6th October 2011 - Convective/storm Potential Discussion & Reports

[Nick F]

Heads up for Thursday. Pool of sub -30C air at 500mb moves in across northern Britain Thursday morning from the W/NW, so should be some lively showers with hail and thunder developing towards Northern Ireland and western coasts of NW England, N Wales and Scotland in the morning, as lapse rates steepen above the relatively warmer seas.

Some of these showers spreading inland on the strong northwesterly wind, perhaps the Cheshire Gap favoured. With the ground still warm from the recent heatwave across England and Wales, we may see sufficient low-level buoyancy for a few lively showers making it inland from the coast too. Though greatest risk of thunder looks to be towards the northwest coastal areas of Britain.

Lightning Wizard indicates both strong deep-layer shear and low-level shear overlapping instability across NW England and Wales, so perhaps a potential for one or two tornadoes too:

[Stuart]

Thanks for the head up Nick

[Backtrack]

Woohoo, finally some action for the North West of England!

[Aaron]

How the heck did I miss this!?

[ZONE 51]

Squall line went through around 4am, torrential, gusty and exciting, but very short time as was a thin line but it was impressive though!

looks as those some lightning about in North recently.

thundery interest through the day and into night maybe would expect thunderstorms as we have unstable air with negative lifted index in places and some CAPE, enhanced gusts due to convective activity, this creating more risk of damaging gusts, hail as we have very cold uppers air, certainly cold over the mountains! today is likely to feel cold compared to what has been, so take the coat! an interesting day to come for many areas.

Edited October 6, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Chris.R]

Had a torrential hail storm about half an hour ago accompanied by very gusty winds. The hail was quite small but loud against the windows. Hoping for some more later and maybe some thunder!

[gottolovethisweather]

Blitzortung showing several strikes around the south of the country.

Anybody confirm this?

Didn't have a great night's sleep so I wondered if there was a rumble or two, certainly windy at times.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Stuart]

Last Updated: 22:31 Wednesday, 5th October 2011

Valid: 00:00 Thursday, 6th October 2011 - 23:59 Thursday, 6th October 2011

Areas Affected:NW Britain, N Eire, NE Norfolk

Synopsis:A large area of low pressure centred across Norway will extend it's influence southward putting much of Britain in a much cooler north to northwesterly wind-flow through the day. Upper troughs will drift through during the day along with more organised occluded front. A ridge of high pressure will build from the south and west, particularly during the afternoon.

Discussion:

A cold pool aloft associated with synoptic scale upper trough will put most of northern Britain under an unstable atmosphere.

CAPE values generated from sea temperatures of around 200-300 j/kg along with ELTs sub -30C will translate west to east across the SLIGHT region during the day. Convection will likely come to an end through the afternoon across western parts of area with the chance of isolated thunder for NE Norfolk more likley late in the day/evening. LLS values will be suffient along with convergence boundaries to be able to produce some brief funnels, but DLS will be weak through the period due to being right in the base of the upper trough.

The main detractors from deep convection will be, A. a building Atlantic ridge, warming mid-layers through the afternoon and B. rather cool surface temperatures across much of Britain.

Main threats: isolated thunder, small hail and brief, generally weak funnels.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/125

[Nick F]

Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[weatherobsuk]

Just had a thundery shower pass nearby to the North heading west to east now going towards Sheffield across the Hope Valley. A couple of lightning strikes locally and hail shafts could be seen, thunder once every 3 minutes or so. So a relatively active cell but nothing too spectacular, can't complain though.

[Costa Del Fal]

Not one shower here today. Just a mild sunny day. Hope we dont see too much of this set up in Winter otherwise it will be a very boring one indeed!

Edited October 6, 2011 by Blizzards

[Robbie Garrett]

Hmmmm, EGKK 061520Z 27020G31KT 9999 VCTS SCT042 14/05 Q1011

How did that happen then? Thunderstorm in the Vicinity of London Gatwick.

[Aaron]

Rain and hail here..

[Isolated Frost]

Various rain showers in the afternoon, in the heavier ones, a lot of hail fell.

[Arnie Pie]

Looks like a couple of heavy cells in North Wales, could be heading our way

no rain as to yet....

[Nick F]

Hmmmm, EGKK 061520Z 27020G31KT 9999 VCTS SCT042 14/05 Q1011

How did that happen then? Thunderstorm in the Vicinity of London Gatwick.

No sferics shown south of London today on Atd, though may have been a passing shower.

All the storm action across N Wales and parts of N England this afternoon, along with Nern Eire and W Scotland ...

[Aaron]

Here comes the downpour.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not one shower here today. Just a mild sunny day. Hope we dont see too much of this set up in Winter otherwise it will be a very boring one indeed!

I dont want this setup in winter either, will be around 5C, and wet in the north midlands, while Scotland and high levels of England and Wales get lots of snow

[Staffordshire]

Some heavy PPN showing on the radar over here but it's dry???!!!

[TonyH]

Looks to have reached lichfield now?. Looks pretty heavy.

[A.J]

Yep, it was...and accompanied by some gusty winds...Rain has now passed through now

[Staffordshire]

Yeah it reached me about 5-10 minutes after I posted some preety strong gusts indeed aj

[Costa Del Fal]

A little rain here but it broke up and was a very thin band over us. Would rather it was still warm at this time of year as it is a bit too early for proper worthwhile cold. I dont like cold when it comes to nothing as it keeps people inside with no interest going on outside either weather wise.

[Sprites]

Plenty of lightning on the radio, its over the north sea though!, the Dutch have stolen our weather again..

[wimblettben]

No sferics shown south of London today on Atd, though may have been a passing shower.

All the storm action across N Wales and parts of N England this afternoon, along with Nern Eire and W Scotland ...

Yes we have also had some showers but no lightning activity as the sferics map clearly shows.