Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[A.J]

The model projections and charts etc. shown are NOT INFALLIBLE.

Of more concern for some as shown by the MetO warnings is later today and tomorrow.

Climate is in a permanent state of chaos, therefore, making asumptions about future events such as what is likely to happen at t2600 minutes from now is ludicrous.

My intention is not to be a killjoy here but more appropriately to make sure folks get some kind of perspective of weather related matters and the complexities of the models.

My advice is to listen to the more well informed longer term members in here as its precisely those folk that have taught me the ropes by simply reading what they have to say.

Back to the topic of the thread, every day of this week is worth WATCHING CLOSELY IMHO. Round 1 tonight and tomorrow, Round 2 Wednesday, a brief lull then Round 3 late Thursday into Friday. Rain, Wind, Sleet & Snow, Flooding, Tornadoes being all in the mix.

Entertaining weather for sure.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Good rounded post........at the current timescale(T96+) it would be unwise to look at the current model output and decide there and then whether or not fridays system is going to be a major 'player' or not...at the current timescale, model output is for trend spotting. The weather patterns are very volatile ATM and for me, currently FI starts at T48-T60....A good example of this fact is in the Met Office issuing country-wide wind warnings for friday, as it infers to me that at the current juncture even the Met Office (with all of their extra modeling software at their disposal aren't sure the track or strength of fridays progged system )

[West Sussex Kate]

I agree what's happening tonight then?

[NickR]

Meanwhile tomorrow's storm seems to get worse - especially for W Scotland, NI , and N Eng

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

[gottolovethisweather]

Good rounded post........at the current timescale(T96+) it would be unwise to look at the current model output and decide there and then whether or not fridays system is going to be a major 'player' or not...at the current timescale, model output is for trend spotting. The weather patterns are very volatile ATM and for me, currently FI starts at T48-T60....A good example of this fact is in the Met Office issuing country-wide wind warnings for friday, as it infers to me that at the current juncture even the Met Office (with all of their extra modeling software at their disposal aren't sure the track or strength of fridays progged system )

Exactly AJ.

And here's 2 good reasons why.

Look at the amount of troughs/lows on the current output as shown below. :o

Now look at t+60 and look at all the various fronts/occlusions etc.

Difficult times for us OBSERVERS and difficult times too for the official forecasters.

Regards

gotolovethisweather

Edited December 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

Second storm to hit the UK tonight

High winds and stormy weather is expected in England from tonight days after 165mph winds battered Scotland.

A weather warning for strong winds and heavy rain has been issued for most parts of England, with the south-east expected to be most affected. The Met Office said the winds were unlikely to be as extreme as last week where gusts approaching the highest wind speed on record forced planes to be grounded, schools to close and warnings not to travel in Scotland. But gales of up to 60mph are expected across the country.

Parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England saw an icy start to the day while windy weather is likely to continue tomorrow along with heavy showers and some flooding. Helen Chivers, Met Office forecaster, said the new weather front was moving in from the west.

"We are looking at severe gales, which could be up to 60mph," she said.

http://www.telegraph...UK-tonight.html

[lorenzo]

http://www.telegraph...UK-tonight.html

Thousands of homes were left without power and Glasgow and Edinburgh airports were forced to cancel a number of flights.

vs

Two royal engagements were also affected by bad weather as the Countess of Wessex postponed her visit to County Durham and the Duke of Gloucester was also unable to travel to Glasgow.

Well I guess that gives the story depth and makes it real for everyone then...

[Harry]

IMO, the synoptics for Thursday into Friday have the hallmark of another 'bomb'. It is rare to be hit by a 'bomb', but two in the space of a week could be quite rare indeed (if indeed last weeks storm was officially classified as a bomb). I would go as far as to say Thurs/Fri looks potentially more destructive than what hit Scotland last week!!

