Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Coast]

Blimey, this seems to get going a lot earlier than I thought. Two different version of the same time frame, this is for tornado possibility

GFS has it more intensely and it ploughs across SE England and France, this is a chart I haven't seen the like of for many years and I expect some significant warnings out tomorrow from the likes of TORRO, ESTOFEX, SkyWarn and UKASF:

Convective gusts of 75 to 80 kts in Kent and Sussex!!!

[NickR]

06Z has Tuesday's further north by 50-100 miles, so would affect a little further north in terms of high winds.

[Coast]

Still looking bad this week, Tuesdays storm a bit further north

The centre is but I'm seeing 'the tail' thrashing around much further South as well

and boy will it rain!

[knightrider]

The centre of the storm appears to be over Scotland which means their in the relatively calm eye, anything south of that so Northern England and the Midlands in particular look like their going to feel the full effects, with some pretty nasty winds as far south as the channel.

[Staffordshire]

This event WILL happen and WILL be the WORST storm in decades, it WILL affect my reigon the worst.

How I know this? The weather hates me, and i'm not going to be in England then.

[Jimmyh]

looking at the models this will i think be a countrywide storm. The storm force winds will be strong everywhere on Friday. 950 at the centre and even 980 out to the edges accross the whole of the country. I haved been model watching for a few years now and i can say i have never seen a model chart like this at 4 days out.

This is in my eyes no way a F/I. let us all hope that the storm hits at night otherwise we could be looking at the Jan 1990 storm.

I am wondering what the MO will update with by tomorrow

[Coast]

Here's what ESTOFEX have to say currently:

Another sharp upper trough and attendant thermal trough move in from the NW and affect Ireland, Scotland, UK and parts of NW France during the forecast. Latest IR images already indicate quite active cold sector convection with sporadic lightning detected. This activity will increase as cold mid-level air moves atop 11°C SSTs. Strongest convection is forecast to evolve beneath the thermal trough axis where shear relaxes, so short-lived storms with sleet/marginal hail will be the main hazard. Nevertheless, a few severe wind gusts may accompany stronger convection over N-Ireland and Scotland, as 850 hPa winds exceed 20 m/s.

On current form, I think the worst of this could be more southerly than people think (and may start earlier)

[bobbydog]

Us southerners look like we have nothing of interest then. We havent had snow or wind and all you can say is oh no chance of that? You never know the models could change still.

what models have you been looking at?!! from what i've seen, the whole of the UK is getting battered this week and on friday it looks like the southern half will get the worst!

[Coast]

and then we have Friday.........

138 km/hr max along the Channel coasts at 10M above the ground!!!!!? :unsure:

[knightrider]

looking at the models this will i think be a countrywide storm. The storm force winds will be strong everywhere on Friday. 950 at the centre and even 980 out to the edges accross the whole of the country. I haved been model watching for a few years now and i can say i have never seen a model chart like this at 4 days out.

This is in my eyes no way a F/I. let us all hope that the storm hits at night otherwise we could be looking at the Jan 1990 storm.

I am wondering what the MO will update with by tomorrow

Oh crap 1990 that was bad I think 47 people where killed in that storm, I wont be going to work if it gets that bad.

what models have you been looking at?!! from what i've seen, the whole of the UK is getting battered this week and on friday it looks like the southern half will get the worst!

I couldn't agree more infact I think the southern half will get it worst for both the storms in my opinion.

[martinj2]

Its Armageddon Friday on the Model threads!!.........Seriously I do think some posters go OTT with talk of 'bye bye Britain' and death and destruction.

Some people are getting way too sensationalist on there....this is a storm based on a T+120 timeframe......T+72 and i would be seriously worried.

It will be stormy next week but there's plenty of time for the Friday storm to be downgraded, change track etc.....so lets concentrate on the Tuesday storm and not take our eye off the ball.

[knightrider]

Its Armageddon Friday on the Model threads!!.........Seriously I do think some posters go OTT with talk of 'bye bye Britain' and death and destruction.

Some people are getting way too sensationalist on there....this is a storm based on a T+120 timeframe......T+72 and i would be seriously worried.

It will be stormy next week but there's plenty of time for the Friday storm to be downgraded, change track etc.....so lets concentrate on the Tuesday storm and not take our eye off the ball.

Yes it's abit premature to be talking of Friday's storm until we get Tuesdays storm out of the way 1st which in itself looks quite bad but nothing like a 1987 Armageddon event lol.

[Jayces]

Its Armageddon Friday on the Model threads!!.........Seriously I do think some posters go OTT with talk of 'bye bye Britain' and death and destruction.

Some people are getting way too sensationalist on there....this is a storm based on a T+120 timeframe......T+72 and i would be seriously worried.

It will be stormy next week but there's plenty of time for the Friday storm to be downgraded, change track etc.....so lets concentrate on the Tuesday storm and not take our eye off the ball.

