Model Output Discussion - September Onwards

[Backtrack]

GFS doesn't look bad at all to me. After this week things look like turning warmer yet again with high pressure ridging in from the West, leaving us under 10-15c 850 temperatures, this certainly will be boosting temperatures above the seasonal average again.

No sign of any real cool/cold weather away from Northern hills within the reliable time frame either. Not like I am looking for it, as I'd take another heatwave over a cold snap in October any day!

[Frosty.]

The ecm looks best in FI with a large anticyclone building across the uk but before then there is a battle with low pressure tending to dominate the north but with high pressure to the south of the uk bringing longer fine spells to southern britain and southern england especially although the heatwaves appear to be over until next spring. The Gfs 06z is rather less optimistic with low pressure tending to be in more control for longer periods and the influence of high pressure rather restricted to southern areas. The battle ahead between low and high pressure looks like resulting in strong to gale force sw'ly or w'ly winds for the coming weekend but at least it will be very mild or even warm with Tm air for many areas but thurs/fri this week look much cooler with strong nw'ly winds and showers which will have a wintry flavour on hills in scotland with snow for the mountains before a ridge cuts off the colder, showery flow by saturday, then windy and changeable with the worst weather across the north..does that sound familiar? basically it's the story of the last 6 months.

[kold weather]

Closing this thread now.

New Model discussion here: