Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[VillagePlank]

GFS supports the forecast that the SE (say a line between Norwich, the IoW and everything SE of that line) is likely to see the strongest winds as the low pressure clears mainland Britain. Tuesday looks like 40kt sustained winds, and Friday looks about the same - at the moment, with gusts somewhere between 65 -80 mph, perhaps less on Tues, and more confined to Kent.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Robbie Garrett]

GFS supports the forecast that the SE (say a line between Norwich, the IoW and everything SE of that line) is likely to see the strongest winds as the low pressure clears mainland Britain. Tuesday looks like 40kt sustained winds, and Friday looks about the same - at the moment.

Metoffice are giving slightly higher winds on Thursday night than monday night, so they are well aware of it. Updated at 1055z

[Upgrade]

Don't think I would want to take the night ferry to the IOM on Thursday.

any ship on the sea would be sunk and everyone drowned!

[Snowyowl9]

Tuesday`s gales to severe gales don`t look to much of a threat now,it doesn`t look as severe as scotlands storm last week,but stronger winds will be more widespread.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

As for friday it looks as most charts seem to show this storm much more s-ly track so the north could just go through the centre of the low and the south gets severe gales to storm force damaging winds as it currently stands.

Lots could change yet.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[SP1986]

http://forum.netweat..._1#entry1625862

Brilliant thanks, didn't realise there was a thread on this here

[knightrider]

Tuesday`s gales to severe gales don`t look to much of a threat now,it doesn`t look as severe as scotlands storm last week,but stronger winds will be more widespread.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack1a.gif

As for friday it looks as most charts seem to show this storm much more s-ly track so the north could just go through the centre of the low and the south gets severe gales to storm force damaging winds as it currently stands.

Lots could change yet.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

I think Tuesaday will be quite bad but it's Friday that's really giving me cause for concern that could seriously be a disasterous storm especially if it has a big impact on the largely populated areas!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Pulled of Met monkey: Severe Gales 70mph + winds

1800 12/12/11----->1800 13/12/11

Another rapidly deepening Atlantic Low pressure system will sweep in on Monday to be centered off NW Scotland by 1800 Monday 12/12/11

will develop around its southern flank with particuler concern for damaging gusts on Western coasts and high ground later Monday into the early hours of Tuesday. This risk transfers Eastward along Southern coasts and hills during Tuesday. Gusts up to and in excess of 70mph are likely. I

Its possible that inland parts of Northern England and perhaps the South of Scotland could see these speeds in the early part of Tuesday.

Damage to power supplies, trees, and minor structural damage are possible.

will devlop widely over all other parts of England and Wales with gusting to 60mph possible.

Stay safe and once again batten down the hatches

[Coast]

Tuesday`s gales to severe gales don`t look to much of a threat now,it doesn`t look as severe as scotlands storm last week,but stronger winds will be more widespread.

I'm not so sure:

The Met Office has issued yellow warnings for strong winds and heavy rain on Monday night for most of England, with the South East expected to be hit hard. Windy weather is expected to continue into Tuesday, with the potential for "severe gales" or storm-force winds across Northern Ireland and the southern half of Britain. There could also be frequent, heavy showers, bringing the risk of surface water flooding.

Aisling Creevey, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, the weather forecasting arm of the Press Association, said it was too early to tell where the winds would hit. She said the country could expect winds of between 80mph and 100mph.

A Met Office spokesman said: "Strong winds on Monday evening have the potential to cause some disruption, especially in areas exposed to the south. In addition, rain will turn persistent and heavy, bringing the risk of surface water flooding over south-west England and Wales."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jX74rd4Zy9kzMtkmwDMnfOQjOMBg?docId=N0384791323572209031A

[VillagePlank]

Metoffice are giving slightly higher winds on Thursday night than monday night, so they are well aware of it. Updated at 1055z

We can't see into the early hours Friday, yet, so we can't quite compare - the south coast looks a bit breezy Monday night!

Incidentally, as a rule of thumb, my view is that gusts of 60mph are where the likelyhood of damage to (weak) property becomes 50/50 (evens) With sustained winds that speed reduces to 50mph. The MetO forecast, in this vein, is not for widespread destruction, nor damage, in this neck of the woods - although some is likely along the southern coasts.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[lorenzo]

Thanks BW,

Quite difficult to judge at this range I imagine but at 24 hours we should therefore have a better idea.

It certainly doesn't look great for the middle part of the UK, that's for sure.

Suggestion for mods - is it possible to have a more technical storm discussion page. Posts like Icebergs and BW's are getting lost in the squabbles of will it be 80 or 90mph!!

I second that. Would be good to have the analysis I can learn from in one place !

