Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[summer blizzard]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/32704-north-american-weather-usa-canada/page__pid__2151100__st__1580#entry2151100

ALL WINTER ADDICTS GET TO THE NYC THREAD, RECORD OCTOBER SNOW AND COLD EVENT IN PROGRESS FOR NEXT 6-8 HOURS. 6-12 INCHES EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURE WILL BE GONE IN THE HOUR (31f).

I don't actually think that December 2009 arrived without warning, November saw a record warm stratosphere for the time of year.

[Liam J]

GFS consistant in FI progging cold air to feed into SE Europe around the large Euro High, which coincidently is where Accuweather have predicted a very cold and snowy Winter.

Edited October 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Isolated Frost]

Nov 2010 really did surprise me with record high min temps. It wasn't a very mild start either- just very few quite mild days; I recorded a snow shower on the 8th.

[Snowstorm1]

Im very confident something has changed our weather patterns with various extreme weather occurring here and throughout the world I say we have got a great chance of another cold snowy winter ; personally I think its something to do with low sea ice levels which has effected the jet stream and therefore effected the weather patterns

[Isolated Frost]

How does that work Michael??

[Snowstorm1]

How does that work Michael??

Well in simple terms I think it means = less sea ice means more sunlight hitting the earth's waters which has a knock on effect to the jet stream which disrupts that and that is one of the main drivers for the weather - (awful explanation I know but someone mentioned it on here before and I fully agreed with it maybe somebody else will be able to give a better explanation) (only basic knowledge here :$ )

Edited October 29, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Liam J]

Im very confident something has changed our weather patterns with various extreme weather occurring here and throughout the world I say we have got a great chance of another cold snowy winter ; personally I think its something to do with low sea ice levels which has effected the jet stream and therefore effected the weather patterns

Extreme weather events have become less frequent in the UK over recent years. Last Winter we had a very cold period which occupied about 3/4 weeks out of one whole 3 month season, it was extreme while it lasted but the rest of Winter was shockingly boring which is unusual. Autumn and Winter are usually the most active months of the year with a whole variety of weather extremes on offer which I would normally look forward too but not over recent years unfortunately. I agree something has changed in the overall pattern but this has resulted in much more benign and uneventful weather patterns for the majority of the year when traditionally these times can be the most exciting periods.

Edited October 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Snowstorm1]

Extreme weather events have become less frequent in the UK over recent years. Last Winter we had a very cold period which occupied about 3/4 weeks out of one whole 3 month season, it was extreme while it lasted but the rest of Winter was shockingly boring which is unusual. Autumn and Winter are usually the most active months of the year with a whole variety of weather extremes on offer which I would normally look forward too but not over recent years unfortunately. I agree something has changed in the overall pattern but this has resulted in much more benign and uneventful weather patterns for the majority of the year when traditionally these times can be the most exciting periods.

This October is heading into an 'extreme' month category (yes a very dull uninteresting one)

Something is changing which is clear in my mind.

If we were getting months on end of average weather that would be much less encouraging for cold weather fans don't you think?

Does Anybody Remember Dec 2010, Apr 2011, Oct 2011?

That shows a staggering One in four chance at the moment of having an extreme month?

So something has changed...

Edited October 29, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Aaron]

I've noticed extreme months becoming more frequent - November 2009, January 2010, November 2010, December 2010, April 2011, September/October 2011.

[Isolated Frost]

I think it's all a blip personally.

The sunlight/jet stream seems all very James Madden-ist and I can't really take that theory seriously.

[Aaron]

James Madden is a newcomer and has blown everything out of proportion, the lack of sunspots theory affecting European winters has been around a lot longer then he has.

[Liam J]

I've noticed extreme months becoming more frequent - November 2009, January 2010, November 2010, December 2010, April 2011, September/October 2011.

I suppose extreme can cover a whole multitude of things, I was referring to severe weather events which cause disruption when they occur etc.

I remember Nov 2009 very well, Winter 2009/10 was nothing memorable for me, it was cold yes but I had no snowfall apart from the odd flurry.