Tonight's weather IMO is likely to be rather low key, certainly in comparison with what hit Scotland and N England last week, but also in comparison with what potentially threatens most of the UK in 3-4 days time. A brief spell of 60-70mph gusts up the Channel and across the SE corner into EA likely, which in itself could cause disruption and some structural damage. Some very heavy rain likely too, particularly across southern and western areas of the UK.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Harry

[Bobby]

Fairly nasty looking FAX chart, can see why the MetO are still concerned. Looks like this storm is going to be an unpredictable 'un, they can be the most dangerous. The fact the MetOffice have all of Britain under warnings for Thursday/Friday's system shows how much uncertainty there is, lots in the ensembles too. Might be nothing much at all, might be quite nasty. Might not be until Wednesday or even later til there's a good handle on it. One to watch for sure.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Barb-

[Harry]

Fairly nasty looking FAX chart, can see why the MetO are still concerned. Looks like this storm is going to be an unpredictable 'un, they can be the most dangerous ones, the fact the MetOffice have the whole of Britain under warnings for Thursday/Friday's storms shows how much uncertainty there is, lots in the ensembles too. Might be nothing much at all, might be quite nasty. Might not be til Wednesday or even later til there's a good handle on it. One to watch for sure.

If that FAX chart were to come to fruition (as I suspect it will given the potentially explosive mix of airmasses shown on most if not all ensembles), then we could be talking about significant disruption and a realistic threat to life.

[Terminal Moraine]

The 06z GFS now has Friday's low moving east along the Channel with a central pressure around 980mb and the strongest winds over France. The complicating factor seems to be the secondary low which develops to the west of the main low near Scotland on Wednesday, until the behaviour of this is resolved it's an open field. No wonder the Met' Office have a blanket advisory for almost the whole of Britain.

[Harry]

The 06z GFS now has Friday's low moving east along the Channel with a central pressure around 980mb and the strongest winds over France. The complicating factor seems to be the secondary low which develops to the west of the main low near Scotland on Wednesday, until the behaviour of this is resolved it's an open field. No wonder the Met' Office have a blanket advisory for almost the whole of Britain.

Rather like 1987 where indications were it could skip over France.

[legritter]

morning CRIMSON SPRITE , if you dont get the gales you might get the snow ,plenty of natures mix about this week . hope you sort youre wind thing out .just had a look at sat pic WOW , FRIDAYS LOW IN MY OPPINION COULD GO 150/200 MILES OUT ON CURRENT PREDICTIONS ,OF CHRISTMAS SHOPPING NOW WILL CATDH UP TONIGHT ,A BIT OF RADAR WATCHING ,REGARDS LEGRITTER

[A.J]

06z GFS has the system considerably further south than previous model outputs, and now has a distinctly wintry spice added to the mix!

Just popped the following post in the MOD thread thought I'd add it here as its relevant to the discussion...

Interesting GFS run regarding fridays LP...My memory is hazy, but hasn't the GFS reverted back to its earlier runs from a few days back when it showed this system as a channel Low?...I'm sure I remember members posting on this....Interesting because there are tantalizing possibilities of a marginal snow event for central parts of the UK if this particular run verified?

[Purplepixii]

I've kept up with these posts all weekend & am interested in seeing what actually happens this week. Spent time yesterday putting garden furniture in the garage and bought some tough plastic sheeting & tape just incase I (or my neighbours) are badly effected by the predicted weather. Have woken up this morning though to a glorious day - blue sky, bright sunshine and not cold (7.2^oC feels like 9.9^oC) and it's hard to believe what's in store considering! Not looking forward to the drive to college tomorrow morning and on Thursday & Friday if the predicted weather comes to fruition!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

All I can say is thank god yesterday's modelled 'mega-depression' has all but disappeared, hopefully never to return ! Still some strong winds forecast for various areas this week, but hopefully nothing to seriously endanger life and limb, and also nice to see some wintry possibilities showing up as well.

[Robbie Garrett]

Rather like 1987 where indications were it could skip over France.

If that FAX chart were to come to fruition (as I suspect it will given the potentially explosive mix of airmasses shown on most if not all ensembles), then we could be talking about significant disruption and a realistic threat to life.

