Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

After a very dry and warm April, rain returns in May

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Saturday 18 April – Sunday 26 April

Mostly dry and sunny with some warm days

Showers on Friday night across the southern half of the UK will continue on Saturday, whilst the northern half of the UK will stay dry with some sunshine. Showers should fade by Saturday night, to leave it dry and warm for almost the entirety of the UK on Sunday, with plenty of sunshine in the north and east. The exception will be for Northern Ireland, southwest England and the Channel Islands, where there will be more cloud and the odd shower. It will be a similar picture through the first half of the working week, with largely dry and mostly sunny conditions across the UK, apart from a few showers for the Channel Islands and the far southwest of England.

It will be warm, but there will be a fresh easterly breeze, making it feel somewhat cooler for North Sea coasts. The rest of the week should remain dry across the majority of the UK, with light winds and periods of sunshine by day. It will be rather warm by day too, particularly on Thursday and Friday, although always cooler for North Sea coastal parts. Relatively cool by night under clear spells. Next weekend looks likely to be cooler everywhere, as we import air from a more northeasterly orientation. There should be lots of dry weather, but there will likely be a few showers moving in from the northeast at times.

Monday 27 April – Sunday 3 May

Dry and cool for a time, but rain returns in May

The cooler northeasterly flow in place at the end of the previous week will likely hang around for a few days more. This will give some cool days, particularly for North Sea coasts under the influence of a northeasterly breeze. There will be showers tracking in from the northeast at times too, whilst Northern Ireland and western parts of Britain will likely be driest. Then, around the turn of the month, we expect to see a shift in the weather. Low pressure tracks will begin to creep in from the west, bringing with it some spells of rain and windy conditions at times.
With such a dry month through April, the change to a wetter theme will be welcome news for gardeners and farmers.

After a cold start to the week, temperatures should start to trend closer to the seasonal average, although temperatures will likely fluctuate as fronts come and go. Confidence is fairly high for this shift in the weather to occur in early May. However, there is a slight chance that high pressure will linger for longer than expected, allowing the dry and cool weather to stick around for longer. This scenario seems most feasible for the northeast of the UK.

Monday 4 May – Sunday 17 May

Further spells of wet weather possible

Low pressure systems are expected to continue to influence our weather throughout early- and mid-May, giving changeable conditions. There will likely be spells of wet and windy weather, but it is not expected to be a complete wash-out, with dry and calm periods too. In fact, there are some indications that high pressure could become extensive over the UK once again, which could bring with it some dry, calm and warm weather. This outcome seems most likely for the southeast of the UK.

However, the more likely scenario is that low pressure remains a dominating feature through the middle part of May, with wetter and windier weather for the northern half of the UK compared to normal for this time of year. Warm fronts will bring milder air into Europe, but this will probably struggle to reach into the UK except for perhaps one or two brief warmer days. For the north of the country, temperatures may generally trend a little below normal.

Further ahead

We will have a closer look at the forecast for the latter half of May, and take a closer look at how much rain we might expect as we head deeper into spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

After a warm & very dry April, rain returns in May

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Wednesday 22 April – Sunday 26 April

Mostly dry and sunny. Warm for a time.

Much of the UK will remain dry and sunny through Wednesday and Thursday. It will become warmer too with easterly winds easing. On Thursday, temperatures are likely to approach 20 Celsius over some northern parts of the UK while reaching the mid-20s Celsius in parts of the south. However, North Sea coasts will remain much cooler with an onshore breeze.
Friday and Saturday also look set to be mainly dry and sunny with gentle winds.

However, there could be a little early mist or fog in rural valleys. It will still be quite warm away from eastern coasts, with temperatures mostly above the seasonal average. However, by Sunday, a northerly breeze looks set to develop. The northern half of the UK is therefore likely to become cloudier at times on Sunday and cooler with the chance of showers for northern Scotland. The southern half of the UK staying dry with periods of sunshine.

Monday 27 April – Sunday 3 May

Dry and cool at first, then turning wetter.

The first half of next week will be rather cool with north or north-westerly winds predominating. However, high pressure should still be near to the UK, bringing a lot of dry and settled weather. Later next week, we are likely to see the return of low pressure from the west.

Therefore, it looks like turning breezier and wetter for the start of the new month. Wettest conditions are favoured to develop over Northern Ireland and western Scotland with the potential for prolonged outbreaks of rain there. Other parts of the UK are likely to have some rain at times before the end of the week. Overall, less warm compared to this week with temperatures staying nearer the seasonal average.

Monday 4 May – Sunday 17 May

Wetter and breezier than recently

Wetter and breezier than recently through early to mid-May. Low pressure areas are likely to approach from the northeast Atlantic at times, bringing showers and some longer outbreaks of rain. It currently looks as though the rainfall will be most frequent over western and northern parts of the UK. Here, rainfall totals are likely to be above average. Central and eastern parts of England, which have been very dry recently, should see nearer-normal rainfall through the first half of May.

However, there should also be some drier and brighter days as well. Temperatures are likely to alternate around the seasonal average. There is a chance that low pressure areas remain further away to the west than currently expected, which would bring lengthier periods of dry weather for many. However, at the moment, it looks like turning wetter with at least some useful rainfall for gardens.

Further ahead

We will take a look at whether the expected change to wetter conditions could last into late May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed month of weather - wetter than April

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Monday 4 May – Sunday 10 May

Turning drier and warmer for time

After an often dry and sunny April, cooler and much more showery weather has returned in recent days. This weekend, much of the UK will see fewer showers than in recent days. Many areas will have some bright or sunny intervals. However, a few showers will remain in Scotland and eastern and northeast England. Through Saturday night and Sunday, thicker cloud may bring patchy rain to the far southwest of England as well. Temperatures will be mostly near to the seasonal average this weekend albeit still with rather cold nights in Scotland where a patchy frost is possible.

Early next week, we will see a battleground between high pressure to the north of the UK and a low pressure to the southwest. It looks like the low pressure area will bring breezier conditions to the south with rain for a time. However, the northern half of the UK should stay mostly dry. From around Wednesday to Friday next week, it looks as though high pressure will become the dominant feature. Therefore, much of the UK will become dry and warmer with periods of sunshine and easing winds. Temperatures should climb into the low 20s Celsius in places. By the weekend of 9th and 10th May, temperatures are expected to fall closer to average as cooler air spreads from the northeast. However, there should continue to be a lot of dry weather until the end of the week.

