Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[cheshire snow]

Oh dear this thread has degenerated into the moaning about winter thread it appears.

I did say back in November how by the end of December we would likely see a plethora of posts from people saying its a rubbish winter so far, simply because we haven't seen a repeat of Dec 2010. This December has been preety average it has to be said and in Scotland quite a wintry month. People's expectations have been raised markedly thanks to the last three winters. I will keep on saying there is tons of mileage in winter 11/12 yet and the second half of the winter is likely to offer much colder and snowier weather. The second half of the winter on average is much more conducive for cold and snowy than the first half - the last three years have made us question this, but it still remains the case as the atlantic on average tends to be far quieter in the second half of winter than the first half.

Spot on totally agree...

C.S

[feb1991blizzard]

I know there are a lot of factors involved and i am certainly not saying winter is over but if you go on the NOAA monthly composites page select all Januarys and all februarys with an ENSO signal of less than -0.8 (which it looks likely to be for the rest of this winter looking at the ensemble spread), the 500mb anomaly charts dont look very promising.

[AderynCoch]

The famous winter of 46/47 (which my dad always tell me about) didn't start until the 21st January. The first half of the winter was unusually mild, apparently.

It was rather cold actually, just not significantly so.

It did turn very mild for a brief period in mid-January before the proper cold set in.

Edited January 1, 2012 by AderynCoch

[Snowangel-MK]

A Wintry & Colder Feel To The Start Of The New Year 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXCv_zN32G4&feature=uploademail

according to James Madden !

Edited January 1, 2012 by MKsnowangel

[leicsnow]

At least he's mentioning some milder interludes this time instead of just saying cold snow cold snow. Although I don't see how it's a "cold start" to the year!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

IMO this chap has lost all credability and is just clutching at straws. It wasn't that long ago that he was warning the elderly to start preparing for a long hard winter!

As much as I would like us to go back into a 'little ice-age' i just don't see it happening.

I was lucky enough to see snow in Keswick on Friday 16th but am feeling very doubtful that i'll see any in my home county :-(

[Peter H]

I know there are a lot of factors involved and i am certainly not saying winter is over but if you go on the NOAA monthly composites page select all Januarys and all februarys with an ENSO signal of less than -0.8 (which it looks likely to be for the rest of this winter looking at the ensemble spread), the 500mb anomaly charts dont look very promising.

Another problem is that most of Euope also appears to be very mild at the moment. Even Scandanavia has temperatures well above freezing, which is surely unusual at this time of year. About the only place that is remotely cold appears to be Russia (Moscow for example). so even if we do get an Easterly or North Easterly it's going a few days for the really cold air to get here.

Still,you never know.

I notice the Met. Office are now forcasting high pressure and something a bit colder towards the end of January !

Edited January 1, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

according to James Madden !

Exacta weather were the same people forcasting a big freeze in October, and then in November. Utterly silly headlines which strangely even managed to make it onto the front pages of the Daly Mail and Express,and prompting our local Sainsburys to sell snow scoops at the start of November.

Personally, I wouldn't listen to a word these guys say.Who's paying them to come out with such complete and utter drivel ?

[summer blizzard]

We've had a wee skiff of snow at the start of December !

Here in Jordanstown Co. Antrim !

Well, you never know.

The famous winter of 46/47 (which my dad always tell me about) didn't start until the 21st January. The first half of the winter was unusually mild, apparently.

I do not want to get in to a rant again as this is a subject that annoys me however December 1946 was a full 2C below average and there was about a week of above temperatures in January.

Saying what you said is akin to saying that December 1962 was mild until boxing Day.

[Eugene]

lol i couldn't help but check in model discussion and yes i was right nothing for prolonged cold on the charts, i dont know why they put themselves through it to be honest, best thing to do is just go and do other things like aaron and i and not put yourself through the torture.

I did go to GFS T+384 hrs and its exactly like the pattern we have now by the time we get any anticyclonic weather it will be too late for cold inversions by day, i am desperate just for a HP cell to be centred over the UK but when we do if we do it will be too late for winter daytime cold as february it can start to feel warm under such conditions, you need a really cold feed unlike in december and january.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Eugene

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

lol i couldn't help but check in model discussion and yes i was right nothing for prolonged cold on the charts, i dont know why they put themselves through it to be honest, best thing to do is just go and do other things like aaron and i and not put yourself through the torture.

I did go to GFS T+384 hrs and its exactly like the pattern we have now by the time we get any anticyclonic weather it will be too late for cold inversions by day, i am desperate just for a HP cell to be centred over the UK but when we do if we do it will be too late for winter daytime cold as february it can start to feel warm under such conditions, you need a really cold feed unlike in december and january.

Thats right Eugene inversion cold is best late Nov and through Dec and early Jan.The days are are getting longer now all the time and we can clearly see the pattern for the next 10 to 14 days and that pattern will not be in any shape or form a cold one.

The Euro high and Greenland PV have absolutely ruined Nov Dec and at least half of January and despite what im reading in the model thread i would not be suprised if it took care of the rest of Jan!

I lose interest from mid Feb as im a fan of the deep cold extremes,not the overnight accumulations gone by dinner time due to the stronger sun scenario.I recall end of Nov Dec cold spells from the last couple of years what a lovely sight picking my son up from school at 3.15 with the red sun lowering from the sky and deep thick snowcover,tremendous scenes and ones that will live with me forever!

[Peter H]

Saying what you said is akin to saying that December 1962 was mild until boxing Day.

