9th Sept 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Chris K]

I'm assuming there isn't much else going to happen this evening (around my area). An area of rain current over South Wales that came from Cornwall is moving away NE. Nothing much building behind it as far as I can see and weather forecasts aren't really picking up anything for later. Its been a grey day here but very muggy! Not comfortable wearing a suit in ¬_¬.

Edited September 9, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Coast]

I'm assuming there isn't much else going to happen this evening (around my area).

Maybe overnight

[Staffordshire]

So a level one has been issued yet there's hardly any convection at all?...

[Chris K]

So a level one has been issued yet there's hardly any convection at all?...

I thought this at first, but after reading the ESTOFEX forecast - "Initiation may be fostered by a prefrontal convergence zone, which moves in from the west after midnight, but strength of this boundary remains vague at best. Also initiation in the southern part of the level 1 may be more sporadic due to increasing WAA/capping."

So to be honest, it could happen, but I wouldn't be too disheartened if it didn't.

[Staffordshire]

So it's meant to happen tonight?

I thought this at first, but after reading the ESTOFEX forecast - "Initiation may be fostered by a prefrontal convergence zone, which moves in from the west after midnight, but strength of this boundary remains vague at best. Also initiation in the southern part of the level 1 may be more sporadic due to increasing WAA/capping."

So to be honest, it could happen, but I wouldn't be too disheartened if it didn't.

[DeepSnow]

Wasn't expecting anything today but heard between 5-10 distant rumbles of thunder, got a bit loud for a few of them aswell and all my friends at school heard them as it was at lunchtime! Was nice considering i expected nothing today!

[Chris K]

So it's meant to happen tonight?

Well the trough is moving through now, I'm unsure myself. Im only just this minute reading UKASF forecasts etc. The UKASF forecast has been updated and south wales and Devon etc are now moderate risk with quite a lot of England having a slight risk.

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/99

[Harry]

So it's meant to happen tonight?

Yes, as per the text linked with the Lvl 1 risk

[Staffordshire]

Yes, as per the text linked with the Lvl 1 risk

Hehe just got back from collage, didn't really read it, thanks bugganuts! Good luck all

[Jane Louise]

Just a quick question re the netweather extra radar - I use my ipod to view this forum. Would i be able to see the radar on it or does it need flash?

It works fine on mine and I don't think I have flash!

Here's Torro's latest too. All these updated forecasts look pretty promising! Good luck everyone.

Coast, I'll let you post up the map lol.

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/017

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 11:40GMT on Friday September 9 2011

Valid from/until: 11:40-1100GMT on Friday September 9/Saturday September 10 2011 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England

Wales

S Scotland

Isle of Man

Eastern N Ireland

Central and eastern Eire

THREATS

Hail to 15-20mm diameter; gusty winds to 50mph; CG lightning; locally heavy rain

SYNOPSIS

Large upper low to the west of the British Isles will move slowly NE'wards, but will remain to the west. An upper ridge will move quickly away to the east as a fairly strong upper trough rotates into the UK.

Lower down, strong warm advection is occurring across SW England at the moment - the leading edge of upper height falls is overspreading the warm advection, and differential thermal advection has allowed thunderstorms to develop across the south-west. Cloud-layer shear is marginally sufficient for elevated mesocyclones, so there is the risk of some hail in the heavier cores, along with gusty winds.

This activity will continue to move NNE and NE, and may well affect parts of Wales and the Midlands later this afternoon, and then parts of N and E England this evening. Other storms may develop in eastern Eire, and move into parts of eastern N Ireland and S Scotland this evening.

overnight, these storms may continue to affect parts of S Scotland. A cold front will move in from the west too, and this may bring further showers and thunderstorms to parts of Eire, N Ireland, and western Britain overnight.

Another area of instability is indicated by some models as developing across parts of southern, central and eastern England later tonight and into tomorrow morning, as the upper trough approaches. Thunderstorms may develop here too. The upper flow will increase overnight, and so there is a higher conditional probability of elevated mesocyclones developing with this - if these do develop, hail to 20mm, perhaps locally 30mm, is possible.

At this stage, the overall risk of severe weather appears to be too low to warrant a watch.

Forecaster: RPK

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like some good Lightning activity in the SW earlier. The rain is nearly here but just that. Yet again all thundery weather died out for now anyway.

Edited September 9, 2011 by Blizzards

[Coast]

Coast, I'll let you post up the map lol.

[Erbyskerby]

Thanks Jane Louise (and Coast earlier) - might get me a subsciption then. Thanks again!

[Kain]

Could have sworn I just heard a rumble of thunder while painting Dark Eldar...

Can't be 100% sure though

[Costa Del Fal]

Scrap what ive just said, just had a rumble of Thunder here.

[Harry]

Think there might be something amiss with the 12z CAPE/LI charts.....

[dallas]

Think there might be something amiss with the 12z CAPE/LI charts.....

Think they have all gone a bit batty, been running the precip charts, looks horrendus!

[Chris K]

Think they have all gone a bit batty, been running the precip charts, looks horrendus!

Yea think they have gone a bit crazy!

[Flash Elvis]

Just in what direction these storms meant to be coming from???

[kold weather]

Decent looking small cell just moving past Northampton, a slightly bigger clump of cells moving to the north of Derby.

[Evening thunder]

Anyone know whats happend to the met-office invent predicted rainfall radar..they seem to have moved/binned it ? from their site.

They've moved to the new Met-O beta site that can be viewed here

Then if you click on 'Get detailed forecast maps for UK' below the weather map you should get to very similar maps to the ones that were in invent

[Robbie Garrett]

Little drizzle and -RA here in London

[Jane Louise]

Anybody got any storms yet lol? nothing happening here, quite humid though!

[A.J]

Anybody got any storms yet lol? nothing happening here, quite humid though!

diddly squat on radar atm Jane, barely a drop of rain is to be found anywhere in the UK currently!

[Jane Louise]

diddly squat on radar atm Jane, barely a drop of rain is to be found anywhere in the UK currently!

Lol AJ, I was hoping the storms were around somewhere and the radars were wrong by not picking up anything as this has happened before . (think it's desperation on my part to be honest )