Long Run Of Below Average Months

[cheeky_monkey]

Here in Edmonton i am into the 14th consecutive below average month...not had an above average month since April 2010..whats is the longest run you have seen?

[damianslaw]

Here in Edmonton i am into the 14th consecutive below average month...not had an above average month since April 2010..whats is the longest run you have seen?

I'm surprised last October was below average. I visited Calgary, Banff and Vancouver during the first 3 weeks and it was constantly above average throughout - very much above average. I left Calgary on the 20th in 20 degree sunshine - it felt positively late summer like and all the locals were saying it had been up to that point a particuarly warm October. I think it did become significantly colder towards the end of the month but not enough to cancel the warm first two thirds. I remember seeing many a weather forecast during my time in Canada and I don't remember any major difference in temps in Edmonton. Out of interest to what degree was october below average?

For my location its difficult to remember a longer run than 6 months below average - we managed it between June and November 1993, but don't think we have managed it since. Came close in 2008 - June-October 2008 were all below average I think. Jan - June 2001 can't be far off a 6 month run and possibly May - Oct 2007.

Also period July - Dec 2010 came close.

[cheeky_monkey]

I'm surprised last October was below average. I visited Calgary, Banff and Vancouver during the first 3 weeks and it was constantly above average throughout - very much above average. I left Calgary on the 20th in 20 degree sunshine - it felt positively late summer like and all the locals were saying it had been up to that point a particuarly warm October. I think it did become significantly colder towards the end of the month but not enough to cancel the warm first two thirds. I remember seeing many a weather forecast during my time in Canada and I don't remember any major difference in temps in Edmonton. Out of interest to what degree was october below average?

For my location its difficult to remember a longer run than 6 months below average - we managed it between June and November 1993, but don't think we have managed it since. Came close in 2008 - June-October 2008 were all below average I think. Jan - June 2001 can't be far off a 6 month run and possibly May - Oct 2007.

Also period July - Dec 2010 came close.

we had a very cold last 10 days in october the first 2 weeks were esp warm but some of this got cancelled by some record breaking cold nights up here...Oct in my area was 0.2c below normal

[reef]

The longest run at my location is 6 months and its happened three times since my records began in 1982:

Jan-Jun 1984

Jan-Jun 1985

Jul-Dec 1993

March - November 1988 was a 9 month spell without any above average months but May was exactly average so the run doesnt strictly count.

More recently below average months have been much less common, though Dec 2009 - March 2010 managed a 4 month run.

At the other end of the spectrum, April 2006 - June 2007 was a 15 month run of above average months here and included 5 months which set new records!

[summer blizzard]

No idea in my location, although England has seen 2, 4 month periods of below average months.

Dec 09, Mar 10.

Oct 10, Jan 11.

Nationally, England had a run of 16 above average months because May and June 2007 were also above average.

Incidently, June now looks odds on to be below average, so perhaps we will get a long run.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on what long-term averages are used. At Cleadon, using the estimated 1971-2000 averages the longest run was 6 months (July-December 1993) but using earlier averages such as 1961-1990 truncates that to 5 months (July-November 1993). If 1981-2010 is used it may well result in a lengthier period.

January-April 2001 all fell below the 1971-2000 averages in the Tyne and Wear area, a 4 month period, but October 2010 was fractionally above average so November 2010-January 2011 was just a 3 month period. Similarly, March 2010 was marginally above its 1971-2000 average, making Dec 2009-Feb 2010 a 3 month period.

[Richie V]

Just recorded my lowest june afternoon temperature ever (18 Years). It fell to 7.9C in a heavy shower about an hour ago!

[summer blizzard]

It depends on what long-term averages are used. At Cleadon, using the estimated 1971-2000 averages the longest run was 6 months (July-December 1993) but using earlier averages such as 1961-1990 truncates that to 5 months (July-November 1993). If 1981-2010 is used it may well result in a lengthier period.

January-April 2001 all fell below the 1971-2000 averages in the Tyne and Wear area, a 4 month period, but October 2010 was fractionally above average so November 2010-January 2011 was just a 3 month period. Similarly, March 2010 was marginally above its 1971-2000 average, making Dec 2009-Feb 2010 a 3 month period.

Was March 2010 not 6.1C, 0.2C below average?

[damianslaw]

we had a very cold last 10 days in october the first 2 weeks were esp warm but some of this got cancelled by some record breaking cold nights up here...Oct in my area was 0.2c below normal

Thanks for your reply, I knew it did become much colder immediately after I left on the 20th but I'm quite surprised at how cold - must have been notably cold for October to bring CET values down below average. I was very lucky with the weather - hardly seeing any rain during my stay and most days in the high teens and even low 20's the lowest max I recorded was about 11 degrees when I was in Banff - I visited the Icefields earlier in the month in basking sunshine and maxima up to 20 degrees... as I said I was very lucky but it would have been nice to experience the first winter snows of the season -indeed the tops were devoid of much snow and it didn't resemble my images of the rockies in my mind i.e. snow capped peaks

[Thundery wintry showers]

Was March 2010 not 6.1C, 0.2C below average?

That was for the CET, not the Tyne and Wear area.

[Terminal Moraine]

The longest run of below average months I've recorded in the last 35 years is 7 from May-Nov' 1987.

There was a run of 8 months from Dec 1984-Aug 1985 but this includes two months which were exactly average. The longest run this century is only 3 months from Dec' 2009-Feb' 2010.

The average in the above relates to the 1971-2000 period.