Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Jayces]

Well that surely is odd?

I've heard of talk in the past of missing data in model runs, could that be what has happened to the ECM or has it picked up something else that the other models haven't seen?

Also correct me if I am wrong but over the weekend model runs are purely computer generated whereas during the week they have human input so it could be a computer glitch?

I've seen storms disappear before but usually from one run to the next on one model but not like this where it has been consistent across all models for a number of runs.

I'm no expert but regarding some of the comments saying the other models will have to follow the ECM seim a bit premature, surely there's a chance the ECM is completely wrong?

Edited December 11, 2011 by Jayces

[VillagePlank]

Lots of pieces of the jigsaw to fall into place, yet. The main pieces aren't even progged to start until midnight tonight. I've tried to give a readable guide, here

[Zenarcher]

Well that surely is odd?

I've heard of talk in the past of missing data in model runs, could that be what has happened to the ECM or has it picked up something else that the other models haven't seen?

Also correct me if I am wrong but over the weekend model runs are purely computer generated whereas during the week they have human input so it could be a computer glitch?

I've seen storms disappear before but usually from one run to the next on one model but not like this where it has been consistent across all models for a number of runs.

I'm no expert but regarding some of the comments saying the other models will have to follow the ECM seim a bit premature, surely there's a chance the ECM is completely wrong?

Looking at the ECM 00z run it does downgrade the storm before it hits like the 12z ECM run however on the previous run the storm ran into another low which made it power up over the UK. On the 12z run this low seems to have gone and the cooler air with it making the storm very weak.

[Chris D]

Well that surely is odd?

I've heard of talk in the past of missing data in model runs, could that be what has happened to the ECM or has it picked up something else that the other models haven't seen?

Also correct me if I am wrong but over the weekend model runs are purely computer generated whereas during the week they have human input so it could be a computer glitch?

I've seen storms disappear before but usually from one run to the next on one model but not like this where it has been consistent across all models for a number of runs.

I'm no expert but regarding some of the comments saying the other models will have to follow the ECM seim a bit premature, surely there's a chance the ECM is completely wrong?

Yes it is premature. You have to remember that we have had such incredible consistency between most of the models and model runs at a remarkable timeframe (just over a week out) - only for the ECM to come along 4 days before the event and say no to it all.

That being said, I have witnessed some big backtracks on models before.

Edited December 11, 2011 by chris93

[weatherobsuk]

Could be one reason for recent downgrade by Met Office warnings for Thurs, picking up on something ahead of this model run perhaps?

[Chris D]

Could be one reason for recent downgrade by Met Office warnings for Thurs, picking up on something ahead of this model run perhaps?

What downgrade? The warning hasn't changed?

[Downburst]

This type of storm is a close run thing as to weather if forms or not, it's an exponential growth, so clearly if the initial kick off doesn't happen then we don't get the massive end result.

Still will have to wait for another run or two and perhaps learn a lesson, the weather is chaotic and complicated.

[Jayces]

What downgrade? The warning hasn't changed?

I was thinking the same thing, the warning for Thursday was put up today and it's still there.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well it's peeing it down here at the moment..LOL

[Liam J]

Could be one reason for recent downgrade by Met Office warnings for Thurs, picking up on something ahead of this model run perhaps?

No downgrade of warnings yet, I don't think they will on just one model run loosing the storm, perhaps if the other models follow the ECM the warnings will be removed tomorrow.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Marie]

Well it's peeing it down here at the moment..LOL

snap here too

[Roger J Smith]

The dramatic change on the ECM model seems related to its development at 72h of a strong hang-back secondary trough that rotates around the first (Mon-Tues) storm. This would be related to a flattening of the jet stream that would suppress the second major energy centre and keep it more of an open frontal wave than a mature cyclone. However, it could be entirely wrong too, when all the other models have continued with the theme of explosive cyclogenesis on Thursday.

I would be cautious about taking this ECM downgrade as some definitive end for the storm, quite possibly the model will backtrack on its next run. Also, it does not entirely lose the storm, strong winds could be expected for the south with the new evolution. On first assessment, I don't have much confidence in it though.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

snap here too

haha Well I think we got a lot more rain to come here in the south over the coming days:P this rain should clear through soon

[Lauren]

Well it's peeing it down here at the moment..LOL

It's heading towards me by the looks of things.