This link i marked from last week is excellent for overlaying satellite with other figures, It showed the deepening phase well.

http://www.eumetrain.org/eport/euro_18.php?width=1280&height=800&date=2011120718

[knightrider]

All in all I would Tuesday's storm has the pottencial to be as big as the January 2007 storm and Friday's has pottencial to be even bigger possibly on a par with the October 2000 storm!

[Snow and storms]

The south of the country rarely ever sees these kind of wind speeds and is a much more populated area, The trees have not been battered by these kind of winds for a long time and neither have our structures. I think if you took the same wind speed to hit north and south the south would come off a lot worse. We are not called southern softies for no reason

[VillagePlank]

Yes - fortunately, not many trees have leaves on them, now!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The south of the country rarely ever sees these kind of wind speeds and is a much more populated area, The trees have not been battered by these kind of winds for a long time and neither have our structures. I think if you took the same wind speed to hit north and south the south would come off a lot worse. We are not called southern softies for no reason

Lol Southern softies..Where I am from..There ain' no soft people they are all rough as hell

[knightrider]

The south of the country rarely ever sees these kind of wind speeds and is a much more populated area, The trees have not been battered by these kind of winds for a long time and neither have our structures. I think if you took the same wind speed to hit north and south the south would come off a lot worse. We are not called southern softies for no reason

Lol so true Although I think if winds of anywhere in the region of 100mph hit it's harsh to call anyone softies when people start panicking, even the Scotts dont get winds of that magnitude too often although more frequently then us Southerners admitadly. I still think the worst storm to hit the UK was the 87 storm which effected SE england worst, when you look at the average windspeeds and the damage it caused over a billion £'s worth of insurance claims, 15 million trees uprooted, and something like 20 people killed.

Country Tracks forecast for the week ahead comming up on BBC1 anytime soon.

[mardatha]

Scotts is porridge oats, Scotch is whisky, Scots are people

You'll survive, stop worrying. You'll deal with it and get through it, England will still be afloat, and life will go on. It probably looks and sounds scary but it doesnt blow every house down or every tree down or sink ever ship, no storm does. Get candles/lamps, a camp stove, bottled water and plenty milk & bread in, just in case the power goes off. I know you'll all be fine ! xx

[Lauren]

Oh Coast those most recent charts you posted makes it look much more juicy for the south!

DISCLAIMER: Yes, I do want some decent weather, I enjoy it. I also hope that everyone is safe.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Lauren

[knightrider]

Scotts is porridge oats, Scotch is whisky, Scots are people

You'll survive, stop worrying. You'll deal with it and get through it, England will still be afloat, and life will go on. It probably looks and sounds scary but it doesnt blow every house down or every tree down or sink ever ship, no storm does. Get candles/lamps, a camp stove, bottled water and plenty milk & bread in, just in case the power goes off. I know you'll all be fine ! xx

Some of us will be fine not all of us, saying all of us will be fine could curse someone so be careful what you say! Not all houses or trees will get blown over no but alot could

[dubmuffin]

Well in the absence of a snow watch thread I am now addicted to storm watching. Certainly an interesting week coming up and looks like a chance of stocking up on wood for next year if a few trees come down.

[mardatha]

Think positive ! xxx

[Liam J]

My god, GFS 6z has sustained winds of 68mph and gusts of 90-100mph for my area overnight into Friday! What is this talk of 100mph winds in the south? I can't see it, areas between south Scotland and north Wales should be worried. nearly hurricane force winds over land !

[VillagePlank]

Country-track's forecast saying that they're expecting something 'big' but the track is uncertain at the moment.

[Dorsetbred]

Country-track's forecast saying that they're expecting something 'big' but the track is uncertain at the moment.

And if you missed it, check out Terratec365 on youtube in a few minutes

[NO LONGER POSTING]

My god, GFS 6z has sustained winds of 68mph and gusts of 90-100mph for my area overnight into Friday! What is this talk of 100mph winds in the south? I can't see it, areas between south Scotland and north Wales should be worried. nearly hurricane force winds over land !

Have a look at the graphs I know not 100mph..But it is going to be very windy..100mph is a bit ott

[knightrider]

My god, GFS 6z has sustained winds of 68mph and gusts of 90-100mph for my area overnight into Friday! What is this talk of 100mph winds in the south? I can't see it, areas between south Scotland and north Wales should be worried. nearly hurricane force winds over land !

Judging by the Country Tracks forecast I have just seen I'd go along with that their graphics suggested that both storms will take a more northerly track then 1st suggested but other areas could still see gales/severe gales 45-65mph, but the storm/hurricane gusts 75-100mph will be mostly over Northern Ireland, England, possibly Wales and certainly Scotland, although Peter Gibbs did say dont take the current predicted track for Friday's storm too seriously yet as the forecast could change!