Monday 11 May – Sunday 17 May

Turning breezier, chillier and showery

As we head into the middle part of the month, we are likely to see another change in the weather pattern. High pressure looks like moving further away to the northwest and this should open the door to chillier north or north-easterly winds. Much of the UK can expect a generally cooler and breezier week with showers. It may be cold enough for occasional snow showers over the hills and mountains of Scotland. One or two night frosts are favoured too where skies clear during the nights, albeit most likely over the northern half of the UK. There is a chance that high pressure could return later in the week, which would bring drier and calmer conditions again. However, most likely is for a generally cooler and more showery week.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 31 May

Rain giving way to a drier and warmer weather

The second half of May is likely to continue seeing a highly variable pattern of weather. Indications are for wet and windy weather at times in the third week of May. However, temperatures should return nearer the average as the northerly winds ease, perhaps giving way to milder south-westerly winds instead. By the last week of May, there are indications for a change to drier and calmer conditions again.

It looks like high pressure may become much more dominant across the country, bringing more settled weather. In the sunshine, it should become rather warm. However, under any clear skies, the nights can still be quite chilly at times in May. There is low confidence regarding the details of the forecast in the second half of the month. However, it appears likely we are in for a much more variable month of weather compared to April.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if we can still expect a return to some spring sunshine later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm at times but occasionally showery

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Wednesday 6 May – Sunday 10 May

Dry and warm for a time, then colder

Turning warmer through the remainder of the working week. As high pressure moves to the east of the UK, this will push warmer air in from the near-continent. Many areas will also have periods of sunshine through the coming days. However, there will be occasional showers for western and northern parts of the UK, possibly locally thundery. However, by Saturday, a cold front will approach from the north, heralding a change in the weather. The southern half of the UK should still be rather warm on Saturday with spells of sunshine. However, a few sharp showers look like developing through the afternoon.

Further north, the cold front will bring cloudier skies, cooler conditions and showery rain. By the end of the week we should see colder weather surging southwards across the UK. Temperatures are likely to fall from around 5 to 8C above average on Friday to nearer 5C below average by Sunday. A brisk north-easterly wind is likely to develop on Sunday, too, adding to the chill. Arctic air is also likely to bring scattered wintry showers to some north-eastern parts of the UK. There could be a dusting of snow even to low levels in northern Scotland early on Sunday morning.

Monday 11 May – Sunday 17 May

Breezy and cold at first, then calmer and dry

The second full week of May is likely to be rather cold at first with north or north-easterly winds. These winds are likely to bring showers near to north-facing coasts. Further inland and over southern areas of the UK, it should be largely dry but feeling cold in a brisk wind. By the middle part of the week, we expect high pressure to topple in from the northwest.

This area of high pressure should bring mostly dry and calmer conditions. Temperatures are likely to return nearer to the seasonal average. It should feel warmer with lighter winds for most. There is a risk that wetter and breezier weather spreads from the Atlantic into western and northern areas late in the week. However, many areas are favoured to hold onto drier and calmer conditions.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 31 May

Showery at times but turning warmer

The second half of May is likely to continue seeing a variable pattern of weather. In the third week of May, indications are for wetter and windier weather to develop in the northwest of the UK. Further south and east across the UK, rainfall is likely to be much more variable with hit and miss showers. Winds look like starting to develop from the south or south-west, so it should become a little warmer. By the last week of May, current indications are for a warmer and calmer pattern of weather quite widely over the UK.

However, it does not look like being completely dry. The warmth could spark a few heavy showers or thunderstorms in places amongst some decent drier and sunnier periods of weather. There is a risk, though, that fronts manage to push-in from the Atlantic. If this happens, it would end up being more frequently wet and also less warm.

Further ahead

Next Update: May looks like seeing a mixture of weather albeit with some warmth at times. Will this mixed pattern continue into the start of June? We will take a look.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm at times but occasionally showery

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Saturday 9 May – Sunday 17 May

Breezy and cold for a time. Warmer later

This weekend will see a dramatic change in our weather as a cold front sweeps southwards across the UK. Saturday will be another warm day over England and Wales with periods of sunshine but a few locally sharp afternoon showers. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see rain and cooler conditions approaching from the north. After the clearance of a cold front, Sunday then looks set to be breezier and much chillier with brisk north-easterly winds. Temperatures will be up to 12 or 13C lower than Saturday's in some central and southern parts of Britain. Northern Scotland will even see a scattering of snow showers.

Next week will be rather cold at first with northerly winds. These winds are likely to bring showers near northern and eastern coasts. Further inland and over southern and western areas of the UK, it should be largely dry but feeling cold in a brisk wind. A touch of frost in places during the nights. By the middle part of the week, we expect high pressure to topple in from the northwest. This area of high pressure should bring mostly dry and calmer conditions. Temperatures are likely to return nearer to the seasonal average. It should feel warmer with lighter winds for most, but winds will freshen again in the south. It looks like remaining mainly dry, but just the chance of a few showers in the south for a time around the end of the week.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 24 May

Wetter and breezier in the west

We are likely to see a change in the weather pattern for a time after mid-month. High pressure looks like giving way to lower pressure from the west. Western areas of the UK are likely to become breezier and wetter with showers or some longer outbreaks of rain. Eastern parts of the UK could see fronts from the west bring occasional showery rain. However, there should also be decent periods of drier and brighter weather here.

Winds are likely to turn around to a mostly south or south-westerly direction. Therefore, temperatures are favoured to rise a little above average. The southeast could even see a few much warmer days. Currently there is some uncertainty over the extent of any showery rain. There are chances that high pressure stays more dominant, which would mean a drier and calmer week for most.

Monday 25 May – Sunday 7 June

Generally warm but occasionally showery

Indications for the closing week of May and start of June are for often rather warm weather to prevail with winds mainly from the south or east. High pressure looks like being mostly to the east or northeast of the UK. Therefore, eastern and northern areas of the UK should also experience a lot of dry weather. However, occasionally, North Sea coasts could be more suspectable to cooler conditions with some low cloud or mist.

