Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Coast]

Beginning of February is certainly looking good for the white stuff countrywide but it needs a few more days to confirm this. Look out for the charts on Sunday!

Maybe even later next week for us? Fingers crossed!

[Liam J]

Interesting Weatheronline week ahead forecast - bitterly cold with a risk of snow.

http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120120

Edited January 20, 2012 by Liam J

[cheshire snow]

Interesting Weatheronline week ahead forecast - bitterly cold with a risk of snow.

http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120120

Yes Liam,i was just going to post the same headline,correct me if i am wrong dont they use the GFS OZ for

there dialy updates?

C.S

[Heisenberg]

great charts on the model thread. Looks like the waiting might be over. Still lots could change but the next 36/48 hours should cement the general, but details could still change.

Next Thursday seems like the day it might all begin (for some).....Time, as usual, will tell. All eyes down for the next runs....

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

Fingers crossed for the above....desperate to see some white stuff !!!

[keithlucky]

Mark Vogan winter coming vengence

Given the persistency in models TANKING the AO and NAO from Jan 26 onwards combined with a strong stratospheric warming event over top of the pole and the shear persistency in a strong positive AO/NAO during December suggests not only a colder period looming for N.A, Europ, Asia, but I believe we're heading for a significant and tough next 30-day period of winter.

I predict, that during February A MAJOR, POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING ARCTIC OUTBREAK will impact a large portion of the USA while the UK, as forecasted way back in summer, may take a run at the severity of cold experienced last year with heavy snows laying down a near nationwide blanket of snow which could arrive before January is out, this I believe could be followed an an arctic high and significant cold spell.

Keep in mind folks that although winter's worst was in late November and throughout December last year, winter was done for the season afterwards. Like I've stated previously, 2009-10 was a worse winter than last year despite a much colder period. how? though the worst was seen between Dec 18-Jan 10 in 09-10, we saw repeat heavy snow and cold spells during Feb-March which made for a worse winter when combining the three meteorological winter months (Dec-Feb).

Reasons for my bold for cold forecast!

We've seen a modest strat warming event which allowed weakening westerlies and the release of arctic air into the USA, eastern Europe and eastern Asia but this, albeit a much colder outbreak than models anticipated was restricted by a weak 'negative' AO and a barely neutral NAO. Basically, the full potential was far from met given the amount of time this arctic air has been allowed to build, however. latest modelling for the 10mb strat levels shows full warming at 10mb over the pole. (see graphic below)

Note the weak warming with lots of blue either side. However, notice the full warming at the end of this chart!

This tells me the arctic reservoir is set to spill southwards whilst blocking highs reach and replace this frigid air over the pole. What backs this idea up?

Note the below AO/NAO charts BOTH show a tanking deep into negative territory!

Charts courtesy of policlimate.com

[syed2878]

Have any of u guys seen mark vogan's latest fb post? He thinks uk wide snow by the end of next week. I'm starting to think his becoming another j.m. He is also saying he has got the forecast rite for mid to late month.

[Froze were the Days]

Unfortunately he keeps updating his forecast and hasn't been right yet for this winter, initially he was looking at a colder spell setting in after xmas towards the new year and I believe then updated it towards mid January - I can't help thinking he is cold biased.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hopefully one good thing to come out of this winter will be the discrediting of some of the charlatan weather sites whose forecasts appear to be set up simply as an attempt to attract the attention of certain less than reputable newspapers http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/a31upd.pdf

I'm not sure of PWS, at least it was a vaguely more credible sounding forecasting, though quite wide of the mark in spite of its vagueness http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/PWS-Comment-Extra---Winter-2011-12.php

[damianslaw]

GP's forecast seems very much still on the money - he stresses it wouldn't be until the end of Jan before we saw a weakening of the PV and more favourable blocking to our east - this advancing west as we enter February with the trough forced to dig SE into europe setting us up for a potentially very cold month. We are reaching a critical stage in the winter now and probably have a window of about a week before we can say whether his forecast is likely to verify.

In terms of the overall winter - a very cold February would help to change peoples' perceptions of the winter as a whole, but it is still far from certain whether winter 11/12 will go down as a damp squib by cold snow lovers, or be remembered for its decent cold in February. So far it has for the vast majority been a damp squib, here we have recorded a couple of mornings with snow cover only and there up until today a whole calandar month went by with barely a dusting of snow on the top of Helvellyn - absolutely shocking for mid winter - I've known many a May with more snow on Helvellyn than has been the case this past month! However, the start of the season was excellent for snow on the fells, record levels by the 18th Dec.. a very strange turn of events...

