Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[kold weather]

The other thing to note is place that high pressure in the rightn place and your NOT going to get warm weather at all, I've seen multiple times parts of the UK get ICE DAYS from such synoptic set-ups. Of course it can go either way but to think it'll be mild and above average just because its settled.

[Backtrack]

Forecasts should not be dictated by preference, that should be known. Many people forecast snow and cold because they want it, I suspect that's what has happened with mr Madden.

Some forecast it because it happened last year.

Very few would dare forecast a mild winter because either a) it would receive backlash from the cold loving community, or People can't imagine a mild winter after the last three winters have featured significant cold.

I say this because realistically no one can forecast winter, it's just a little fun really (and that's all it can be)

And this is the exact reason the Met Office stopped issuing their winter forecasts. It just simply CANNOT be accurate.

[Jason T]

Forecasts should not be dictated by preference, that should be known. Many people forecast snow and cold because they want it, I suspect that's what has happened with mr Madden.

Some forecast it because it happened last year.

Very few would dare forecast a mild winter because either a) it would receive backlash from the cold loving community, or People can't imagine a mild winter after the last three winters have featured significant cold.

I say this because realistically no one can forecast winter, it's just a little fun really (and that's all it can be)

To be honest, i think there is a shock to the system to come,Official winter 2011/2012 starts on tuesday,With massive mild temps FOR this time of year,However in the States, Washington is about to experiance upto 20 cm of wet snow in the phase of a winter storm. Now i have never been brill at this out-put and data ,but do NOT believe we will have a mild winter.

Madden might seem in a league of his own for his forecast,However he has stated that our winter will start from the north/west and NOT the same as last.

To be truthful in another quest there are so many variant forecast's for winter 2011/2012, Its hard to believe what will and what won't,I am assuming a severe winter based on another very poor Summer,Why should this winter differ,From the last 4...Based on the seasonal output,To which has been ..,WELL crap. Either this winter will be bad,or next Summer going to be HOT and LONG,Which means in-tradition mild winter upto december,un-predictable january,Mild and Cold febuary,wierd March,Wet April,Improving through May (BANGING,SCORCHING HOT OLYMPIC SUMMER 2012).

However solar activity has been very low for along while, So do i base that the possibility of a mild winter is based on increased solar activity,Am i acting like a thicket(How many remarks will that get).

Bottom line for me this winter, VERY SEVERE, Compared to the last. I hope madden is right (BIASED) Yes However can anyone say for certain how the weather is going to be in 3 to 4 weeks time,Even through all Data and Output to which WELL can change pretty sudden.

SL

[Liam J]

Official winter 2011/2012 starts on tuesday

SL

Have I been asleep for the whole month of November?

[cyclonic happiness]

I think there are more colder than average winter being forecast because there hs been such a definate and highly noticeable change in the weather patterns over the last 3-4 years.

Remember us lot in say.........2006 sitting here, waiting for that massive easterly or northerly toppler to turn up in the FI end of the pub run (18z)?

And then all that happened we it stayed in FI and all we got were endless SW'erlies and mild.

We did get the odd northerly toppler, but that's about all we got!

But the past 3 winters have all had long cold spells (not just cold snaps, 3 days long) and some pretty severe, even record breaking cold events.

And the change has been so great that everyone knows something has happened with our weather, even people on the street, normal folk.

And the one thing they all seem to agree on, is that colder than average winter are now favoured over milder ones.

The key word is 'seem'.

So after a run of more or less 20 mild winters in a row and with this synoptic shift had having happened, why not go for a colder winter for that reason alone?

Personally, I think it has alot to do with the very low ice levels in the arctic buggering up the jet stream, making it buckle and slacken, so all that cold air is no longer bottled up and held by the raging furious jet of years gone by.

And also, In my opinion, there hasn't been any shift back towards the old 'even larger teapot' type synoptics that plagued the nineties and noughties, in fact, I think the new synoptics (post even larger teapot anyone?) are still evolving and intensifying.

Just look at the summer we've just had here in the CET zone? Wind the whole time from may until october, no rain, not much sun? weird weird weird! and heatwaves at equinoxes.!

Has anyone looked into a link with cold winter following exceptional hot and dry equinoxes?

[SP1986]

Personally, I'm not sure about that, I think the synoptics we have at the moment wouldn't be that far away from synoptics in 2006-2007. Lots of southwesterly and westerly influence. The last few Autumns haven't seen this level of persistent westerly orientated winds so I'm not sure this Autumn is reflective of a changing pattern towards one that would necessarily point to cold winters.

I don't really buy the whole "solar minimum = winter after winter of cold".. that simply won't happen even in a period of a solar minimum. What it will mean however is that the winters that are cold will stand out.

I don't believe the frequency of cold winters changes under solar minimum conditions, but I do believe the intensity of the cold in cold winters rises in period of solar minimum; at least from what limited data I've seen, even then there is no huge correlation it would seem.

besides 'mild winters' of an Atlantic type are typical for our climate, whereas cold continental winter are not typical but they do often occur at variable times throughout decades/centuries, I really can't see why there would be a long term change to that in our lifetimes.

[ZONE 51]

The freezing conditions that have blasted Britain are being blamed on a series of weather patterns that are bringing Arctic temperatures to much of western Europe, California and even Australia.

One of the main factors is a change in the position of the jet stream - the fast-moving current of air that moves from west to east, high in the atmosphere. A system of high pressure has forced the jet stream further south, allowing biting cold winds in from the north.

Changes in the jet stream's path can cause massive changes in weather conditions across the globe and may be why Australians are now shivering their way through summer and the current freezing conditions in California.

In a normal British winter - when conditions are mild and soggy - the jet stream lies over northern Europe, at an altitude of between 35,000 to 50,000 feet.

During these grey winters, Britain's prevailing winds come from the west and south west, and bring with them warm and moist air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. This year a high-pressure weather system over the Atlantic is blocking the jet stream’s normal path and forcing it to the north and south of Europe. The areas of high pressure act like stones in a stream - blocking the normal flow of milder air from the west and instead forcing colder air from the north down across the UK.

Here is an image depicting daily mean temperature anomalies around the world between 1st December and 20th December compared with the 30 year long term average between 1961 and 1990.

-----

Other weather patterns are also causing havoc across the may also be affecting the weather, such as the current in the tropical Pacific Ocean, called La Nina, which is disturbing the jetstream over the north Pacific and North America. A combination of our usual wet Atlantic weather systems striking these freezing cold fronts results in huge amounts of snowfall – and brings Britain grinding to a halt. A Met Office spokesman: ‘The problem is we are not getting the warmer Atlantic air that normally keeps our winters mild.’ ‘We can see that it is unseasonably warm over Canada and Greenland, this is where warm air has been diverted.’ He said that any change in the pressure over the Atlantic would need to last for several days before we would notice any change in the weather in Europe. Freezing-cold winters and milder winters tend to cluster in groups, as the jet stream changes its path.

Experts are still unsure why this is but suspect it may be related to the EL Nino weather system as well as changes in sea temperatures and solar activity.

With the oil spill this last Summer, I can't help but wonder how that might have effected the Gulf Loop Current, which effects the North Atlantic Current, which could be impacting the jet streams.

Jet Stream December 2010-http://pesn.com/2010/12/22/9501742_Crazy_Weather_Stalled_Ocean_Currents_Jet_Stream_Diversions/

Edited October 28, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

Personally, I'm not sure about that, I think the synoptics we have at the moment wouldn't be that far away from synoptics in 2006-2007. Lots of southwesterly and westerly influence. The last few Autumns haven't seen this level of persistent westerly orientated winds so I'm not sure this Autumn is reflective of a changing pattern towards one that would necessarily point to cold winters.

I don't really buy the whole "solar minimum = winter after winter of cold".. that simply won't happen even in a period of a solar minimum. What it will mean however is that the winters that are cold will stand out.

I don't believe the frequency of cold winters changes under solar minimum conditions, but I do believe the intensity of the cold in cold winters rises in period of solar minimum; at least from what limited data I've seen, even then there is no huge correlation it would seem.

besides 'mild winters' of an Atlantic type are typical for our climate, whereas cold continental winter are not typical but they do often occur at variable times throughout decades/centuries, I really can't see why there would be a long term change to that in our lifetimes.