Occasionally, we can expect showers too. The focus of any showers is most likely to be over southern and western areas of the UK. The showers could be occasionally thundery. However, even here, there should also be some decent periods of drier and settled weather. There is a risk, though, that high pressure stays further away than expected, which would mean more widespread and frequent showery weather.

Further ahead

Next Update: We will take another look to see whether we can still expect a return to warmth later in May and for the start of June.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Summers over etc according to the Daily Star

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Some very warm days mixed with showers, thundery

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Wednesday 13 May – Sunday 17 May

Colder air will head east. Staying dry and sunny.

For the rest of this working week, we will likely see the late-season cold snap from the first half of the week begin to moderate. High pressure will slowly shift nearer to us from the northwest, and by Friday this should cut off the northerly winds and colder airflow. Temperatures should then return to near normal as we head into the weekend.

High pressure is generally controlling the weather for the country this week and weekend and this will tend to keep things dry and mostly sunny. The main exception to this is northern Scotland, including the Western Isles and Northern Isles. Here some weak fronts will be able to creep in from the west and keep things cloudy with occasional patches of rain.

Occasionally, especially Friday night and perhaps again on Sunday, rain will reach as far south as the Central Belt and Northern Ireland. Further south it will stay dry for most, but the odd afternoon shower is possible for parts of the westernmost counties at times.

Confidence is high overall, but a bit lower on the exact temperatures we can expect this weekend. This should generally be near or a bit above average, but it is possible we might cling on to the colder air for a day or two longer.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 24 May

Wetter and breezier in the west

As we head into next week, high pressure will continue to be the dominant weather feature for the UK. However, instead of being northwest of the country, it will tend to be to the south and perhaps southeast. This will allow some milder air to feed in from the sub-tropical Atlantic, and temperatures are likely to trend well above average. This will be felt most in the southern half of the country, as Scotland and Northern Ireland will tend to be cloudier more frequently from nearby weak fronts. It will be drier though with rain struggling to even get to northern Scotland.

As the high shifts to the southeast, there will be a chance that we might get some short-lived pulses of southerly winds that will bring some very warm but thundery days. This will be more likely later in the week.

Confidence is generally high this week, but as before, the exact temperatures are still a bit elusive. It is highly likely we will be above average, but by how much is less certain. There are not signals for any prolonged cold outbreaks like we saw early this week.

Monday 25 May – Sunday 7 June

Generally warm but occasionally showery

For the rest of May and first week of June, high pressure will continue to be the main weather feature. The high will often be to the southeast of us, so like before we expect some warm air to feed in from the southwest and keep temperatures above average with some sunny, calm days.

Heading into June there are stronger signals today that high pressure will tend to shift to the east. This is more favourable for some plumes of very warm air to come in from the south. These plumes tend to be humid, very warm or hot, and bring some widespread heavy showers or thunderstorms. These will be most likely in the southern half of the country but can reach everyone eventually.

However, the major caveat to this forecast is that these plumes can be very fickle, and if they miss the UK by staying in France or the Low Countries the weather story will be very different. In general, it will likely be a warm start to meteorological summer with plenty of dry, sunny days. A few humid, very warm and thundery days will likely be mixed in here and there as well.

Further ahead

Just how warm will we get in late May and early June and how much should we expect some late-spring/early-summer heat and thunder?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very warm days possible but risk of thunderstorms

 

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Saturday 16 May – Sunday 24 May

Warm and sunny; wetter and breezier in the north

This past week has been colder than normal for the time of year, with overnight frosts across the country - something quite unusual for mid-May. The colder conditions were the result of high pressure out to the west of the British Isles, forcing cold arctic air to sink down from the north. This weekend will see the high pressure squeeze further south, and this slight change in orientation will allow a slightly warmer air mass to start to fill in overhead. Under the influence of high pressure, southern and central areas will be dry this weekend, although it will be rather cloudy. However, further north, fronts will push in from the west and give rain and brisk winds to Northern Ireland and Scotland. Rain will be rather persistent across northern and western Scotland on Sunday and into Monday.

Through the first half of the week, high pressure will gradually shift eastwards, and this will allow warmer air to build in from the south. It will be mainly dry with sunshine for many, although Scotland and Northern Ireland can expect more cloud and some showers. Temperatures will likely peak on Wednesday or Thursday, with highs quite widely into the low 20s Celsius, but into the mid-20s Celsius across central and southern England. There is then some uncertainty for Thursday onwards. There is a risk that low pressure systems and their associated fronts will track in from the Atlantic Ocean and turn our weather wetter, windier and cooler as we head towards the end of the week and into next weekend. However, high pressure may be stubborn enough to block these low pressure systems from reaching our shores, which would allow the drier, sunnier and warmer conditions from earlier in the week to persist.

Monday 25 May – Sunday 31 May

High pressure re-developing, turning dry again

The final week of May could start on a wet, windy and cool note, as low pressure systems continue to develop over the Atlantic and head in our direction. However, by the middle of the week, these low pressure systems should become less of a feature over the Atlantic Ocean. Instead, high pressure should begin to re-develop over the Atlantic and extend across the British Isles. This should result in a dry and calm second half of the week and following weekend. It should be warm too, although there will likely be variable amounts of cloud, with the best of any sunshine to the southeast of the country.

Uncertainties around the positioning and timing of high pressure building over the Atlantic presents some risks to the forecast. There is a chance that high pressure will be slower to build into the UK which will allow further fronts to extend in. This is most likely for northern and western parts of the UK.
Overall, though, the final week of May is likely to turn increasing dry and calm. This will cap off an extremely dry spring across the UK, and the lack of any extended periods of wet weather will be unwelcome news for gardeners, farmers and growers.

Monday 1 June – Sunday 14 June

Very warm spells but occasionally showery

The start of June heralds the start of meteorological summer, and the sun's strength over the northern hemisphere will continue to build. For the end of May, high pressure is expected to be over, or near, to the UK, but into June, it is expected that high pressure will tend to gradually shift eastwards. As high pressure takes hold over central and northern Europe, low pressure systems are expected to develop over southwest Europe. This set up would result in plumes of warm air sweeping up from the south across the UK. Periods of very warm weather look possible, but this kind of air mass also presents a chance of showers developing on our shores. Any showers could be heavy and thundery.