[Summer Sun]

This October is heading into an 'extreme' month category (yes a very dull uninteresting one)

Something is changing which is clear in my mind.

If we were getting months on end of average weather that would be much less encouraging for cold weather fans don't you think?

Does Anybody Remember Dec 2010, Apr 2011, Oct 2011?

That shows a staggering One in four chance at the moment of having an extreme month?

So something has changed...

Something has certainly changed i agree it's not just affecting the UK either, Spain and Portugal have had very little rain for months, many parts of Europe (UK included) suffered a shocking summer.

Now if the 1 in 4 pattern continues then it would be Febuary, June, October next year an interesting thing to keep an eye on I think.

Cold weather just isn't happening so far nor is the Autumn storm season been very quiet this year and of course the East is rain starved and droughts are still in place.

Some thing has changed but what? Global Warming? Or just one of those years where records fall left right and centre?

[reef]

Extreme weather events have become less frequent in the UK over recent years. Last Winter we had a very cold period which occupied about 3/4 weeks out of one whole 3 month season, it was extreme while it lasted but the rest of Winter was shockingly boring which is unusual. Autumn and Winter are usually the most active months of the year with a whole variety of weather extremes on offer which I would normally look forward too but not over recent years unfortunately. I agree something has changed in the overall pattern but this has resulted in much more benign and uneventful weather patterns for the majority of the year when traditionally these times can be the most exciting periods.

Id have to disagree with that one. In the last five years we've seen many extremes and records broken. We had a record warm July, September and Autumn in 2006, the warmest April by quite some way in 2007 which was beaten again by the same margin in 2011. We had the second coldest December on record and coldest last week of November last year and now the warmest Spring ever and possibly a top 10 warmest Autumn (2nd warmest possible) sandwiching the coldest summer for 23 years.

It wasnt a suprise that the remainder of winter wasnt anything special after December, we live in the UK after all. Id suggest though that such a mild February after a very cold December in itself is one extreme to the other, even if the actual weather wasnt all that interesting in the second half of the winter.

[Methuselah]

I'm quite confident that something as dramatic as the recent loss of sea-ice must have some effect on our weather. As to what? Well that's another question.

[Summer Sun]

Latest CFS 3 monthly probability chart for what it's worth has gone 35% above normal from December to Febuary

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

The Monthly charts are slightly different with only Febuary above normal at 45% for England, Northern Ireland and Wales 35% above for Scotland

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I have just discovered the weather feature on Google earth. Does anyone know if there is a key for the precipitation it shows? I've also noticed it shows current temperatures as well as cloud cover. I was quite impressed with this free feature and just thought I'd share this with everyone. Appologies if you were already aware of this feature.

[Liam J]

They were just temperature extremes between seasons which doesn't necessarily mean exciting weather to me, very interesting but quite boring on the face of it.

I take your point though we have had extremes, the seasons are a little messed up at the moment with the warmest and driest months occurring either side of summer.

Well as long as the record breaking cold knows when to arrive (December - February) then I will remain happy

Edited October 29, 2011 by Liam J

[bobbydog]

actually nothing really has changed. take any autumn/winter period over the last, say, 200 years. i'll bet you could match a similar months weather patterns which have no bearing on the following month for any given year. i remember, for my location at least, an average october, a cold, frosty, foggy november (at least around bonfire night) then a dull mild wet december. the february that followed was 1991....

(btw i missed out jan as i cant remember it!)

Edited October 29, 2011 by bobbydog

[cyclonic happiness]

Id have to disagree with that one. In the last five years we've seen many extremes and records broken. We had a record warm July, September and Autumn in 2006, the warmest April by quite some way in 2007 which was beaten again by the same margin in 2011. We had the second coldest December on record and coldest last week of November last year and now the warmest Spring ever and possibly a top 10 warmest Autumn (2nd warmest possible) sandwiching the coldest summer for 23 years.

It wasnt a suprise that the remainder of winter wasnt anything special after December, we live in the UK after all. Id suggest though that such a mild February after a very cold December in itself is one extreme to the other, even if the actual weather wasnt all that interesting in the second half of the winter.

That the weather we unintersting after december to me, just goes to show how the weather has changed.