Sensible words but I believe having read some of the what I would call senior members comments, both storms are going to happen, it's just a case of where, when and how strong at this point.

The confusing thing is different people's take on the models mean they suggest different things.

For example some post that the worst will be for the Midlands northwards and others for the South coast and in both instances they can produce charts to back up those claims.

Personally I will go with what the Meto say 24 hours before each event as they are the experts after all and have a lot more data then we do.

It looks like we are about to have 2 very strong storms hit the UK and I propose that we name them after Worzel Gummidge's mistresses as they are coming from the West and he is a scarecrow, so we have Sally on Tuesday and Nancy on Friday.

[Snow and storms]

Oh crap... :blink: I thought Hastings would escape the brunt of these storms, I love storms but I still want a house standing at christmas! They are both off the beaufort scale which suggests over 80mph?

I am on the highest point of Hastings at a guess roughly 800m above sea level. Will be carrying my camera for some tornado hunting for the first storm.

On a side note, does anyone else think that storms sound more ferocious at night? if so, is this just because everything else is quieter, is it my imagination or is there actually a technical reason for this? i.e the temperature is usually lower.

[knightrider]

On a slightly worrying note the MetO still havn't updated their warnings since Friday and we are now pottencially only about 36 hours away from this event so if you ask me that had better get a move on and give us more details about what is going to happen and where!

[Terminal Moraine]

I am on the highest point of Hastings at a guess roughly 800m above sea level. Will be carrying my camera for some tornado hunting for the first storm.

That's a heck of a mountain near Hastings! Did you mean 80m?

[Robbie Garrett]

all flight take offs are INTO the surface wind at the time. Its required to get the aircraft to take off in the first place! All airlines have rules about windstrengths and cross winds that allow take off and landing, above those limits and they are not allowed.

That is correct, airlines have their own limits and Captain Landings only on some specific occasions.

For example easyJet's maximum tailwind is 10knots, maximum crosswind for engine start is 35knots.

80 to 100mph gusts in the South East Monday night/Tuesday morning? Not a chance.

I'd hope not, I live in the firing line!

[knightrider]

The approaching storms are now 1 of the main headlines on Yahoo stateing that winds of over 100mph are possible for Southern England but I think that'll be more for exposed coasts and out at sea more typically less inland but still I think 70mph+ is likely just about anywhere!

[chionomaniac]

Don't think I would want to take the night ferry to the IOM on Thursday.

[jimben]

I wonder if any thought being given to all the outdoor Christmas decorations that are hanging outside of not only business premises but also private residences as well.

Could these not become potential fire hazards with the wiring being thrown around and I am sure in many case ripped out. Notwithstanding that there will also be debris being flung through the air as further hazards to both pedestrians and motorists.

Then there is of course the financial cost as well in having to replace all these decorations.

Food for thought I would think for all those of you with outdoor decorations.

[Coast]

On a slightly worrying note the MetO still havn't updated their warnings since Friday and we are now pottencially only about 36 hours away from this event so if you ask me that had better get a move on and give us more details about what is going to happen and where!

Plenty of time for those guys as they need to be a little more certain of track and intensity. As I said in the last thread about Tuesday's storm, they are watching this very closely and with the whole country looking to them for advice, they are expected to be very accurate - which can't happen just yet.

My personal take on it so far is 'the sting in the tail' which shows up to me to be right over my head. I actually don't want a storm that could cause damage or loss of life anywhere, but especially not here as I spent 5 hours yesterday putting up the outside Christmas lights!!!

Typically, in my simple way, this shows the shape of the storm I am looking at and how the tail has the biggest bite. I'm not one of the clever peeps here, I'm just looking at colours and shapes!!!!

[SP1986]

Don't think I would want to take the night ferry to the IOM on Thursday.

Thats how the Ellan Vannin sank in 1909, it was taken into a storm with a contract for business, and it was destroyed in Liverpool Bay - nowadays The steam packet company take strict precautions on sailing in adverse weather.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I hope everybody stays safe in the coming week..At present my view is yes the South is going to get very very windy..Monday/Tuesday being the worst with some issues to travel,trees and of course the channel...This also applys for Wales, south west and Midlands..Then Friday all eyes a bit further north.. but with very strong winds still present everywhere....

[Coast]

Thats how the Ellan Vannin sank in 1909, it was taken into a storm with a contract for business, and it was destroyed in Liverpool Bay - nowadays The steam packet company take strict precautions on sailing in adverse weather.

http://forum.netweat..._1#entry1625862

[knightrider]

I wonder if any thought being given to all the outdoor Christmas decorations that are hanging outside of not only business premises but also private residences as well.

Could these not become potential fire hazards with the wiring being thrown around and I am sure in many case ripped out. Notwithstanding that there will also be debris being flung through the air as further hazards to both pedestrians and motorists.

Then there is of course the financial cost as well in having to replace all these decorations.

Food for thought I would think for all those of you with outdoor decorations.

Well just turn all the lights off then and unplug everything then there'll be no fires!