However, this scenario of very warm air and thunderstorms is quite a specific weather set-up, and so the number of showery days are likely to be limited. In fact, these plumes of warm and potentially showery weather could miss the UK and be confined to France or the Low Countries instead. Overall though, it will likely be a warm start to meteorological summer with plenty of dry, sunny days. A few humid, very warm, and thundery days will likely be mixed in here and there as well.

Further ahead

Just how warm will we get in late May and early June and can we expect some late-spring/early-summer heat and thunder?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often warm and dry but turning more showery later

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Wednesday 20 May – Sunday 24 May

Warm at first, then cooler, breezy and showery

On Wednesday and Thursday, much of the UK will be warm with periods of sunshine and only gentle winds. However, there is the risk of a few heavy, thundery showers on Thursday afternoon, particularly in the southeast.

A cold front will then race in from the Atlantic, bringing a spell of rain and a downturn in temperatures for Friday. The rain will be followed by a mixture of sunshine and blustery showers in the west. The northwest will have strong winds.

This weekend, much of the UK will be breezy and showery for a time albeit with spells of sunshine. However, on Sunday, the showers look like becoming more confined to north-western parts of the UK. Central, southern and eastern areas should become largely dry and less breezy as high pressure starts to extend from the south.

Monday 25 May – Sunday 31 May

Often dry and rather warm

Next week is likely to see an area of high pressure dominating the weather. Therefore, much of the UK is likely to be often dry with gentle winds. Temperatures are likely to alternate between near and above the average, so it should be warm at times

Occasionally, the high pressure area looks like moving further away to the west. This should allow occasional weak fronts to push south-eastwards across the UK, bringing a little patchy rain. However, overall, rainfall amounts are likely to remain below the seasonal average.

Therefore, the last week of May is likely to wrap up what has been an extremely dry spring across the UK. The lack of any extended periods of wet weather will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.

Monday 1 June – Thursday 4 June

Warm but turning more showery at times

The start of June marks the beginning of the meteorological summer with the strength of the sun still building. For the first half of June, it still looks as though high pressure will be often near to the UK. Therefore, we can expect strong and warm sunshine at times. One or two very warm days are favoured with warmth spreading from the near-continent at times.

However, it looks as though high pressure areas will gradually move a little further north and east. Over England and Wales, this should occasionally allow showery weather to spread from the south. In any warmer weather, we could even see one or two thunderstorms. Further north, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, there is a greater likelihood of drier than average conditions persisting. The main uncertainty regarding the forecast is exactly where the high pressure will become centred. There are chances that the high stays over the UK. This would lead to a continuation of the unusually dry and settled weather we have been experiencing.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the June forecast. Can we expect any useful rain? Or could we be looking at the start of a drought for some?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Western Australia prepares for 'once-in-a-decade' storm

 

Quote

Australia's western coast is being battered by a huge storm, which is heading for the main city of Perth. Torrential rains, strong winds and waves of up to eight metres (26ft) are forecast in some areas. The severe weather is the result of the remnants of tropical cyclone Mangga interacting with a cold front, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. A senior official in Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) said it would be a "once-in-a-decade" storm. "Normally our storms come from the south west and this will come from the north west," DFES acting assistant commissioner Jon Broomhall told journalists.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52787152

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often warm and dry but turning more showery later

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Saturday 23 May – Sunday 31 May

Windy and wet in the north, then drier and warmer

This weekend begins on an unseasonably wet and windy note in the north - the result of a deep area of low pressure tracking just to the north of Scotland. With trees in full-leaf, strong winds across northwest Scotland on Saturday presents a risk of disruption to travel and services. Northwest Scotland will also see very high rainfall totals this weekend, with showers and longer spells of heavy rain throughout Saturday and into Sunday.

Meanwhile, further south, Sunday will turn increasingly fine, with winds easing and some sunshine later in the day. This heralds the quick return of high pressure from the southwest, and high pressure will largely be in charge for much of this week. England and Wales can expect some dry and sunny days, and temperatures will climb into the mid-20s Celsius once more. Whilst Northern Ireland and Scotland will also see some dry and warm days this week, areas of cloud and rain look set to move in from the west at times.

There is a chance that rain could also reach further south and east later this week, but it seems more likely that high pressure will block any spells of wet weather reaching into England and Wales. With much of the southeast of England recording little to no rainfall so far this spring, the lack of any extended periods of wet weather will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.

Monday 1 June – Sunday 7 June

Chance of rain in the north, otherwise dry

The start of June marks the beginning of the meteorological summer, and the strength of the sun will continue to build ahead of the longest day of the year later in the month.

High pressure is expected to build across the North Atlantic Ocean and extend eastwards into the British Isles for much of this week, bringing plenty of dry and fine weather. However, low pressure still expected to the north of the UK, across Iceland and Scandinavia, and will may threaten the north of the UK with rain and breezier conditions at times. That said, any rain is unlikely to be very prolonged or widespread, and rain may stay entirely confined to more northern parts of the UK.

There is some uncertainty surrounding the temperatures for the week. A northwesterly flow may be in place earlier in the week, which would allow cooler air mass to feed in, bringing a few days of temperatures below the seasonal average. This is unlikely to be anything unbenign though, and it will likely trend warmer later in the week, as high pressure continues to build overhead. There is even a chance later in the week that a more southerly flow will develop over the British Isles, and give some very warm days.

Monday 8 June – Sunday 21 June

Warm but turning more showery at times

Heading into mid-June, it still looks as though high pressure will often be near to the UK. As a result, we can expect strong and warm sunshine at times. With warmth spreading in from the near-continent at times, some very warm days seem likely. However, it looks as though high pressure areas will gradually move a little further north and east. Over England and Wales, this should occasionally allow showery weather to spread in from the south. In any warmer and humid weather, we could even see some thunderstorms. Further north, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, there is a greater likelihood of drier than average conditions persisting.

The main uncertainty regarding this period is exactly where the high pressure will become centred. There are chances that the high stays directly over the UK and this would lead to a continuation of the unusually dry and settled weather we have been experiencing throughout spring. After such a dry few months, this scenario would lead to extremely dry soils and pastures across the country.