Probably an unfair comparison, the Maunder Minimum saw frequent severe winters in Europe on a regular basis, with some very mild winters thrown in (Infact, the mildest winter on record was recorded right after the coldest). I'm sure the whole 'we're returning to a Maunder Minimum' thing is completely up for debate, and if Solar Cycle 25 never happens, then I'm sure the frequency of colder winters will increase, and as we all know the last 20 years have seen some incredibly mild winters which are NOT typical of Britain, which became much more frequent after 1987..

Edited October 29, 2011 by Aaron

[SP1986]

Of course, I mean mild winters in the sense of a comparison to the average winter of continental Europe, not the long very mild string of winters we have had from the late 80's onwards (which were as strong in 'severity' of mild as the cold winters/months of the last few years). I'm not convinced personally we are necessarily going into a cooling period with more frequent severe winters etc at the current time, however I do definitely think that within my lifetime, as has always been the case, I will see numerous harsh winters of varying degrees - there is little or no doubt about that and there is no doubt that cold winters with greater frequency will come back some time in the future.

[WorsleySnow]

Are any of the charts showing any signs of cooling down even out in FL?

[Isolated Frost]

I have my own theory that when Britain is undergoing economic hardship, instability, and social problems, we get our snowiest winters:

1946/47- after the war

1978/79- winter of discontent

1980's- mass unemployment, social inequality

2008-now- recession, unemployment

Of course 62/63 was cold but it wasn't really THAT snowy.

And the less snowy winters;

Late 50's, 60's, early 70's- relative boom in growth

1993/1994-2008- increased prosperity and growth

Of course some winters don't follow the theme, but it sure is an interesting pattern.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Are any of the charts showing any signs of cooling down even out in FL?

The only thing I can find is for temperatures to return to average values from next weekend onwards. This also ties in with the latest metoffice further outlook. GFS 6z finished with an easterly resulting from a Scandanavian high, nothing cold though. The previous run showed non of this and had a north westerly. I would take average temperatures at the minute though.

[Eskimo]

I have my own theory that when Britain is undergoing economic hardship, instability, and social problems, we get our snowiest winters:

1946/47- after the war

1978/79- winter of discontent

1980's- mass unemployment, social inequality

2008-now- recession, unemployment

Of course 62/63 was cold but it wasn't really THAT snowy.

And the less snowy winters;

Late 50's, 60's, early 70's- relative boom in growth

1993/1994-2008- increased prosperity and growth

Of course some winters don't follow the theme, but it sure is an interesting pattern.

Wasn't that snowy? I wasn't born around then but my dad said he recorded 3 months of snow never going below 4-8 inches

[Isolated Frost]

I guess it was- and is an exception to the rule. But not much snow fell after the original snows. It was the cold that kept the snow for such a long time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

february dosent seem to be that wintry anymore (well not down here) but was great in 90's, remember 2 days of continuous snow 22-23rd Feb 94

[recklessabandon]

I have my own theory that when Britain is undergoing economic hardship, instability, and social problems, we get our snowiest winters:

1946/47- after the war

1978/79- winter of discontent

1980's- mass unemployment, social inequality

2008-now- recession, unemployment

Of course 62/63 was cold but it wasn't really THAT snowy.

And the less snowy winters;

Late 50's, 60's, early 70's- relative boom in growth

1993/1994-2008- increased prosperity and growth

Of course some winters don't follow the theme, but it sure is an interesting pattern.

There has been some research into the relationship between economic output and climate, I do know for one James Lovelock has looked at this. I know this is slightly off-topic. Essentially in our carbon based economy boom times = lots of greenhouse gas output and particulate output, during recession this reduces relatively speaking.

The question is, what is the link, is it that because increased particulate output reflects sunlight, and the lag effect of this simply co-incides with our relatively rythmic boom/bust economy to cause a slightly cooler period during the recession periods or, is it because during boom times we output a relatively higher concentration of 'greenhouse gas' which results in relatively warmer periods?

As for this winter....lots of talk on some French websites predicting a very snowy season in the Alps - could this suggest that some in France are also predicting a more southerly tracking jet, bringing the conveyor of weather systems to their shores.....?

[Summer Sun]

Cold Start to Winter for Europe: Winter Forecast

The United Kingdom

Last year in the U.K., winter started quickly, with snow reaching as far south as London in November. This was a dramatic contrast to typical winters; Londoners typically don't see much snow. However last year, many locations had close to 300 mm (a foot) or more of snow.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert expects that precipitation totals will be close to normal this year for London. On average, the city gets around 140 mm (5.5 inches) of precipitation.