[Evening thunder]

Looking at the ECM I think it would still create a tight circulation as it passes over the south with some very strong winds possible, but it skips over between the charts which we see at 24 hour intervals. Of course it would be nothing compared to what parts of the UK would get if the GFS came off!

Looking at the charts of it's approach the ECM seems to develop a second low/circulation/trough on the WSW side of the low, which I would imagine disrupts the flow hinders the development of the main low? (which I believe is technically a secondary low it's self) However it is only one run and such a small feature is of course likely to not be correct or change at this range, It is one possibility for the low on Friday.

Edit: I see Roger J Smith beat me and mentions this.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Liam J]

Lets have a look at the 12z model suite with the intensity and position of the storm, no prizes for guessing the odd one out!

I don't buy the ECM evolution one bit, all the other models have maintained a very intense depression using the data available for the 12z runs but the ECM has gone way off it and I suspect it's rougue outlier.

However it may be onto a new trend, but at this moment I wouldn't place any confidence with the ECM 12z and I doubt any forecaster will either until the next run or another model totally backs off.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's heading towards me by the looks of things.

It's really heavy now!! Proper good old big rain drops

[coldfingers]

I posted this on the regional thread but very quiet on there so I will ask the same question here.

Does anyone know how likely the strong winds are for down on the South Coast on Friday? Only asking as my son has his driving test in Chichester on Friday and the winds look like being fairly strong. Currently it is showing gale 8 to gale 9. if it doesn't go higher he shouldn't get the test cancelled I think. However is there any chance this could still develop to a storm? Thanks if anyone can answer.

[bobbydog]

Lets have a look at the 12z model suite with the intensity and position of the storm, no prizes for guessing the odd one out!

I don't buy the ECM evolution one bit, all the other models have maintained a very intense depression using the data available for the 12z runs but the ECM has gone way off it and I suspect it's rougue outlier.

However it may be onto a new trend, but at this moment I wouldn't place any confidence with the ECM 12z and I doubt any forecaster will either until the next run or another model totally backs off.

lol the GEM has us disappearing down a black hole!!!

[Dorsetbred]

lol the GEM has us disappearing down a black hole!!!

Or up it's own bottom

[Polar Bear]

Lets have a look at the 12z model suite with the intensity and position of the storm, no prizes for guessing the odd one out!

I don't buy the ECM evolution one bit, all the other models have maintained a very intense depression using the data available for the 12z runs but the ECM has gone way off it and I suspect it's rougue outlier.

However it may be onto a new trend, but at this moment I wouldn't place any confidence with the ECM 12z and I doubt any forecaster will either until the next run or another model totally backs off.

On the UKMO run where is the UK? ....it is oblitarated by it it seems.

[Jayces]

I posted this on the regional thread but very quiet on there so I will ask the same question here.

Does anyone know how likely the strong winds are for down on the South Coast on Friday? Only asking as my son has his driving test in Chichester on Friday and the winds look like being fairly strong. Currently it is showing gale 8 to gale 9. if it doesn't go higher he shouldn't get the test cancelled I think. However is there any chance this could still develop to a storm? Thanks if anyone can answer.

Too early to say especially seeing as the ECM has just thrown a spanner into the works and reduced the storm potential significantly.

[Evening thunder]

I have just remembered that you can get ECM model data in 3 hour intervals showing wind speed amongst other variables on Weather Underground! This should give us more idea about what it shows.

Click here and on the side select 'ECMWF' then map type etc (with 'MSL' move the slider ahead at least 3 hours for it to show properly) or go to the Wunderground homepage and from the 'maps and radar' drop down click 'model maps' then do the same as above.

The 12z run shows a smaller less strong low crossing the south (still gales-severe gales on the South coast) but nothing like the 00z (which you can also view).

I remember someone posting this a while back somewhere (I think it was kold weather) which is who I found this from so I can't take all the credit for finding this.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

blimey this rain is HEAVY!!!!

[coldfingers]

Too early to say especially seeing as the ECM has just thrown a spanner into the works and reduced the storm potential significantly.

Thanks Jayces for the answer, I have just been reading back for more info but I suppose it is still a very fluid situation. Looks like I have to cross my fingers for him. He really can't afford to have his test cancelled as htere is a six week waiting list.