Further ahead

We will have a closer look at the potentially very warm conditions possible in mid-June, and discuss whether we can expect any meaningful rainfall throughout the next month. Could we be looking at the start of a drought for some?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

June will be dry and warm after a brief cool spell

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Saturday 30 May – Sunday 7 June

Dry and warm at first, then wetter, cooler

This weekend will see a continuation of the dry, sunny, and warm weather across the UK that has lasted all week. However, as we head into the first week of June, the weather pattern is likely to change for a while. On Monday and Tuesday, a weak cold front will try and reach into Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing some cooler air, cloudier skies, and some patches of rain. Further south and east it will stay dry, mostly sunny, and warmer than normal, although sunshine will become a bit hazy. High pressure is expected to amplify in the Atlantic through the working week, and this will help deepen an area of low pressure over Scandinavia. The result for the UK will be a development of a cold front and a strong northerly wind that will push in from the north starting Thursday.

Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England will see some outbreaks of rain and cooler, windier weather on Thursday, but further south it will stay relatively calm and warm. The delay in the front on Thursday will bring a risk of a few thunderstorms for the far south of England as they drift across the Channel from France. By Friday and into the weekend, however, the cold front will sweep into Central Europe and bring cooler, windier weather for the whole country. Some strong wind gusts are possible on northern and eastern coasts, and while this weekend we will see temperatures widely in the mid-twenties, by next Saturday we may struggle to get above 15C!

Monday 8 June – Sunday 14 June

Risk of showers in the west, turning dry and fine

The cool, wet spell from the first week of June will continue for a time into the second week, so some showers, brisk northerly winds, and chilly nights are likely. This is unlikely to last for too long though, and by the end of the working week we expect high pressure to build back in from the west and bring drier, warmer, and sunnier weather, especially in the Southwest. However, this does come with a rather large caveat: the exact timing of the high pressure system's arrival. We expect it around midweek, making the second week of June a bit of a week of two halves.

Shower, breezy, and cool to start with the second half being warmer than normal, dry, and sunny. There is a risk that the high is delayed in the arrival and the bulk of the week ends up on the cooler side of average with plenty of showers. But, at the moment, this is just a risk and not the preferred scenario. Confidence is medium mainly due to uncertainty on the day-to-day specifics of when the high builds in. We have high confidence that the high will build in at some point.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 28 June

Mostly dry and warm, particularly for the south

Once the high pressure ridge builds in from the Atlantic, it will likely stick around for most of the rest of June and give us some similar weather to what we've just seen through May.
Most of the UK will be sunny, warmer than normal, and dry for much of the second half of June. Scotland will be the main exception here and may well see a few outbreaks of rain at times from very weak fronts. The main risk to this scenario is that high pressure instead builds strongly to our north and northwest, perhaps near Greenland and Iceland.

This would let low pressure systems near Spain and Portugal move into the UK from the south and bring some thundery downpours. This would, however, also bring in some hot Mediterranean air, so it would still be a warmer than normal pattern. As such, confidence is a bit higher for a warmer than normal June, but medium on the dryness and sunshine. Sunnier summer months will see a sharp increase in the UV levels across the UK as we head into June, but the drier weather may help reduce pollen levels a bit.

Further ahead

Will June continue on much as May did after a briefly cool start to summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Hotspur62]

Good to see news 24 on bbc were on the ball.Just watched the forecast at 6.56pm and saw Louise present the weather and it showed Friday night and then gave forecast for Saturday and Sunday.Pretty poor from A National broadcaster showing a forecast from yesterday!!

[seaside 60]

Reading back over the BBC Monthly for May makes you wonder why we search for longer term forecasts.

They were so so wrong even as it was almost on top of us.

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

June warmer than normal after an early cool spell

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 June – Sunday 7 June

Pattern shift to a cool, wet end of the week

From Wednesday and for the rest of the week the UK will see a pattern shift that will bring some very different weather for everyone compared to that seen through April and May.

High pressure is expected to amplify in the Atlantic into the weekend, extending north nearer to Greenland and Iceland. This will help deepen an area of low pressure over Scandinavia and the North Sea. As a result, an unseasonably strong, cool northerly wind will develop for the UK and push a cold front south across the country on Wednesday. Western areas will see some outbreaks of rain and sharp showers on Wednesday, with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. However, further east it will stay a bit drier but still turning cool by Thursday.

By Friday and into the weekend, however, the cold front will sweep into Central Europe and bring cooler, windier weather for the whole country. Some strong wind gusts are possible on northern and western coasts. Low pressure in the North Sea is likely to drift nearer on Saturday and Sunday, bringing some much wetter weather. After a warm, sunny, and dry week for most of the country, Saturday will be quite a change with a windy, wet, and cool day.

Monday 8 June – Sunday 14 June

A bit warmer and drier, showers in the south

The cool, wet spell from the first week of June will continue for a time into the second week, so showers, brisk northerly winds, and chilly nights are likely. This is not expected to last for the entire week, however, and by the end of the working week and into the weekend we expect the low pressure systems to drift south into Spain. This will allow pressure to begin to rise over the UK and bring some more settled weather for the northern half of the country. This will also allow some warmer southerly winds into southern areas, but also a few heavy or even thundery showers, especially by the weekend.

However, this does come with a rather large caveat: the exact timing of the low pressure system's departure. We expect it around midweek, making the second week of June a bit of a week of two halves. Shower, breezy, and cool to start with the second half being warmer than normal, dry, and sunny.

There is a risk that the ridge of high pressure is delayed in the arrival and the bulk of the week ends up on the cooler side of average with plenty of showers as low pressure systems move in from the northwest. But, at the moment, this is just a risk and not the preferred scenario. Confidence is medium mainly due to uncertainty on the timing of the pattern change, which will have a big impact on the expected weather. We have high confidence that the high will build in at some point and is likely to be in place by the weekend.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 28 June

Mostly dry and warm, particularly for the south

Once the high pressure ridge builds in from the Atlantic, it is likely to stick around for most of the rest of June and give us some similar weather to that just seen through May. Most of the UK will be sunny, warmer than normal, and dry for much of the second half of June.

However, we do expect that June will tend to be a slightly more changeable month than May or April were, so some brief wet, cool spells are possible, although these should last for more than a day or two. Scotland will be the main exception here and may well see more frequent outbreaks of rain from weak fronts.