Well,according to Mike Tullet's daily summery of the winter of 62/63, December 62 was pretty aveage:

http://myweb.tiscali...62-63/index.htm

I'm just saying you can never tell with the British winter.

However, I'm not optomistic of any severe or prolonged cold weather this winter.

Another snowless one, in my opinion, especially given the fact that Europe is so mild as well

Here's the synoptic chart from December 8th 1962. Not a lot different from January 2nd 2012:

http://www.mikett.pl...cember/8dec.jpg

Edited January 2, 2012 by Peter H

[leicsnow]

Thats right Eugene inversion cold is best late Nov and through Dec and early Jan.The days are are getting longer now all the time and we can clearly see the pattern for the next 10 to 14 days and that pattern will not be in any shape or form a cold one.

The Euro high and Greenland PV have absolutely ruined Nov Dec and at least half of January and despite what im reading in the model thread i would not be suprised if it took care of the rest of Jan!

I lose interest from mid Feb as im a fan of the deep cold extremes,not the overnight accumulations gone by dinner time due to the stronger sun scenario.I recall end of Nov Dec cold spells from the last couple of years what a lovely sight picking my son up from school at 3.15 with the red sun lowering from the sky and deep thick snowcover,tremendous scenes and ones that will live with me forever!

Well I had almost a week at home from school in February 2009 due to deep accumulations of snow? Whilst in winters 2009/10 or 2010/11 my college didn't close at all.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well I had almost a week at home from school in February 2009 due to deep accumulations of snow? Whilst in winters 2009/10 or 2010/11 my college didn't close at all.

Yes there are always exceptions and i did say fromMID Feb did i not?

[North-Easterly Blast]

I do not want to get in to a rant again as this is a subject that annoys me however December 1946 was a full 2C below average and there was about a week of above temperatures in January.

Saying what you said is akin to saying that December 1962 was mild until boxing Day.

Exactly. Whilst it is true that the significant cold "centerpiece" of the winter 1946-47 didn't set in until January 21st ish, the first half of that winter, I just do not understand why, is often looked at through rose coloured glasses re how mild it was. It actually only became very mild for a few days around mid-January before the prolonged cold set in, yet people often say that the first half of the winter was very mild, when apart from a few days in mid Jan, it was rather cold actually, just not significantly so like the latter part of that winter was.

December 1962 was also rather cold actually up to the 23rd, just not significantly so. The first week saw a cold Rex block giving surface cold, and then mostly average to cold zonality during the middle two weeks.

[stewfox]

Yes there are always exceptions and i did say fromMID Feb did i not?

Feb 86 comes to mind a bitterly cold month

However agree I wouldnt want a cold snap to start too late because of that pesky sun.

Average winters day today, I think many forget what average is.

[leicsnow]

Feb 86 comes to mind a bitterly cold month

However agree I wouldnt want a cold snap to start too late because of that pesky sun.

Average winters day today, I think many forget what average is.

Makes February 1986 even more exceptional IMO, with sub-freezing maxima even occuring in the last third of the month in my location.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Tellow

[Peter H]

Makes February 1986 even more exceptional IMO, with sub-freezing maxima even occuring in the last third of the month in my location.

Yep, same at this location (Belfast NI)

Hardly any snow though, even if it was the third coldest February of the 20th century, if I remember correctly !

[summer blizzard]

Exactly. Whilst it is true that the significant cold "centerpiece" of the winter 1946-47 didn't set in until January 21st ish, the first half of that winter, I just do not understand why, is often looked at through rose coloured glasses re how mild it was. It actually only became very mild for a few days around mid-January before the prolonged cold set in, yet people often say that the first half of the winter was very mild, when apart from a few days in mid Jan, it was rather cold actually, just not significantly so like the latter part of that winter was.

December 1962 was also rather cold actually up to the 23rd, just not significantly so. The first week saw a cold Rex block giving surface cold, and then mostly average to cold zonality during the middle two weeks.

Spot on.

[Eugene]

I think we are in for another very warm year, this winter will be very mild so we have a head start with warm sea temps and warm soil temps, this winter reminds me of the awful winter of 1988/89 and the summer that followed that had some hot spells before the proper hot summer of 1990, i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

[Snowstorm1]

I think we are in for another very warm year, this winter will be very mild so we have a head start with warm sea temps and warm soil temps, this winter reminds me of the awful winter of 1988/89 and the summer that followed that had some hot spells before the proper hot summer of 1990, i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

What a load of tosh come on ! :')

[Evening thunder]

Yep, Someone's getting rather ahead of themselves here..

I think we are in for another very warm year, this winter will be very mild so we have a head start with warm sea temps and warm soil temps, this winter reminds me of the awful winter of 1988/89 and the summer that followed that had some hot spells before the proper hot summer of 1990, i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

Ok this post is probably purely a wind up post... Next winter's over everyone! Oh well better luck in 2013/2014.

Does this go down as the earliest 'winter's over' post for winter 2012/13? :lol:

[Weather-history]

i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

Twaddle

[VillagePlank]

http://www.monbiot.com/2012/01/02/polar-opposites/

[Ladyofthestorm]

I wish the weather would settle downa little, I havent seen the sun AT ALL for two weeks, as its been constant wind rain, ice, sleet and so forth, it is really one of the worst winters in terms of horrid weather we have ever seen here on Skye. I had to laugh at Boars link, I could have told them that one in October.... hang on..I did!!!!

What I want and need right now is for a huge area of high pressure to settle down over the top of us. Now whats the chances of that?