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Is Long Range Forecasting A Thing Of The Past?


  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Long Range Forecasting a thing of the past?



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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

This topic is in no way a dig at Netweather, this is a General question after many different opinion's on the forums over the past week, a simple question is Long Range Forecasting (LFR) a thing of the past?

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent

Not sure how a LRF can be a thing of the past. No, it's one of those things that will be perfected over time, so I applaud GP, and anyone who does a LRF and continues to do so.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I don't see how it can possibly be a thing of the past when forecasts are getting more accurate and more long range?

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Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand

If anything it's a thing of the future!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

If anything it's a thing of the future!

Yeah exactly!

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

The BBC TV forecast used to do a long range forecast for the month ahead in the 70s & possibly into the 80s. It was stopped as it really wasn't successful. So there's really nothing new in weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent

I guess having thought about it more, there is the potential to perfect it over time, as science continues to develop. However, I dont think any science can predict Mother Nature and what controls Earth and it's weather patterns over the days, weeks, months, decades, centuries etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

People who try to forecast for the longer term, will always have to deal with an element of uncertainty. Understanding the various oscillations, the state of the sun, the pull of the moon and plain old human error will always be a tough call for anyone. GP's forecast shows how easy it is for anyone, even with a good understanding of all of these, to be thrown off the rails by nature.

Nobody should be put off from making these long range forecasts because the more they are made, the more accurate they become. New discoveries are included in future forecasts and older ideas are fine tuned. What is needed, I think, is less focus on them from the various media outlets or perhaps people should just use a bit of common sense, which seems to be reducing as the media rams it's garbage at the gullible.

From a scientific standpoint, more is needed to be understood. I think more will come from the long range forecasts as we begin to unravel the complexity of climate.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Science isn't about giving up, it's about developing a hypothesison the issue, attempting to solve it and communicating their findings to reporters who then report to the media who then report to the public.

If they were to give up looking for the solution into the problem of long-range forecasting the climate then they had might as well give up finding a vaccine for AIDS.

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Posted
  • Location: Burntwood, Staffs
  • Location: Burntwood, Staffs

LRFs are whatever they want to be.

IMO they are absolute.

Once they are "amended" they cease to be.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

No, whether GP is right, nearly right or completely wrong with his summer forecast is irrelevant in my opinion, science and forecasting methods are only going to get better with time IMO, i know there are people that think that LRFs are not accurate enough to be published at the moment and they may have a valid argument, although i would rather have them there to be able to evaluate to be honest but the point is they are far more likely to be a thing of the future than a thing of the past as technology improves.

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