The main risk to this scenario is that high pressure instead builds strongly to our north and northwest, perhaps near Greenland and Iceland like it is doing at the moment. This would let low pressure systems near Spain and Portugal move into the UK from the south and bring some thundery downpours. This would, however, also bring in some hot Mediterranean air, so it would still be a warmer than normal pattern. As such, confidence is a bit higher for a warmer than normal June, but low on the dryness and sunshine.

Sunnier summer months will see a sharp increase in the UV levels across the UK as we head into June as well.

Further ahead

June dryness is still shrouded in the fog on uncertainty, but next week we should be able to examine the second half of the month in greater detail.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

June warmer than normal after an early cool spell

_________________________________

Saturday 6 June – Sunday 14 June

Cool and windy this weekend; some improvement next

This weekend will be a lot cooler, windier and wetter than it was a week ago. This is chiefly down to an unseasonably deep area of low pressure which developed over the North Sea on Friday. This low pressure system will remain close to the country through Saturday and will bring strong winds to many areas, with rain and heavy showers also expected. Temperatures will be below normal for the time of year, and more than 10 degrees Celsius lower than they were just a week or so ago. Sunday will see some improvement in conditions as the low pressure system weakens and moves away, but we still expect strong winds on some North Sea coasts.

There will be rain too, this mainly for eastern counties, whilst other areas could see showers. It will be another cool day. Monday and Tuesday should see a continuation of this improving trend. A weak ridge of high pressure should bring largely dry weather to the country on both days, although some showers are possible locally and rain may move into Scotland and Northern Ireland later. There is a bit of uncertainty over the weather for the middle of next week. Some rain is likely to feature, but quite how much rain and how widespread it'll be is uncertain. The end of the week should see drier but not completely dry weather - that is there is a chance of some rain but it looks less unsettled than mid-week. There are signs that it will warm up by the weekend with temperatures perhaps lifting above normal in some areas.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 21 June

Mostly dry and warm but a chance of thunderstorms

After the changeable weather at the start of June, we should see a spell of more settled weather developing around the middle of the month. High pressure looks likely to become established over northern and north-eastern Europe and this should provide a fairly effective block to weather systems trying to come in from the Atlantic. As a result, most parts of the country will be relatively dry. The most likely exception to this dry picture is the south.

Showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely here and whilst they could drift further north, southern parts of the UK generally look wettest.The other big feature of this weather pattern is that it looks warmer than normal in all areas of the country. This is thanks to the broadly southerly winds we expect to persist for much of the week. The main risk to our expected pattern is that Atlantic low pressure systems manage to push a bit further east, resulting in cooler, wetter and windier weather affecting the UK.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 5 July

Dry and warm to end June; cooler, less settled in

There shouldn't be any major changes to the weather pattern as we move into the last full week of June, as high pressure over northern Europe still looks like the main driving feature of our weather. In fact, there are some signs that this area of high pressure could drift a little further west which, with low pressure in the Atlantic, would tend to promote even warmer weather due to stronger southerly winds. Whilst high pressure should keep things relatively dry, we could still see heavy and thundery showers in some areas.

There could be a pattern change as we move into July. There are signs that the weather will become cooler and more unsettled, although considering that the previous couple of weeks are expected to be dry and warm or very warm that could be somewhat of a relief for some. There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage though and there's a reasonable chance that the settled, dry and warm weather could continue into July.

Further ahead

Whilst June looks dry and warm, will the change to a cooler and more unsettled July still look any more or less likely?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

 UK to be hit with rain, gales and thunderstorms as temperatures drop

Quote

 

Britain is set to be hit by heavy downpours and gales this weekend as temperatures plummet. An "unseasonably deep" low-pressure system is moving south from Scandinavia bringing rain, thunderstorms and strong winds across the country, according to the Met Office. It comes just days after Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged the public not to gather with others indoors as the weather worsens.

Last month's hot weather saw crowds of people flock to beaches and beauty spots across the UK ahead of - and after - lockdown restrictions being eased in England, allowing socially distanced groups of up to six people to meet outside. During the last several weeks, sunseekers basked in highs of 29C (84.2F) as England had its driest May on record and the UK its sunniest calendar month with 266 hours of sunshine - beating June 1957, when there was 265 hours of sun.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/weather-uk-to-be-hit-with-rain-gales-and-thunderstorms-as-temperatures-drop-12001488

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning warm for a time. Cooler again later.

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 June – Sunday 14 June

Wet and windy for a time. Warmer this weekend.

Wednesday to Friday this week looks set to be unsettled for many with showers or longer outbreaks of rain. The rain will be accompanied by a fresh or strong easterly wind on Thursday and Friday, with some strong gusts for the time of year. There should be significant rainfall for areas that have experienced a deficit of rain since the early spring, including eastern and southern areas of the UK.

There is a chance of occasional thunder mixed in with the rain, too. However, northern and western Scotland will tend to become drier and brighter through the next few days. This weekend will become warmer and less windy with spells of sunshine developing for many. However, there are still likely to be scattered showers and a few of these could still be heavy and locally thundery.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 21 June

Warmer and calmer but thundery showers in places

Next week is likely to be warmer than this week with temperatures climbing above the seasonal average quite widely. Winds should generally be lighter than this week, too, and from a variable direction. However, areas of low pressure are likely move near to the west and south of the UK at times, bringing showers.

Some of the showers could be heavy, thundery and slow-moving. However, there should also be some decent periods of drier and sunnier weather as well. Indications are that Scotland will be nearest to high pressure through the week, with fewer showers likely there. Warmest conditions are favoured to be through the middle part of the week. A chance of one or two very warm or hot days then, especially in the south and east.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 5 July

Turning cooler and eventually wetter

Latest indications are for the last full week of June to become less warm. Lower pressure over Scandinavia is likely to cause the winds to blow from a cooler north-westerly direction. There is currently some uncertainty over the timing of this transition (with chances that the warm weather persists for a little longer). However, most likely is that we see temperatures falling nearer to the seasonal average.