Someone mentioned to me, that the strength of this storm is determined quite a lot by the azores high. The higher the high pressure the steeper the gradient between the two pressure systems, and Harry - Mr storm lover! Welcome back again! LOL

[lorenzo]

The 06z GFS now has Friday's low moving east along the Channel with a central pressure around 980mb and the strongest winds over France. The complicating factor seems to be the secondary low which develops to the west of the main low near Scotland on Wednesday, until the behaviour of this is resolved it's an open field. No wonder the Met' Office have a blanket advisory for almost the whole of Britain.

Good summary TM, the fax chart is certainly a completely different solution to the 06z and it looks like things will continue to change quickly all week.

Slap bang in the middle of this chart is a 14 degree temp gradient.. http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-84.png?6

[Lauren]

Tonight's weather IMO is likely to be rather low key, certainly in comparison with what hit Scotland and N England last week, but also in comparison with what potentially threatens most of the UK in 3-4 days time. A brief spell of 60-70mph gusts up the Channel and across the SE corner into EA likely, which in itself could cause disruption and some structural damage. Some very heavy rain likely too, particularly across southern and western areas of the UK.

I'd agree with that actually. Sure I don't know too much about charts and the like, but from what I've seen i reckon you'res spot on.

My elderly neighbours have been well and truly scaremongered and are tying everything down and stocking up on tins....

[Lt. Dan]

Well I have my new vantage vue weather station ready to go today, it would be nice if it didn't snap off and fly down the street before it gets any real use!

[Crimson_Sprite]

morning CRIMSON SPRITE , if you dont get the gales you might get the snow ,plenty of natures mix about this week . hope you sort youre wind thing out .just had a look at sat pic WOW , FRIDAYS LOW IN MY OPPINION COULD GO 150/200 MILES OUT ON CURRENT PREDICTIONS ,OF CHRISTMAS SHOPPING NOW WILL CATDH UP TONIGHT ,A BIT OF RADAR WATCHING ,REGARDS LEGRITTER

OOOOHHHHHHH Snow would be mighty nice indeedy!!!!!!!!!!! Yes, i see the 06z now showing nothing notable wind-wise for my area for Friday (yes i know that this is just 1 run and is likely to change about 56 zillion times before Friday) but if the 06z run pulled off,then i would look to get some nice snow for friday which would be far yummier!!!!!

Deffo worth watching the storms closely. Tonight should be briefly wild for me (fingers crossed) deffo snuggle under the duvet weather!!!!

[Bobby]

Ensembles throwing up all sorts of scenarios

The higher res of the operational might mean it can be more trusted though.

[WaitingForMackerel]

Should be a very intersting couple of days. My location seems to have a baseline 40-45mph gusts for the next 2 days with periods of betweeen 50-65mph gust, depending on which forecast i look at. I hope it is no worse that this, i do like a good storm but i also like my home as well.

[Liam J]

Well the north looks set to get battered by severe gales or even storm force winds by Tuesday evening, 950hpa storm centre tracking over Scotland bringing potentially damaging gusts over N Ireland, Scotland and N England.

Time to batten down the hatches again!

[Jane Louise]

An odd comment as you posted this, And I suspect my views are fairly obvious.

"This is how I feel. If people didn't enjoy things that killed people, no one would enjoy anything Of all the things that people enjoy, weather has got to be pretty low down on the lst of things that kill".

I think you'll find another member mentioned this, not me Lol

[Nick F]

Quite a few 06z GEFS members still have Friday's low tracking across northern Britain:

Though given the spread in solutions for the low's track, there is alot of model uncertainty, which is probably down to how the trough and jet coming off of NE Canada phases and interacts with the developing low over the Atlantic on Thursday. The low seems to develop ahead of another system moving off the Eastern Seaboard mid-week, as a cold trough and strong jet comes off NE Canada and interacts with the steep themal gradient west of the Azores mid-week.

The low looks to have some rather warm (for early winter) Tm air wapping up into it as it arrives to the SW - with much colder air in contrast on its northern flank, so there is potential for some explosive development - it's whether it will deepen rapidly over the UK or further east. The models aren't too developmental with the low this morning, but there is perhaps potential for rapid cyclogensis near the UK, given the steep thermal gradient and a strong jet along it.