Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Liam J]

Ours have as well!

Gusts of 50-55mph predicted for your area Monday evening, 55-60mph Thurs/Friday.

http://www.xcweather...ecast/wiltshire

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[TomIOW]

I live on the Isle of Wight and have been keeping my eye on this for the last 6 days. I'm a big girls blouse when it comes to rough ferries and I'm unfortunate enough to be on a course in Southampton on Monday and Tuesday, I have booked a hotel lol.

Going to try and skulk back in the gap of less windy weather between wednesday and thursday night.

Really surprised at the lack of severe warning, having watched the models for the last 7 years this will be a real battering for the extreme south coast of the like that hasn't been seen in a number of years.

[wimblettben]

I am just a bit confused as to why the southeast are still under a warning for wind and we aren't.

Gusts of 50mph to 55mph can still cause damage particularly if they are frequent. Perhaps the situation is very difficult at the moment to make accurate predictions on what wind speeds can be expected.

[Summer Sun]

Netweather's forecast for me is this

Max Gust forecast for me on Friday is 63mph between 00:00 and 03:00 then easing through the day to 56mph between 12:00 and 15:00 before dropping to 36mph between 21:00 and 00:00

Pressure is also higher then the charts show lowest is 990 mb between 00:00 and 03:00 then rising through the day to 995 mb between 12:00 and 18:00.

[wimblettben]

I live on the Isle of Wight and have been keeping my eye on this for the last 6 days. I'm a big girls blouse when it comes to rough ferries and I'm unfortunate enough to be on a course in Southampton on Monday and Tuesday, I have booked a hotel lol.

Going to try and skulk back in the gap of less windy weather between wednesday and thursday night.

Really surprised at the lack of severe warning, having watched the models for the last 7 years this will be a real battering for the extreme south coast of the like that hasn't been seen in a number of years.

So it wasn't even given a battering during the 13th to 14th of november 2009 storm? There were gusts over 70mph on the coasts that day. This coming windy spell doesn't look as bad as then.

[Mapantz]

I am just a bit confused as to why the southeast are still under a warning for wind and we aren't.

Gusts of 50mph to 55mph can still cause damage particularly if they are frequent. Perhaps the situation is very difficult at the moment to make accurate predictions on what wind speeds can be expected.

Coastal stretches from Dorset to Kent are likely to see gusts of 70mph, perhaps higher. Their warnings fall quite nicely with the last GFS run.

[Liam J]

Widespread coastal gales developing over western and southern coasts during Monday evening looking at the 12z NAE.

[Matty M]

I think the south are in the warning zone as there will be a very tight gradient ahead of the front and a strong jet to the south, 925hpa winds are shown upto 70 knots, so it will get very gusty in the south with gusts upt 70mph on some coasts and widespread gusts to 60mph as the front moves through.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Matty M

[TomIOW]

So it wasn't even given a battering during the 13th to 14th of november 2009 storm? There were gusts over 70mph on the coasts that day. This coming windy spell doesn't look as bad as then.

lol reading your posts is quite funny, no matter what anyone says you seem to try and argue the other way. This coming windy spell will be worse than that looking at the 10m wind charts with funnelling effect from the solent I expect there to be at least 70mph gusts if not more. this is backed up by the fact that the Met O graphics has st. catherines point with 68mph monday night and they are allways under what actually materialises. Thursday into Friday has even stronger winds forecast.

For your location you are correct, it probably won't be as bad in Wiltshire, you are inland. But I would bet a large amount of money on the conditions here being awful. This is a cumulative effect that from monday night the winds will never really drop below 30mph.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs335.gif As the reds and oranges show on monday at 21z the extreme south coast, Isle of Wight and south east will get some very high sustained winds and higher gusts. I am not comparing this to last week accross scotland and north england, I also expect them to take the brunt in the upcoming stormy spells, however it will still be pretty wild down here.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1295.gif friday at 15z I have NEVER seen winds that high for my location. this coming spell DOES look worse than the 13th and 14th of november 2009, just have a flick through the model archive and look at how much tighter the isobars are and how much lower the pressure is this time.

As always though, this is only going on what is currently being predicted and I expect there to be changes!

Edit: 12z coming out so links will change

Edited December 11, 2011 by TomIOW

[DaBrigg]

It looks quite similar to the Christmas eve storm of 1997, although even more intense on the last charts.,

I sometimes feel that storm is a little overhyped. For a relatively small area in the south of Ireland it was a rare event, but perhaps not quite as rare as it is often made out to be. It was a compact storm that hit out of the blue in the middle of an important afternoon, so will live down in memory. A short lived squall accompanying a cold front on Christmas Eve 1999 delivered stronger winds to the Dublin area.

If, and thats a big if, some of the models verify, some places could easily experience the worst winds in living memory. We shall see.

