Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Matty M]

It is such a shame though that one of the models, the ECM ensembels, are starting to back away from this low now. I am feeling quite sick at the thought of such a good and fun windy spell for such a long time for friday just being taken away at an instant.

Looks likely I will have to make the most of tomorrows storm now unless the models change again.

Buddy you'd be foolish to think this was ever going to be as simple as predicted at 168hrs and delivered at 0hrs!

This is the beauty of the game.

For what its worth PJB on UKWW, 1/3 EPS with ECM OP, 2/3 with GFS/UKM

[wimblettben]

according to my contact at the met office, there will be hurricane force winds across the whole of the UK on friday, except for Wiltshire, where it will be calm dull and grey....

I am being serious here bobbydog.

Look at the ECM and you will wonder what happened to the low.

[Matty M]

I am being serious here bobbydog.

Look at the ECM and you will wonder what happened to the low.

What happened is greatly explained here

Excellent stuff

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/88074-dec-storms-synoptic-discussion-development/

[coldfingers]

according to my contact at the met office, there will be hurricane force winds across the whole of the UK on friday, except for Wiltshire, where it will be calm dull and grey....

And for Mere in Wiltshire the wind will be 0 with not enough force to lift a hair.

Actualy wimblettben you will soon get used to the disappointments the weather brings on here. if you think this is bad, wait for when the snow falls everywhere except on you and on me. I will be weeping with you then.

Don't give up hope, it is still too far away to call yet, I was told anything over 3 days and anything can change.

Edited December 11, 2011 by coldfingers

[Lauren]

Its a soak away...I know it's not in best nick..It is ment to drain the patio which is about 25 ish square meters....With all that rain that runs into it that water has to go somewhere..When it cant handle it suffers and pours through the arch and into my garden and turns it into a pond lol

Hmm, that rain hasn't really transpired to be much considering it was supposed to be really havey looking at the radar.

[bobbydog]

I am being serious here bobbydog.

Look at the ECM and you will wonder what happened to the low.

i have. look at every other model and you can still see it very clearly. one run of one model does not tell us the end result. the GEM goes so low its going to dig a channel through the middle of the UK! but thats unlikely isnt it? - just wait and see...

[gottolovethisweather]

It is such a shame though that one of the models, the ECM ensembels, are starting to back away from this low now. I am feeling quite sick at the thought of such a good and fun windy spell for such a long time for friday just being taken away at an instant.

Looks likely I will have to make the most of tomorrows storm now unless the models change again.

Ben,

Read the post I linked to in my original post 369. Also, pay attention to the long time posters on here to see what they think may be happening.

I will say the HIGHLIGHTED PART in my post is most applicable too.

Following one run and ignoring consecutive runs or even matching runs (06z with 06z, 12z with 12z) is a recipe for disaster as most wise folk will concur.

Experience with these things is what counts and the older you get (I'm 39) the wiser you get when it comes to understanding the weird weather of the UK.

Kind Regards :w00t:

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 11, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Schnee]

I really hope this storm does not happen. XC Weather has 80+mph gusts in the early hours of Friday for Crossgates.

[Brassmonkeylily]

It is such a shame though that one of the models, the ECM ensembels, are starting to back away from this low now. I am feeling quite sick at the thought of such a good and fun windy spell for such a long time for friday just being taken away at an instant.

Looks likely I will have to make the most of tomorrows storm now unless the models change again.

Maybe you should be pleased that if this is the case nobody will be hurt or have their property damaged... ..........

[Jane Louise]

A Weather Watch has been recently issued from Netweather.

Weather Watch for Severe Gales and Heavy Rain for w/c Mon 12th December

Issued on 11/12/2011 at 20:52

Valid From: 11/12/2011 at 19:00 until 16/12/2011 at 23:59

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerthome;sess=

[wimblettben]

Maybe you should be pleased that if this is the case nobody will be hurt or have their property damaged... ..........

I know what you mean and I do sometimes have two sides to my self where one side wan't to see the shear power of winds actually getting above 60mph, but then the other side realises that it would likely cause damage to peoples homes including mines. And I also realise that some of the nice trees we have around here would likely be damaged or uprooted and that would upset me as well.

If only we could find a way to make everything invincible against storm force winds, that would be my dream come true as I could see as many storms as I wanted, but without the downside of damage that comes with it.

[suffolkboy_]

Well the ECM ensembles mean looks similar to the operational so I think that now it is looking more likely that there will only be one storm next week now and that will be tomorrows one.

The chance of next fridays low coming off now will be probably below 50% if other models start to follow the ECM over the next couple of days or even hours. I know I probably shouldn't be saying this, but I am very gutted currently.

