Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[P-M]

Some of us will be fine not all of us, saying all of us will be fine could curse someone so be careful what you say! Not all houses or trees will get blown over no but alot could

I totally disagree.... If 80-100mph winds hit the north and south at the same time, the structures would have the same chance of damage. This "the south fare worse" rubbish is a state of mind,. Yes you have more chance of people seriously injured etc in a storm as more people live down there but it's how you deal with it. All this "we are worse off down here" is total rubbish. Just enjoy the severe weather as this is after all an enthusiasts forum (obviously spare a thought for people really affected). Northern structures are not made with re-enforced materials we have the same bricks as you!

It was the same when the snows arrived last year - Scotland and the NE had bucket loads before the transport was affected seriously and London had a few CM's and the whole Capital ground to a stand still... toughen up and enjoy what Mother Nature throws at you we could all be looking at grey murky dross for weeks on end!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

BRING IT ON I SAY!!!!

Met office has updated its warnings..

[Lauren]

Elsewhere on the internet people seem to be making out this is an apocalyptical storm

[knightrider]

Going by the atlantic preassure charts and the speed and size of the wind arrows passing over the country on the Country Tracks forecast I'm expecting it to be a very windy week everywhere but nothing exceptional in the south more so from the Midlands northwards.

[Lauren]

I don't know if this an issue or not, but the charts they are using in this thread (website for Conspiracy nuts) stolen from here, or are they avliable for all. it's just that I've only ever seen them used on here.

Sorry if I'm totally wrong. makes funny reading though.

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread784632/pg1

[knightrider]

BRING IT ON I SAY!!!!

Met office has updated its warnings..

It would appear MetO have got the south-west as the most likely area to see the disruptive and damaging gusts but according the the wind speed arrows the strongest gusts appear to be along the south facing Kent coast with some in access of 75mph so it's all still a little bit uncertain I still think the people working at the weather centre are scratching their heads trying to figure this 1 out which is pretty poor considering we are less then 72 hours away now, Peter Gibbs certainly suggested it will be a busy week at the Met Office which sugggests to me their all getting headaches trying to make an accurate forecast. I remember the 2000 and 2002 storms where predicted 5 days in advance spot on without much hesitation so why in 2011 are they taking so long to pinpoint where and how hard these storms are going to hit?

And by the way Friday's low is definately the one to watch, it looks like an absolute monster and I think Scotland will get hit particularly hard by this if the current track is anything to go by.

[lorenzo]

Many queries around the track of the LP systems for Tuesday and Thurs / Friday. Below is animation of the Peak Gusts expected throughout the week.

Link here, select as per screen grab and hit the play button circled in red.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It would appear MetO have got the south-west as the most likely area to see the disruptive and damaging gusts but according the the wind speed arrows the strongest gusts appear to be along the south facing Kent coast with some in access of 75mph so it's all still a little bit uncertain I still think the people working at the weather centre are scratching their heads trying to figure this 1 out which is pretty poor considering we are less then 72 hours away now, Peter Gibbs certainly suggested it will be a busy week at the Met Office which sugggests to me their all getting headaches trying to make an accurate forecast. I remember the 2000 and 2002 storms where predicted 5 days in advance spot on without much hesitation so why in 2011 are they taking so long to pinpoint where and how hard these storms are going to hit?

I agree, i think there are so many factors to play with here.... I remember the 2007 storm I think it was that year.. all my fences blew down :s

[gottolovethisweather]

Windy all the way next week, is the best way to sum it up.

Monday (tomorrow) could be interesting in the Southwest and Wales initially, with the risk extending to the Southern coastal and SouthEastern regions, come late afternoon into the evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday generally breezy/windy over a vast part of the country but it will be the GUSTINESS of the winds that will be of note.

Thursday into Friday, it's RAMPING UP again.

At this stage, the timing and positioning of the bands of rain are of particular interest because there COULD be a wintry mix in places at times. I'm paying particular attention to overnight Tuesday at this moment in time, for folk down south, maybe some hill snow briefly?

All my analysis is taken from the MetO output ONLY.

Stay Safe all.

gottolovethisweather

[dubmuffin]

My interpretation of the countrywise forecast and the latest MetO update is that things are going to be windy here but not really stormforce, perhaps a few big gusts but nothing spectacular or particularly memorable, which is a shame from my extreme weather loving perspective. Bit of a downgrade after all these forum reports getting my hopes up. All eyes to friday then...

[Jane Louise]

I don't know if this an issue or not, but the charts they are using in this thread (website for Conspiracy nuts) stolen from here, or are they avliable for all. it's just that I've only ever seen them used on here.

Sorry if I'm totally wrong. makes funny reading though.

http://www.abovetops...hread784632/pg1

Lol, ATS, a very entertaining site. I enjoy reading their armeggedon predictions. I knew there would be a thread on there soon about the upcoming Atlantic storms! :lol:

[Mark Bayley]

Updated 6-15 day forecast for the UK. A risk of exceptionally strong winds..

Starting very unsettled and stormy with a risk of exceptionally strong winds and potentially damaging gusts. This will be coupled with bands of heavy rain, with hill snow in the north, followed by squally showers.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/yh/yh_forecast_weather.html

Edited December 11, 2011 by Mark Bayley

[Jayces]

It would appear MetO have got the south-west as the most likely area to see the disruptive and damaging gusts but according the the wind speed arrows the strongest gusts appear to be along the south facing Kent coast with some in access of 75mph so it's all still a little bit uncertain I still think the people working at the weather centre are scratching their heads trying to figure this 1 out which is pretty poor considering we are less then 72 hours away now, Peter Gibbs certainly suggested it will be a busy week at the Met Office which sugggests to me their all getting headaches trying to make an accurate forecast. I remember the 2000 and 2002 storms where predicted 5 days in advance spot on without much hesitation so why in 2011 are they taking so long to pinpoint where and how hard these storms are going to hit?

And by the way Friday's low is definately the one to watch, it looks like an absolute monster and I think Scotland will get hit particularly hard by this if the current track is anything to go by.

They have put out warnings where they think it will be hitting, what more do you want them to do?

It's a fact that nobody on the planet can accurately predict weather days ahead yet. By that I mean the exact track of the storm so all they can do is give early warnings and then narrow those down as the timeframe gets smaller which is what they are doing.

Look at the National Hurricane Centre in US, they can never give the exact location of landfall of the eye of the storm until an hour or so out as it can and often will move several miles sometimes.

I think the Meto have done all they can with the technology and knowledge they have at their disposal.

[knightrider]

Interestingly GFS has gusts consistantly of around 60mph for London on Friday so I think if SE is going to see any kind of storm at all it'll be Friday and not Tuesday, the highest it goes for Tuesday's event is around midnight tommorow night with a brief spell of 50mph gusts!

They have put out warnings where they think it will be hitting, what more do you want them to do?

It's a fact that nobody on the planet can accurately predict weather days ahead yet. By that I mean the exact track of the storm so all they can do is give early warnings and then narrow those down as the timeframe gets smaller which is what they are doing.

Look at the National Hurricane Centre in US, they can never give the exact location of landfall of the eye of the storm until an hour or so out as it can and often will move several miles sometimes.

I think the Meto have done all they can with the technology and knowledge they have at their disposal.

Well 10 years ago they seemed more confident in thier predictions many days in advance and rarely where they prooved wrong then in 2007 I think it was they changed their computer graphics and ever since alot of forecasts have been abit sketchy, at least that's the way it seems to me!

[Richie V]

Yikes!

Douglas down as 104 MPH at 00:00 Fri.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Richie V

[egret]

I totally disagree.... If 80-100mph winds hit the north and south at the same time, the structures would have the same chance of damage. This "the south fare worse" rubbish is a state of mind,. Yes you have more chance of people seriously injured etc in a storm as more people live down there but it's how you deal with it. All this "we are worse off down here" is total rubbish. Just enjoy the severe weather as this is after all an enthusiasts forum (obviously spare a thought for people really affected). Northern structures are not made with re-enforced materials we have the same bricks as you!

It was the same when the snows arrived last year - Scotland and the NE had bucket loads before the transport was affected seriously and London had a few CM's and the whole Capital ground to a stand still... toughen up and enjoy what Mother Nature throws at you we could all be looking at grey murky dross for weeks on end!

This is not strictly true as the codes of practice for structural design of buildings as well as for detailing such items as windows and roof coverings take account of a number of factors including geographical location and local exposure. Hence 100mph is of considerably greater significance to buildings erected in normally sheltered locations than to those in coastal locations and the north of UK.

