1 Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[weatherobsuk]

Someone grab a rope and pull Newcastle down a hundred miles or so in this general direction. Jeees.

[Costa Del Fal]

Massive downgrade on the GFS 12z for everyone really. Lets hope its wrong.

[Harry]

Massive downgrade on the GFS 12z for everyone really. Lets hope its wrong.

Very much so...however, having a gander at the FAX chart there is really quite a few unknowns and scope for changes

There's lows merging with other lows, ridges appearing out of nowhere nudging lows in different directions, waving weather fronts which could lead to torrential thunderstorms in one place and drizzle down the road...it's all up in the air in the moment (I cannot help but think)

It wouldn't be the first time however a hot and humid spell has had little in the way of a bang.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well Well....the same old same old tiresome everything goes east scenario yet again then if GFS has got it right! I wouldn't mind putting money on a completely thunderless summer...quite honestly I cannot remember the last time that happened.

I agree it has been a poor summer for storms in this area too, thus far.

[P-M]

Someone grab a rope and pull Newcastle down a hundred miles or so in this general direction. Jeees.

lol it will probably produce nothing but heavy rain!

Just had a walk outside and it's as muggy as anything really heavy atmosphere but I like it in a strange kind of way it almost feels like being on the continent, proper summer's evening

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very much so...however, having a gander at the FAX chart there is really quite a few unknowns and scope for changes

There's lows merging with other lows, ridges appearing out of nowhere nudging lows in different directions, waving weather fronts which could lead to torrential thunderstorms in one place and drizzle down the road...it's all up in the air in the moment (I cannot help but think)

It wouldn't be the first time however a hot and humid spell has had little in the way of a bang.

I'm waiting for the 12 NAE to come out, no sign of it yet. It wasn't really keen on convective potential tomorrow on the 6z update, things seem to be going the way of the pear already. Up until a couple of days ago this was looking like being a very plumetastic and interesting week.

[weatherobsuk]

Something more significant for the southern half now cropping up. Towards the south of Bristol, not much on NW radar yet but the developing Tcu is evident on the satellite loops.

[Carl46Wrexham]

A hot, humid spell without a storm is just not right. It's like fish without chips....or politics without corruption.

[Raidan]

I really hope your right Snow Joke.

[xtremeweather]

Developments showing up in the southwest approaches, slowly edging north northeast. The startings of tonights activity? Warm and hazy here, temp at 24'c and muggy ( lovely ).

[Staffordshire]

Developments showing up in the southwest approaches, slowly edging north northeast. The startings of tonights activity? Warm and hazy here, temp at 24'c and muggy ( lovely ).

Are you reffering to the bulk in the Atlantic?

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting cloud development in Wiltshire/Gloucestershire. Its track would take it very near here should something develop and sustain itself. Unlikely though probably.

[P-M]

Sky looks amazing, looks like a small gust front of sorts on the approach, sky is now almost black to my SW now, very angry looking but alas nee thunder!

[loopydreamer]

look at that mass in the atlantic! will that bring somthing foy you guys in west tonight??

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/travelnews/bristol/trafficcameras/

Being picked up here (best cam for now before crossing the M4 is J17-J18)

[P-M]

Hammering it down now here with really impressive downdraft!

[Costa Del Fal]

Not only is the NAE not available, the NMM is now late too. Just when you need them nothing seems to work!

Precipitation has developed under the developments in Wiltshire area now.

EDIT: NAE 12z finally coming out but subject to further Delay as rainfall charts are currently showing the 06z still.

Edited August 1, 2011 by Blizzards

[P-M]

Thunder heard to my SW now...

[xtremeweather]

Are you reffering to the bulk in the Atlantic?

Yeah. Just poking it's nose onto the radar now.

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 12Z is out and like the GFS shunts the potential for the East only now and even here the potential isnt that good with poor lapse rates etc. I have to say this week is fast going down the pan. Very isolated storms tomorrow is as best it will get in my view.

[Chris K]

Yeah. Just poking it's nose onto the radar now.

Supposedly this is meant to fizzle out eventually but give some heavy pulses of rain across some western areas of wales and also Scotland. Local forecast for me has downgraded the thundery potential.....in fact not mentioning anything for my area for next 2 days apart from an isolated light shower. Hopefully something will pop up at some point....

[Carl46Wrexham]

I have to say this week which initially looked really promising for the storm starved amongst us, is now looking to be a major disappointment. As far as today has been concerned...take away the humidity and its been another one of this summer's rotten wet days.

I'm seriously beginning to wish to see the back of Summer 2011.

[Cheshire Freeze]

NMM 12Z is out and like the GFS shunts the potential for the East only now and even here the potential isnt that good with poor lapse rates etc. I have to say this week is fast going down the pan. Very isolated storms tomorrow is as best it will get in my view.

ohhhhhhh dear, I feared as much.

[IanR]

thunder in the northeast again, well I never

[P-M]

thunder in the northeast again, well I never

Aye but didn't amount to much! lol Rain and wind was impressive though