Edited January 20, 2012 by damianslaw

[feb1991blizzard]

What i dont understand is the Met Office mention that its atlantic dominated or potent cold until mid jan, if it wasnt for that then i would at least be thinking that if we fail this time we may get further opportunities down the line, with teleconnections favouring northern blocking, i also dont see how a third possibility is not an option, anticyclonic dross, but again this isnt like last jan and feb, we have a warming strat and weak PV so possibilities it might migrate somewhere favourable down the line.

[Eugene]

A continuing trend on GFS 00Z of HP taking over our weather for a pretty prolonged period, i did say the other day i had a big hunch HP would take over end of Jan

Temps pretty cold by day with air frosts at night and dry

[syed2878]

Morning guys. Is there a pdf version of this winter forecast? If there is can 1 of u give me the link plz. Thx.

[Peter H]

Interesting Weatheronline week ahead forecast - bitterly cold with a risk of snow.

http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120120

The forcasted "bitterly" cold spell at the end of next week has been downgraded, yet again by weatheronline this morning:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead

The Met. Office are still hedging their bets though. Notice they didn't update their 15 day forcast until quite late in the day. They're now saying the prospect of a cold spell is equaly in probability to the westerlies predominating:

Thereafter there is considerable uncertainty for the final few days of the outlook period, with an almost equal probability of a more changeable weather type returning, or much colder conditions developing across the UK, with snow in places and widespread frost.

[nanu]

well id go by the saying if you had a late summer then you will most prob have a late winter... we did have a late summer (29c in october) and as far as i can see winter has'nt happend down here yet!!

[Froze were the Days]

Not sure if the METO forecast of 50/50 scenario will go 1 of 2 ways for the start of February, Easterlies or the typical south westerlies? just been running through my archives and have come across a couple of Februarys that followed mildish Decembers and Januarys. Archives have shown the UK have largely been under the influence of fairly stagnent area of HP or strong ridge from the Continent or Scandanavia and never 'tapped' into the source of cold air, the latest GFS looks similar and to a degree even the ECM, 2003 was an example which had a CET fractionally below normal. So to sum up that the weather can go 2 ways is largely incorrect, but wouldn't be at all be suprised to see the jet stream run out of steam or be displaced to our north or partly south but this doesn't mean we will be effected by cold weather. Only a thought.

Edited January 21, 2012 by Froze were the Days

[Summer Sun]

Latest from WeatherOnline

Month ahead - January 21, 2012

Valid from 31/01 to 27/02 2014

Winter on the way?

Issued: Saturday 21st January 2012

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

It is one of those occasions when I somehow I'd wished I'd remained under the duvet this morning as I'd have missed the deadline for compiling this forecast and although still being in trouble with 'the boss' for being late in filing it, I'd let myself 'off the hook' by not having to make a commitment on which way I believe this pattern is about to 'jump'?

Winter 2011-12 was never going to be a replay of last year, although many expected and anticipated that it would be, for me I have to say that it has been somewhat of a 'disappointment' in terms of interesting 'activity' or characteristic seasonal conditions so far, that however may be about to alter. Perhaps this winter could be a 'mirror image' of last year, the coldest conditions 'bunched up' in the final 'statistical meteorological month' rather than the first in 2011-12?

The dilemma at the moment is that all the guns are primed for a 'salvo' of intensely cold polar air to come southwards into continental Europe, whether this gets into the UK is the critical factor and is dependent upon a build of pressure which is expected to take place through the next week to ten days, an easterly flow would see this flooding across the British Isles and when compared to recent temperatures a dramatic alteration is fortunes, the determination of the actual wind direction through this period will be crucial to this forecasts viability.

26/01/12

The short term sees conditions dominated by a west to northwesterly flow, some rain, some showers and some drier weather for all the UK. Temperatures although 'reasonable' at first looks set to be declining away, some more general outbreaks of rain and strong winds taking the edge of the benefit of this, as the period closes it looks as if a potentially major change in fortunes could occur. A wet and windy period is indicated for all areas crossing from the west, followed by a blustery and increasingly cool regime and becoming colder later.