In truth however those buildings that fail tend to be those with inherent defects and those subjected to freak gusts, such as along squall lines.

My personal belief is that Fridays weather does need watching carefully and I fear for anyone whose property is affected at this time as the nation's building industry pretty much shuts down for two weeks at Christmas. Even if builders are working, they will find material difficult to source at short notice.

Edited December 11, 2011 by egret

[knightrider]

Yikes!

Douglas down as 104 MPH at 00:00 Fri.

Crickey, 940mb that's insane that's like a cat 4 hurricane! Even the SE has a preassure gradient of 980mb.

I'm off guys but I might be back on later, if not then tommorow evening as the 1st storm closes in

[essex coast matt]

For the south east coast looking fairly bad monday eve between 6pm and 12am think, maybe gusts upto 60mph on coast from the SSW, with heavy rain.

[legritter]

met office just updated warnings about 12.35 . loads of horror stories appearing on internet ,lets hope its an interesting week , but everyone stays safe cheers ,legritter

[Summer Sun]

The met office have early yellow warnings out for late Thursday the following areas are under a warning

Strathclyde

SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

Wales

West Midlands

South West England

Issued at: 1235 on Sun 11 Dec 2011

Valid from: 1800 on Thu 15 Dec 2011

Valid to: 2359 on Thu 15 Dec 2011

Rapidly strengthening winds and heavy rain are likely to arrive across the west later on Thursday, heralding another potentially stormy period. The public is advised to monitor warnings for this period, noting that the alert is likely to be extended into Friday in due course.

Chief Forecasters Assessment

Yet another intense depression will be bearing down on the British Isles later on Thursday, threatening some potentially disruptive weather. Please watch this space!

Edited December 11, 2011 by Gavin D

[gottolovethisweather]

For the south east coast looking fairly bad monday eve between 6pm and 12am think, maybe gusts upto 60mph on coast from the SSW, with heavy rain.

Indeed, see my post no. 234.

I know attention is being drawn to Thursday/Friday's megastorm at t+120 and of course, quite rightly.

However, folks should not take their eye off the ball on possible upgrades/downgrades in the nearer term. Falling slates,trees,flooding and general damage to buildings all over the UK is the ISSUE to focus on, IMHO for the WHOLE WEEK IN GENERAL.

It may sound like unjustified hype at times, but the Beeb/MetO have been not been mincing their words here and I'll be watching each and every updated forecast from now on.

Stormy Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 11, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[glasgow-guy]

after what Scotland got battered with England can have this storm all to there self last Monday for me was frightening

[VillagePlank]

Latest MetO warnings suggest LP to track across N Scotland, leaving the whole of Britain at risk to some degree or another - be interesting to see where the orange warnings are located.

[Liam J]

Back online at last!! 48 hours with no home phone/broadband!

Catastrophic damage would occur with this storm, 80mph+ sustained winds over the Irish Sea overnight into Friday with winds over Northern England of 70mph+ over land! Gusts could easily reach 100-110mph. I don't even think you would be safe in your house tbh with a risk of massive structural damage.

I hope this downgrades or moves away from the UK, people would be killed, Christmas would be ruined at the very least with damage to your house which for some would be extensive and there would be major power supply outages.

[Matty M]

Back online at last!! 48 hours with no home phone/broadband!

Catastrophic damage would occur with this storm, 80mph+ sustained winds over the Irish Sea overnight into Friday with winds over Northern England of 70mph+ over land! Gusts could easily reach 100-110mph. I don't even think you would be safe in your house tbh with a risk of massive structural damage.

I hope this downgrades or moves away from the UK, people would be killed, Christmas would be ruined at the very least with damage to your house which for some would be extensive and there would be major power supply outages.

I think most would be okay in their homes as unlike many US home, Irish and UK homes are usually much better built.

It would be a case of stay in doors, a few things might hit your winds and you might lose a shed but if the right level of warning was issued i think we would get through it. Although major power outages are inevitable if a storm per 6z struck. Dublin is very exposed to westerly and northwesterlies and the charts really look extremely worrying for this area. It looks quite similar to the Christmas eve storm of 1997, although even more intense on the last charts.,