Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[bobbydog]

I don't think there weather models are the same but looking at the latest GFS the systems are certainly more further north then a few days ago.

I can only assume that they havn't taken the warning away because they don't use the GFS. I would have thought that the warnings for the the worst winds would be over Northern Ireland and Northern England going by that model. The Met Office seem to have our region covered in 50mph+ gusts but at the moment I don't see this happening.

no ben, the met office dont need to use the gfs, they have their own models. they are a little better informed than we are on this forum, so i wouldnt worry about what the gfs is showing, they do know their stuff.....

[lfcdude]

Believe you me Lauren, I wan't some more interesting whether for our neck of the woods as much as you do. In fact I get nervous every run hoping that the models continue to show proper windy whether.

I am just being a bit more realistic really to help lesson the annoyance if nothing happens.

Just sit back and wait for Ian Ferguson's forcast on points west our his twitter updates.. only time will tell.. meto also have us down for moderate sleet tuesday night... i think we should pray and hope for snow lol

[The PIT]

no ben, the met office dont need to use the gfs, they have their own models. they are a little better informed than we are on this forum, so i wouldnt worry about what the gfs is showing, they do know their stuff.....

Except for the storm that never was. If you remember that one.

[bobbydog]

Except for the storm that never was. If you remember that one.

well we all know how quickly things can change. point being though, the meto don't base their forecasts on one run of the gfs, and its unusual for them to issue warnings even 3 or 4 days in advance, unless they are very confident...

[Summer Sun]

Take a look at this map Tuesday is far worse in the South than the North

http://www.metoffice...recast/?tab=map

Click on Wind Gust and go to Tueday from 06:00

[The PIT]

well we all know how quickly things can change. point being though, the meto don't base their forecasts on one run of the gfs, and its unusual for them to issue warnings even 3 or 4 days in advance, unless they are very confident...

Except in that case not one single model showed a storm two runs of the GFS and one of the ECM on the day in question. A lot us stayed up that late that night and what did it show how good the reporting of current conditions by amateurs could be. Good laugh though and plenty of banter between us. Dunno if John Holmes ever got a reply as to why they issued the forecast.

I wonder now if the Met office would also look at wow and if that showed zero happening re-adjust the forecast?

[bobbydog]

Except in that case not one single model showed a storm two runs of the GFS and one of the ECM on the day in question. A lot us stayed up that late that night and what did it show how good the reporting of current conditions by amateurs could be. Good laugh though and plenty of banter between us. Dunno if John Holmes ever got a reply as to why they issued the forecast.

I wonder now if the Met office would also look at wow and if that showed zero happening re-adjust the forecast?

when was the 'storm' incident? i dont remember it

[Liam J]

Even the

UKMO

model takes the centre of the storm towards Northern Britain, 72 hours depression is west of Ireland, by 96 hours centered over NW Scotland.

Most if not all of the models agree that the UK will see a very signifcant storm Thursday/Friday, with some scary looking low pressure and wind speeds. not sure if this will survive a week in the model outputs as 6 days is a long time to keep such agreement on this storm. Odds on atm.

Expect changes over the coming days or start worrying! I don't want to have to ask Santa for a new roof!

Edited December 10, 2011 by Liam J

[wimblettben]

Even the

UKMO

model takes the centre of the storm towards Northern Britain, 72 hours depression is west of Ireland, by 96 hours centered over NW Scotland.

Most if not all of the models agree that the UK will see a very signifcant storm Thursday/Friday, with some scary looking low pressure and wind speeds. not sure if this will survive a week in the model outputs as 6 days is a long time to keep such agreement on this storm. Odds on atm.

Expect changes over the coming days or start worrying! I don't want to have to ask Santa for a new roof!

Is this just for Northern areas though or will everywhere become very windy based on current models.

Edited December 10, 2011 by wimblettben

[knightrider]

you might want to check out the latest Meto warnings - they have been updated very recently and they seem to think otherwise

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Meto warnings are rarely wrong, severe gale/storm force ohhh crap lol

[Summer Sun]

Is this just for Northern areas though or will everywhere become very windy based on current models.

Starting very unsettled and stormy with a risk of exceptionally strong winds and potentially damaging gusts, perhaps even across parts of the south, this risk peaking around Friday 16th. This will be coupled with heavy rain which may bring flooding to some western areas, with snow an additional risk, especially in the north.

From the met office

Edited December 10, 2011 by Gavin D

[wimblettben]

Does anyone know weather the south will get more stronger winds on fridays system compared to tuesdays if it does verify?

[knightrider]

Does anyone know weather the south will get more stronger winds on fridays system compared to tuesdays if it does verify?

I would say so yes, I live in Essex and already GFS has gusts in the region of 60-70mph for my region as compared to 55mph for Tuesdays low.

[vortex_liam]

Ben,they look simular. shame that that low is not further south.

[knightrider]

As is always the case the papers have got wind of this story (excuse the pun) and are blowing things out of proportion lol You see what I did there? For example the headline in The Sun today is Typhoon Tuesday!

[Liam J]

Meto warnings are rarely wrong, severe gale/storm force ohhh crap lol

GFS 12z consistent with previous runs and brings in a sub 950hpa depression towards NW britain during Tuesday, Fridays storm also developing as previous out in the Atlantic. going to be a rough ride!

Edited December 10, 2011 by Liam J

[knightrider]

There's a video on the BBC weather site now with Darren Bett about the 2 storms approaching this week, both have pottencial for damaging/disruptive winds and he hinted that Thursday/Friday's low could be the stronger of the 2 and although still some way off and it's track could change the charts showed that the 2nd storm was comming up from the southwest in almost exactly the same way as the 1987 storm so the far south would get hit hardest if that's the case, obviously the exact track and intensity of these deppressions hasn't been determined yet but it's certainly an interesting week of weather ahead as the warnings get updated. Cant wait for the Countryfile weekly forecast tommorow I think we'll have a much better idea of what to expect by then!

[Liam J]

There's a video on the BBC weather site now with Darren Bett about the 2 storms approaching this week, both have pottencial for damaging/disruptive winds and he hinted that Thursday/Friday's low could be the stronger of the 2 and although still some way off and it's track could change the charts showed that the 2nd storm was comming up from the southwest in almost exactly the same way as the 1987 storm so the far south would get hit hardest if that's the case, obviously the exact track and intensity of these deppressions hasn't been determined yet but it's certainly an interesting week of weather ahead as the warnings get updated. Cant wait for the Countryfile weekly forecast tommorow I think we'll have a much better idea of what to expect by then!

Fridays low is being progged to come up from the SW over Ireland towards Scotland, the great storm came up the channel I'm sure of it?

[sn0wman]

There's a video on the BBC weather site now with Darren Bett about the 2 storms approaching this week, both have pottencial for damaging/disruptive winds and he hinted that Thursday/Friday's low could be the stronger of

the 2 and although still some way off and it's track could change the charts showed that the 2nd storm was comming up from the southwest in almost exactly the same way as the 1987 storm so the far south would get hit hardest if that's the case, obviously the exact track and

intensity of these deppressions hasn't been determined yet but it's certainly an interesting week of weather ahead as the warnings get updated. Cant wait for the Countryfile weekly forecast tommorow I think we'll have a much better idea of what to expect by then!

The low on Thursday/Friday is forecast to cross the north of Scotland, not like the 1987 one which crossed the channel? Suppose it could change though.

[knightrider]

The low on Thursday/Friday is forecast to cross the north of Scotland, not like the 1987 one which crossed the channel? Suppose it could change though.

Didn't look that way to me on the Darrent Bett video, the tightest isorbars for both storms where on the lows southern flank across England and Wales!

[Snowyowl9]

Charts look like we`ve gone back to the stormy 1990`s

Some cold air tucked in behind with some wintry/snow showers behind much like this last storm where scotland took a battering and those wind turbines of which one toppled over and the other caught fire.

[pyrotech]

Perhaps they are refering to the interaction with the jet stream, for users on here we understand how the jet deepens a low but the general public do not.

I have no problem with papers warning about a storm that is seen as likely potential, as that can warn people and make them safer, it the headlines like a few months ago about exceptionally cold October and November with no science behind it that annoys me. They make them claims but i hear no mention of it now that it never happened.

It looks on latest GFS run that both storms will effect Northern Britain more than Southern areas, but obviously the exact track can change alot between now and tuesday, and more so for friday. Also i suppose that Scotland are a little more used to these events so 70knt gust in Scotland, is less damaging than 55knt in Southern UK where it less frequent and more likely to find something less secure.

The Jet is perfectly placed and very potent for these lows to become extreme. Think tomorrow night we will have a better idea of track and intensity.

Edited December 10, 2011 by pyrotech

[lorenzo]

It's just a beast of a system.No sign of models backing away..

[knightrider]

It's just a beast of a system.No sign of models backing away..

These models are totally differant to what the BBC are suggesting, all theirs suggest that this storm will be further south with Ireland, Wales and Central and Southern England being worst effected.

[Mark Bayley]

These models are totally differant to what the BBC are suggesting, all theirs suggest that this storm will be further south with Ireland, Wales and Central and Southern England being worst effected.

The UKMO isn't, nor is is NOGAPS (which tbh, isn't the best of models...). Of the 12z suite so far, it is the GFS that places the low furthest north. Will be interesting follow over the coming days!