Model Output Discussion

[Tom Montalbano]

Looking like a very unsettled weekend with rain or showers around and some blustery winds in places. Some difficult conditions on the cards for the golfers in the Open Championship at Sandwich in Kent (Thurs-Sun).

Regards,

Tom.

[Milhouse]

A long way off i know but its not often we see such a strong agreement on high presure building in FI

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think the high is close enough on that chart to mean a great deal- I think we'd need to see that 1020mb isobar covering a large slice of the country. Interestingly the ECMWF ensemble mean also shows the high trying to build from the SW at T+240- if nothing else, it suggests that the operational runs may be rather over-egging the lows following the initial one on Saturday.

The jet is certainly going to step up some notches over the weekend, which looks like it will be pretty wet and windy, but that doesn't mean that we won't see a pattern change shortly afterwards. There are signs that into FI it could start to weaken again, although the result may well be a cool N/NW flow with high pressure moving in closer to the SW.

[bluearmy]

I don't think the high is close enough on that chart to mean a great deal- I think we'd need to see that 1020mb isobar covering a large slice of the country. Interestingly the ECMWF ensemble mean also shows the high trying to build from the SW at T+240- if nothing else, it suggests that the operational runs may be rather over-egging the lows following the initial one on Saturday.

The jet is certainly going to step up some notches over the weekend, which looks like it will be pretty wet and windy, but that doesn't mean that we won't see a pattern change shortly afterwards. There are signs that into FI it could start to weaken again, although the result may well be a cool N/NW flow with high pressure moving in closer to the SW.

judging by the last two naefs runs, we may be seeing a decent spell around the last week of the month. influenced by the sceuro ridge building nw, that means the further se, the better/more reliable this may turn out to be. the mean jet is certainly a lot lot weaker beyond T200.

[Snowyowl9]

A few more days left of reasonable dry and sometimes sunny,the troughs seem to of gone on today`s faxes.

Friday later the rain comes back so hopefully get this hay in before then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

[johnholmes]

The weather can hardly be classed as warm and settled here. Yesterday was summery but today is overcast and chilly. Of course you are perfectly entitled to disagree with the account I make in my summaries but I always state what's shown and never base it on 'could's' and 'might happens'. As it stands the weather beyond this Friday Nationally and not IMBY can only be described as unsettled, windy and often wet.

how about putting where you are Gibby in your avatar, your post means nothing to me at the moment-sorry?

[Bluebreezer54]

how about putting where you are Gibby in your avatar, your post means nothing to me at the moment-sorry?

Radstock, Somerset John

[Summer Sun]

how about putting where you are Gibby in your avatar, your post means nothing to me at the moment-sorry?

I live on the top of a 400 feet hill on the North side of Radstock Town.

Taken from Gibby's Profile

[UV-RAY]

judging by the last two naefs runs, we may be seeing a decent spell around the last week of the month. influenced by the sceuro ridge building nw, that means the further se, the better/more reliable this may turn out to be. the mean jet is certainly a lot lot weaker beyond T200.

Off topic a little, but if true that would fall into line with Roger J's thoughts for later this month.

[ribster]

Snow Lover's post above is yet another example of a post that ignores the statistical realities. I have no idea where this concept that "time is ticking on any real warmth in August" comes from. Not only was the record ever temp set in mid-August, the first two weeks of August are, on average, just about the warmest of the year, and you can put a cigarette paper between average temps for all August and all July. More, in some southern regions August is the sunnier month. As for September, early parts of the month ate rightfully summer - just because the UKMO insist that autumn begins on 1 September doesn't make it so.

I think Mr. Data might be able to shed some light on the realities of your post, if he is about...

As for Autumn, you're right, it might be 16th August this year :lol:

Edited July 12, 2011 by ribster

[shedhead]

Whilst the 06GFS does hint at a pattern change and a move towards more settled conditions in FI, I think it wise to view it's output with caution at this stage. Several times across the last 5 or 6 weeks we've seen similar evolutions

emerge beyond T+192hrs, only to be watered down, or in some cases smashed to bits on the very next run.

Edited July 12, 2011 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

I live on the top of a 400 feet hill on the North side of Radstock Town.

Taken from Gibby's Profile

thanks Gavin and blue breeze

I don't show folks details other than in their avatar hence had no idea where Gibby was talking about-be much easier if he did as I asked and for everyone, some like me only have the avatar showing as folks details seem to go on for ever

end of jh rant about towns in avatars - a hobby horse of mine to new folk!!

[minus 9]

Am I right in thinking that the low hasnt even formed for the weekend yet. Could it position it self further east on the next few runs. Im new to this model watching by the way. Any ideas.

[johnholmes]

nothing on the 500mb anomaly charts, any of the 3, is very supportive of any change.

NOAA has no sign of any +ve 500mb anomalies to our e/ne/se, GFS shows it but ECMWF barely

So the only thing that MIGHT hold out some hope for the last week in July is the word 'maybe' for southern areas

[shedhead]

Am I right in thinking that the low hasnt even formed for the weekend yet. Could it position it self further east on the next few runs. Im new to this model watching by the way. Any ideas.

There will inevitably be some changes to timing, intensity and track of the low, but the end result is likely to be the same when looking at things from a national perspective this weekend, i.e cool and windy,

with rain then showers.

Edited July 12, 2011 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

Am I right in thinking that the low hasnt even formed for the weekend yet. Could it position it self further east on the next few runs. Im new to this model watching by the way. Any ideas.

yes and no is the correct answer!

There is a low in the Iceland-Greenland area already. However, what will happen is that another low exiting the eastern seaboard will be the major player and absorb the initial low. To watch this happening view the Met O Fax charts from now (T+00) through to Saturday to see how the process is expected to develop.

hope that helps?

