter and breezy or windy weather to the south of the UK at times. However, temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal in all areas of the UK.

There is the chance of more widespread low pressure systems at this time, which would bring unsettled weather to more of the country. Confidence increases a little as we head towards the middle of August. It is most likely that we will see high pressure becoming more dominant, so drier and calmer weather is likely for most areas - although Scotland could become a little wetter and windier then. There are indications that temperatures will lift further above normal in the south of the UK. Whether this is an early sign of another heatwave is uncertain, but a spell of very warm weather can't be ruled out at this stage.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the dry and warm weather in August, and see whether another heat-wave looks any more likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Much cooler
• Rain at times to end July
• Warmer spells in August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/26/john-hammond-month-ahead-normality-returns/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

[knocker]

The Met Office team on a south Atlantic island reveal the extreme lengths they go to in order to forecast the weather

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/26/rainfall-rocketed-remote-weathermen-charting-climate-crisis

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet this weekend. Dry and warm at times in August

_________________________________

Saturday 27 July – Sunday 4 August

Rain this weekend. Becoming drier next week.

A slow moving front will lie across Scotland, northern and eastern England on Saturday. This will bring a lot of cloud and widespread rain, the rain persistent and heavy in some areas, perhaps turning locally thundery. Southern and southwestern England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to remain largely dry with sunny spells, and only a slight chance of showers. The front will be a little further south and west on Sunday, so the Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland will have a cloudier, wet day. The far south-west of the UK will remain largely dry, and eastern Scotland and north-east England should be a little brighter but with occasional showers.

Temperatures will be near normal for the time of year for most parts of the UK over the weekend. An Atlantic low pressure system could bring a spell of windy and wet weather to south-west and southern England on Monday and to south east England on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the main pattern for next week will see low pressure to the west of the UK, but a ridge of high pressure building across the country. There will be some showers and rain in the north and west of the UK before the ridge of high pressure arrives, but the second half of the week should be drier than the first. Temperatures will be near normal, perhaps lifting above later in the week as high pressure arrives.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 11 August

Becoming unsettled and wetter than normal for some

After the relatively dry end to the previous week, the first full week of August looks likely to bring us more unsettled weather. The ridge of high pressure sitting across the UK is expected to drift eastwards into Europe, with Atlantic low pressure expected to move in from the west to bring spells of wet weather to many parts of the UK. It looks wetter than average for the time of year in many areas, which may be good news for some areas of the country which have been having a relatively dry summer so far.

Temperatures are likely to be a little above normal at first but will drop the near normal as the weather becomes more unsettled. There will be a chance of some windy days too. Whilst unsettled weather looks more likely than calmer weather, there is a chance that we could see high pressure clinging on. This would mean drier, less windy and slightly warmer weather, in a pattern similar to that at the start of July i.e. high pressure over the UK on a number of days with low pressure off towards Scandinavia.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 25 August

Tending to become drier and warmer in most areas.

The middle and end of August is likely to see high pressure becoming more of a feature across France and Central Europe, with the high pressure extending across the UK at times. This gives us a higher chance of seeing dry weather and could also help temperatures to rise above normal. Atlantic low pressure systems are expected to continue to track close to the north and north-west of the UK at times, so it is not expected to be completely dry with spells of showery or rainy weather likely.

Scotland could see rainfall remaining above average and it most likely to see temperatures near normal, whilst the rest of the country looks drier than normal, less windy than normal and a bit warmer too. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for low pressure to remain the main feature across the UK, with temperatures remaining near normal, some windy days and with rainfall near or above normal in most areas. It is probably worth noting that there is a small - perhaps just a 1 in 10 - chance of another spell of very warm weather developing if high pressure is stronger across the UK.

Further ahead

The weather looks fairly changeable over August as a whole, but we'll take another look at the chances of dry and very warm weather later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/