Model Output Discussion

[Summer Sun]

The NAE is predicting temps of 29C tomorrow.

http://expertcharts....062618_2506.gif

So +30C is certainly possible on Monday.

I do wish you would use all the available data PE!!

Incredibly the NAE predicts 22C at 6am on Monday. Going to be difficult sleeping tomorrow night.

http://expertcharts....062706_2506.gif

Looks like Great Yarmouth will be slightly cooler with the sea breeze, still 27c - 29c is very respectable for the UK coastline.

[Summer Sun]

GFS Keeps the 20 uppers in the SE for monday,

[EaasmanG]

GFS Keeps the 20 uppers in the SE for monday,

There are no 20 degree 850hpa temps in the UK on that chart. You are looking at the 15 degree isotherm. The 20 degree isotherm is over France.

[Summer Sun]

There are no 20 degree 850hpa temps in the UK on that chart. You are looking at the 15 degree isotherm. The 20 degree isotherm is over France.

Thanks i was looking at the wrong lines

Anyway all change by Tuesday

[TEITS]

There are no 20 degree 850hpa temps in the UK on that chart. You are looking at the 15 degree isotherm. The 20 degree isotherm is over France.

Actually the GFS is predicting 19C upper temps in the far SE. Generally for the SE/E Anglia/E Midlands they are around 17C-19C.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs542.gif

Latest NAE going for 30C on Monday and that chart is at lunchtime!!

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/06/25/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/11062712_2512.gif

Edited June 25, 2011 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Summer Sun]

Actually the GFS is predicting 19C upper temps in the far SE. Generally for the SE/E Anglia/E Midlands they are around 17C-19C.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs542.gif

Latest NAE going for 30C on Monday and that chart is at lunchtime!!

http://expertcharts....062712_2512.gif

The big question though is how much cloud cover will there be? if it's broken it could be even warmer.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO offers hope for the end of the week,

As does NOGAPS

Edited June 25, 2011 by Gavin D

[Eugene]

I rather fancy Monday will see a sheild of High cirro stratus from massive storms over france, turning the sunshine

milky over southern England. I would say 26oC under milky skies is a reasonable estimate. Temps of 32 - 33 that the likes of Gavin and others are touting come after days of heatbuild and under clear skies. one needs to factor in what the atmosphere is doing, as I say, milky skies likely plus the increasing high cloud from the encroaching cold front comiong down from the north west, IMO will not lead to clear blue skies on Monday.

Absolutely spot on my friend, good to see some realistic assessments instead of all the over the top ramping over a one day plume that will just bring cloudy skies to most.

You need days and days of a build up of heat for any temps over 30C widely not a really quick plume gone in no time.

Nice weather for end of the week though with lots of sunshine.

[Evening thunder]

Absolutely spot on my friend, good to see some realistic assessments instead of all the over the top ramping over a one day plume that will just bring cloudy skies to most.

You need days and days of a build up of heat for any temps over 30C widely not a really quick plume gone in no time.

Nice weather for end of the week though with lots of sunshine.

I'm not sure I agree that it will be cloudy in the areas that are hot tomorrow and Monday, maybe some high stuff on Monday yes, but Temps look to reach 30C on the SE on Monday and not just localised to London either, with uppers of 18C and warmth/heat moving north from France I see no reason why these temps can't be reached just because It's short lived. I'm sure there have been examples of this in the past.

Sorry if this is slightly off topic.

[mushymanrob]

UKMO offers hope for the end of the week,

As does NOGAPS

indeed the ukmo offers another sunny day or two next weekend, but without the high uppers it wont be as hot. however, it might be a step in the right direction assuming its not an outlier, the gfs 12z doesnt support anything more then a day or so, bringing in the atlantic pretty much straight away. after which its a pretty much atlantic dominated run and a continuation of the 'normal' summer regime...

[Summer Sun]

We shall have to see what ECM offers later, for the end of the week, it could be that GFS is under doing thing for next week and beyond, ECM has been fairly consistant of late so it could be onto something.

[The Northern Ramper]

It's not a heatwave.. I wish people wouldn't call it a heatwave whenever they see a 30C on the chart, there's a set definition for heatwave and we get 30C so often that it's silly to call anything hot a heatwave For my area it's something like 2 days of 32C and minima of 20C I think and I doubt that anywhere outside of London will reach 30C.

This week is looking like a good week though, possibly a 32C on Monday and 30C tomorrow here, then a week of slightly cooler weather in the lower 20s but still some sunshine but let's not forget the average for London is 23C so it's only average really.. I just hope we can get a sustained hot spell soon!

When on the bbc national news they call it a heatwave its no surprise people misinterpret.

[IanM]

It seems that the model discussion has become a general outpouring of wishing for a particular weather type, an avalanche of images, a running commentary of the models before they complete and very little actual model discussion.

Read the rules, read them a couple more times to make sure they sink in. Then every time before you post, ask yourself whether the post is genuinely model related, and adding to the discussion or something you could post in another area of the forum.

It's about the models, just the models and nothing but the models.

It's not about pretty pictures, where you live, where you wish you lived, what you hoped the weather would be, how you wish for a storm, baiting, sniping, trolling or generally posting the same thing repeatedly.

Hopefully that is understandable and you can all allow this part of the forum be what it is meant to be.

Any thoughts you have about this can be posted in the lounge, posts here other than model related will be deleted and the rules applied.

Thanks

[Summer Sun]

ECM is continuing to hint at high pressure re-building from Thursday (120 hrs), could be the start of another settled spell won't be as warm as this weekend but ECM could be onto something here, you never know.

[The Northern Ramper]

ECM is continuing to hint at high pressure re-building from Thursday (120 hrs), could be the start of another settled spell won't be as warm as this weekend but ECM could be onto something here, you never know.

