Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

[Backtrack]

People- Have a butchers at the ECM 192 chart at 850 level over the states- I never seen cold that widespread or deep-

S

Indeed Steve, you can see it in my post above. That would CRIPPLE the USA.

[kold weather]

FWIW ECM suggests backedge snow at 168hrs from that front as it clears away, probably not as good as the GFS which would produce settling snow even to lower levels for a time, but for higher ground it suggests some settling.

[Daniel Miller]

Out of interest, what would that sort of cold deliver to the US? Also, Could that have any effect on our weather?

[January Snowstorm]

People- Have a butchers at the ECM 192 chart at 850 level over the states- I never seen cold that widespread or deep-

S

Greenland & iceland also Steve

Remarkable for this early in the year

What does it all mean though for us, longterm ?

I think being honest nobody knows!!

[Jason T]

People- Have a butchers at the ECM 192 chart at 850 level over the states- I never seen cold that widespread or deep-

S

WoW Steve, That will cause severe problems through-out. Why is the temp dropping that severe in such short time.

[kold weather]

Greenland & iceland also Steve

Remarkable for this early in the year

What does it all mean though for us, longterm ?

I think being honest nobody knows!!

It means you have a rampant PV that is all guns blazing...pretty much the opposite of what you want for long term cold JS! We are being SO lucky when it comes to getting this set-up right now, with a PV this strong it could be so much worse! So I'm pretty happy with the output tonight even if it does give me 0% chance of snow, just getting something seasonal will do given how tragic the other factors are right now aloft.

With such a strong PV, you will from time to time get these huge outpourings of cold if you can get a very brief amplification of the jet. The only worry is such a alrge outburst would simply send the jet into hyperdrive and we'll feel the end results.

[Harsh Climate]

People- Have a butchers at the ECM 192 chart at 850 level over the states- I never seen cold that widespread or deep-

S

At 216h -20 uppers reach Texas! :o Unbelievable chart!

Edited December 1, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[If Wishes made Weather]

Really considering the strat and other teleconnective indicators at the moment, the prospects for cool weather over the next week or so are really as good as it gets and far better than we could hope for. As noted, the question is the high pressure build from the Azores and what that means for us.

[feb1991blizzard]

FWIW ECM suggests backedge snow at 168hrs from that front as it clears away, probably not as good as the GFS which would produce settling snow even to lower levels for a time, but for higher ground it suggests some settling.

I think whether people think the ECM or GFS is better to be honest depends on whether your working on the assumption that if the H500 and SLP charts shown on the GFS verifys in its entirety that the PPN chart also will, if you are then the GFS is unquestionably better, if your not then its debatable.

[nick sussex]

FWIW ECM suggests backedge snow at 168hrs from that front as it clears away, probably not as good as the GFS which would produce settling snow even to lower levels for a time, but for higher ground it suggests some settling.

Yes but the ECM is less likely to be overdoing the cold than the GFS.

The temperature gradient on the ECM looks far more condusive to the S word, I wasn't going to mention snow you know how risky that is in here! I chickened out by just saying an active cold front !!!

Looking at how they phase that trough, the cleaner phase is the ECM, at this timeframe though it could still go pearshaped considering the uncertainties regarding low pressure in the eastern USA.

[Eskimo]

Here comes the Ice age!

[weathe20]

It means you have a rampant PV that is all guns blazing...pretty much the opposite of what you want for long term cold JS! We are being SO lucky when it comes to getting this set-up right now, with a PV this strong it could be so much worse! So I'm pretty happy with the output tonight even if it does give me 0% chance of snow, just getting something seasonal will do given how tragic the other factors are right now aloft.

With such a strong PV, you will from time to time get these huge outpourings of cold if you can get a very brief amplification of the jet. The only worry is such a alrge outburst would simply send the jet into hyperdrive and we'll feel the end results.

Those two paragraphs could sum up the winter come march!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Greenland & iceland also Steve

Remarkable for this early in the year

What does it all mean though for us, longterm ?

I think being honest nobody knows!!

JS you have repeated this question quiite a few times now and have been told this is NOT a good omen for high latitude blocking dude.

A stong intense cold PV over greenland is pretty much the last thing cold lovers would want to see!!

[cyclonic happiness]

JS you have repeated this question quiite a few times now and have been told this is NOT a good omen for high latitude blocking dude.