Scotland is likely to become wetter with more frequent showers, particularly in the west and north. Meanwhile, England, Wales and Northern Ireland should tend to become somewhat drier with showers easing. Into the first week of July, there are signs of a more significant change in our weather. There are signs of low pressure moving nearer to the UK, bringing generally wetter, breezier and cooler conditions.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if a cooler and wetter change still appears likely for early July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Dorsetbred]

I found this whilst searching this morning, from weatheronline uk, who stated... "Showery, a risk of thunderstorms and feeling warm'
Mixed weather continues through this week. There will be showers on most days and these will be heavy and thundery at times. It should be warm overall and lights will be generally light."

Obvious in one way, not sure how it falls into the week ahead forecast though!

[Summer Sun]

Heavy rain leads to flooding and dangerous driving conditions on Teesside

Quote

Torrential rain overnight has lead to flooding and hazardous driving conditions across Teesside. The Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for heavy rain on Thursday. It said the downpour may bring surface water flooding and affect travel. The warning started at 4pm on Thursday and remains is in place until 2pm Friday.

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/live-weather-traffic-rain-flooding-18406664

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and breezy in the north and west at times

_________________________________

Saturday 13 June – Sunday 21 June

Warm and humid, with showers and thunderstorms.

This weekend will be fairly warm and rather humid, as low pressure over the Bay of Biscay draws in air from the southeast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds, and downpours all possible where thunderstorms do develop. Not everyone will see these showers though, and there should be some sunny spells away from the showers. It will be warm this weekend, with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 20s Celsius quite widely.

There will be a similar theme through the new working week, with mostly warm, humid conditions, and scattered showers developing on most days. Showers will be most frequent in the north and west, and with a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms for these areas too. Generally temperatures will be a little above average for the time of year, and the nights will be quite mild and humid.

Later in the week and into the weekend, high pressure extending in from the southwest of the UK should limit the development of showers for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, leading to dry conditions for many, with some sunshine. However, there will still be a few afternoon showers around, but these should not be widespread, nor frequent.

Later in the weekend, an area of low pressure over the North Atlantic is likely to edge closer to the northwest of the UK. This may introduce some rain for Sunday, being most likely in the north and west of the country. This may also introduce some breezier, cooler conditions to end the weekend. However, at this stage there is some uncertainty on the track of low pressure in from the west, and so there are uncertainties on the details.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June

Wet and breezy in the north and west at times

Low pressure nearby at the end of the previous period will persist into the start of this period, and this will likely result in some wet, breezy and cool conditions for the UK. Spells of rain will be most prevalent in the north and west of the country. Meanwhile, high pressure should build over continental Europe through this week, and so the wet and breezy conditions may struggle to reach into the far southeast of the UK.

With mainly westerly flows over the UK, temperatures will generally be around average, but with cloud and showers frequently affecting the north, temperatures in Scotland may be a little below average on the whole.

The risk to this forecast is that low pressure is more dominant across the entirety of the UK. This would result in the wet and breezy conditions being more widespread across the UK, perhaps with some heavy showers or longer spells of rain.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 12 July

Showers in the north, dry and warm in the south

For the end of June and the start of July, there may well be a battle ground over UK between high pressure and low pressure. Low pressure troughs are expected over Iceland and northern Europe, and these are likely to extending into the UK at times. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to build to the southwest of the UK, extending into western Europe. With low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south and southwest, there may be a north-south split in the weather for the UK.

Northern areas can expect periods of wet, breezy and cool weather, whilst southern areas should be drier, calmer and warmer.

This potential north-south split to the weather is likely to be the general theme through the first half of July. Frequent showers are possible in north and west Scotland, making it wetter than average here. Meanwhile, southeast England may be largely dry. After an exceptionally dry spring for the southeast, long periods of dry weather here will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.

Further ahead

We will take a closer look at the forecast for the end of June, and through to the latter half of July. Will there be any periods of hot weather as we head towards the middle of summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Dorsetbred]

And so we have it....a June Monsoon c/o the Sun this morning...

UK weather forecast – ‘June Monsoon’ to hit Britain with two weeks of thunderstorms and floods – The Sun

WWW.THESUN.CO.UK

---

BRITAIN is set to be hit with a fortnight of thundery downpours and floods as the weekend’s balmy weather fades away. Temperatures are likely to remain high, but we could soon see monsoon-style wet…

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning very warm for a time, but Lows threaten

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 June – Sunday 21 June

Further showers and thunderstorms

The warm, humid and showery conditions will persist through the second half of the working week. On Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorms are expected to develop once again, with southern England, central England, Wales, northwest England and southwest Scotland most likely to see the heaviest and most frequent of the showers. Frequent lightning, hail and heavy downpours are all possible in the these areas, bringing a risk of flash flooding in local spots.

Friday will be another day of showers, but this time the greatest risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be across Scotland. Later on Friday, showers should clear to give a spell of drier, calmer weather for a time, through Friday night and Saturday morning. However, with low pressure out to the northwest of the UK, it looks likely that a front will reach into Northern Ireland on Saturday afternoon, introducing outbreaks of rain and brisk winds. This front will track eastwards through the rest of Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning, bringing outbreaks of rain and breezy conditions for much of the UK.
The rain from this front will likely be heaviest in the north and west of the country, whilst southeast England may just see a spell of light rain. The front should clear on Sunday morning, but it will remain breezy through the rest of the day. Some showers are expected in the north and west of the country, whilst elsewhere it will be dry with some sunshine, particularly later on Sunday.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June

Wet and breezy in the north and west at times

Through early next week, high pressure is expected to reach in from the southwest of the UK. This will bring plenty of dry and warm weather to England and Wales, with sunny periods for many. However, areas of low pressure will continue to persist out to the northwest of the UK, and these will likely give some showers or longer spells of rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland at times, although predominately to northwest Scotland.

Into the middle of next week, high pressure will build across the south of the UK and allow warmth to build in from continental Europe, becoming very warm for Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance of temperatures reaching into the high 20s Celsius in southeast England. There is some uncertainty on how long this hot spell will last across the southeast of the UK, but it seems likely that high pressure will weaken by the weekend, perhaps with showers developing.