27/01/12 - 05/02/12

It'll be around this date that high pressure should begin to take control of the overall pattern, the location of its development crucial for the importation of colder air becoming entrenched over central Europe.

Low pressure should be shunted away, taking with any remaining remnants of showery activity plaguing the UK, the whole of the country becoming largely dry, settling into a lengthy spell of quiet, mid-winter anticyclonic conditions. Winds will for the most part be light to variable in nature through the life of this high pressure, a recipe for the associated problems and benefits of mid-winter anticyclonic weather. Mist, fog and frosty conditions widespread overnight, clearing slowly in most areas to bright and or sunny but cold conditions, although in prone spots this will no doubt persist making it cold and dull, hence feeling bitterly cold.

With the aforementioned dilemma in mind, as the high pressure centre drifts and inevitably shifts its position, 'a watch' will have to be maintained for a strengthening or development of any easterly component to the flow, this potentially will threaten much colder air being drawn into the UK from off the continent and perhaps some wintry weather for the south.

06/02/12 - 09/02/12

Conditions look set to alter here, a change to rather more unsettled weather being 'flagged up' as the influence of high pressure declines away and low pressure edges into the UK, however it remains on the cold side, therefore this transition may potentially be quite 'messy'?

A potentially wintry component to any precipitation at first will diminish later as generally less cold air moves through all areas from off the Atlantic courtesy of low pressure transiting the UK, outbreaks of rain for all areas followed by brighter showery conditions and a flow from the northwest.

10/02/15 - 15/02/12

Rather showery across most areas at first, low pressure edging away to be followed by rise in pressure from the west. Showers affecting all areas at first, some wintry over northern higher ground will die away, mainly broken cloud with brighter conditions establishing nationwide as a developing anticyclone to the west builds across the UK. The overnight problems of frost and fog return. The hint that once again, high pressure could become a large and persistent feature.

Simon & Capn Bob

http://www.weatheron...ma&DAY=20120121

[Peter H]

Well, nothing at all on RTE's weekly forecast about any prolonged or severe cold spell. In fact, next weekend would appear to be increasingly mild and settled.

The BBC's monthly outlook tomorrow might be worth looking at.

[leicsnow]

It's looking increasing likely that many will have experienced a completely snowless winter (excluding me, thankfully), whether it be no lying snow or indeed no falling snow.

[Peter H]

I see the BBC has now jumped on the band wagon and are indicating considerable uncertainty in their long range forecasts.

It'll be interesting to see how things pan out over the next couple of weeks.

[Summer Sun]

Winter so far in Darlington has been an unusual so far the only recorded snow fall I got lasted just over 1 minute in December as for lying snow non for over a year now.

[Cwmbran Eira]

It's looking increasing likely that many will have experienced a completely snowless winter (excluding me, thankfully), whether it be no lying snow or indeed no falling snow.

I tend to agree. We had a few mm of slush pre Christmas. Very poor.

The models are always showing potential but keep pushing it further and further away. I'm personally not interested in cold/snowy weather after Feb.

It was always very unlikely to have another cold one. Although it dosen't have to be a cold average to have a few snowy days.

I guess we have a few weeks of frustrating model watching left to take us to the end of Feb. I for one would be surprised to see anything significant in terms of cold. I hope I'm wrong

[Mapantz]

It's looking increasing likely that many will have experienced a completely snowless winter (excluding me, thankfully), whether it be no lying snow or indeed no falling snow.

Me included. But that's nothing unusual here. I didn't see any snow from 1995 to 2009, although i love snow, i don't really get that disappointed about it due to the lack of it in the first place.

[feb1991blizzard]

This is do or die now. eyes down in half an hour, we desperately need some good runs, lets hope Matt Hugo has some good news in the morning and then lets hope thats a precursor to the 30 dayer, but certainly some good blocking scenarios much needed tonight, or i really feel thats likely to spell the end.

[Radiating Dendrite]

This is do or die now. eyes down in half an hour, we desperately need some good runs, lets hope Matt Hugo has some good news in the morning and then lets hope thats a precursor to the 30 dayer, but certainly some good blocking scenarios much needed tonight, or i really feel thats likely to spell the end.

What I fail to understand is why so much trust is placed in the ECM 32 dayer.

Is it not just like the CFS in that respect, likely to throw up a load of dog excrement past day 6?