It wasn't warm or anything, the main thing that stood out was the lack of rain and gales in the back end of winter (dead Atlantic) and we haven't really seen much since, well not this end of the country.

It all fits into the new pattern the weather IS in, I really don't understand how anyone can say otherwise??

actually nothing really has changed. take any autumn/winter period over the last, say, 200 years. i'll bet you could match a similar months weather patterns which have no bearing on the following month for any given year. i remember, for my location at least, an average october, a cold, frosty, foggy november (at least around bonfire night) then a dull mild wet december. the february that followed was 1991....

(btw i missed out jan as i cant remember it!)

January here in 1991 was anticyclonic gloom for around 2 weeks before the cold spell.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anticyclonic gloom never too bad, usually means a blocked pattern, and a dead Atlantic, miles better than a raging SW wind and rain 12C type setup, and as in 1991 can lead to cold

[Isolated Frost]

I have to disagree ch; to say the atlantic is dead is bizarre. Lows can easily cross towards the UK- the jet is as strong but has simply pushed south MORE frequently in recent winters. Ex ts Katia reached us, not a very dead atlantic... We've simply had a stronger block against the atlantic and heights are usually higher in the atlantic with fewer deep lows.

It's not unusual at all- some 'forecasters' are just being sensationalist and this is playing right into the unfortunately gullible public. I expect that within the next few winters, we will see one or more being low-dominated.

Patterns are shaped by 20-30 years of weather, not 3.

[cyclonic happiness]

I have to disagree ch; to say the atlantic is dead is bizarre. Lows can easily cross towards the UK- the jet is as strong but has simply pushed south MORE frequently in recent winters. Ex ts Katia reached us, not a very dead atlantic... We've simply had a stronger block against the atlantic and heights are usually higher in the atlantic with fewer deep lows.

It's not unusual at all- some 'forecasters' are just being sensationalist and this is playing right into the unfortunately gullible public. I expect that within the next few winters, we will see one or more being low-dominated.

Patterns are shaped by 20-30 years of weather, not 3.

If you were this end of the country, you'd know what I mean.

We've litterally had months and months where there has been 'no' weather, it's just been cool, cloudy, dry and with a constant strong breeze.

Me and everyone I've spoken to (and I've spoke to alot of people) say that they've never known weather like it......especially the drought.

When you sit here week after week watching rain bands die out as they cross the Welsh mountains and never reach us, you'd understand.

We've also only had 3 showers.....yes 3!!! this whole year, by showers I mean proper heavy cumulonimbus the lack of these I see as a marker point to the Atlantic being dead, at least in this part of Blighty.

And you may say "patterns are shaped by 20-30 years" but 'trends' are spotted after as few as 3 years, I'd say that this winter will be telling and IF it follows the pattern, would you be willing to say that there has/may be a climatic change for the British isles?

Edited October 29, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[Summer Sun]

lol at what PWS have posted in the PWS comment

Wintry Conditions

Winter may well show its hand over the mountains of Scotland during the first week of November, but there are still no indications as of yet to point to a November where we are knee deep in snow. Late November and during the opening weeks of December still look firm candidates to see something of a wintry scenario but apart from that, mild and wet conditions will continue to dominate. It's quite maddening to think that there is perhaps something we haven't seen here at PWS to suggest otherwise?

Jonathan Powell

Senior Weather Forecaster

Sunday October 30th 2011

Another pop at James Madden for what he said November would bring.

Edited October 29, 2011 by Gavin D

[Isolated Frost]

If this winter contains one or more extreme month(s) with temperatures severely below average, I may consider a different look- but imo it's been about the synoptics.

And yes I've saw many a band crossing the welsh mountains and just vanishing as it reaches the w midlands- very weird.

And you may judge the atlantic strength by cb cells and heavy rain, but I most certainly associate the atlantic by stratus and drizzle at times- at least the tropical maritime. And any Pm incursions (which have been PAINFULLY missed this year!) generally give sunshine and convective showers.

And Gavin, LOL! Respect in PWS rises from 1% to about 50% (well, at least humour-wise).