Edited December 11, 2011 by DaBrigg

[Marie]

Meto have my area down for 74mph gusts tomorrow night, yesterday they had us down for 66mph.They are updating the warning all the time,maybe we will all just have to wait and see what happens

[wimblettben]

Meto have my area down for 74mph gusts tomorrow night, yesterday they had us down for 66mph.They are updating the warning all the time,maybe we will all just have to wait and see what happens

That sounds strong. I would expect an amber warning for wind in southeast england soon then if that is true.

Having said that details seem to be changing quite a lot at the moment but everywhere is going to be at least windy.

Edited December 11, 2011 by wimblettben

[January Snowstorm]

All I can say about the 12z run for Thursday is GOOD LORD!!

Ireland would be blizted by sustained hurricane force winds that would likely end all our worries!

[TomIOW]

12z has the low ever so slightly delayed but further south, crazy run

[Matty M]

much of Ireland would suffere 100mph gusts

[SP1986]

12z is a very violent storm, GFS goes for 160km/h (100mph) gusts on Friday morning for much of Northwest England, N Ireland, most of Eire and North Wales. Probably overdone, but pretty impressive to see on a chart.

[Liam J]

GFS 12z much the same with great consistancy run to run, slightly further south on this run but not massivley different with the very strongest winds speeds, Ireland gets hammered on a grand scale then NW England and North Wales feel the force.

Looks like a dart board with such a tight pressure gradient even on the approach south to south easterly severe gales with gusts of 60-70mph inland.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

That's the fourth run in a row the GFS has placed it in a similar position affecting pretty much the same area's. Unusual to see such a agreement at such a long range but I read somewhere because all storms form differently obviously some will be easier to predict than others. Like last Thursdays storm the models didn't really pick it up until about 3 days before it happened meanwhile with this it was picked up over a week away.

The UKMO 12z has a very similar track although its about 10mb higher.

[AWD]

Everywhere, from John 'O' Groats to Lands End will need to be prepared for the storm on Thursday night as IMO, anywhere and everywhere could and probably will see wind speeds capable of causing travel distruption, uprooting trees and structual damage to weak structures!

Somewhere though will see dangerous windspeeds causing all of the above plus more/worse! This is where the uncertainty lies, but favoured locations for the worst in looks to be central UK, Northern Ireland and the Borders!

Like I said initially though, everywhere will see windspeeds which will cause distruption!

[Luke]

Can anyone explain what the current set up is. I seem to see north, south and west of here mentioned, but not the Midlands.

[Jayces]

Can anyone explain what the current set up is. I seem to see north, south and west of here mentioned, but not the Midlands.

As AWD said in the post before yours.......everywhere in the UK needs to be prepared. Midlands currently looking to be one of the places near the worst of it but still not nailed yet, we will know what is going to happen come Thursday.

[Liam J]

Even areas which are some 100 or so miles away from the most damaging gusts will have severe gales and disruption, this looks like a rare event.

[Coast]

Coastal stretches from Dorset to Kent are likely to see gusts of 70mph, perhaps higher. Their warnings fall quite nicely with the last GFS run.

Only just got back in from this morning when I posted my thoughts that the South was in for more of battering than many were thinking.

I've never seen this much black in the South East, it represents tornado possibilities:

Then France is going to get mullered:

That;s GFS some I have cross referenced the hi-res HiRLAM model and guess what?

Still bad......

So what does that mean for wind speed and gusts?

70/75 mph in the early hours:

Checking elsewhere I get the same:

Gusts around 135 km/h up through the Channel and right into my front door:

Don't even get me started on Friday.....

I'll hold off being more definitive until the morning when I've seen what's thrown up overnight, but at this range I would say batten down the hatches and prepare for some high winds and higher gusts - especially now in the South and East

New thread here for in depth analysis of first Tuesday's, then Fridays low pressure systems and resultant storms. Please note, this is not another general chat thread about low pressure systems and storms!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71873-in-depth-analysis-atlantic-storm-12th-december-2011-onwards/

[mardatha]

Am enjoying this forum immensely but cannot read charts as the key gives numbers, but I dono what they are for. Is just pretty colours Am I right in thinking the Tues storm will be more southern England and the Fri one looks like hitting me again ? And when, in your opinion, will we be reasonably sure we know what it's going to do?

[tinybill]

Oh dear!!

Two very nasty storms next week, Tuesday then Friday though the latter will be subject to alot of change (perhaps) but GFS is mighty consistant with this dangerous storm run to run so far, with near hurricane force winds for me90 -100mph+ gusts!! Tuesday looks bad enough with gusts of 80mph or more likely over the north looking at the 6z.

Nothing really nailed on exactly at this range.

That double whammy would be an exceptional event over Northern britain and would cause utter chaos, north to south with even severe gales down there.

could this be a rerun of the great storm we had we all know what happened then !!! ask mr fish!!!