Edited July 12, 2011 by johnholmes

[Buzzit]

In my view there is not even hopium in the 6z ensembles that the rest of July will offer anything in the way of warm and pleasant weather.

On a seperate note, i really feel sorry for GP getting the summer long range forecast so wrong, I hope he finds something in the data which points to the missed link/s and finds the confidence to keep at it.

[mushymanrob]

Snow Lover's post above is yet another example of a post that ignores the statistical realities. I have no idea where this concept that "time is ticking on any real warmth in August" comes from. Not only was the record ever temp set in mid-August, the first two weeks of August are, on average, just about the warmest of the year, and you can put a cigarette paper between average temps for all August and all July. More, in some southern regions August is the sunnier month. As for September, early parts of the month ate rightfully summer - just because the UKMO insist that autumn begins on 1 September doesn't make it so.

with respect.... i dont agree with you and i think snowlover made a very salient point.

the problem is, that warmth/heat doesnt pop up out of the blue very often, other then odd days here and there. hot spells need to evolve, and as things stand, both in real time and in predicted time, there is NO predicted synoptics that could lead to a hot spell. the warmest ever temp might have been recorded in august, and august generally might be the warmest month.. but warmth in august most often follows warmth in june and july. i cannot remember a proper hot spell in august that followed ordinary junes and julys.

imho, if there was a likelyhood of heat/ hot spell in august, the signes, the teleconnections, must be getting geared up for that NOW, and they arent.

september is autumn, nature says so, its a time of fruitfullness and not of flowering.

There should be plenty of opportunity for thunderstorms once the innitial band of rain passes on Friday. The weekend and beyond offers scope for some quite big storms as the air will be cool and unstable aloft and with the solar input at it's maximum now anywhere could see a storm or two.

that depends upon what you call 'thunderstorms'... imho true storms are the continental, multicellular summer humdingers.... storms off the atlantic are to me, thundery showers.

i see the 06z tries to bring in something more settled by the end of next week... total fantasy of course, whilst it might happen (and i for one hope it does), as things stand its nothing more then an fi tease.

In my view there is not even hopium in the 6z ensembles that the rest of July will offer anything in the way of warm and pleasant weather.

On a seperate note, i really feel sorry for GP getting the summer long range forecast so wrong, I hope he finds something in the data which points to the missed link/s and finds the confidence to keep at it.

....but was it so wrong?... 76 is remembered for the drought more then the heat, after a very dry spring, here in derby the ground is still very dry as any rain we have had has failed to soak in. a week of warm sunshine here would soon turn grass brown, and THAT would evoke 'shades of 76'....

.... and after saying all that.... i view todays mjo and its a step in the right direction! although it steals another day in phase 8, theres expected to be a pretty rapid transit through phase 1, into phase 2, and edging slowly towards phase three which im told IS favourable for anticyclonic dominated weather! so maybe theres tentetive signes of improvement late in the month!

[TEITS]

....but was it so wrong?... 76 is remembered for the drought more then the heat, after a very dry spring, here in derby the ground is still very dry as any rain we have had has failed to soak in. a week of warm sunshine here would soon turn grass brown, and THAT would evoke 'shades of 76'....

Hang on Mushy during the summer of 76 there was 14 consecutive days of temps in excess of 31C during July. The longest hot spell so far this summer is 2 days!

I have the greatest respect for GP but the forecast is wrong not just weatherwise but synoptically.

[Paul]

This is the model thread though - there's a thread dedicated to the summer forecast..

[mushymanrob]

Hang on Mushy during the summer of 76 there was 14 consecutive days of temps in excess of 31C during July. The longest hot spell so far this summer is 2 days!

I have the greatest respect for GP but the forecast is wrong not just weatherwise but synoptically.

i agree, the forecast was wrong, but im just questioning how wrong...

(maybe these posts should be moved to the correct forum )

[minus 9]

Thank you john and shedhead for taking the time to respond to my post. Learning all time cheers.

[Supacell]

that depends upon what you call 'thunderstorms'... imho true storms are the continental, multicellular summer humdingers.... storms off the atlantic are to me, thundery showers.

Obviously the continental storms are the most impressive in terms of overnight lightning displays etc, and I am yet to see anything like this in 2011. If the models are to be believed then unlikely to see it in the near future either. However, I was more than happy with the thundery showers we got last week. Some of the cloud formations were awesome, there was plenty of lightning and from an IMBY point of view this area seems to do much better with Atlantic thundery showers than continental plumes.

Therefore, if a repeat of last week occurs next week it will reconpense some way to making up from what is looking a very poor week for summery weather - at least I can do some chasing. However, remember next week is still imo FI. To put things into perspective. I went away to Northumberland for the first 3 days of June. I spent the week before looking at charts showing everything from rain and winds to slack northerlies with sea fog seeming likely - basically a poor or grotty outlook. What actually happened is we had a week with unbroken sunshine and temperatures in the low 70's for the entire time. This didn't show up on the charts until about 2-3 days before we went.

I agree that the LP on Friday/Saturday is very likely to happen now with agreement across all 3 major models - but after this I still think that things can change.

[chicken soup]

Can anyone point me towards any charts showing how strong the winds are likely to be next week i only ask as im traveling down to dartmouth for 3 days out boat fishing, not much point going if trips are canceled due to high winds,im living in hope that the worst of this low will have moved on by monday. cheers

Edited July 12, 2011 by chicken soup

[Summer Sun]

Yes use the below link

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

On the Select chart type: click UK wind speed/dir