Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Well done ECM now for others to follow. Just what I have been waiting for.

:clap:

[camiscool]

hows tomorrow looking for the south

[Lauren]

blimey this rain is HEAVY!!!!

Looking forward to it! ETA seems to be about 9.30pm

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ interesting....Look at the wind arrows in the south for Friday..

Looking forward to it! ETA seems to be about 9.30pm

My drain on my patio is over flowing and there is a drain out the front of my house that only fills up and floods the road when it really comes down and it is Finally some proper rain...

[Liam J]

People are getting ahead of themselves, we should all know that one model showing a different scenario to all of the others does not mean it will be correct.

If the GFS follows suit on the 18z I will take it seriously, also if the ECM 00z maintains this new evolution I will believe it, until then as you were.

Do you think the Meto are sitting in Exeter saying ''we need to remove the warnings and change our forecasts because one model has had a wobble''

Granted it is the ECM but as I mention we need to see the next GFS 18z and the 00z ECM before drawing any conclusions on this one.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Nick F]

Well, this has got be more exciting than X-factor surely!

12z ECM shows the low later this week on much more southerly track and less deep:

ECM obviously out of kilter with the other models, and the GFS ens only thrown in a few similarly southerly track solutions.

Be interesting to see what the t+120 fax shows later this evening when it's updated for 12z Friday.

[Polar Bear]

I posted this on the regional thread but very quiet on there so I will ask the same question here.

Does anyone know how likely the strong winds are for down on the South Coast on Friday? Only asking as my son has his driving test in Chichester on Friday and the winds look like being fairly strong. Currently it is showing gale 8 to gale 9. if it doesn't go higher he shouldn't get the test cancelled I think. However is there any chance this could still develop to a storm? Thanks if anyone can answer.

Hey CF

Good to see you! I did glance at the regional thread too and it were a bit quiet so hence on here. However if there is any smow on the way I expect to see you CTLTW SLB97 and the rest of the crew then.

Dont think it can be said for sure what the winds will be like.Although if the other models come to fruition what they are saying today then I suspect 70 plus wouldnt be amiss for the coast. Funnily enough I will be back in brighton again that day. Hope though he does well in his test. Sure he will be grand

PB x

[Lauren]

I know this won't mean alot to anybody who doesn't live in Kent. But a family friend of ours is a police officer and he told us that there have only ever been 4 attempts to close the M2 bridge since 1985 (he doesn't know about before then). One of them was the great storm of 1987. Apparently it didn't work as the wind kept blowing away all their barricades, but luckily very few people tried to cross anyway. It's uspposed to close if gusts will be over 50mph, but it hardly ever happens.

[coldfingers]

Hey CF

Good to see you! I did glance at the regional thread too and it were a bit quiet so hence on here. However if there is any smow on the way I expect to see you CTLTW SLB97 and the rest of the crew then.

Dont think it can be said for sure what the winds will be like.Although if the other models come to fruition what they are saying today then I suspect 70 plus wouldnt be amiss for the coast. Funnily enough I will be back in brighton again that day. Hope though he does well in his test. Sure he will be grand

PB x

Tx Polar Bear. His instructor said barring accidents or a miserable tester he should pass but if it is delayed another 6 weeks that adds up to a lot more lessons and he is unemplyed and needs a driving licence for the countryside work he is trying to get. Still, what will be will be. I love storms so am half wishing for the storm and half wishing not. If only it would come Sat or Thurs. Hope you will be near the sea front on Friday in Brighton, should look good there!

By the way, i will defo be around if the snow comes or even this storm. been very busy lately keeping an eye on potential volcanoes.

Edited December 11, 2011 by coldfingers

[Guest Kent-Weather]

I know this won't mean alot to anybody who doesn't live in Kent. But a family friend of ours is a police officer and he told us that there have only ever been 4 attempts to close the M2 bridge since 1985 (he doesn't know about before then). One of them was the great storm of 1987. Apparently it didn't work as the wind kept blowing away all their barricades, but luckily very few people tried to cross anyway. It's uspposed to close if gusts will be over 50mph, but it hardly ever happens.

Interesting to note.. never heard of it closing before.

[Lauren]

Interesting to note.. never heard of it closing before.

That's because most attempts have ended in failure!

[Polar Bear]

Tx Polar Bear. His instructor said barring accidents or a miserable tester he should pass but if it is delayed another 6 weeks that adds up to a lot more lessons and he is unemplyed and needs a driving licence for the countryside work he is trying to get. Still, what will be will be. I love storms so am half wishing for the storm and half wishing not. If only it would come Sat or Thurs. Hope you will be near the sea front on Friday in Brighton, should look good there!

Am sure it will happen on Friday - maybe head a little away and into chichester for his test? Hoppe he does ok and gets his work in the countryside, and you also see the storm. What it needs to do is start up after his test....

[coldfingers]

Am sure it will happen on Friday - maybe head a little away and into chichester for his test? Hoppe he does ok and gets his work in the countryside, and you also see the storm. What it needs to do is start up after his test....

Ah that would be Utopia and I am not a believer. The dopey boy,(20 but useless) can't even remember the time of his test and has to ask his instructor on Tues, how useless is that! LOL

Looks like tomorrow night will be pretty windy too, showing 44.9mph with 61mph gusts at 9:00pm tomorrow for here. Got to go and secure the garden and greenhouse tomorrow morning.

Edited December 11, 2011 by coldfingers

[Lauren]

Rain has just started here, looks like the heavier stuff is due in about half an hour according ot the radar.

[juk2014]

hopefully it won't be as bad as some of the models. Two storms in one week is a bit much

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ interesting....Look at the wind arrows in the south for Friday..

My drain on my patio is over flowing and there is a drain out the front of my house that only fills up and floods the road when it really comes down and it is Finally some proper rain...

Your patio drain is probably blocked with leaves. One of those plastic drain covers will keep them out

[Jayces]

hows tomorrow looking for the south

Wet SW, Wet n Windy S and Windy SE

[coldfingers]

Wow, Netweather local forecast showing gists up to 61mph at midnight tomorrow and MetO showing possibly up to 76mph in gusts for the coast where I live. Taking a mean of those would mean I could possibly expect around 68mph gustsand upward. Not that unusual for the coast down here but interesting is the word I would use.

http://www.metoffice...ap&locId=310031

Edited December 11, 2011 by coldfingers

[wimblettben]

Well the ECM ensembles mean looks similar to the operational so I think that now it is looking more likely that there will only be one storm next week now and that will be tomorrows one.

The chance of next fridays low coming off now will be probably below 50% if other models start to follow the ECM over the next couple of days or even hours. I know I probably shouldn't be saying this, but I am very gutted currently.

[gottolovethisweather]

For those still interested or even concerned about the week's events should read the new thread set up by Coast.

The most detailed assessment thus far IMO is here. http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2180702

Ok, it's just possible things will change, especially given the ONE run wobble from ECM tonight. However, I would still advise folk in here to advise others of the potentials dangers this week.

An active week ahead for sure and I'll be glued to the latest updates.

Late Monday into Tuesday looks interesting for the south, then maybe some wintriness (particularly on the hills) in between then and late Thursday into Friday.

Good stuff.

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 11, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[jo200199]

Evening all :-) Could anyone with better knowledge of the weather charts than myself, be so kind and give me a rough idea of what tomorrows & thurs/fri storms could mean for S.Wales please? I only have access to net via my phone :-( I have been following the thread, but obviously people mostly post about thier locations & I'm all confuddled lol. I would just like to give my family & friends the heads up, as most people take no notice of the media hype as it seldom plays out that way. I find the weather very interesting, providing everyone is safe. In the summer a mini tornado passed right through my area (Crumlin/Newbridge) and caused alot of damage in seconds :-( It was very scary. The rugby stands in a field a few hundred yards away blew over the train tracks and down the street. A lampost got blown onto a nieghbours front door and part of the grandstand was up against her back door. Her & her baby couldnt get out :-( There were trees and branches strewn everywhere for a mile or so and another nieghbour had his kitchen roof ripped off. Fortuneately nobody was hurt :-) Apart from the huge pain they felt in thier heads as it passed over. The noise was unbelievable and undiscribeable. I believe forewarned is forearmed. Sorry for the long post, but hopefully you now understand why this is important to me. Keep up the good work everyone and stay safe x

[NO LONGER POSTING]

hopefully it won't be as bad as some of the models. Two storms in one week is a bit much

Your patio drain is probably blocked with leaves. One of those plastic drain covers will keep them out

Its a soak away...I know it's not in best nick..It is ment to drain the patio which is about 25 ish square meters....With all that rain that runs into it that water has to go somewhere..When it cant handle it suffers and pours through the arch and into my garden and turns it into a pond lol

[coldfingers]

For those still interested or even concerned about the week's events should read the new thread set up by Coast.

The most detailed assessment thus far IMO is here.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2180702

Ok, it's just possible things will change, especially given the ONE run wobble from ECM tonight. However, I would still advise folk in here to advise others of the potentials dangers this week.

An active week ahead for sure and I'll be glued to the latest updates.

Late Monday into Tuesday looks interesting for the south, then maybe some wintriness (particularly on the hills) in between then and late Thursday into Friday.

Good stuff.

gottolovethisweather

Hi gottolovethisweather, long time since I was on here. I must admit I am looking forward to the liveliness in the weather tomorrow night. Looks good for the coast here, now I have to check the tide times as a good chance of the sea overtopping the promenade if it coincides with high tide.

[wimblettben]

For those still interested or even concerned about the week's events should read the new thread set up by Coast.

The most detailed assessment thus far IMO is here.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2180702

Ok, it's just possible things will change, especially given the ONE run wobble from ECM tonight. However, I would still advise folk in here to advise others of the potentials dangers this week.

An active week ahead for sure and I'll be glued to the latest updates.

Late Monday into Tuesday looks interesting for the south, then maybe some wintriness (particularly on the hills) in between then and late Thursday into Friday.

Good stuff.

gottolovethisweather

It is such a shame though that one of the models, the ECM ensembels, are starting to back away from this low now. I am feeling quite sick at the thought of such a good and fun windy spell for such a long time for friday just being taken away at an instant.

Looks likely I will have to make the most of tomorrows storm now unless the models change again.

[bobbydog]

Well the ECM ensembles mean looks similar to the operational so I think that now it is looking more likely that there will only be one storm next week now and that will be tomorrows one.

The chance of next fridays low coming off now will be probably below 50% if other models start to follow the ECM over the next couple of days or even hours. I know I probably shouldn't be saying this, but I am very gutted currently.

according to my contact at the met office, there will be hurricane force winds across the whole of the UK on friday, except for Wiltshire, where it will be calm dull and grey....

[camiscool]

about time the south get some interesting weather. and it wouldent have been good fun it could have caused devastation