As we lose the high pressure, we open the door to areas of low pressure encroaching from the northwest, which could introduce some wetter, breezier and cooler weather. This is most likely in the north and west of the country, whilst the south and east may well keep hold of the dry and warm conditions for a little longer through the weekend.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 12 July

Showers in the north, dry and warm in the south

For the end of June and the start of July, there may well be a battle ground over UK between high pressure and low pressure. Areas of low pressure are expected to be over Iceland and northern Europe, and these are likely to extend into the UK at times. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to the southwest of the UK, extending into western Europe.

With low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south and southwest, there may be a north-south split in the weather for the UK. Northern areas can expect periods of wet, breezy and cool weather, whilst southern areas should be drier, calmer and warmer. This potential north-south split to the weather is likely to be the general theme through the first half of July. Frequent showers are possible in north and west Scotland, making it wetter than average here. Meanwhile, southeast England may turn out mostly dry, with just a few spells of rain.

After an exceptionally dry spring for the southeast, long periods of dry weather here will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers. As we head towards the middle of July, it looks possible that there will be change in the weather pattern overhead. High pressure is expected to build over Europe and into the UK, which would result in increasingly dry, calm and warm conditions to much of the country.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast deeper into July. Could we see dry, calm and warm conditions developing in mid-July and persisting through the rest of the month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Lows dominant into July, but some heat next week

_________________________________

Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June

Turning very warm for most. Hot in the southeast.

This weekend will see the beginning of a shift away from the heavy slow-moving showers that have developed for much of the country this week. Instead, Atlantic weather systems will move in from the west and bring some faster-moving bands of rain and stronger winds. The first weather system will arrive late on Saturday and bring heavy rain and strong winds to western areas overnight and into Sunday morning. As the front heads further east early on Sunday the rain will turn lighter before clearing to the east. A second weather system will follow quickly behind on Sunday night and into Monday.

However, while we see weather fronts here in the UK, central Europe will see a building ridge of high pressure that will continue into next week. By Tuesday it will be large and strong enough to make its presence felt here, and winds will shift to southwest and southerly. This will cause the temperatures to climb, and by midweek most of the UK will be well above average. Some heat is expected in the southeast, while Scotland will be nearer to normal. This will lead to quite a north-south split in the temperatures for a few days.

By the end of the working week and into the weekend, temperatures are likely to slowly moderate to near normal again for the south as winds slowly shift to northwest. Some low pressure systems are expected to return by the weekend and bring some more unsettled weather, and things will become rather cool for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 5 July

Fast-moving fronts keeping it wet, breezy in west

As the heat from next week eases into the end of June, the arrival of low pressure systems will be the start of a more long-term weather pattern shift. Large-scale low pressure troughs are expected to dominate the weather for northern Europe for the first half of July, and these will become more influential as we begin the month. High pressure will be pushed off into the Atlantic which will bring a westerly or northwest flow to the UK throughout the week. This will tend to keep temperatures cooler than late June, with some below normal temperatures for the northern half of the country and near-normal temperatures elsewhere.

This will also maintain the fast-moving weather fronts from the west, so rather than the slow, plodding thundery showers seen recently, we will have bands of rain moving in with clear, dry spells between. An overall unsettled and changeable pattern. As such, our confidence on any day-to-day specifics at this range is on the low side, but we have high confidence on the large-scale weather pattern. Fronts will be more frequent visitors to western and northern areas, especially Scotland and Northern Ireland, and Wales too. Southern and eastern parts of the country will see longer dry spells, but rain will not be a stranger here either.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 19 July

Wetter start to July but a drier second half

Early July will continue with the same large-scale weather pattern as low pressure areas continue to arrive from the west and northwest. This will mean it will continue to be rather changeable and more frequently wet and breezy for northern and western areas. However, this pattern is unlikely to last forever, and as we head into the second half of July, we should begin to see a gradual shift. High pressure is likely to become more influential in eastern Europe and is expected to extend into central Europe and Scandinavia too.

This will push the low pressure troughs into the Atlantic and slightly further away from the UK. What that means for the weather is that fronts will become weaker and slower-moving, and there is a greater risk for some very warm or hot southerly winds, similar to what we will see in late June. So, by the third full week of July we should expect a return of drier, sunnier, but hotter weather for most of the country while the western and northern fringes of Scotland cling on to some wetter weather.

Confidence is a bit lower on the exact timing of this pattern shift, though, as the latest computer models are struggling to pin anything down. In addition, a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic could disrupt things even as far away as Europe! So our long-range confidence this time of year tends to be a bit lower than normal.

Further ahead

With a few more model runs at our disposal we will take a closer look at middle and late July for the timing of the pattern shift and risk of further hot spells.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Showery and cooler to start July, then warmer.

_________________________________

Wednesday 24 June – Sunday 28 June

Thundery breakdown to heat and sunshine

Friday is when we will see the weather pattern begin to change. Hot and muggy air will start to give way to somewhat fresher and showery weather from the west. However, the heat could spark a few lively thunderstorms for a time with local downpours and frequent lightning. This weekend is set to be fresher and breezier with winds from the west or southwest. Many areas will also have showers, some heavy. However, there should also be sunshine at times.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 5 July

Breezy with showers. Feeling fresher

Next week, the weather will have a fresher feel. Winds will be brisk at times and from the west or south-west. The brisk winds will also bring showers to many areas. Fronts are likely to bring occasionally lengthier outbreaks of rain as well. However, there will also be some drier and sunnier interludes. The best of the sunshine is likely to be over eastern and southern areas of England.

Over western and northern parts of the UK, rainfall amounts are likely to be above the seasonal average. However, given the brisk winds, any heavy showers should move through fairly quickly, lowering the risk of any flooding. Temperatures next week are likely to alternate around the seasonal average in England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland are looking cool at times, though, with temperatures slightly below average.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 19 July

Unsettled at first then calmer and warmer

Up until around mid-month, the weather is looking changeable with showers and rain at times. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be near or slightly above average with some drier days mixed-in too. Winds are likely to be often from the west but perhaps occasionally from the north. Therefore, we are unlikely to experience any prolonged hot conditions through the first half of July. Temperatures are favoured to alternate around the seasonal average.

From mid-month, there are signs that high pressure could return, bringing a change to drier and calmer weather during the second half of the month. Under the sunshine and lighter winds, temperatures are likely to climb above average again, with some very warm or even hot days returning.

Further ahead

Will temperatures start to rise again as we go through July?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook