Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[Lauren]

Looking at various sources the gust speed for Tuesday is looking to be between 50 - 60 and on Friday between 60 - 79.

It also seems to be that rain and storm potential is worse for Friday. Is that accurate?

I think I'll have to play the rather frustrating game of 'wait and see'.

[The Northern Ramper]

12z is a very violent storm, GFS goes for 160km/h (100mph) gusts on Friday morning for much of Northwest England, N Ireland, most of Eire and North Wales. Probably overdone, but pretty impressive to see on a chart.

I hope there is a downgrade or position switch, my location is quite exposed on a west facing hill and i fancy having a roof for xmas.

[martinj2]

12z is a very violent storm, GFS goes for 160km/h (100mph) gusts on Friday morning for much of Northwest England, N Ireland, most of Eire and North Wales. Probably overdone, but pretty impressive to see on a chart.

I reckon you'll be right in the firing line if this comes off SP

[SP1986]

I reckon you'll be right in the firing line if this comes off SP

It does seem so if the wind direction keeps as it shows, some severe gusts funnelling down the Dee Estuary.

[Snowyowl9]

Storm force winds theres no doubt about friday`s GFS charts southern scotland/northern england gusts 100mph + exposed parts of Wales 80/90mph gusts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

It`ll downgrade by then a touch.

[kold weather]

GFS is really just a wow set-up, its about the same strength as the last system that rolled through but main zone for higher winds looks further south, right through some pretty densely populated areas as well...

[NickR]

Storm force winds theres no doubt about friday`s GFS charts southern scotland/northern england gusts 100mph + exposed parts of Wales 80/90mph gusts.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1141.png

It`ll downgrade by then a touch.

Bit further south, actually:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn10812.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn11412.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn12012.png

[geoffw]

could this storm on friday be worse than boxing day 1998?

[Snowyowl9]

Compare with tuesday`s with SW-ly severe gales for the north again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

[wimblettben]

could this storm on friday be worse than boxing day 1998?

I would say unlikely at this stage but it probably wouldn't be far from it.

[DaBrigg]

Midnight Friday, parts of Northern Ireland lie under near calm conditions, while hurricane force 12 winds, in excess of 80mph sustained, covers a large swathe of the Irish Sea. Unbelievable. Northwest Wales gets clobbered.

[Dorsetbred]

Still all to play for on Friday, but I think the initial analysis of it running through the channel is now way off the mark, as it does the "usual" track to the north (more to what I'd expect to be honest) as the models come to grip with this.

[wimblettben]

Midnight Friday, parts of Northern Ireland lie under near calm conditions, while hurricane force 12 winds, in excess of 80mph sustained, covers a large swathe of the Irish Sea. Unbelievable. Northwest Wales gets clobbered.

Is that mean speeds or just gusts because if it is gusts then inland in southern england will be windy but not damaging as it shows 30mph?

Please correct me if I am reading it wrong as I don't wan't to sound as if I am being annoying.

[Bluebreezer54]

Theres an awful lot of hype and ramping going on here. Its a given that this week will be windy in many places, but some of the armaggedon posts are way over the top. Time to sit back and chill a touch I think.

[Cloud 10]

Time to sit back and chill a touch I think.

If those charts come off for friday quite a few people will be sitting chilling because they will have no electricity and no heating!

Its easy to forget about tuesday's severe gales with so much going on.

[DaBrigg]

Is that mean speeds or just gusts because if it is gusts then inland in southern england will be windy but not damaging as it shows 30mph?

Please correct me if I am reading it wrong as I don't wan't to sound as if I am being annoying.

Meanspeeds at 10m above ground level, but the GFS may be overdoing it a little.

Theres an awful lot of hype and ramping going on here. Its a given that this week will be windy in many places, but some of the armaggedon posts are way over the top. Time to sit back and chill a touch I think.

Model run after model run shows the possibility an exceptional wind event. If highlighting what the charts actually show is considered hyping and ramping, so be it! What else can we do, bury our heads in the sand and ignore them?

Most of us realize the track and intensity of the storm is subject to change, but it doesnt mean we cant discuss what the charts actuallly show right now!

Edited December 11, 2011 by DaBrigg

[Liam J]

could this storm on friday be worse than boxing day 1998?

It could be as severe or possibly worse.

Comparing the charts from the night of Boxing day 1998 to the currently progged charts for the end of this week, it looks more severe.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[wimblettben]

This was one of the weather forecasts we had on the day before the friday night into saturday storm of the 13th and 14th of november 2009. A number of places hit 70mph or more on coasts that day and it has never seemed that windy here since that day.

Is this the sort of forecast we may see for down here in terms of wind speeds on fridays storm if it were to come off?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl1LXVQN_xo

Edited December 11, 2011 by wimblettben

[Teesdale]

If those charts come off for friday quite a few people will be sitting chilling because they will have no electricity and no heating!

Its easy to forget about tuesday's severe gales with so much going on.

Well said, look how the area's of concern have shifted in the last 24 hrs.

More upland snow, more flooding with the snow melt and heavy rain later in the week.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Teesdale

[Matty M]

ECM not keen on developing the system!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If this was to pull of Friday..I think this would be a bit more widespread than just the areas on talk at the moment...

But God help the north....

[Zenarcher]

12z ECM has downgraded it a lot!

Hope its right.

[SP1986]

Probably quite a relief then for a few people, in my opinion, if the ECM had downgraded it, it probably won't back track on itself meaning the GFS will have to back down now to an extent, but a few people were expecting downgrades.

[jean91]

The south of the country rarely ever sees these kind of wind speeds and is a much more populated area, The trees have not been battered by these kind of winds for a long time and neither have our structures. I think if you took the same wind speed to hit north and south the south would come off a lot worse. We are not called southern softies for no reason

Ok so in Paris we really are southerners then!!!!!!!

[Liam J]

12z ECM has downgraded it a lot!

Hope its right.

A lot? Nearly removed it altogether, just a breeze now! lol

Maybe best wait for the ECM 00z run to make sure it's correct, unless GFS 18z backs off as well.

Very odd ECM run tbh, all of a sudden the storm is gone, a bit suspect.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J