London won't be having a white winter. This year, London will have its share of precipitation, but temperatures will be warm enough that it should fall as rain. Rain will also fall farther north of the city, through northern England, and Scotland will get snow.

As for cold, Londoners will get a break from the bitterness they experienced last year. In December 2010, London temperatures were 4.2 degrees C (7.5 degrees F) below normal. This year, temperatures will hover around normal, around 5.6 degrees C (42 degrees F).

The warmer weather "will help to make for much less snow than what was seen last year over the U.K., and also a much later start to winter than was seen last year," stated Reppert.

Reppert expects warmer temperatures toward the end of winter.

(Correction: The article originally stated that London Heathrow reported "about 13 mm (half an inch) of snow during the winter of 2010-2011" but it was based on bad data. The Telegraph reported that "Heathrow received between 5 to 6 inches of snow.")

The maps they posted show temperatures above normal this winter, with snow and rain normal.

http://www.accuweath...cast-europe.asp

[Interitus]

I have my own theory that when Britain is undergoing economic hardship, instability, and social problems, we get our snowiest winters: 1946/47- after the war 1978/79- winter of discontent 1980's- mass unemployment, social inequality 2008-now- recession, unemployment Of course 62/63 was cold but it wasn't really THAT snowy. And the less snowy winters; Late 50's, 60's, early 70's- relative boom in growth 1993/1994-2008- increased prosperity and growth Of course some winters don't follow the theme, but it sure is an interesting pattern.

Sorry, I don't think there is any pattern there whatsoever. For example, early 70s relative boom in growth? The oil crisis, 3-day week, devaluation of the pound, 'stagflation', going cap in hand to the IMF etc

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Cold Start to Winter for Europe: Winter Forecast

The United Kingdom

Last year in the U.K., winter started quickly, with snow reaching as far south as London in November. This was a dramatic contrast to typical winters; Londoners typically don't see much snow. However last year, many locations had close to 300 mm (a foot) or more of snow.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert expects that precipitation totals will be close to normal this year for London. On average, the city gets around 140 mm (5.5 inches) of precipitation.

London won't be having a white winter. This year, London will have its share of precipitation, but temperatures will be warm enough that it should fall as rain. Rain will also fall farther north of the city, through northern England, and Scotland will get snow.

As for cold, Londoners will get a break from the bitterness they experienced last year. In December 2010, London temperatures were 4.2 degrees C (7.5 degrees F) below normal. This year, temperatures will hover around normal, around 5.6 degrees C (42 degrees F).

The warmer weather "will help to make for much less snow than what was seen last year over the U.K., and also a much later start to winter than was seen last year," stated Reppert.

Reppert expects warmer temperatures toward the end of winter.

(Correction: The article originally stated that London Heathrow reported "about 13 mm (half an inch) of snow during the winter of 2010-2011" but it was based on bad data. The Telegraph reported that "Heathrow received between 5 to 6 inches of snow.")

The maps they posted show temperatures above normal this winter, with snow and rain normal.

http://www.accuweath...cast-europe.asp

I read this yesterday and found it quite confussing to be honest. You can tell from how it is written that the forecaster is not from this part of the world. I suppose if a forecaster from here tried to write a US winter forecast it would probably sound as confussing. I do wish American's would realise that the UK is not just London, they're nearly as bad as some of the BBC/ITV forecasters lol.

Edited October 29, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[weathe20]

Did we have a record breaking max temp in November last year, the a record breaking min temp too?

[Aaron]

Many stations last November recorded their highest and lowest November temperatures within weeks of one another.

[weathe20]

Many stations last November recorded their highest and lowest November temperatures within weeks of one another.

Thought so, lots of people worried about the current model output for cold, but going by last Novembers UPs and DOWNs (temp) theres nothing to worry about!

[mcweather]

Thought so, lots of people worried about the current model output for cold, but going by last Novembers UPs and DOWNs (temp) theres nothing to worry about!

Couldn't agree more both november 2010 and 2009 were mild and often stormy but come December winter made its presence felt.

[Aaron]

Winter really arrived without warning in December 2009!

[Kay]

I totally agree GSL!!! They wouldnt take our weather forcasts for them to seriously, from this little island over the pond!!