Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Static Prevails]

Wow. Netweather, from the 18Z, have forecasted 88mph gusts here on Friday. I know it's obviously not written in stone, but that's the highest I've ever seen forecasted for here.

[smoggyjester]

is the south uk not at risk now from these 2 storms? still have warnings for mon/tues?????

hopefully not anymore cheers, andy

[lewis028]

We have a ring around the moon tonight and when I researched this, it said that folklaw has is that when there is a ring around the moon, it signifies bad weather is coming. Eg a low system aka storm.

I found it interesting with what is currently showing on the models next week. Who knows ey

Source http://home.hiwaay.net/~krcool/Astro/moon/moonring/

Edited December 10, 2011 by lewis028

[lfcdude]

is the south uk not at risk now from these 2 storms? still have warnings for mon/tues?????

hopefully not anymore cheers, andy

60 plus to severe gale force winds from Tuesday ... Friday... needs to be worked out where it going to make landfull

Edited December 10, 2011 by lfcdude

[bobbydog]

Have these storms been given names yet?

If I'm gonna be blown off my motorbike and into a hedge I'd at least want to know who's blown me off?

It looks like I'm going to have to get the bus into work alot of next week, I just hope our polytunnels are up to the windstrain, we lost a tunnel in march to gales

i suppose its better to be blown off on a bus...

[Purplepixii]

We have a ring around the moon tonight and when I researched this, it said that folklaw has is that when there is a ring around the moon, it signifies bad weather is coming. Eg a low system aka storm.

I found it interesting with what is currently showing on the models next week. Who knows ey

Source http://home.hiwaay.n.../moon/moonring/

Is it a coincidence that I saw a stunning "mackerel sky" tonight which also signifies a change in weather, this quote sounds quite apt "Small, white and fluffy cirrocumulus clouds typically consist of ice crystals and form at altitudes around 6,000 to 10,000m (18,000 t o 30,000ft). They often form well ahead of depressions and their associated fronts. Mackerel skies and mares' tails describe forms of cirrocumulus and twisted sheaves of cirrus respectively implying strong high-level winds."

[NickR]

Looking at the GFS perturbations:

further south and not so intense (still bad to v bad tho!): P1 P2 P3 P7 (this one still very intense - 950mb) P8 P15 P18

further north and more intense: P4 P20

Much further south and nothing too bad: P5

Shooting through quicker and much less intense: P6 P10 P16

Similar to main run: P9 P14 P17

Armageddon: P11 - 925mb, bye bye UK.

NOthing much going on: P12 P19

Overall there is a tendency to pull the system slightly further south - worst winds over mids and south. P11... er, let's hope not.

[Arnie Pie]

We have a ring around the moon tonight and when I researched this, it said that folklaw has is that when there is a ring around the moon, it signifies bad weather is coming. Eg a low system aka storm.

I found it interesting with what is currently showing on the models next week. Who knows ey

Source http://home.hiwaay.n.../moon/moonring/

Is it a coincidence that I saw a stunning "mackerel sky" tonight which also signifies a change in weather, this quote sounds quite apt "Small, white and fluffy cirrocumulus clouds typically consist of ice crystals and form at altitudes around 6,000 to 10,000m (18,000 t o 30,000ft). They often form well ahead of depressions and their associated fronts. Mackerel skies and mares' tails describe forms of cirrocumulus and twisted sheaves of cirrus respectively implying strong high-level winds."

Tonights moon over Birmigham

I was trying for some zoom shots when the moon had risen higher...... but had to give the idea up because of the clarity of the moon... ie fuzzy ring around it

Edited December 11, 2011 by Arnie Pie

[pyrotech]

Looking at the GFS perturbations:

further south and not so intense (still bad to v bad tho!): P1 P2 P3 P7 (this one still very intense - 950mb) P8 P15 P18

further north and more intense: P4 P20

Much further south and nothing too bad: P5

Shooting through quicker and much less intense: P6 P10 P16

Similar to main run: P9 P14 P17

Armageddon: P11 - 925mb, bye bye UK.

NOthing much going on: P12 P19

Overall there is a tendency to pull the system slightly further south - worst winds over mids and south. P11... er, let's hope not.

All the main models have the system at around 950mb with its centre over central scotland at 12z Tuesday so with such consistancy that looks safest bet so far, with winds highest in the West of UK. So Warnings from Meto seem right still. Problem normally with GFS is it often over cooks these lows, but with broad agreement with all the major players it looks like its got this one right. Fridays storm is along way off, but again broad agreement on it being even worse. With fridays storm there could be a shift of few hundred miles either way and that makes a huge difference to who gets highest winds. Will be a mad week of weather watching.

In addition some areas could see upto 5 inches of rain this week so the river cameras on floodwarn might be quite handy too

[DaBrigg]

My family must think I'm nuts, considering the expletives ive just been shouting at the PC.

As others have echoed, by far the strongest winds I have seen (on the GFS at least).

18z GFS has 850hpa winds at Dublin airport at 21z on thursday hitting 135mph, with Liverpool and Manchester hitting around 125mph, 3 hours later (bear in mind the 850hpa level is down to below 1000m close to the storm centre, so the mountains in Snowdonia would easily hit these windspeeds, sustained!

Dublin Airport: http://wxweb.meteost...0&submit=submit

Liverpool: http://wxweb.meteost...1&submit=submit

[DanN]

Couple of charts for Tuesday/Friday, showing the likely areas for the strongest gusts - according to the latest GFS output...

[ZONE 51]

is the south uk not at risk now from these 2 storms? still have warnings for mon/tues?????

hopefully not anymore cheers, andy

Monday night/Tuesday.. a battering for the The whole South and Southeast

[mardatha]

So is Scotland to get hit on tues or not?

