Major Hurricane Ophelia

[summer blizzard]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN

HAS CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY

CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND THE

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE HAS BEEN

AN EYE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT

THERE IS DEFINITELY A DISTINCT ONE AT THE MID-LEVELS ON EARLIER

MICROWAVE DATA. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0

ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED

TO HURRICANE STATUS...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 SEASON.

OPHELIA HAS KICKED OUT THE SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL

LGEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER HURRICANE.

BEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...

AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT

IN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY

96 HOURS OR SOONER.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT

8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING TO REPORT. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE OF

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT

2 TO 3 DAYS. OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY

AND THEN RECURVE NEAR THE LATITUDE OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BARELY REACHES BERMUDA

AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 01/1800Z 30.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

72H 02/1800Z 41.0N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 03/1800Z 51.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 04/1800Z 53.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

90mph peak now, just shy of category 2.

[knocker]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011

1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

OPHELIA IS STRENGTHENING WITH AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT

ON BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THERE

IS SOME TILT ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...A SOLID EYEWALL

HAS FORMED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM

SAB/TAFB...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...THE INITIAL

WINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FETCH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS

HEADED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL INSIST

THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DIVERTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF

THE HURRICANE AND NOT IMPACT OPHELIA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL

RIDGE. SINCE THE WATERS STAY WARM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS AND

BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST

DECREASING SHEAR VALUE...THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE

PREVIOUS ONE.. THE NEW FORECAST IS BELOW THE HWRF/GFDL

CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOW THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR

HURRICANE STATUS IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THERE IS

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO REPORT IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF

DAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND BENDING

TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE NHC FORECAST

DURING THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AFTER RECURVATURE...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED

LEFTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE

NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTER DAY 2 AND IS CLOSE TO A

BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT

OPHELIA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.9N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 30/1200Z 23.2N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 01/0000Z 25.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

36H 01/1200Z 28.8N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

48H 02/0000Z 32.8N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 03/0000Z 43.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED

[Paranoid]

Now a Category 3, making Ophelia the 3rd major hurricane of the season. The NHC think she's peaked now so they forecast weakening from this point on.

[summer blizzard]

Certainly some fairly rapid intensification (about a 50mph increase in 24 hours).

Looks very good on sattelite althogh the western/south western edge looks a little lacking.

[Somerset Squall]

Ophelia has battled through one hell of a hostile environment to get here, but yes, Ophelia's intensity has risen to 100kts, making her a major hurricane. She has certainly made use of the (finally!) favourable environment.

[summer blizzard]

Ophelia and Phillipe have begun interaction as seen clearly below...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Right now it seems that they are doing each other a favour as Ophelia is enhancing Phillipe's outflow and Phillipe is effectively feeding Ophelia. Ophelia is on a different track and increasing speed, so it should not do any harm.

Ophelia forecast to remain at 115mph for the next 36 hours, so there is a chance that it could make a run for category 4.

[knocker]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011

1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE EYE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME WARMER

WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL STAYING DEEP. DVORAK

ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM 102-112 KT...SO

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME VALUES

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS

FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE

THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING

WATER TEMPERATURES. AFTER DAY 2...A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD WATERS

AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING OF OPHELIA AND

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A BAROCLINIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR

THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE

STEERING CURRENTS BECOME STRONGER BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE

LATEST GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING OPHELIA COMING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN

NEWFOUNDLAND. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD

THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE

NORTHWEST BEYOND 36 HOURS. FUTURE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT HAVE

TO BE MADE BECAUSE THE NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE

MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 26.2N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

12H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

24H 02/0000Z 32.4N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

36H 02/1200Z 37.2N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

48H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

72H 04/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Coast]

MIAMI (AP) — Forecasters say Hurricane Ophelia is gaining strength and is expected to pass east of Bermuda. Early Saturday morning, Ophelia had maximum sustained winds near 120 mph (193 kph). The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the center of Ophelia was about 385 miles (620 kilometers) south-southeast of Bermuda, and was moving north at about 17 mph (27 kph). It was expected to speed up and pass east of Bermuda late Saturday. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda, where tropical storm force winds are possible starting Saturday afternoon. Ophelia reached hurricane strength Thursday afternoon and became a Category 3 storm Friday. It is the season's fourth hurricane.

Earlier, Ophelia caused flooding and cut off communities on Dominica.

http://www.google.co...128382295849dcd

[mezzacyclone]

Shes certainly blowing a wild one out on the high seas, closing in over NDBC station 41049 @ 27.500 N 63.000 W with 110-115mph gusts as of 07:50 GMT.

updates on the recent 35a suggest Ophelia passed directly over the buoy estimating a minimum central pressure of 952mb.

Interests in Newfoundland as the path looks close with Cat1 strength?

[knocker]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011

1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

OPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND

MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR EYE

SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH BOTH

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...THEY

STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS

STILL EMBEDDED IN LIGHT SHEAR AND MOVING OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED

TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA

REACHES COOLER WATERS...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME

POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE

SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE

HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN

UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN

MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IS VERY

CONSISTENT AT LEAST TO 48 HOURS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND

KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA LATER

TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 29.5N 62.9W 105 KT 120 MPH

12H 02/0000Z 32.5N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 02/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

36H 03/0000Z 42.0N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 03/1200Z 46.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 04/1200Z 50.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

[Kiewii]

I don't think it will make Category 4 as it is already past the 30N mark and waters are cooling.

[knocker]

I don't think it will make Category 4 as it is already past the 30N mark and waters are cooling.

That's really what the last discussion said.

[Paranoid]

She has infact become a Category 4. A little stronger than Katia at her peak and very close to being the most intense storm in the season so far.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

This may explain the intensification. You can see to the right that for the past 24-36 hours or so, Ophelia has been effectively fed moisture by Phillipe (also keeping Phillipe alive due to enhanced outflow), while to the left Ophelia is being picked up by the trough. As we know from Katia for example, at the very beggining of extratropical transistion you can get an enhanced pressure gradiant forcing lower pressure and strengthening but not yet having an effect on the core.

The mechanics are no doubt complicated but with a moisture source to the south east, an upper high very near you and a front moving towards you, that is an exceptionaly moist environment to be in over warm seas.

[Somerset Squall]

Ophelia has strengthened further and has become the strongest storm of the season with intensity rising to 120kts and pressure falling to 940mb. This is quite impressive considering the hurricane is northeast of Bermuda, but SB describes very well the reasons for the additional unexpected intensification, and Ophelia is also over the waters of the Gulf Stream at present. Weakening should occur soon as Ophelia leaves these waters and shear begins to rise.

[Maitland]

I see there is some mention of Ophelia bringing high winds and rain to Scotland on Thursday. I wonder if there will be the media speculation that there was for Maria. All seemed a little over the top then.

[summer blizzard]

I see there is some mention of Ophelia bringing high winds and rain to Scotland on Thursday. I wonder if there will be the media speculation that there was for Maria. All seemed a little over the top then.

Ophelia's remains will indeed be in the system over the UK on thursday however extra-tropical transition will be much faster than Katia as evidenced by the 0C isotherm it brings with it.

[summer blizzard]

Ophelia is now post-Tropical.