I'm guessing you are probably quite new to model watching, and ofcourse we welcome you to join us!

Yes, you are correct that the ECM has dropped the low on the operational (this is calculated at the highest resolution), however it hasn't dropped it completely.

It's also worth looking at the run, and seeing whether what it is showing is believable. I for one think the ECM isn't believable (some may disagree). It shows the low being well out in the Atlantic to over Denmark within 24 hours. I simply can't see this happening.

A great problem many people have on here (and this shows most in winter), is hanging onto every run. Models should simply be used to get an idea of a pattern at first, and should only be compared every 24 hour period (the 18z compared with tomorrows 18z) etc. This is because certain data is only entered during the day or at certain times etc.

However, as is often said on here....more runs needed.

[Jimmyh]

mark my words this is going nowhere these two storms. I believe there will be some changes in the models but as has been said watching model to model runs is not good for the heart.

If we take it at face value only one has dropped the idea of fridays low. GFS still going with a monster storm.

Pub run will be hugely important here

[Liam J]

A Weather Watch has been recently issued from Netweather.

Weather Watch for Severe Gales and Heavy Rain for w/c Mon 12th December

Issued on 11/12/2011 at 20:52

Valid From: 11/12/2011 at 19:00 until 16/12/2011 at 23:59

http://www.netweathe...alerthome;sess=

This says a lot for the ECM 12z.

[Polar Bear]

Ben,

Read the post I linked to in my original post 369. Also, pay attention to the long time posters on here to see what they think may be happening.

I will say the HIGHLIGHTED PART in my post is most applicable too.

Following one run and ignoring consecutive runs or even matching runs (06z with 06z, 12z with 12z) is a recipe for disaster as most wise folk will concur.

Experience with these things is what counts and the older you get (I'm 39) the wiser you get when it comes to understanding the weird weather of the UK.

Kind Regards :w00t:

gottolovethisweather

I have run out of my quota for liking posts otherwise I would have clicked it.

Definately well said take on board those with longer time on here. (like your grand self GTLTW ...

I tend to keep an eye up til the last 24 hours (then now casting comes into play when snow is about)...and just goes one model has a wobble five days out, only means the runs for the next few days will be very interesting and never quite what we all expect...

PB x

[95 Degrees]

So it wasn't even given a battering during the 13th to 14th of november 2009 storm? There were gusts over 70mph on the coasts that day. This coming windy spell doesn't look as bad as then.

Depends where you live, if the MetOffice are correct about gusts in my area (70-80mph at times!) then this could be the worst storm since the March 10th 2008 storm.

[NickyB]

I apologise if I'm about to offend or upset anyone here but why is it that some posters are made to feel bad for wanting a major storm so pass over their way?

I would like to experience some extreme weather events in my lifetime and I will not apologise for that. Obviously there is going to be the risk of damage and maybe worse but this is NATURE! We are a part of that, and there's no reason I can see that myself and others should be made to feel stupid or ignorant of the possible outcomes just because we crave the experience of extremes.

[Jane Louise]

I know what you mean and I do sometimes have two sides to my self where one side wan't to see the shear power of winds actually getting above 60mph, but then the other side realises that it would likely cause damage to peoples homes including mines. And I also realise that some of the nice trees we have around here would likely be damaged or uprooted and that would upset me as well.

If only we could find a way to make everything invincible against storm force winds, that would be my dream come true as I could see as many storms as I wanted, but without the downside of damage that comes with it.

What you are implying is, that you like to see Mother nature entertain us with some exciting weather, but you are also saying that you do not want any bad consequenses in a way that'll harm anybody! I agree with that, as long as everybody is safe and closely follows the rules then a storm can be a fascinating weather event to watch.

mark my words this is going nowhere these two storms. I believe there will be some changes in the models but as has been said watching model to model runs is not good for the heart.

If we take it at face value only one has dropped the idea of fridays low. GFS still going with a monster storm.

Pub run will be hugely important here

Hi Jimmy,

Can you please pop your location in your profile.

Thank you

[kmanmx]

I apologise if I'm about to offend or upset anyone here but why is it that some posters are made to feel bad for wanting a major storm so pass over their way?

I would like to experience some extreme weather events in my lifetime and I will not apologise for that. Obviously there is going to be the risk of damage and maybe worse but this is NATURE! We are a part of that, and there's no reason I can see that myself and others should be made to feel stupid or ignorant of the possible outcomes just because we crave the experience of extremes.

I am going to have to agree with you here.

I live smack bang in the center of England, storms can come from north south east or west, but we never get anything like the worst of it down here either. We miss nearly all major snow events too.

Any chance of some stormy weather, i'd like to take it. Of course I don't want people to get injured or hurt by it, but I love storms like many on here, so from that perspective atleast.. the more the merrier!

[gottolovethisweather]

I apologise if I'm about to offend or upset anyone here but why is it that some posters are made to feel bad for wanting a major storm so pass over their way?

I would like to experience some extreme weather events in my lifetime and I will not apologise for that. Obviously there is going to be the risk of damage and maybe worse but this is NATURE! We are a part of that, and there's no reason I can see that myself and others should be made to feel stupid or ignorant of the possible outcomes just because we crave the experience of extremes.

Exactly NATURE is beyond our control, as is the WEATHER. However, I'm sure we can all help nature by not overconsuming our resources, however thats another topic.

What you are implying is, that you like to see Mother nature entertain us with some exciting weather, but you are also saying that you do not want any bad consequenses in a way that'll harm anybody! I agree with that, as long as everybody is safe and closely follows the rules then a storm can be a fascinating weather event to watch.

Indeed Jane and Ice Pop,

That certainly applies to 99% of the population too, well at least I'd like to think so.

Sorry folks in bringing up a previous post of mine, BUT this I feel is still very much VALID.

However, I would still advise folk in here to advise others of the potentials dangers this week.

Edited December 11, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Lauren]

I apologise if I'm about to offend or upset anyone here but why is it that some posters are made to feel bad for wanting a major storm so pass over their way?

I would like to experience some extreme weather events in my lifetime and I will not apologise for that. Obviously there is going to be the risk of damage and maybe worse but this is NATURE! We are a part of that, and there's no reason I can see that myself and others should be made to feel stupid or ignorant of the possible outcomes just because we crave the experience of extremes.

This is how I feel. If people didn't enjoy things that killed people, no one would enjoy anything Of all the things that people enjoy, weather has got to be pretty low down on the lst of things that kill.

[Jane Louise]

Bumping up a post from earlier:

Can any one help please.

Thanks

jo200199

Evening all :-) Could anyone with better knowledge of the weather charts than myself, be so kind and give me a rough idea of what tomorrows & thurs/fri storms could mean for S.Wales please? I only have access to net via my phone :-( I have been following the thread, but obviously people mostly post about thier locations & I'm all confuddled lol. I would just like to give my family & friends the heads up, as most people take no notice of the media hype as it seldom plays out that way. I find the weather very interesting, providing everyone is safe. In the summer a mini tornado passed right through my area (Crumlin/Newbridge) and caused alot of damage in seconds :-( It was very scary. The rugby stands in a field a few hundred yards away blew over the train tracks and down the street. A lampost got blown onto a nieghbours front door and part of the grandstand was up against her back door. Her & her baby couldnt get out :-( There were trees and branches strewn everywhere for a m

ile or so and another nieghbour had his kitchen roof ripped off. Fortuneately nobody was hurt :-) Apart from the huge pain they felt in thier heads as it passed over. The noise was unbelievable and undiscribeable. I believe forewarned is forearmed. Sorry for the long post, but hopefully you now understand why this is important to me. Keep up the good work everyone and stay safe x

[Lauren]

Ah here's that rain now. Sounds lovely, not hard, but decent.

It's at times like this I wish i could put a pause on the weather and press play when I'm lying in bed with the windows open.

[bobbydog]

i've said this before, but its generally the ignorance of people which causes injury and death. ok there will be the odd incident of a tree falling on a house etc, but driving in it? really? how many pictures of lorries blown over in storms do we see? loads. if the roads were on fire, would people drive on them? unlikely i think! so why do people still go out on the roads in high sided lorries or drive down country roads with the trees bending and creaking around them. is missing one day of work or not having any milk for your tea more important than your life?....

[knocker]

This is how I feel. If people didn't enjoy things that killed people, no one would enjoy anything Of all the things that people enjoy, weather has got to be pretty low down on the lst of things that kill.

The World Health Organisation has estimated that the extreme heat of 2003 caused more than 15, 000 excess deaths in France, Portugal and Italy alone. It is also the biggest natural killer event in the US. There was an interesting interview with an elderly trawlerman from Peterhead on the radio this morning regarding being at sea in these storms. I can empathise with his comments. I was in the Clyde in 68 when half of Glasgow disappeared and men drowned not far from where we were. As it was we nearly ended up in Gourock high street. I should add I don't think trawlermen are ignorant but extremely brave.

Edited December 11, 2011 by weather ship