A stong intense cold PV over greenland is pretty much the last thing cold lovers would want to see!!

Unless, as we are uncharted waters, the record cold in the stratosphere could ramp up a 'cold' zonality that could send band after band of snow from the northwest over the UK?

No-one knows, so lets just sit back and wait.

One thing's for sure, this is going to be a decisive winter.

[lorenzo]

People- Have a butchers at the ECM 192 chart at 850 level over the states- I never seen cold that widespread or deep-

S

Chairman of british gas looks on enviously...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA192.gif

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Unless, as we are uncharted waters, the record cold in the stratosphere could ramp up a 'cold' zonality that could send band after band of snow from the northwest over the UK?

No-one knows, so lets just sit back and wait.

One thing's for sure, this is going to be a decisive winter.

Nope a cold PV is absoluely not good news for us.

[Cheshire Freeze]

JS you have repeated this question quiite a few times now and have been told this is NOT a good omen for high latitude blocking dude.

A stong intense cold PV over greenland is pretty much the last thing cold lovers would want to see!!

Or to look at it from a different perspective, any SSW in January could lead to spectacular happenings come end of Jan/Feb

[Fozfoster]

I wonder if bottling up the Arctic cold via the strong and flat jet we've been having is resulting in an unusually large area of cold uppers across the high latitudes?

ECM keeps coming up with massive storm complexes to our north that are capapble of dragging in -3 to -5C uppers from right across the Atlantic! GFS is quite similar too but high pressure building into Europe diverts the cold away from the south - this may well be about to happen on the ECM output as well.

After all that boring weather, things have gone a bit mental as a means of compensation

I copied this from two. Any thoughts?

[phil nw.]

Yes but the ECM is less likely to be overdoing the cold than the GFS.

The temperature gradient on the ECM looks far more condusive to the S word, I wasn't going to mention snow you know how risky that is in here! I chickened out by just saying an active cold front !!!

Looking at how they phase that trough, the cleaner phase is the ECM, at this timeframe though it could still go pearshaped considering the uncertainties regarding low pressure in the eastern USA.

Hi Nick,

I prefer the ECM pattern further down the line, it keeps that jet tilted NW-SE driving troughing into Scandi and E.Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Delays at least Heights to our South prolonging the colder pattern,compared to later GFS.

[Backtrack]

I copied this from two. Any thoughts?

I might have if I didn't have to press my nose up against my screen to read it...

[nick sussex]

Unless, as we are uncharted waters, the record cold in the stratosphere could ramp up a 'cold' zonality that could send band after band of snow from the northwest over the UK?

No-one knows, so lets just sit back and wait.

One thing's for sure, this is going to be a decisive winter.

Decisively good or bad?

I'll be honest with a strong PV we're doing very well but how long can it last?

Maybe we will buck recent trends with a strong PV but generally if people are looking for real cold and UK wide snow with ice days then it's not going to come with the PV limpeted to Greenland.

I will be very happy though to be proven totally wrong!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Following posts about the cold progged for the states, if such an outpouring of cold can happen there it can happen here. A strong zonal pattern now has no bearing on Jan/Feb whatsoever.

[Gavin Hannah]

From the current setup, I am with Nick on this one, until we know for sure what the low over canada does and where the ridge in the atlantic goes, then there is no point looking past wed/thur tbh.

I do have a feeling that it will be a case of lows hitting the north repeatedly throughout Dec, and each one dragging down cold NW air.

[The watcher]

I tend to disagree happy days with regards to saying that a strong PV is terrible for cold. If you stick your head in your freezer (all that bottled up cold) you'll still feel the pinch. It's not good for an Easterly no, but the weather we'll see for the next 10 days is what it is good for. Of course though it depends where your backyard is.

[Fozfoster]

I might have if I didn't have to press my nose up against my screen to read it...

I wonder if bottling up the Arctic cold via the strong and flat jet we've been having is resulting in an unusually large area of cold uppers across the high latitudes?

ECM keeps coming up with massive storm complexes to our north that are capapble of dragging in -3 to -5C uppers from right across the Atlantic! GFS is quite similar too but high pressure building into Europe diverts the cold away from the south - this may well be about to happen on the ECM output as well.

After all that boring weather, things have gone a bit mental as a means of compensation

Any better? lol