[ZONE 51]

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

?

[ZONE 51]

Not sure if im allowed to use these chart but just want to indicate the development for the South

Edited December 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Team Jo]

My family runs a haulage business and at this point they are waiting on tomorrow night's news from ttheir contractors to confirm cancelling Tuesdays jobs. Yesterday they were told that this was a high possibility.

I can't recall this happening in 20 odd years. Even in heavy snowfall events.

[kold weather]

Monday night/Tuesday.. a battering for the The whole South and Southeast

not sure it'll be 'that' windy in the south/SE away from maybe the channel coasts and possibly the far eastern areasof Kent/East Anglia. Gusts maybe 40-50mph so a fairly decent wind bout but NOTHING compared to what more northern areas will face on Tuesday, probably will nearly double that in some parts. The only area I'd be slightly concerned with would be channel coasts and far eastern Kent, may well get upto 60-65mph IMO.

Looks like a larger system as well though the models have made it smaller and more focused in recent model suites. One of the most stormy periods of the 21st Century thus far?

[Harve]

Eek, I have a flight from East Midlands on Friday morning! Would anyone know the likelihood of it being cancelled? A quick google tells me that wind isn't so much of a problem if it's a tailwind. The gales would be westerly and the runway faces eastwards so perhaps it won't be so bad? I'm clutching straws here!

[ZONE 51]

Check out your beach wind forecast here

http://www.bigsalty....d=89&dc=weather

here is a knots-mph chart KTS to MPH 5 Knots = 5.8 MPH 10 Knots = 11.5 MPH 15 Knots = 17.3 MPH 20 Knots = 23.0 MPH 25 Knots = 28.8 MPH 30 Knots = 34.6 MPH 35 Knots = 40.3 MPH 40 Knots = 46.1 MPH 45 Knots = 51.8 MPH 50 Knots = 57.6 MPH 55 Knots = 63.4 MPH 60 Knots = 69.1 MPH 65 Knots = 74.9 MPH 70 Knots = 80.6 MPH 75 Knots = 86.4 MPH 80 Knots = 92.2 MPH 85 Knots = 97.9 MPH 90 Knots = 103.7 MPH 95 Knots = 109.4 MPH 100 Knots = 115.2 MPH 105 Knots = 121.0 MPH 110 Knots = 126.7 MPH 115 Knots = 132.5 MPH 120 Knots = 138.2 MPH 125 Knots = 144.0 MPH 130 Knots = 149.8 MPH 135 Knots = 155.5 MPH 140 Knots = 161.3 MPH 145 Knots = 167.0 MPH 150 Knots = 172.8 MPH

Edited December 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Chris D]

I have never said this but... I really hope this storm for Friday doesn't verify coz im coming home for Xmas. Im pretty concerned, especially as models have been so consistent :o

Will be monitoring the Model Discussion Thread closely this week....

not sure it'll be 'that' windy in the south/SE away from maybe the channel coasts and possibly the far eastern areasof Kent/East Anglia. Gusts maybe 40-50mph so a fairly decent wind bout but NOTHING compared to what more northern areas will face on Tuesday, probably will nearly double that in some parts. The only area I'd be slightly concerned with would be channel coasts and far eastern Kent, may well get upto 60-65mph IMO.

Looks like a larger system as well though the models have made it smaller and more focused in recent model suites. One of the most stormy periods of the 21st Century thus far?

Makes me even more concerned...

Edited December 11, 2011 by chris93

[Zenarcher]

00z GFS run has just shifted it slightly further south but the good news is it has downgraded a bit but still looking very bad for Ireland and England. Meanwhile Scotland looks to miss it completely.

[Chris D]

00z GFS run has just shifted it slightly further south but the good news is it has downgraded a bit but still looking very bad for Ireland and England. Meanwhile Scotland looks to miss it completely.

Tbh, looks to be worse for N England, especially for the coast of the NW. Not good at all. I have personally never seen such a bad storm at this timeframe heading right for the place I live which, as I've said, is quite concerning. There is nothing else to say apart from that the 00z is devastating for the NW, <~970mB of pressure, gusts over 100mph...never happened before. Hope I'm not on my own not wanting this to verify.

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

Edited December 11, 2011 by chris93

[Terminal Moraine]

The fax chart has Tuesday's low a little further north on the latest run and with a slightly slacker gradient, apart from over Northern Ireland; the squally trough and the 'almost developed' secondary have gone too. I'll be interested to see what the Met' Office's take on this is when they update their advisory. The GFS also has lower wind speeds over the bulk of England and Wales than on previous runs, though still a windy day.

With regard to Thursday night/Friday morning there's little change and this low is only just coming into range on the fax' chart.

There's still the potential for an historic storm across central England from this one.

[johnholmes]

Eek, I have a flight from East Midlands on Friday morning! Would anyone know the likelihood of it being cancelled? A quick google tells me that wind isn't so much of a problem if it's a tailwind. The gales would be westerly and the runway faces eastwards so perhaps it won't be so bad? I'm clutching straws here!

all flight take offs are INTO the surface wind at the time. Its required to get the aircraft to take off in the first place! All airlines have rules about windstrengths and cross winds that allow take off and landing, above those limits and they are not allowed.

[Polar Bear]

Hey all. Having read all these posts I best get to the model thread to see these charts. Looks interesting. Alas last time I saw a chart was on BBC news on Friday morning and I did think as I saw tuesdays low lurking out in the Atlantic what the hell is that! Fridays worries me and the chat that goes around it. Whilst we all like an historic event it does have consequences as we know. I must travel to the south coast from newbury Friday but I guess I will alter my plans and travel Thursday night. Not actually sure what the low will bring yet do we? If it is snow then I really do not fancy the six hour journey it took me last year.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Polar Bear