DanN

Not much difference on the 12z GFS-WRF with respect to wind gusts and depth of the low.

If GFS is wrong, then this WRF will also be wrong

High resolution (3km) GFS-WRF model run has the following for tomorrow afternoon, low deepens to 967mb as it moves Eastwards

It's a useful site, but should probably be noted it runs a very old version of the WRF with some basic physics.

I'd say we don't have enough data. Look at some of the convection allowing ensemble suites that are available for North America. We have a handful of deterministic CAMs to take a look at but they are limited in true value, I think. Especially for those that like to chase on a day like yesterday. I think there are also some misconceptions on how these models work, how many people realise that the WRF is not just one model? There are many flavours out there and most of them are initiated from the GFS, Netweather's NMM for example, Manunicast's WRF (very rarely gets mentioned here) or the WRF at modelzentrale.de, all with different physics. I'd love to have more data, but then I'm a storm/model junkie

Dominating.

6z WRF now produces what looks like a reasonably long lived storm, moving ~ENE from the area of surface convergence, perhaps some organisation to it as well. We shall see

Purely from a model watching point of view, I find today quite interesting to see how what may or may not develop...From a 4km WRF there is some potential showing in the 00z run but the model doesn't develop any significant convection (or precip alone!). There is an area of, perhaps weak, surface convergence in what could be a reasonable background environment. I need to try and plot the strength of the horizontal moisture convergence as I wonder, with a little more push, that could be an area to watch.

6z initialised GFS-WRF only skirting with the instability on the South coast tomorrow morning. Doesn't really make a a great deal of any convection later in the day either. Some decent looking cloud tops in that run though. Will be interesting to see what the next few runs produce.

Oh that was a good capture!

High shear, low cape environments. There are quite a few interesting papers out there (via Google) on this.

Nice!

My motivation is starting to wane too, especially for faint 3am horizon huggers. I’m sure there will be an immense late season display now my attention is drifting elsewhere

Well this is putting me off venturing out tonight…maybe it’ll clear up later.

Like others have mentioned, humidity plays a big part for how uncomfortable I find it. I'm pretty much ready to tap out at 28c though. I have a rather limited tolerance to heat and clear blue skies

There were a few reports on the Glendale app, Newcastle...Belfast...so they were out there, but I saw nothing this far South.

Yea, nothing over this way at all.

Nothing between 2-3am either.

A strip of cloud in an otherwise clear sky….you can guess in which direction needs to get a shift on and move.

Was just about to say the same. Meerkat pose at the window has been adopted.

Cloudy here. And I have to be up early

Petrichor WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Petrichor is the smell of rain. The word comes from the Greek words 'petra', meaning stone, and 'ichor', which in Greek mythology refers to the golden fluid that...

Yes, just checked my Lightroom catalog and that was a good night. I think the night I remember was 23rd June 2021, that was a high display and was probably the best in the last few years for me. Actually the most ridiculous hobby I could have bought into

2020 maybe the year I am remembering.

I've found it about the same as last year, and both years can be summed up as lame. A few years ago we had some excellent displays, one of which I distinctly remember at about 10:30pm, huge overhead display, which my wife doesn't forget either because I hung up the phone to her as it was happening (gotta go!) I'll prob be on the hunt for another week or so, depending on cloud cover of course.