Tropical Storm Harvey

[Somerset Squall]

TD8 formed this morning northeast of Honduras. The depression has an intensity of 30kts and is moving west-northwestwards towards Belize. 08L has about 24-36hrs over water, in which time it should become at least a moderate tropical storm before landfall in Belize. Dissipation will then occur over land.

[Somerset Squall]

08L has become Tropical Storm Harvey, with intensity now at 35kts. Harvey has jogged northwards from the previous track allowing the storm more time over water. Harvey has a small, tight inner core with deep centralised convection. I think Harvey may become stronger than the 45kts indicated by the NHC. It probably won't have time to become a hurricane however, good news for Belize.

EDIT: it is worth pointing out that any further shifts north could mean Harvey survives it's trip over Belize and moves into the southern Bay Of Campeche. One possibility to watch.

[Iceberg]

Some Angry convection flaring around the small core isn't there might be indicative of strengthening, we've seen little systems like this go up quickly over the years. Maybe another one.

[Somerset Squall]

This suggests fast strengthening:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

3.3 / 996.8mb/ 51.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

3.3 3.5 4.0

[Paranoid]

Harvey's at 50mph, so strengthening quickly (but hardly rapid intensification). NHC are going for a 65mph peak.

[Coast]

[knocker]

WTNT43 KNHC 200854

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011

400 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

AFTER A LULL BETWEEN 0400 AND 0600 UTC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS

RE-BLOSSOMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF HARVEY...WHICH IS VERY

NEAR ROATAN ACCORDING TO A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THAT ISLAND.

SINCE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE STRUCTURE WHEN

THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION WAS INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. ANOTHER RECON

MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH HARVEY AROUND 1200 UTC.

BASED ON THE ROATAN OBSERVATIONS...HARVEY MAY HAVE PICKED UP SOME

SPEED...AND ITS INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/10. THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE STEERING HARVEY ON A NEARLY CONSTANT WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL

DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE

SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE GFS...

ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME

STRENGTHENING BEFORE HARVEY REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER

TODAY. THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE THE HIGHEST OF

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATE THAT HARVEY COULD BE JUST BELOW

HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 12 HOURS. SINCE LANDFALL ON THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE WITHIN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...IT IS

STILL POSSIBLE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE

MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE EVEN THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY

SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN FACT...THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE

OF THAT OCCURRING...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND RECENT NHC

INTENSITY ERRORS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER HARVEY MOVES

INLAND...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AND BEYOND

FOLLOWS THE DECAY OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS. DISSIPATION IS NOW

EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.

BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA

HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

ALONG THE GUATEMALAN COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 16.4N 86.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 20/1800Z 16.5N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 21/0600Z 16.7N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

36H 21/1800Z 16.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

48H 22/0600Z 17.2N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[Somerset Squall]

Harvey is making landfall as a 50kt (60mph) tropical storm. Eight in a row to have failed to make hurricane status!

[Cookie]

Harvey is making landfall as a 50kt (60mph) tropical storm. Eight in a row to have failed to make hurricane status!

quite something aint it!

[Somerset Squall]

Harvey is clinging on to tropical depression status as it moves westwards. The LLC is intact just inland south of the Bay Of Campeche. Heavy rains continue but should ease as the LLC dissipates in the next 24hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Harvey has jogged to the north and against expectations, has moved back over water in the southern Bay Of Campeche. Intensity is at 25kts. Harvey is expected to restrengthen into a tropical storm before making it's 2nd landfall, this time in Mexico. NHC forecast a secondary peak of 35kts prior to landfall. Harvey doesn't want to give up!

[Somerset Squall]

Harvey restrengthened to 30kts but has dived southwestwards inland again. This time, Harvey should dissipate, but heavy rains could continue for another 24-48hrs, causing further flooding.