You mean like the highs from ukmo and nogaps that you posted earlier.

[Bale]

We shall have to see what ECM offers later, for the end of the week, it could be that GFS is under doing thing for next week and beyond, ECM has been fairly consistant of late so it could be onto something.

Im sure the ECM was showing a potent storm for tues june 28 a few days ago..tbh the models are all along the same sort of lines...rubbish beyond 24hrs,bar the METO who only show a few days...no wonder

[Uncle_Barty]

MJO moving into Phase 2 suggestiung lowering heights over Greenland on the July composites.

Most forecasts suggest MJO moving into phase 1 which wouldnt be great news as it suggests a continuation of the June pattern for most if not all for us.

However, the ECM ensembles are forecasting an eventual move into phase 8 which would be better news for summer:

So it's all up for grabs, methinks. Your thoughts Chiono/GP? you're far more experienced at looking at these things than I am.

Edited June 25, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[Geordiesnow]

indeed the ukmo offers another sunny day or two next weekend, but without the high uppers it wont be as hot. however, it might be a step in the right direction assuming its not an outlier, the gfs 12z doesnt support anything more then a day or so, bringing in the atlantic pretty much straight away. after which its a pretty much atlantic dominated run and a continuation of the 'normal' summer regime...

But the high pressure is predicted before though so surely you should know by now that will vary from run to run, there has been hints in the model output in the recent time of high pressure perhaps coming back into the picture for the end of the week in particular so I would not quite say it will be a few days of high pressure then business as usual but didnt that what people just said a few days regarding this heat snap?

Show things can quickly change for the better but we still got to be wary of course because they can change back to a more unsettled outlook.

[Milhouse]

But the high pressure is predicted before though so surely you should know by now that will vary from run to run, there has been hints in the model output in the recent time of high pressure perhaps coming back into the picture for the end of the week in particular so I would not quite say it will be a few days of high pressure then business as usual but didnt that what people just said a few days regarding this heat snap?

Show things can quickly change for the better but we still got to be wary of course because they can change back to a more unsettled outlook.

I'm still a bit cautious over calling an extended settled spell for the southern half of the UK but that is what the ECM 12z is showing. Once any rain clears northwards on Tuesday the rest of the run is essentially mostly settled with LP only bringing any meaningful rain to northern Scotland.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm is a really really nice run but iv'e seen great operationals quite a few times in the last week or two turn out to be red herrigs.

I will say this though,if ecm does come off most here will be very happy,and quite a few very red.

lol.

[Summer Sun]

Just viewed the ECM charts fully and it's looking very good for the weekend and into next week,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Let's hope ECM is right, and GFS comes on board during the week.

[TEITS]

Absolutely spot on my friend, good to see some realistic assessments instead of all the over the top ramping over a one day plume that will just bring cloudy skies to most.

You need days and days of a build up of heat for any temps over 30C widely not a really quick plume gone in no time.

Nice weather for end of the week though with lots of sunshine.

So the BBC/Met O are wrong!

Let me make something clear, if the model output doesn't change 30C will be reached on Monday and this is nothng to do with ramping but merely commenting on what the models show.

The simple reason why 30C will easily be obtained in the SE is because temps will start off at a very high point (see link). Also we have upper temps in the region of 17-19C.

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/06/25/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/11062706_2512.gif

If you have a temp of 21C at 7am then 25C can easily be reached by 10am.

My punt is the max temps tomorrow will be around 29C. On Monday I wouldn't be surprised if someone records 31C.

[January Snowstorm]

Significant improvements in the models tonight for the medium / long term.

If the azores high moves in properly it could be bingo for early July.

As ever more runs needed, but for the first time in 2 months something worthwhile could be brewing

[Gibby]

In Summary tonight:-

GFS shows a cold front moving erratically SE over England on Monday/Tuesday replacing the heat with cloud and thundery rain in the SE before things cool down under a NW flow. GFS then shows a sustained period of Atlantic winds with rain at times and near normal temperatures with some warmer slots as ridges pass in the south.

UKMO has slowed the passage of the cold front until later Tuesday giving the risk of thundery rain for quite a large slice of England overnight Monday/Tuesday. Cool air followed by a new ridge late in the week brings a return to settled and warmer conditions late next week.

ECM looks a lot more promising tonight in the long term with several opportunities fulfilled on building the Azores high towards southern Britain delivering some pleasantly warm summer weather with just short slightly unsettled conditions more notably for the north.

It looks like ECM is pick of the bunch for fine weather fans tonight. All models seem to offer the chance of some thundery weather in the SE late Monday/Tuesday to which the extent is still unfinalized. Thereafter. pressure rebuilds from the SW late next week before GFS breaks things down with unsettled Atlantic based weather while ECM draws high pressure up from the SW frequently to encourage fine and settled conditions at times, at least in the south.

[Jason T]

Well here we go peeps, Model output corking really, Got to admit its NICE to see jolly post,s with the added excitement value ,incomparison to how the last 6 weeks have been, had some real prozac posts. Loving the the ECM and also the ukmo is nearly there as for the gfs well you never know. So whats the frame of mind for 7 days out from now ?.

I still think--- dangerous territory this----,SHADES OF 76, will hold its title as per GP lrf. In the fact that june and july were meant to be the best and potential record breakers,but as may and june turned out to be well a tad below expected.....hahahaha, NOT, that july and august will be the months to watch. As for thunder storms well in the past 4-5 years they have been non showers,maybe due to the DUNSTABLE DOWN HILLS, nearby adverting course.

Anyway chins up lets will these models and data output to our favour and hopefully EVERYONE uk wide and ireland, can have a long taste of the hot sultry nights,burning hot days and, Oh yeh i forgot ....the chance of some AWESOME storms.

SL

Edited June 25, 2011 by silver line