Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[DanN]

Last weeks low was still under it's rapid deepening phase as it hit Scotland where as the low for Monday/Tuesday is already at it's deepest as it approaches? Would this limit it's potency somewhat? I can see the risk of strong gusts still etc but was wondering about this difference and it's impact?

[Lynxus]

Last weeks low was still under it's rapid deepening phase as it hit Scotland where as the low for Monday/Tuesday is already at it's deepest as it approaches? Would this limit it's potency somewhat? I can see the risk of strong gusts still etc but was wondering about this difference and it's impact?

From what I can tell, The storm on tuesday could be lower in pressure than the one last week.

Deepening or not, It would be more potent.

The one on friday just looks scary and could cause major damage, Esp new the coasts

[weatherobsuk]

I think a few of us need to calm down a little and think with a straight head. There's still little over 5 days away from Thurs/Fridays event and anything can happen in the runs before that, yes it would be nice to have something different for a change weather-wise but companies especially retailers could do without this so close to the Christmas rush. Talk of Mandatory Coastal Evacs even before the track or intensity is finalised is scaremongering especially to those whomn may be reading this and have no clue about the weather or what GFS/ECMWF means.

We should really focus on Tuesdays event before getting ahead of ourselves.

[DanN]

From what I can tell, The storm on tuesday could be lower in pressure than the one last week.

Deepening or not, It would be more potent.

The one on friday just looks scary and could cause major damage, Esp new the coasts

Just trying to get my head around the rapid cyclogenesis part, I thought the deepening stage had more dry air available which in turn increases the strength of the gusts. Not to say it won't be windy though :-)

Edited December 10, 2011 by danuk

[BleakMidwinter]

Talk of Mandatory Coastal Evacs even before the track or intensity is finalised is scaremongering especially to those whomn may be reading this and have no clue about the weather or what GFS/ECMWF means.

We should really focus on Tuesdays event before getting ahead of ourselves.

Good points. I've been reading catch-up with eyes as big as saucers, then with eyes as big as plates, then with eyes as big as windmills...

...but I spent a fascinating evening once chatting to a couple who'd grown up and lived on and around the Essex Estuary islands that went under in the 1950s storm surge and they told me tons about what it's like now, and it sounded like they actually get Mandatory Evacs every so often and are totally used to it. This couple, one of them had an auntie who lived a few metres higher so the whole family just decamped to hers each time.

So even if an evacuation order does go out, it didn't sound like they thought it meant the end of The World and Fenris eating his tail and Goodbye To All That!

BleakMidwinter

[Liam J]

Potentially a very severe week of weather coming up, looks like Ireland, southern Scotland, northern England and central areas are going to be at the mercy of some extreme conditions. Gusts of 70-80Mph Tuesday atm and easily 80-90Mph if Friday came off as per GFS and ECM with a sub 950 hpa storm over Scotland.

Still don't have phone or internet back on from Thursday, so excuse grammer as using mobile!

[West Sussex Kate]

do you think if Friday comes off.. we could see mandatory evacuations along the coast. like there do for hurricanes in the usa?

anyone wants to sleep on our sofa your more than welcome!!

[Purplepixii]

Wow, an interesting read! I'll certainly be keeping an eye on this forum & forecasts over the next couple of days. I note the MO already has a warning out for Hampshire on Monday & Tuesday (although my faith in the MO is somewhat less than it used to be )

Slightly off-topic but I witnessed an amazing mackerel sky this evening, not seen one like it in years and there was a clearing in front of the moon giving it a lovely multi-coloured "halo" - what a fabulous thing, nature! :wub:

[spiritedstream]

Kinda really hoping that at least one of these storms gets downgraded or misses the UK.

whilst the Isle of Man didnt suffer as badly as we could have in respects of damage or lack of power or accidents (one tree down across a main road on the east coast), we have been suffering with lack of some supplies, imports from the Mainland and further a field.

in relation to this there has been much angst and agression towards both the Government and the only passenger/frieght company, which i dont believe is particularly helpful. i am afraid that these possible storms will raise the tension and angst of the public against both. if everyone plans well then the distruption could be minismised.

on a personal note i dont like driving in the high winds. will keep my eyes on the boards and met office both here and in the UK.

stay safe all.

[camiscool]

Southern England aswell?!

[wimblettben]

Southern England aswell?!

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

[bobbydog]

anyone wants to sleep on our sofa your more than welcome!!

anyone wants to sleep in our tree, you're more than welcome... we'll all probably end up in one anyway!!

[lfcdude]

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

If you read the post earlier... your wrong... do u watch points west? ian Ferguson responded to me with this on twitter... fergieweather Ian Fergusson

@johnpockos Tues storm threatens severe gales here; gusts 60mph+, but the Thurs-Fri event offers even more concern if it stays as per models

So we will get stronger winds then 40 lol

Edited December 10, 2011 by lfcdude

[NickR]

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

:blink:

You're welcome to it if you want it!

[Supercell]

Another one to hide in the cupboard please..

Certainly one to save. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. Central pressure equalling the lowest value ever recorded in the UK.

Wind increasing hurricane force 12 in many shipping areas and, locally, inland too.

[camiscool]

Wimblett were forecasted some of the strongest winds on tuesday. You seem to make assumptions with no evidence

[pyrotech]

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

Hmmm take it you were not around in late 80s and early 90s then.

Plus i think certainly the Southwest of England, Wales and far South Coast of England could easily be in the firing line fot Tuesdays storm, although yet to be determined exact track.

Then we have the Met office Warnings right accross to South East, Fax charts showing same scenario.

I will agree nothing is set in stone but all day you have said not going to effect southern England ????

Unless you can not read the charts - gusts to 60mph are more likely at this time for South coast.

[bobbydog]

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

as exciting as it may seem ben, (and i love a bit of extreme weather as much as anyone), people who have to suffer destruction to their property, or those who have to break the news to families of those who have died as a result of the storms, ( and people will die ) will not think of it as 'fun and games'....

[Jimmyh]

I don't think so unfourtunately.

Probably gusts of wind to no more then maybe 40mph now, and that is for both tuesdays and fridays storms.

Even when the atlantic is as active as it is now we still don't seem to be able to have the fun and games.

Seriously this whole track for tuesdays low is totally different. I think there will be widespread gales and it could get stronger. Everything is up in the air and i say that saying we will only get 40 mph is a massive understatement

[NickR]

as exciting as it may seem ben, (and i love a bit of extreme weather as much as anyone), people who have to suffer destruction to their property, or those who have to break the news to families of those who have died as a result of the storms, ( and people will die ) will not think of it as 'fun and games'....

Quite. I'm more worried about my house and surrounding trees than excited by the prospect of 100mph winds!

[Aaron]

I'm sure the relatives of the 2,000 elderly people who died during the August 2003 heatwave thought exactly the same thing..

If people want to get excited about a storm then let them, just like if people want to stifling heat and humidity, let them.

Edited December 10, 2011 by Aaron

[wimblettben]

Seriously this whole track for tuesdays low is totally different. I think there will be widespread gales and it could get stronger. Everything is up in the air and i say that saying we will only get 40 mph is a massive understatement

All I am saying is what the models show which is the lows having more of the same track as last thursdays storm. And obviously for northern areas winds will be much higher then 40mph.

[Jimmyh]

All I am saying is what the models show which is the lows having more of the same track as last thursdays storm. And obviously for northern areas winds will be much higher then 40mph.

No this one on monday tuesday has not got the same track as thursdays storm no way. Look at the whole pointers starting south west coming in over ireland wales and the midlands tracked far far further south than thursdays low

[legritter]

where ever these storms hit will be seriouse , so IF the storm centre takes the current forecast as of 1800 hrs today expect winds of atleast 60 miles an hour inland ,the end of the week ,probably now late thurs /friday is another problem we will have to wait till atleast late mon /tues for any half possible prediction coming off . and next weekend could throw up some sudden surprises . almost anywhere ,in reply to WIMBLETTBEN ,LOOKING AT ALL THE CHARTS AND READING BETWEEN THE LINES I PERSONALLY THINK PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DIRE SOMEWHERE ,HOPE ALL KEEP SAFE .

[Jimmyh]

where ever these storms hit will be seriouse , so IF the storm centre takes the current forecast as of 1800 hrs today expect winds of atleast 60 miles an hour inland ,the end of the week ,probably now late thurs /friday is another problem we will have to wait till atleast late mon /tues for any half possible prediction coming off . and next weekend could throw up some sudden surprises . almost anywhere ,in reply to WIMBLETTBEN ,LOOKING AT ALL THE CHARTS AND READING BETWEEN THE LINES I PERSONALLY THINK PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DIRE SOMEWHERE ,HOPE ALL KEEP SAFE .

couldnt agree more never experienced such a run of lows.extremly concerned about fridays low and it would only take a shift of a few hundred miles to put the whole of london in the firing line.

suffice to say that the whole of the country will hold its breath next week.